crossbowftw3

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About crossbowftw3

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KBGM
  • Location:
    Catskills NY

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  1. I'll take the first option if it means a much more manageable storm, as it's looking like up here further inland.
  2. Wind Advisory URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 314 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 NYZ062-PAZ048-041915- /O.NEW.KBGM.WI.Y.0010.200804T1600Z-200805T0300Z/ Sullivan-Pike- Including the cities of Monticello and Milford 314 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Pike county. In New York, Sullivan county. * WHEN...From noon to 11 PM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$
  3. For us inland folks we aren't looking for maybe anything more than gusts 20-40, which I think he is in the same boat I am. You guys on the coasts will much more likely see gusts 40-60; definitely someone getting a gust to 80 in cells that mix down. Soundings do seem to be well mixed east of the city.
  4. Only 77/70 in the Catskills with the front already well on its way
  5. Up here in the Catskills it's only 77/70 with the front already well on its way. Difference of 10 degrees between my house here and NYC already. Gonna fuel some decent storms for you guys in the metro I think.
  6. Up here in the Catskills it's looking like most of this misses to my south but at the same time, the developing MCS looks good. Feeding into the instability quite well
  7. Yeah, last year's event had that 15 hatched tornado/45 hail but here its just a 15 hail (for early stage storms) and a large 5% tornado; thinking early storms could indeed have that chance for a strong tornado or two before things grow upscale, likely within 2-3 hours of what I think should be rather rapid CI
  8. DCAPES 1200-1300 as well, strong shear profiles, it's gonna look last July 19th all over again
  9. I sense a PDS Severe Watch across the UMW later...7000 SBCAPE pooling across SE ND already 86/81 at KGWR with is co-located with the 7000 CAPE
  10. Rather concerning wording at 1630- 7000 SBCAPE pooling in ND already https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
  11. 1630 outlook further expands the moderate risk into NW Wisconsin, with rather concerning wording at hand. 7000 SBCAPE pooling in SE ND already. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
  12. Meanwhile up here in Sullivan rain continues but our turn for tapering off appears to be occurring now
  13. Probably comes down to how much instability builds in between bands of showers
  14. Hoping for anything up here in Sullivan with this system, we need the rain up here inland
  15. That line just went through here in Sullivan, missed the strong winds but it poured buckets for a solid 20 minutes. It could hold well for a few more hours before weakening some...maybe strengthen just a tad more?