beavis1729

So, DJF is 13 weeks long, but we're reduced to hoping for a 2-week wintry period. That is what our winters have become. Yay.

Euro showing an extremely cold air mass in western Canada...but it just sits there. These are anomalies in C...some places are 25C (45F) below normal. You'd think this would be a good sign, to see this cold building in Canada...but then the entire US torches...especially beyond Day 7. It's a joke. No pattern is good...it's like the US can't have winter anymore.

What more can be said...just pathetic.

Yeah...I guess I’m in denial, thinking a 1-2 degree increase wouldn’t be a big deal for our winters. But we are so borderline to begin with, so any temp increase just kills it. To have a good winter here, we need significantly below average temps, say a -5 or more departure in DJF. See 2013-14. Eventually this anomaly will be -7 or more, as our normals get warmer over time. I know we can still get snow here with above normal temps in the heart of winter...but of course winter is more than just the total snowfall, when it melts in 3-5 days or less. Total snowfall is a very misleading metric. Need to use SDDs.

^ Yeah Hoosier, here we go again. Feels like there is some type of futility record being set every winter. Might as well load up a post about Nov-Dec warmth too, and the “latest in the season” threshold for certain low temps. Has ORD even dropped below 23-24F yet? Even imby, outside of the worst UHI in the metro, our min for the season so far is only 22.

Whether or not one has high expectations for winter to actually be snowy and cold...the medium to long range pattern is horrendous. There is no debate. Where is the cold air?? It’s nowhere to be found in the lower 48 over the next 2 weeks, during the shortest days of the year. Worse yet is that no snow cover is building up north. It’s bad enough that we have no snow cover here, but it’s ridiculous that MSP and northern WI have bare ground which will probably continue for the foreseeable future. Even places in the Upper Midwest and northern plains will probably have a brown Christmas, at this rate. That’s like a 1-in-200 year occurrence in places like INL. We’ll see an occasional ensemble run or two that tries to build a -EPO in the medium range, but then it vaporizes. Has it always been true that we need a -EPO in order to get a decent wintry pattern around here? I always knew it was helpful, but didn’t think it was an absolute necessity. What is going on?? Will it ever change?? Ugh...

Yeah, very dry and mild. Denver is currently 64/0, RH 7%...and may dry out a bit more later this afternoon. Limon is 63/-7, RH 6%.

Looks like thundersnow took the reins.

Yeah Bo...I’m sure it’s boring as **** up there. Snowmobilers and ice fishing enthusiasts are going out of their minds. No snow on the ground anywhere in the Midwest, except for your area and maybe a few other local microclimate areas...and it will somehow get even worse the next few days. Good news is you have a pretty big margin for error, so you can at least hold onto some semblance of winter even with a horrendous pattern. Hopefully it changes soon for you and all of us.

Yes sir...and COVID accelerated it even more this year.

I’m just tired of this. That’s all. Some people are content with winter in other ways (short days, cloudier, flakes in the air, potential for big storms even without snowpack retention, cold and dry with iced over lakes), etc. Everyone is different, no problem. But people need to be able to vent on a winter weather board. That’s how it goes in these parts. We are among friends and weenies. It’s not a big deal. The current pattern is horrible for everyone. It’s just reality. I don’t like accepting reality when it sucks. Hop on board the weenie train...everyone is welcome. Jebwalks for all.

What I don't think people are understanding is that, even here in far NE IL, our winter climo is horrible. For people south of here, I don't know how you deal with it. It's bad enough here. Next week, highs will be 45-50...that should never happen in Dec. It should never, ever be nice in DJF, where you walk outside and you can actually feel the warmth of the sun. But the expected warmth next week is only about 10 degrees above normal here. That's crazy. So, unfortunately, these warm temps in the 2nd week of Dec are actually not that unusual. That's the problem; there's just no margin for error for most of us. In order to have a decent winter, basically every day needs to be at or below normal. If our climo was just 5 degrees cooler, everything would be ok. Precip is fine; temps are the killer. Even in the depths of winter in January, a high of 40 here is just as common as a high of 20. That's not good. Highs near 20 and lows near 0 should be fairly common in winter. Not saying that needs to be "normal"...but days like that shouldn't be unusual. Unfortunately, they are. When your climo is 30/15 even at the coldest time of year, there's no margin for error. In Fall, when anticipating winter, you think "the days are getting shorter, time for winter'...just like it occurs for summer in May. In JJA, we know it's going to be warm. Just want the same idea for cold in DJF. Seasons in seasons. It doesn't need to be sub-zero every morning with feet of snow on the ground...but this bare dry ground crap with sun and daytime temps in the 40s is an absolute joke. What's the point?? The shorter days don't even matter. It was 60 on Christmas last year, even when it's nearly the shortest day all year. Does it ever feel chilly on June 21st, the longest day of the year? No. There needs to be a period in the year when you just know it will be cold and snowy. Maybe not all of DJF...but at least mid-Dec to mid-Feb. But there is actually no period at any point during the year when you can count on winter, as high temps of 40+ can occur occasionally here, on any day in Jan. It's the Midwest winter gradient that kills us. Very few of us are on the right side of this gradient. In N WI, average Jan highs are near 20. But in central IL, it's near 40...not far as the crow flies. We should all just stop pretending. We have winter discussions, long range threads, obs threads, monthly threads, all this anticipation and excitement...but why?? Getting one or two exciting winter storms in a 90-day period is not winter. It would just be nice, with covid and all of the other crap going on in the world and with daily life, if we could just enjoy some serious deep winter, where you don't have to look at indices and models and hoping for everything to come together. It should just come together because it's winter. Hard to get in the holiday spirit without it. Nothing crazy...just something like 3"+ of snow per week, with 20s in the day and 10 at night...then if an occasional thaw occurs, there's enough residual snow on the ground to handle it before the next snow comes. Maybe an occasional larger storm to shake things up a bit...and the occasional sub-zero morning...but what we need is consistency. But it's not meant to be. Folks are frustrated by this...I can't imagine I'm the only one.

Yep. I agree it's good to be patient and not throw in the towel yet...but we need to let people be upset and vent if they need to. The current pattern out to Dec 10 is horrible...no one needs to sugar coat it.

But your snow will melt soon, if it hasn't already. Doesn't really count for much, in my book...although of course it's always better to have storms vs. not having anything at all. By 12/10, there will probably be no snow cover at all in the Midwest...including the UP and even at INL. That is shocking and ridiculous...it should be deep winter up there. But people's expectations here are so low..."hooray, I got a 4" storm which melted in 2 days". I guess some are content with that, but it's not winter. Not picking on you specifically...just the general sense of the board. If it's mid-late November and winter hasn't settled in, that's fine...but it's not right to have nice and mild sunny days in DJF.

^ Unfortunately, the above map is misleading...as it doesn't capture the current tenor of the season. Most, if not all, of the snowfall in the US occurred prior to mid-Nov and has since melted...and there doesn't look to be significant snow anywhere in the next 10 days. An awful spot to be in for winter lovers, as we head into the shortest days of the year and the holidays. We need to build up the snowpack and cold up north, and it's not happening now. Total snowfall is not very useful when considering whether a winter is good/bad. Snow depth days (SDDs) are a better measure, i.e., the cumulative seasonal total of each day's snow cover (in inches), added together.

Correct. It doesn't just look hideous for Dec 1-15 imby, but for the entire Midwest. No snow cover building up north, no cold up north, 552 thicknesses in southern Canada, temps above freezing nearly every day at INL. It should be the depths of winter up there, highs near 20, lows near 0...or even colder. Where is the cold air? Some signs of a -EPO building on the EPS, but too far out to be excited about. And I'll again bring up my main point that we shouldn't need 5,000 indices to line up right to get snow and cold in DJF. It should just happen because the calendar says DJF. The days are so short right now, and we're wasting it on boring crappy dry days with highs 35-45 and lows in the 20s. That's not winter.

Same to you Hoosier. It has been a traumatic year. Happy Thanksgiving to everyone, and hope you all stay healthy through the holiday season.

Need to wait for 12z Euro and GFS ensembles. Hopefully there will be a continuation of the good phasing trends in the animation that Alek posted yesterday. If not, it’s probably game over.

I suppose...but that's kind of a low bar. In summer, do we only expect "shots of warmth"? No...we expect it to be warm and summerlike throughout summer...not just "a few weeks of transient warmth". Seasons in seasons. DJF should be wintry simply because it's DJF...not because of whether a certain pattern exists. The coldest temp of the season so far at ORD is only 28...and it will probably stay that way through the end of November. The cruel joke of a November continues...and the joke is on us. Patience is wearing thin...things better change by 12/1 at the very latest. In good winters, there seems to be a persistent changing of the guard in mid-late November...where all signs of fall are erased and it actually feels like winter, with the very short days. I don't just mean one snowfall that melts in 2 days...I mean an abrupt change to a winter-like feel that has staying power. But right now, perpetual Fall continues...it's just not good. Hard to get into the holiday spirit.

Broke the daily record high by 12 degrees...and the previous record was from 1948. Yikes. Normal high is 41.

Yeah, fine for now...but this warm and sunny crap better stop by November 20th. If I wanted nice weather when the days are short, I'd move to San Diego.

This is only the 2nd warmest temp in Chicago for so late in the season...which is hard to believe. It was 78 on 11/14/1971.

Wow, 75 in Duluth on November 6th? That’s ridiculous. Normal high is 41.