crossbowftw3

My own digging through model evidence makes me think something closer to 4/24/10 or Veteran's Day 2002. which wouldn't be 4/27 bad but still plenty bad on its own.

It's certainly very puzzling. I'm also agreeing based on early guesswork that we're seeing EF3 damage but how did this car get so terribly mangled? That'd be a sign of EF4 winds.

This car though...

This threat is still very much in play. That complex is weakening and clearing is happening behind it.

If they go high risk if not by 0600 then almost certainly by 1630, multiple precluding factors still at hand

Pure eye candy sounding

Likely tons of discussions happening now at SPC hence why it's late.

I would guess the Warm Front stalls within a 10-20 mile radius (+-) of Chicago metro. Even if the front gets hung up everything south of that is primed and ready.

That they are. This one seems a bit less obvious than 5/20 at first but seems more probable to verify. Do they go high? It still boils down to what kind of boundaries morning convection leaves/how fast atmosphere recovers.

HRRR STP values give me flashbacks

The HRRR greatly oversold 5/20 so YMMV

Wouldn't shock me if SPC goes high and/or expands that MDT area. All going to be dependent on morning convection.

Some pretty impressive parameters setting up tomorrow. Regional outbreak with multiple strong tornadoes seems like a solid bet.

Sleet/rain mix

I'm about 800' in the southern Catskills. Round 1 for us is wrapping up, and at my elevation I'm expecting to warm up to rain/mixing by afternoon. Good luck up there.