Tatamy

The NAM has a big time warm nose at 750 mb at 84 hours at 12z just to the south and west of the city.

Look at the temps at 700mb and 850mb. It gives a different picture of the event precip wise. Be sure to look at 96 and 102 hours.

We do need to watch the position of the 850 mb low on the Euro AI. These screenshots are from 12z and 18z. It’s getting further north and that will act to promote mid level warming.

18z Euro has a front end thump of 7-10” for coastal areas before going to a lighter wintry mix. Inland areas get 10-15”+. The main feature is SLP that is tucked into the Delmarva and southern NJ coast. This is still a significant storm for the area.

No mixing issues shown on this model in the NY Metro area.

That’s nuts. I don’t want five feet of snow in my neighborhood.

There’s actually a burst of snow at the end.

FWIW the CMC has a history of being on the north side of the guidance at this stage.

Ukie is a much different evolution as compared to 0Z. It does mix with a little sleet but is still a big hit.

The NAM can probably barely contain its excitement over being able to work that warm nose in another day or so.

Huge run on the 06z EPS mean as well.

Euro AI is a big hit across the area.

Definitely precip issues with the Ukie for at least part of the area.

Agree. The pictured event took place with temperatures between 28 and 30. It caused widespread power outages

Your comment is not correct. These photos were taken on January 14th, 1978 at East Northport on Long Island. Heavy rain fell most of the night with below freezing temperatures resulting in this severe ice storm.