beavis1729

Not directed at you…but I have always found it interesting that a lot of people on this forum (in various regions) want snow, but not cold. I would understand this among the general public, but it’s strange on this forum since most people here look forward to winter. But to me, you can’t really have a meaningful winter season (landscape, frozen ponds, reliable snow cover, etc.) without cold. Actual liquid precip averages during the cold season really don’t matter that much in the end. I’m thinking of making a post in the Lakes/OV forum about the concept of “sacred” winter days. In other words, if you were dropped into a town on a specific calendar date (say Feb 5th), would you be able to count on the fact that it would look and feel like winter? This means a 90% chance of a high temp of 35F or lower AND 2”+ snow cover on a specific date. No anxiety about the weather pattern being a certain way, etc.; you just know it will be wintry outside, in line with what it’s supposed to be because the calendar says it’s winter! Sure, you could have an anomalous pattern every so often (like March 2012)…which is why I am only using a 90% threshold instead of 100%. Sadly, nearly all non-mountainous locations in the lower 48 south of 44N have zero sacred winter calendar dates! There is a huge gradient of this metric across the upper Midwest…as far northern MN probably has close to 100 sacred winter calendar dates…whereas southern WI has zero. For example - in Chicago, the coldest calendar dates in the year (mid-Jan) only have a 65% chance of a high temp 35F or colder. Adding the 2” snow cover condition reduces the % even more. So, it falls well short of the 90% threshold. And in early Feb, temps start warming up, even as there’s a somewhat higher chance of 2” snow cover…but then we just run out of time as the winter season fades away later in February. For a winter lover (not just individual storms, but the tenor of the season) living in areas with more plentiful job prospects, it’s difficult and sad to accept. I like seasons in seasons - we can always count on July and August (at a minimum) to be summerlike, but we can’t count on any dates in winter to be winter-like. And highs in the 30s and 40s with bare ground isn’t winter, no matter what some believe.

This is a perfect AFD - from Grand Forks ND. It's good because they accept winter and that's just how it is - not like us in the tropics where everyone freaks out if wind chills are sub-zero or if there's a bit of snow. It's comical, really, how we overreact to the most minor wintry conditions down here...in winter. The best part is being excited about getting some relief, because wind chills are only in the -30s instead of the -40s. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 648 AM CST Wed Feb 23 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 645 AM CST Wed Feb 23 2022 Batch of high clouds exiting eastern ND into northern MN at 12z. Otherwise clear, temps -15 to -30F. Winds are pretty light and keeping most wind chills in the -30s instead of -40s. But not going to split hairs and will keep the WC warning out as winds should increase 1-3 kts after sunrise and temps slow to warm. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 242 AM CST Wed Feb 23 2022 A quiet short term period, which we haven't had in quite a while. High pressure will be moving slowly east and be over the area tonight into Thursday as winds continue to lighten. Cold airmass under the high will remain in place, though it will get slowly modified over the coming couple days. Winds early this morning are quite light over NE ND and NW MN (5 kts or less) and thus wind chills are not too extreme mostly -20s and -30s. As temps drop more thru daybreak still a chance they get into warning wind chill range, but overall not as bad as this time yesterday.

Doesn’t matter what people’s calls or forecasts are. Only the end result is important. I’d love for everyone on this board to forecast 2” on a storm sometime, and bust horribly…and we end up with a surprise 15”.

Verbatim, the 0z GFS had a max of 25” in McHenry County. 6z is only 10-15” there…and the max a bit further south is much less than 25”. All relative…

^ Great list Bo. For future reference, do you have a link to the source data? I can usually find UP snow depths pretty easily, but not seasonal snow totals. Hard to believe Iron Mountain’s snowfall has been so low…but still a ways to go in the season for them. Either way, good snow cover and cold up there.

Ugh. Why is everyone so excited to be done with winter…especially when we haven’t even had much of a winter here this season to begin with? It’s only 2/8. Do people want summer to be over by 8/8? It’s bad enough that I have to deal with anxiety about today’s 40F temps eating away at the modest snow cover…and desperately wishing for the sun to go away. But then it’s even worse that others are actively rooting for this, and excited about the sun angle and dampness/warmth in the air as the inevitable end of winter occurs. Fine - but can’t it wait until 2/28?? Winter is not supposed to be comfortable or feel nice. People are supposed to be crying and begging for warmth and relief from bitter cold and snow. Maybe we should all live in international falls for a winter or two, to experience what winter should actually be like.

A bit chilly in northern Alaska...Deadhorse had a wind chill of -84F at 9AM local time this morning (temp -51F, SW wind 14 mph). Yikes.

Yep, just realized that - edited my post to summarize 21z. And I agree it’s more about the trends with SREF plumes, not so much the actual numbers.

If I’m reading it right, the 21z plume mean is around 1.2” of liquid…and that’s only through 12z Thursday (hour 87).

GHD 1 was 2011, GHD 2 was 2015.

Interesting that the GEFS have a 6” mean all the way up to Kenosha. In this situation, though, the mean can be a bit deceptive. In other words, mean doesn’t equal “expected”. I’m guessing the vast majority of members show 0-2”, with a small # showing a wrapped up storm with 18”+…all leading to a mean of 6” in the end.

Welcome back sir.

You know I love my hyperbole, but this map is insane…February 1936 type stuff. Nice 1060 mb high dropping into the northern plains. Of course, all of the op GFS caveats apply.

Yeah...12z GFS shows 59F in Nashville and -42F in Grand Forks at 12z on 2/3.

More for entertainment than anything else...but last night's 00z GFS showed some brutally cold air in southern Saskatchewan in early Feb. That's a pretty sizeable area of temps in the -35 to -55 range. Obviously, the normal caveats apply since it's an op GFS run at 228 hours. Only pointing it out because I've never seen temps this low on a GFS prog before.

Yeah...Merrill itself (KRRL) hit -34. Minocqua -23, Wausau -20.

Yes sir...it's about time. Some low temps in N IL...pending any intra-hour drops. Coldest since 1/31/19. Very impressive in the normal cold/radiator spots: RPJ -23 ARR -20 RFD -16 FEP -16 DKB -14 SQI -13 Here -11 UGN -9 ORD -5

^ Yeah...as much as I truly respect LOT and our NWS forecasters, this winter's discussions from them seem to be hyper-focused on the tiniest of wintry weather threats...as if Chicagoland residents live in Atlanta and don't know how to handle winter. "Oh noze, we *may* get up to 1-2" of snow over the next 7 days, and temps may be below freezing for part of this time...we must sound the alarms!!!". More optimistically...it could just be that LOT is so bored with the wx here (and who can argue with that) - so, might as well elaborate on the most minor threats in AFDs because there's nothing else to talk about. I just got back from snowmobiling in northern WI this weekend - people there are legitimately pissed that the weather is so mild and tame...even though it was 20F with 8" of snow on the ground. It's like two different planets.

Might as well take the bait. The short version: There are three issues for winter lovers - (1) Our average snowfall is pathetic to begin with (2) Snowfall is not a good metric for winter lovers anyway; should use Snow Depth Days (SDDs) (3) In Detroit's case...along with any other areas near here who actually saw some snow between Nov 15-Dec 15...it was all gone by Christmas anyway. So, any snowfall before Christmas this year was just stat-padding, and not very meaningful. Once a snowpack begins after 12/1, it should stay. It can fluctuate up and down a bit when bigger storms or modest thaws occur...but it shouldn't go away completely. That's why it's so important to get decent snowfall amounts early in the season...say 11/20 through 12/10. Otherwise, you have to hope every single day remains in the 20s or colder in order to preserve what little is on the ground (even for me, that's a lot to ask for). There is a huge irony in all of this - our winter climo would be improved dramatically by a small increase in average snowfall (say up to 50"), with DJF average temps about 5F colder. Not asking for International Falls or the UP or Fairbanks, contrary to how many on this forum characterize things. Very simple - seasons in seasons. 90 days of consistent summer (Jun 10 - Sep 10 in NE IL due to lake influence), matched by 90 days of consistent winter. We have consistent summer every year, except maybe 1992 with Pinatubo; I don't wake up on August 10th or June 24th or July 8th and wonder if it will feel like summer that day. It's something you can count on. But we have only had consistent winter once (1978-79). Consistent winter means nearly all days (not necessarily 100%) during the 90-day period have high temps < 35F and at least 2" of snow cover. Again, nothing crazy. Many of you don't agree on this next point...but 2010-11 was infuriating to me because, as great as the GHD I storm was, the snow was all gone 2 weeks later. If GHD I occurred on March 1st instead of Feb 1st, that would be fine...but 22" of snow that falls on Feb 1st should remain on the ground for the rest of Feb, at a minimum. Even 12" should. Not saying the depth has to remain at 22"...but you just can't have 22" of snow melt in 2 weeks during met winter. For anyone who cares - I don't really enjoy participating on or viewing this sub-forum anymore...because everyone goes out of their way to make you feel guilty and defensive about loving winter. It really sucks. You don't want to hear the long version.

12z GEM shows all-time record-breaking cold next weekend in the west. Verbatim at Day 7 (12z 1/2/22): Las Vegas 12F Phoenix 15F San Francisco 24F San Diego 32F

I am talking about DJF (and mainly J), not just December. Sorry for not clarifying. Either way, even 2F masks the true situation on that map…and 2F is still a huge change over 30 years. Yes, some is UHI…but it has happened either way. And it doesn’t matter that 1961-90 was the coldest 30-year period. That is what I grew up with, so it’s my minimum expectation. My ire isn’t directed at you - it’s just out of frustration. At ORD, January normal temp used to be around 21F, now it’s near 25F, give or take. When you’re on the wrong side of the Midwest winter gradient like we are, every degree matters to retain snowpack.

^ As bad as that map is, it's actually understating the warmth...because DJF normal temps are so much higher now vs. 30 years ago. If you used 1961-1990 normals (which were 4F colder than 1991-2020 in Chicago, as an example), the map would look even more hideous. Back to my "time out" - I got so anxious and frustrated about this pattern, I had to step away for awhile. Not good for mental health.

I don’t intend to speak for everyone…but I think part of it is the simple desire for “seasons in seasons”, and the fact that the shortest days plus the holidays are in December. You know - Currier and Ives snowfalls, It’s a Wonderful Life winter scenes, etc. In JJA, you can always count on consistent summer-like weather. It would be nice to be able to count on consistent winter-like weather in DJF. Unfortunately, reality isn’t so kind. Of course everything is relative…but I live in far NE IL, and I get furious and anxious every year when we don’t start building a snowpack early in December, to take advantage of the low sun angle. I actually have to step away from my love of winter for awhile each year, because I get so worked up about it. We get good stretches of cold and snow each winter, but not consistent enough like 45N or north in the Midwest and Plains. As I like to say, we are on the wrong side of the extreme Midwest winter gradient. To me, winter is about consistency - the beauty, like a mindset and a calm and peaceful way of life…not just single events/storms. I plan to move to the upper Midwest when I retire…hopefully soon. Hope you don’t mind my comments here…I definitely enjoy the good people and discussion in this sub-forum.

I believe “measurable” means 0.1” or more…so they may have recorded a trace already. What’s even worse is that Chicago hasn’t had any measurable snow this season so far. I enjoy following everyone’s comments in this sub-forum…keep it up

Thread was started on September 13th; titled 2021-22 Winter Discussion. Hasn't been much of a reason to post in it lately. On a separate note, the 12z Euro has H85 temps around 18C at ORD on Wed night 12/15. What in the fook is happening...those are warm 850mb temps even if it were mid-September.