beavis1729

18z GFS doubles down. Not expecting it to verify this cold, but crazy to see this on a day 6-7 map.

Time for a separate thread...I'll start with madwx's comments from the long range thread, and a Day 7 Euro prog. The cold arrives sooner on the GFS, and is more intense. ---------- Euro in agreement with cold starting Friday after the EOW system with the core of the coldest temps on Sunday thru Tuesday with some slight moderation after that. Some relevant record mins and low maxes for the period at MSN 5 -21 1936 -8 1895 6 -19 1977 -5 1875 7 -21 1875 -2 1893 8 -22 1899 -7 1875 9 -28 1899 -15 1899 10 -25 1899 -5 1899 11 -22 1885 -6 1899 Notable that all those 1899 dates are during the great Arctic outbreak where ice floes came out of the mouth of the Mississippi and New Orleans got down to their all time record of 6.

18z GFS with even colder wind chills into far NW IL. This is probably among the top 5 coldest modeled wind chills that I've ever seen in the state. Not putting too much stock in these extremes yet, due to the well-known GFS cold bias at range...and of course it's still 7 days out. And some -70s on the map northern Manitoba...just a bit chilly. 12z GEM and 18z GFS v16 are actually starting to show wind chills worthy of advisory/warning criteria...but it's mainly -35 to -45 in the coldest areas instead of -50s. Either way, I think the probability of a significant arctic outbreak is increasing. We'll see if it ends up being near record breaking (say 30+ degrees below normal), or just a run of the mill cold snap (say 20-30 degrees below normal). Today is the anniversary of the 2019 cold snap, where Rockford's -31 broke its all time record low by 4 degrees...with a period of record 100+ years.

My brother lives in Mequon, probably right by there. He reported similar (10”), with a 19” depth.

Bring it...what can go wrong with an op and non-v16 GFS prog 11 days away??

Good snowfall with this storm...then preserve some/all snowpack until an arctic outbreak like some GFS progs have been showing...

3 here, coldest of the season. Some others...although it could have dropped lower intra-hour 6-7 AM. I think all are the coldest of the season, except ORD was also 8 on Christmas morning. ARR -3 RFD 0 DPA 2 DKB 2 JOT 6 ORD 8

I infiltrated Chicago Storm's mind when he moved to Naperville. Sneak attack.

With the usual caveats on a 16-day GFS map...it's interesting that Chicago's daily low temp records during the entire period from Feb. 7-25 (with one exception*) are all from 1936 or earlier...and most were from the 1800s or very early 1900s. Probably due to the recent UHI and the colder overall climate back then, which allowed snow cover/depth to generally persist further into February both here and in the source region. *Record low of -8 on 2/19/2015

Yep, with a slight edit. We barely hung on imby, until the current snowfall...and it was mainly in neighborhoods and sheltered areas. The more urbanized areas and busier streets had a lot of bare spots. I'm about 25 miles south of the WI border, as the crow flies.

That's a great paper. I was only 4 years old and lived in KC at the time...would have been amazing to experience. Yeah...I believe Antioch, IL had 105.6" of snow, with a peak depth of 38" and around 115 consecutive days of 1"+ depth.

Yeah, sucks. At one point it looked like a 2-3” snowfall. Maybe a silver lining is that this precursor wave helped moisten the column for the upcoming storm. Devil’s advocate says that the models should already be accounting for this, yet they are still trending weaker.

All good. I do think it can come across as a bit selfish when areas near I-80 and IKK may unfortunately miss out on the storm entirely...and at the same time you and I are concerned about not getting 6"+. I think that's what some other posters are alluding to. Mimilliman and baum are good posters, as are most here. It's not personal.

Yep, agree overall. With that said, I think it's natural to be on edge and worry before the storm...thinking more about what could go wrong vs. what is likely to occur. For northern LOT specifically...a couple days ago it looked like the initial/separate WAA snow tonight would be 2-3", now it may only be a dusting. So, that doesn't help. And, although I know op runs should be taken with a grain of salt at range, there were a couple of op Euro runs showing close to 2 feet in northern LOT...which now is nowhere to be found. It's all relative. Plus, if the storm really does weaken/shear out due to the effects of the block, it's likely to take a bit more southern route...which could favor the heart of the city instead of the northern areas. And, even if lake enhancement does occur, it may tend to favor the lakeside counties instead of McHenry and further west. Again - all else being equal, I think there are still concerns in northern LOT, especially away from the lake...just like there are (different) concerns elsewhere in LOT and northern IN and into MI. That's why we need a true spread-the-wealth storm...so that everyone shares in the fun. I initially thought this storm might be it...but it appears to be transitioning to a narrow swath of heavier snowfall for a lucky few. And by heaviest, I mean 10"+. Not meant to complain...just human nature to be on edge a bit, given the snow drought that many of us have experienced over the last 2-3 years.

ding ding ding...regardless of where the exact swath of heavy snow sets up, there are fewer clunker members than before. Not completely eliminated, but progress. And the map is 10:1 ratios. If the 18z and 0z Euro ensembles follow suit, I think we're in business.

Good to see the mean increasing...but it's still under 4". Need to move in the right direction quickly, and eliminate the non-event plumes. Not trying to be a debbie, but hard to shake the fact that a complete non-event is still a possibility.

Good to know that some individual members are 10"+. But we really need to get rid of the clunker ensemble outcomes...needs to happen ASAP. Because there are so many non-event ensemble members, the mean only shows a 3-5" snowfall over much of the metro for the main show...as there's 1-2" included from the WAA snow on Sunday morning). Ugh...

RE: track, agree...but good reason to be disappointed on max amounts. Euro op runs from 24-36 hours ago were showing 20+" Kuchera in far SE WI/far NE IL...and now the max Euro Kuchera in IL/WI is only 10-12". Of course the 20"+ may have been unrealistic to begin with...but kind of disappointing that the jackpot in IL/WI (wherever it ends up) has much lower amounts than before.

That sounds like interesting work, and very valuable - good for you! Mentioned it in another post - I have a met degree but unfortunately gave up on forecasting out of school. Forecasting didn't come naturally to me, so I threw in the towel prematurely instead of putting the extra effort in. And I was only 21 when I graduated, and was afraid to move somewhere else and be open to the unknown, far away from home. Never really had a good sense at the time of what job opportunities existed in meteorology, outside of forecasting. Was scared to death of being on TV, so never bothered even looking into it. Had a few odd jobs that were weather-related right after graduating...but then ended up getting an MS in math, and (ironically) taught for a few years...and ended up being very comfortable speaking in front of the camera/other people. Life is funny that way, I guess. Now work in insurance. But meteorology has always been my passion, especially winter weather (big surprise, I know).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cayambe_(volcano)

Borrowed from the TN forum... Eric Webb @webberweather · 6h This 10-15 day hemispheric-scale pattern is teetering on a knife's edge between total dumpster fire & an ice box in the CONUS during early Feb w/ basically no room for anything in between.

Good info. Here's the kicker - even in one of Chicago's best winters (2013-14), there were only 83 days with 1" of snow cover. MSP averages 100 days per winter. This is a perfect summary of why I'd be satisfied with MSP's winter climo. P.S. In January 2014, ORD had 33.7" of snow, but the net change in snow depth during the month was zero (!). On 1/1/2014, snow depth was 3"...and on 1/31/2014 it was also 3". And, on top of that, the month was 8.1F below normal. This is why our climo is so frustrating. Even when we're 8 degrees below normal during the coldest month of the year, and receive about 3x the normal snowfall, we can't gain snowpack month-on-month. Just too many thaws. It's really hard to comprehend - I had to triple-check the #'s because it seems so hard to believe. Before everyone jumps on me again...I'm not saying 2013-14 was a bad winter. But it illustrates the crazy gradient in the winter feel between MSP and ORD.

Yep. I was teaching at NIU at the time...just a winter wonderland all month. Extremely cold too, with all of the snow cover.