binbisso

Today's teles and MJO forecast look better than recent days they now have the MJO going into phase 7 And while the AO/NAO trend positive they look to bring it back to neutral. I know Snowman 19 feels and I agree with him that the MJO will have a tough time getting into favorable phases, however I do think that with The colder temps now established in regions 3 and 1.2 we have a chance to get convection over or near the date line. We shall see

A -epo Will usually dump the cold into the central US. Storm track would be to our West with lots of cutters especially with no nao help. It's not the end all be all for Winter forecast.

Totally agree. So far the mjo standing wave is weak and other factors seem to be driving the pattern. many forecasted a warm November even up to a week ago and now looks like November will be solidly below normal Probably negative one to negative 2 for CPK. 1st negative 10 departure on Tuesday? More cold coming next weekend.

Yeah I realized I read too much into it that's why I edited it. Thanks for your response enjoy reading your Winter forecast each year

Using euro MJO guidance it doesn't look to progress out of the COD Until early December when it comes out in either 6 or 7. Assuming it's correct I would hope it would continue to progress into 8 by latter half of December which would be great timing. As far as the strat you can have it. if we're relying on an SSW to save Winter count me out half the time they don't even favor us. Not implying you favor that just stating how I feel. Edit: just keep the spv weak. I'll roll the dice with that

Am I missing something here. the MJO is basically in the COD through early December. granted it will be between phases 4 and 6 but will it have any influence on the weather pattern during this time frame? I don't think so. I think other factors will play a bigger role in determining our our sensible weather through at least early to mid December.

GEPS also corrected colder day 10+. Back to a western ridge. Looking at the gfs individual members about 12 have an inch or more of snow for nyc on north thru turkey day. Probably not happening but can't be ruled out

If guidance is remotely correct we're going to be solidly below normal by the 20th. I don't see most of the area above normal for November except for Newark of course. Sorry had to throw that in there lol

Yup. Classic coupled Nina. Fast start. Cold Canada.

It looks like the GEFS Corrected towards the EPS around day 9. Actually the G EFS has below normal 850's day 9th through the end of the run. also today's operational euro has some mighty cold air in Canada day 9 and 10 I know it's the operational but its ensembles usually follow suit. Models usually have a tough time during the fall with long range forecasts so take with a grain of salt.

Ok impact of climate change. Warmer temps for sure But 15 of the last 20 years have had normal or above normal snowfall. And I disagree about Winter forecaster's most are not biased at all. we know the few who are. listen to them at your own peril.

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202110311046-KOKX-NOUS41-PNSOKX I'll be there and donate hedge cutters, glasses and a yard stick. Edit: It's a virtual ceremony so may have to send package in the mail

the last few model cycles look to bring in some pretty cold air next week. 1st cold front Monday with slightly below normal temps the next one around the 4th or 5th looks pretty impressive could be negative 10 to 15 departures. Maybe 1st freeze for many areas away from the coast. Let's see if it holds

@donsutherland1 in your post above you have Nino 1.2 at slightly positive right now however when I look at tropical tidbits ocean analysis it's showing Nino 1.2 at -.8. Am I reading it wrong or is there another site with more accurate analysis? Edit. Nino 1.2 has also been negative for the last 6 weeks on tropical tidbits site

Yup. Even going forward the temperatures look to be near normal through the 1st half of November if long range guidance and weekly's are correct. Negative 10 departures do us no good until we get late November and onward. And who likes 48ﾟ and rain the first half of November.