I’m growing accustomed to these nickels and dimes and strangely fond of them. Models, GFS especially, will advertise it a week out, then it trends away only to show back up the night before. .
Major sublimation today in full sun. Also some direct good old fashioned melting from the sun. As the clouds roll in there will be some refreezing. Things might be dicey on Monday morning after the arctic front.
Patterns persists despite what people see on an ensemble three weeks out and mumbo jumbo about changing trough positions. To top things off the baroclinicity south of us will draw anything synoptic to those areas. It’s all nickel and dime till springtime.