crossbowftw3

Line rolling through my backyard now, definitely not performing up to spec with maybe some 30-40 MPH gusts here just a few minutes ago. Sky is also quickly brightening again in advance of the bigger wave of showers.

A done deal….now time to scream into oblivion and hope somebody can hear me scream

Heaviest showers finally moving off from here. Winds are picking up somewhat so the front very much is nearby.

Power went off for about 30 seconds just a few minutes ago. Welcome to fall.

Rain has commenced in earnest, although I still hold the belief that the heaviest rains might only really fall over a period of about the next 6 or so hours here. 72/69

All things considered it has genuinely been dry for the most part since then, and we go right back to being dry for a good chunk of this next week. Why not give the grass a little drink?

Already seeing some showers here on and off, 70/68. Aside from the severe threat this looks like a standard sustained 15G25-30 type of fall event with 1-3” of rain as the standard which is to say….blah.

Newest day 1 outlook shifts everything north, as I expected it to. I had a feeling the slight risk being so far south was so overdone with every successive HRRR nudging further north.

Leveled off with a final storm total of around 5”, which pretty much makes Ida surpass Isaias as the most rain I’ve seen from a TC since Irene

I’m in the 4” bracket in Sullivan, rain intensity (which was never really high all day) is beginning to lighten up a tad, with the back edge quite possibly making it here within the next 6 hours.

And we have also largely avoided the severe threat by being on the more stable side of the storm, have been just a constant steady stream of moderate rain all day long.

Being nearby in adjacent SENY I can verify—4” and counting, likely seeing 6+ here.

It’s definitely a good thing that: A. It’ll largely be done by overnight B. the next four or so days look to be high and dry, and very comfortable at that

Have more than likely eclipsed 4” at this point if the Beach Lake obs can be extrapolated to my house in Narrowsburg given the close proximity, stay safe everyone in CNJ

Have been just so entrenched on the stable side of this thing all day, temperature has only fluctuated between 63 and 65 and is now back at 63.