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Everything posted by binbisso

  1. Today's teles and MJO forecast look better than recent days they now have the MJO going into phase 7 And while the AO/NAO trend positive they look to bring it back to neutral. I know Snowman 19 feels and I agree with him that the MJO will have a tough time getting into favorable phases, however I do think that with The colder temps now established in regions 3 and 1.2 we have a chance to get convection over or near the date line. We shall see
  2. A -epo Will usually dump the cold into the central US. Storm track would be to our West with lots of cutters especially with no nao help. It's not the end all be all for Winter forecast.
  3. Totally agree. So far the mjo standing wave is weak and other factors seem to be driving the pattern. many forecasted a warm November even up to a week ago and now looks like November will be solidly below normal Probably negative one to negative 2 for CPK. 1st negative 10 departure on Tuesday? More cold coming next weekend.
  4. Yeah I realized I read too much into it that's why I edited it. Thanks for your response enjoy reading your Winter forecast each year
  5. Using euro MJO guidance it doesn't look to progress out of the COD Until early December when it comes out in either 6 or 7. Assuming it's correct I would hope it would continue to progress into 8 by latter half of December which would be great timing. As far as the strat you can have it. if we're relying on an SSW to save Winter count me out half the time they don't even favor us. Not implying you favor that just stating how I feel. Edit: just keep the spv weak. I'll roll the dice with that
  6. Am I missing something here. the MJO is basically in the COD through early December. granted it will be between phases 4 and 6 but will it have any influence on the weather pattern during this time frame? I don't think so. I think other factors will play a bigger role in determining our our sensible weather through at least early to mid December.
  7. GEPS also corrected colder day 10+. Back to a western ridge. Looking at the gfs individual members about 12 have an inch or more of snow for nyc on north thru turkey day. Probably not happening but can't be ruled out
  8. If guidance is remotely correct we're going to be solidly below normal by the 20th. I don't see most of the area above normal for November except for Newark of course. Sorry had to throw that in there lol
  9. Yup. Classic coupled Nina. Fast start. Cold Canada.
  10. It looks like the GEFS Corrected towards the EPS around day 9. Actually the G EFS has below normal 850's day 9th through the end of the run. also today's operational euro has some mighty cold air in Canada day 9 and 10 I know it's the operational but its ensembles usually follow suit. Models usually have a tough time during the fall with long range forecasts so take with a grain of salt.
  11. Ok impact of climate change. Warmer temps for sure But 15 of the last 20 years have had normal or above normal snowfall. And I disagree about Winter forecaster's most are not biased at all. we know the few who are. listen to them at your own peril.
  12. https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202110311046-KOKX-NOUS41-PNSOKX I'll be there and donate hedge cutters, glasses and a yard stick. Edit: It's a virtual ceremony so may have to send package in the mail
  13. the last few model cycles look to bring in some pretty cold air next week. 1st cold front Monday with slightly below normal temps the next one around the 4th or 5th looks pretty impressive could be negative 10 to 15 departures. Maybe 1st freeze for many areas away from the coast. Let's see if it holds
  14. @donsutherland1 in your post above you have Nino 1.2 at slightly positive right now however when I look at tropical tidbits ocean analysis it's showing Nino 1.2 at -.8. Am I reading it wrong or is there another site with more accurate analysis? Edit. Nino 1.2 has also been negative for the last 6 weeks on tropical tidbits site
  15. Yup. Even going forward the temperatures look to be near normal through the 1st half of November if long range guidance and weekly's are correct. Negative 10 departures do us no good until we get late November and onward. And who likes 48゚ and rain the first half of November.
  16. I'm a winter weather lover however We are far from Winter. You're crazy if you haven't loved the weather the last 6 weeks. highs in the seventies and lows around 60 perfect. it could stay this way till Thanksgiving for all I care then we can flip
  17. That is probably true 30 plus years ago But in our new sub tropical climate as some posters here have pointed out Warmer and wetter seems more likely. We could have a dry month or even a dry year In certain patterns but that's probably more the exception than the rule going forward
  18. Yes. As bluewave said yesterday, today is going to have ++ min departures. The splits today at Newark is 74 and 70 in New York City 73 and 67. Yesterday it was upper seventies and low eighties for highs and mid fifties for Lows. Either way you slice it the weather is very comfortable temperature wise
  19. Looks like Early season snowfall for the West. places like Denver even Seattle and the Portland area. I guess nature has to balance herself out. it's so warm here it's going to be unseasonably cold out West. Edit: It looks like the mountains just East of Portland and Seattle will have their 1st snowfall this week
  20. What a fantastic stretch of weather Coming up the 1st half of October temp wise. Seventies by day around 60゚ at night you can still wear shorts and do any outdoor activity do not have to put on the AC or the heater. I'll take this any October let it last through mid November. Obviously the days it rains it will be cooler but it will not rain every day the 1st half of October
  21. Except it will be 80゚ over forky's house and Newark. While it's 60's in Philly nyc and Boston.lol
  22. true but conversely a 594dm Ridge over the northeast in mid September Should have much warmer temperatures than in the mid to upper seventies for most of the region
  23. Looks like we start September-3* for 1st week and maybe beyond. Forecast high for cpk are 72,74 74,76,79 and 81 for labor day followed by what looks to be a nice cool shot next week. Normal highs are still around 80*.
  24. Wind very lite today. No down slope heating. Temps probably Max in the low nineties Today with heat index right around actual temperature
  25. Yes! 86* dp 59. I thought we were in for high dew points. Very comfortable out
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