Tatamy
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About Tatamy
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Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC / Skywarn Spotter
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September 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread
Tatamy replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
This is another view of this waterspout as taken from Cherry Grove. -
Just one - and he has already done it with a different storm... LOL
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I was referring to a specific community there and no there is no absolute certainty with Dorian.
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Florida yes - NC is still to be determined.
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I have skin in the game in this one. I have family in Ormond Beach FL (near Daytona) and Morehead City, NC. I have lost count of the number of times that model runs have shown direct hits on these communities over the past few days.
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18z GFS running. Track looks about the same as the 12z run. It is 10mb deeper at hr 48 but 2mb greater than the 12z prog at hr 72.
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It looks like Josh is going to be right in the center of the eye if Dorian maintains its current heading.
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06z runs of the HMON/HWRF continue the OTS theme with the track insofar as Florida goes. Both models bring it very close to the NC coast at the end of this run.
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Technically it is when the center of the eye comes ashore.
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18z HWRF has the western eyewall coming ashore at Titusville at 102 hours. Pressure 952mb. This is still well east of the 12z run but much worse for the NE Florida coast.
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18z HMON is OTS as far as Florida is concerned this run with just some gales along the NE coast.
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Icon is on the south/ west edge of the guidance envelope at this time.
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18z HWRF is moving towards the NW from a position about 40 miles east of Melbourne at 90 hours. Both of the 18z HMON/HWRF are 40 to 60 miles to the north and east of the 12z runs.
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18z HMON has already made the turn to the NNW and moving on that heading about 75 miles offshore.
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Tatamy changed their profile photo
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18z Icon has landfall Delray Beach 0z 9/3 962 mb
