binbisso

With regards to the big phased system next week which is still 6 or 7 days out. We need either a later phase further east or better yet miss the phase with the southern stream and see if the northern stream can dive under us and form a Coastal low south of Long Island. That's probably our best chance at seeing snow here in the Northeast with this system

Yeah most Mets and others keep saying that this Nina is coupled with the atmosphere but obviously that is not the case as we typically would have a colder than normal November and December. Last year we had a Nino but November and most of December played out like a nina. clearly something's up between enso and the atmosphere. if this map plays out That's a classic nino positive PNA negative N A O Negative a o.

A+ PNA is now showing up across guidance as we head towards December and it looks to continue through the first half of the month. The GEFS even show signs of Greenland blocking and it's very extended range. Maybe we can finally get some short waves to track underneath us and as we head into December we would not need well below normal temperatures to get some kind of measurable snow which seems to have been missing from December for a long time now

I also lost an aunt to covid a month ago. My moms sister. My cousin got it from her boyfriend who probably got it at school ( teaches special need kids) and gave it to both her parents.

I took my mom out in late march. She had a stroke and heart valve issue in February. She went to two nursing homes/ rehab after hospital stay. She is now living with me. The worst part was not being able to see her. Yea it really is sickening. Need to get the vaccine to these vulnerable people asap even with the unknown about potential side effects. In these cases its probably worth the risk.

From a tropical forcing perspective, how might this La Niña differ from the norm? 2020-21 is predicted to have more activity over the Indian Ocean and less over the Maritime Continent. Ben noll. If this is true then one two and three would be more likely than four five and six this winter but we shall see

Blue Wave I have heard that the atmosphere is currently coupled with the la nina but according to your post above it is not. Do you think this winter will not behave as a typical moderate to Strong La Nina?

It looks like the mjo heading into phase 8 in early November could mute the warm-up or at least the warm-up won't last as long as guidance suggest. I'm hearing that the mjo may frequently be in Phase 8 1 and 2 this winter instead of the maritime continent don't know if it's going to be a big player this year with such a strong La Nina

The mjo in Phase 5 for most of October didn't have the usual outcome here in the Northeast which is usually much below-normal temperatures. We will finish solidly about normal throughout the region

Have sleet mixing in with the rain here in Mount Vernon with a temperature of 37 degrees

That's pretty amazing how one month can be consistently warmer then normal for so long what's interesting when looking at the departures, this October should be very close to 2010 when looking at the current long-range guidance. 2010 also had an amplified mjo in Phase 5 as you stated in the other thread and it looks quite similar.

After a warm wet week next week That's a pretty cold look on the ensembles today starting around day 9 going through the end of their runs. The mjo looks to get Amplified in Phase 4 and Phase 5 around that time and I believe it's a colder phase for the Northeast during October I could be wrong though. Any Merit to a colder second half of October?

70° here after hitting a high of 71 and windy

Thanks. Looks like we will be making a road trip there. My daughter wants to go now. I want to go when there's snow in the forecast.