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About madwx

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    Madison, Wi

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  1. Lol still not understanding the difference between percent and ratio. I just used that same chart to prove what was wrong with the numbers. Look on the left side. Infection fatality ratio.
  2. see my post above with the actual CDC data. Fox News was using bad math
  3. classic misinterpretation of the percentage or as some people like to say today, fake news. The actual data is in a ratio but this mainstream media org just slapped a percent at the end instead of moving the decimal two places to the right like you should when converting from a ratio to a percent. so it's really .003% for 0-19, 0.02% from 20-49, 0.5% for 50-69 and 5.4% for 70+.
  4. i think it takes awhile to load. so it might be many hours before 384-840 come in
  5. hit 90 in parts of central Iowa. Wonder if some places further east can hit that tomorrow.
  6. Living in the upper midwest, especially if I had darker skin I would be taking daily vitamin D supplements. I'm as pale as a ghost but I'm still taking daily vitamin D.
  7. everything in the house gets a pinkish hue around 5 each night. pretty cool
  8. An update on future risks now that we have Vicki) 1. The area of disturbed weather in the SW Gulf of Mexico has gotten more convectively active. Euro ensembles more bullish on this system as it meanders through the southern Gulf over the next week. 2. The latest wave to come off Africa looks fairly robust and slow development should occur as it moves across the Atlantic at a fairly low latitude. 3. Have to watch the area off the SE coast for tail end development from the cold front that will kick Sally out. Relative model consensus on an area of low pressure developing and this is a climatologically favored area. 4. Another wave will be coming off Africa later this week, though this one looks to be at a higher latitude so not sure how much potential for development there will be. 5. Very long range (post 9/21) but there is a chance for something out of the CAG off the coast of Nicaragua/Honduras.
  9. Looks like this is a hurricane based on recon. 78kt flight level winds on the west side
  10. this is TD 20 now. forecast to get to 80 kts by days 4 and 5.
  11. Most likely Wilfred or a greek name. Vicky will probably go to 97L as it heads NW from the Cabo Verde islands
  12. In addition to the 5 active areas in the atlantic right now(Paulette, Rene, TD 19, 95L in the central Atlantic and the recently added 97L in the far eastern Atlantic) there are a few more areas to keep an eye on. 1. A spin in the Gulf of Mexico S of New Orleans: This area is highlighted by the NHC and it will slowly move SW in the Gulf over the next few days. 2. An area of convection in the SW Gulf of Mexico: not much of anything at the surface but convection has been festering E of Veracruz for at least the past day now. 3. The Euro Ensembles are fairly consistent with a low latitude wave moving off of the Africa coast in the next couple days. 4. Any spinups along the ITCZ, especially just east of the Leeward Islands though this is much more of a long shot. And if that wasn't enough, the Euro Ensembles are already showing at least another wave or 2 moving off of Africa after this weekend.
  13. the LLC is not aligned with the MLC, if the surface vortex realigns with the mid levels then this has a good potential to overperform with strength. Right now there are no signs of that happening though
  14. 2007-08 looks like a good analog. Especially if La Nina gets a little stronger than progged. Would take that winter and following severe weather season