beavis1729

Yeah...unfortunately, there has been no cold air anywhere in the lower 48 so far this winter. As an example - for the current cold season through 12/27, Chicago (ORD) has only seen 5 days with a low temp colder than 24F. And there were only 2 (!!) such days through 12/23. That is just ridiculous.

Just saw a post in the long-range thread, implying that we should be thankful for even being able to track a storm that gave us rain. Really?? I don't understand. What's exciting about tracking a rainstorm, and debating whether highs will be 38 or 42 in DJF? Why are such posters so optimistic? I assume people in these threads like winter...so how can we be ok with what is happening?? Not meant to be personal or mean-spirited. Just some friendly banter on my way out...please take it for what it's worth. It's not an attack on anyone or any group of people. It's a surrender post - like laying down your queen in a game of chess. No need to insult or criticize individual posters, or call them out, or create drama. It's almost as if people believe it's a "win" to have a storm to track, even if there is no snow in our area. Is that what we've sunk to as a forum? Maybe we should just start hoping for a cloudy day in DJF...forget snowfall, forget cold temps. Or let's just say it's a victory because the days are short...hooray! A 100% guaranteed outcome; let's take all emotion out of it. I have a met degree and an MS in math, and work in analytics and insurance all day, Snowmobiling, winter, and family are my only emotional outlets. If expectations are low around winter, the emotion is gone. Then, what's the point? Don't others who want snow and cold see it the same way? I don't get it...but I guess the forum consensus is pretty clear: don't be excited about winter, and don't hope for or expect anything. Someone should pull up the F-6 from XMACIS/NOWData for January 1979 in Antioch. That's a real winter month. Of course we don't expect it all the time...but that's what we hope for. That's what keeps us going...right? Or, so I once thought...but after what I've seen on this forum, I guess not. Now we seem to be content with a 3" snowfall that melts in 3 days...and believe it's a victory. Really??? EDIT: see below...39" snow depth in Antioch on 1/16/1979, and 17 of the first 19 days with sub-zero lows...with 10 days in a row having lows -10 or colder. What kind of pattern produced that?? Why is it so elusive these days?? Nov 2020 was +7.1F at ORD...and I would actually say it's +9F if you use 1961-90 normals, which is what we should be expecting at a minimum. And Dec is +6.5F so far, or about +8F with 1961-90 normals. And these large + anomalies are using a horrible climo to begin with; it actually feels like Nov/Dec have been +15 on temps. I feel even worse for ND, SD, MN, WI, MI...north of 45N. Relative to climo (thinking of cumulative SDDs, current snow depth, and recent temps), it has been even worse for them. INL has only had 3.5" of snow in Nov/Dec...and Dec temps month-to-date are +12.9F. I guess we should feel better here that we're all suffering?? Maybe...... When will it change?????? Anyone with a glimmer of hope for a pattern change?? Sure, MSN and DBQ got a decent snowfall last night and this morning...but aren't we all tired of 50-mile wide bands of snow that miss 99% of the forum? Has it always been this way?? Where are the clippers and widespread 4"+ events with howling winds and people worried about frostbite?? That's what the media says about winters here...what a ******* joke. Does everyone really think that a climo winter here is ok? If I expected a climo winter, there would be no point in even participating in the winter threads. That's why my expectations are always so high; it's because I can't bear to face our climo. I guess everyone else is ok with their climo. But why?? It's understandable if the general public thinks this way...but this is a fooking winter weather forum. We're supposed to be weenies on these forums, excited about winter. Why aren't more people complaining, and supporting each other? Are we actually ok with the past 3 winters?? Have we all hit the last stage of grief, accepting how horrible it is? I wish I could do the same, I guess...but then I would have to admit that every future winter is going to suck, until I get the **** out of this area. Fine. Hopefully soon. People on this forum seem to want it both ways. Expectations are so low...but at the same time people like to brag about our winters and get excited about them. Which is it?? You can't have both. Let's just all admit that our winters suck, and be done with it. Take all the emotion out of it. I had chosen the other approach: to hope for winter, and to try bringing others along with me. So, when that doesn't happen, I get upset. That's life. I stand alone on an island...so it's time to stop crying out to the mainland, where no one is listening. I'm tired of being criticized for hoping for winter, tired of being the only one complaining when we don't get it, and tired of calls to "stop complaining and move north". It's not fun anymore. I've been desperately hoping that we'll have winter here, over the past 3 years. But it's time to give up, and wave the white surrender flag. Bye, and best wishes to all. Climatological Data for ANTIOCH, IL - January 1979 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Temperature HDD CDD Precipitation New Snow Snow Depth Maximum Minimum Average Departure Sum 553 -122 - - 1793 0 3.53 47.1 - Average 17.8 -3.9 7.0 -14.5 - - - - 24.4 Normal 29.0 13.9 21.5 - 1350 0 1.60 12.7 - 1979-01-01 23 13 18.0 -4.2 47 0 0.90 11.0 19 1979-01-02 15 -15 0.0 -22.1 65 0 0.02 0.3 19 1979-01-03 -5 -20 -12.5 -34.5 77 0 0.00 0.0 19 1979-01-04 0 -15 -7.5 -29.4 72 0 0.00 0.0 19 1979-01-05 4 -15 -5.5 -27.3 70 0 0.00 0.0 19 1979-01-06 3 -19 -8.0 -29.7 73 0 0.00 0.0 19 1979-01-07 11 -11 0.0 -21.6 65 0 0.00 0.0 19 1979-01-08 14 -14 0.0 -21.5 65 0 0.00 0.0 19 1979-01-09 6 -14 -4.0 -25.5 69 0 0.00 0.0 19 1979-01-10 14 -11 1.5 -19.9 63 0 T T 19 1979-01-11 2 -29 -13.5 -34.8 78 0 0.00 0.0 19 1979-01-12 11 -29 -9.0 -30.3 74 0 0.08 2.5 21 1979-01-13 27 10 18.5 -2.7 46 0 0.52 6.0 27 1979-01-14 27 -4 11.5 -9.7 53 0 0.60 8.0 35 1979-01-15 3 -20 -8.5 -29.7 73 0 0.00 0.0 35 1979-01-16 3 -19 -8.0 -29.1 73 0 0.22 4.0 39 1979-01-17 25 -15 5.0 -16.1 60 0 0.05 0.5 34 1979-01-18 24 -7 8.5 -12.6 56 0 0.00 0.0 30 1979-01-19 20 -10 5.0 -16.1 60 0 0.20 3.0 33 1979-01-20 32 18 25.0 3.9 40 0 0.10 1.0 22 1979-01-21 34 22 28.0 6.9 37 0 0.00 0.0 22 1979-01-22 26 8 17.0 -4.2 48 0 0.00 0.0 20 1979-01-23 24 8 16.0 -5.2 49 0 0.00 0.0 20 1979-01-24 30 18 24.0 2.8 41 0 0.45 5.0 25 1979-01-25 22 2 12.0 -9.3 53 0 0.19 3.0 28 1979-01-26 18 -1 8.5 -12.9 56 0 0.00 0.0 28 1979-01-27 24 0 12.0 -9.4 53 0 0.10 1.0 27 1979-01-28 33 22 27.5 6.0 37 0 0.08 1.3 27 1979-01-29 31 22 26.5 4.9 38 0 T T 26 1979-01-30 29 -2 13.5 -8.2 51 0 0.00 0.0 24 1979-01-31 23 5 14.0 -7.9 51 0 0.02 0.5 24

No worries...none of my comments are meant to be personal. Sorry if it ever comes across that way. I'm just more upset this year than normal, because of Covid and some other non-weather things. Just a tough year all around for so many people. Yeah, I agree November 2019 was decent for snowfall, relatively speaking...and we had a nice arctic outbreak for so early in the season. And Halloween was great here...we were in a local max of about 4" of snow on the ground. I'd never seen anything close to that on Halloween before. But in the end, it's generally forgettable, because it wasn't in DJF. Sure, Halloween was memorable...but it was only one day. The snow cover from Halloween and the November wintry period didn't last long, and it didn't contribute to any wintry feel because it was too early. It warmed up so much after that...and no lakes/ponds were frozen, etc. As for your other posts about all of the record-setting winters at ORD recently...maybe at DTW it was a bit different...although I still don't think climo is what things should be compared to. There is an absolute threshold for what constitutes winter, no matter where one lives. If you live in Siberia or central Alaska or northern Minnesota, every winter is great. If you live in Atlanta, none are...regardless of departures from normal. When you walk outside in DJF, there should be a high probability (not necessarily 100%) of it being cold with snow on the ground. You know, the season that the old-timers call winter. The only good stretches of winter at ORD in the last 20 years were...off the top of my head... (1) December 2000 (2) January 2009 cold (3) GHD I (4) 2013-14 winter (5) GHD II / February 2015 (6) Late Dec 2017 (7) January 2019 arctic outbreak That's not very much to be excited about, over a 20-year period. The only ones which were long-lasting/consistent wintry periods were (1), (4), and (5). So, 3 long-lasting wintry periods over the past 20 years. It was much better from 1976-1985. A good # of those winters were very cold, snowy, or both.

Glad you've come to grips with punting December, for your own sanity. But some of us haven't. Heck, I'm still furious about the first 10 days of December...and would still be furious even if things got better tomorrow. December is a winter month; it should not be ok to waste it. Sure, maybe January will be ok...but who really cares at this point? What consolation is that?

Yeah, it's the curse of the obnoxious "general public" and the media. Most people don't like winter, but get nostalgic around the holidays...and they think of Bing Crosby and Currier & Ives. But then on December 26th, it all goes away.

I think you're taking this out of context. Simply being "cold enough to snow" isn't good enough; it doesn't mean anything unless it produces consistently...or if there is already good snow cover. And it doesn't matter whether it can snow in Nov or April, if it doesn't stay on the ground. Sure, it's a nice statistic, but would anyone honestly say that Nov or Apr is wintry just because it can snow on a few days during those months? What I (and others, probably) mean is a period where we actually get a decent amount of snow and retention, i.e., consistent winter. In the past 4 winters, we've basically had 2-4 weeks of consistent winter - that's all. In 2017-18, it was the 2 weeks around Christmas, where it was cold and we had decent snowfall...but the rest of the winter was crap. In 2018-19, we had decent snow in late Jan followed by the cold outbreak at the end of the month...but the rest of the winter was crap. Don't get me wrong, the cold outbreak was wonderful...but it only lasted 2 days and it snapped back way too quickly (it was in the 40s two days after being in the -20s). And, in 2019-20, did we even have any consistent winter at all? If we did, it was just a 1-2 week period at most. Not a good batting average, when DJF spans 13 weeks on the calendar. The other 9 months of year can belong to the warministas...but just give us our 13 weeks. Isn't that enough? It's only 25% of the year...

So...some of you have referenced my high standards for winter. As I see it, below is what should happen in winter. Not saying every winter needs to be like this...but most should be. In other words, it's what we should expect and count on, and look forward to. It's the banter thread and things are boring as **** right now...so why not. These really aren't very high standards, in an absolute sense. They only seem like high standards because our climo is so bad here. People who live at 44N+ in the Midwest or Plains would probably laugh at these. Sure, I don't expect every month to be like Dec 2000 or Feb 2015...but those months should be closer to normal than the crap we've endured over the past 4 years. There are just certain things which need to happen for winter to be good, no matter what your climo is. If Dallas TX had their coldest and snowiest winter on record, it still shouldn't be considered a good winter for them. Their horrible winter climo is just too much to overcome for anyone to seriously think that Dallas could ever have a good winter. And that's ok...it's just reality. Same idea as school. A teacher can grade on a curve up to a point...but there are certain academic standards which need to be met in an absolute sense. And if no students meet the standards, they all get C's or lower for a grade. No grade inflation for winter. Total snowfall 60", ideally spread out by 15" every 30 days during the period Nov 15th to March 15th. Or, if more snow falls when daylight is the shortest, that's fine...even if very little falls after Feb 15th. Snow depth Some thawing and/or compacting...but, on average, snow cover builds up during winter, peaking roughly around 2/15. Consistency is most important, not the peak depth on a given day. Not very exciting to see a lot of snow fall, then it melts a week later, then it starts up again, etc. 2" by 12/1 4" by 12/15 6" by 12/31 10" by 1/31 Steady at 10" through 2/15, down to 4" by 2/28, then ok to melt completely by 3/10 Temps Dec and Feb: Most days with highs in the 20s and lows around 10. I would even accept about 33% of the days with highs in the 30s. However, there can be very few, if any, days above 40. About 20% of the mornings are sub-zero. Jan: Most days with highs 20-25 and lows near 5. Some days around 30. But very few, if any, days with highs above 35. About 33% of the mornings are sub-zero (it's January after all). In the end, here is how I would grade winter. Criteria are, in no particular order: (1) White Christmas (2) At least 60 days in DJF with 2"+ of snow cover, including 30 days with 6"+ (it's probably better to use Cumulative SDDs as a criteria, but I haven't dug into this enough). Again, these are not high standards...as I'm not suggesting 80+ days of snow cover during DJF. (3) At least 20 sub-zero mornings (4) No days with highs above 45 in DJF, and no more than 15 days with highs above 40 (but most of these should occur in early or late winter) (5) 50" of snowfall In order to have a great winter, all 5 of these things need to happen. If 4 of the 5 happen, I would call it a good winter. As exceptional as everyone thinks 2013-14 was, it only falls under the category of "good winter" because we didn't have a White Christmas. Maybe you could call it "good+"...because the other 4 criteria were exceeded, and some significantly. I know that may be a tough grading scale for those of us who live in the tropics, but a White Christmas is a big deal. Overall, I don't think this is harsh at all. Yes, some others disagree. That's why it's a weather forum, and we can all have our own opinions. I have a met degree and admit that I'm a weenie...both of these things can be true. Flame away...and post your own standards too...

So, DJF is 13 weeks long, but we're reduced to hoping for a 2-week wintry period. That is what our winters have become. Yay.

Euro showing an extremely cold air mass in western Canada...but it just sits there. These are anomalies in C...some places are 25C (45F) below normal. You'd think this would be a good sign, to see this cold building in Canada...but then the entire US torches...especially beyond Day 7. It's a joke. No pattern is good...it's like the US can't have winter anymore.

What more can be said...just pathetic.

Yeah...I guess I’m in denial, thinking a 1-2 degree increase wouldn’t be a big deal for our winters. But we are so borderline to begin with, so any temp increase just kills it. To have a good winter here, we need significantly below average temps, say a -5 or more departure in DJF. See 2013-14. Eventually this anomaly will be -7 or more, as our normals get warmer over time. I know we can still get snow here with above normal temps in the heart of winter...but of course winter is more than just the total snowfall, when it melts in 3-5 days or less. Total snowfall is a very misleading metric. Need to use SDDs.

^ Yeah Hoosier, here we go again. Feels like there is some type of futility record being set every winter. Might as well load up a post about Nov-Dec warmth too, and the “latest in the season” threshold for certain low temps. Has ORD even dropped below 23-24F yet? Even imby, outside of the worst UHI in the metro, our min for the season so far is only 22.

Whether or not one has high expectations for winter to actually be snowy and cold...the medium to long range pattern is horrendous. There is no debate. Where is the cold air?? It’s nowhere to be found in the lower 48 over the next 2 weeks, during the shortest days of the year. Worse yet is that no snow cover is building up north. It’s bad enough that we have no snow cover here, but it’s ridiculous that MSP and northern WI have bare ground which will probably continue for the foreseeable future. Even places in the Upper Midwest and northern plains will probably have a brown Christmas, at this rate. That’s like a 1-in-200 year occurrence in places like INL. We’ll see an occasional ensemble run or two that tries to build a -EPO in the medium range, but then it vaporizes. Has it always been true that we need a -EPO in order to get a decent wintry pattern around here? I always knew it was helpful, but didn’t think it was an absolute necessity. What is going on?? Will it ever change?? Ugh...

Yeah, very dry and mild. Denver is currently 64/0, RH 7%...and may dry out a bit more later this afternoon. Limon is 63/-7, RH 6%.

Looks like thundersnow took the reins.

Yeah Bo...I’m sure it’s boring as **** up there. Snowmobilers and ice fishing enthusiasts are going out of their minds. No snow on the ground anywhere in the Midwest, except for your area and maybe a few other local microclimate areas...and it will somehow get even worse the next few days. Good news is you have a pretty big margin for error, so you can at least hold onto some semblance of winter even with a horrendous pattern. Hopefully it changes soon for you and all of us.

Yes sir...and COVID accelerated it even more this year.

I’m just tired of this. That’s all. Some people are content with winter in other ways (short days, cloudier, flakes in the air, potential for big storms even without snowpack retention, cold and dry with iced over lakes), etc. Everyone is different, no problem. But people need to be able to vent on a winter weather board. That’s how it goes in these parts. We are among friends and weenies. It’s not a big deal. The current pattern is horrible for everyone. It’s just reality. I don’t like accepting reality when it sucks. Hop on board the weenie train...everyone is welcome. Jebwalks for all.

What I don't think people are understanding is that, even here in far NE IL, our winter climo is horrible. For people south of here, I don't know how you deal with it. It's bad enough here. Next week, highs will be 45-50...that should never happen in Dec. It should never, ever be nice in DJF, where you walk outside and you can actually feel the warmth of the sun. But the expected warmth next week is only about 10 degrees above normal here. That's crazy. So, unfortunately, these warm temps in the 2nd week of Dec are actually not that unusual. That's the problem; there's just no margin for error for most of us. In order to have a decent winter, basically every day needs to be at or below normal. If our climo was just 5 degrees cooler, everything would be ok. Precip is fine; temps are the killer. Even in the depths of winter in January, a high of 40 here is just as common as a high of 20. That's not good. Highs near 20 and lows near 0 should be fairly common in winter. Not saying that needs to be "normal"...but days like that shouldn't be unusual. Unfortunately, they are. When your climo is 30/15 even at the coldest time of year, there's no margin for error. In Fall, when anticipating winter, you think "the days are getting shorter, time for winter'...just like it occurs for summer in May. In JJA, we know it's going to be warm. Just want the same idea for cold in DJF. Seasons in seasons. It doesn't need to be sub-zero every morning with feet of snow on the ground...but this bare dry ground crap with sun and daytime temps in the 40s is an absolute joke. What's the point?? The shorter days don't even matter. It was 60 on Christmas last year, even when it's nearly the shortest day all year. Does it ever feel chilly on June 21st, the longest day of the year? No. There needs to be a period in the year when you just know it will be cold and snowy. Maybe not all of DJF...but at least mid-Dec to mid-Feb. But there is actually no period at any point during the year when you can count on winter, as high temps of 40+ can occur occasionally here, on any day in Jan. It's the Midwest winter gradient that kills us. Very few of us are on the right side of this gradient. In N WI, average Jan highs are near 20. But in central IL, it's near 40...not far as the crow flies. We should all just stop pretending. We have winter discussions, long range threads, obs threads, monthly threads, all this anticipation and excitement...but why?? Getting one or two exciting winter storms in a 90-day period is not winter. It would just be nice, with covid and all of the other crap going on in the world and with daily life, if we could just enjoy some serious deep winter, where you don't have to look at indices and models and hoping for everything to come together. It should just come together because it's winter. Hard to get in the holiday spirit without it. Nothing crazy...just something like 3"+ of snow per week, with 20s in the day and 10 at night...then if an occasional thaw occurs, there's enough residual snow on the ground to handle it before the next snow comes. Maybe an occasional larger storm to shake things up a bit...and the occasional sub-zero morning...but what we need is consistency. But it's not meant to be. Folks are frustrated by this...I can't imagine I'm the only one.

Yep. I agree it's good to be patient and not throw in the towel yet...but we need to let people be upset and vent if they need to. The current pattern out to Dec 10 is horrible...no one needs to sugar coat it.

But your snow will melt soon, if it hasn't already. Doesn't really count for much, in my book...although of course it's always better to have storms vs. not having anything at all. By 12/10, there will probably be no snow cover at all in the Midwest...including the UP and even at INL. That is shocking and ridiculous...it should be deep winter up there. But people's expectations here are so low..."hooray, I got a 4" storm which melted in 2 days". I guess some are content with that, but it's not winter. Not picking on you specifically...just the general sense of the board. If it's mid-late November and winter hasn't settled in, that's fine...but it's not right to have nice and mild sunny days in DJF.

^ Unfortunately, the above map is misleading...as it doesn't capture the current tenor of the season. Most, if not all, of the snowfall in the US occurred prior to mid-Nov and has since melted...and there doesn't look to be significant snow anywhere in the next 10 days. An awful spot to be in for winter lovers, as we head into the shortest days of the year and the holidays. We need to build up the snowpack and cold up north, and it's not happening now. Total snowfall is not very useful when considering whether a winter is good/bad. Snow depth days (SDDs) are a better measure, i.e., the cumulative seasonal total of each day's snow cover (in inches), added together.

Correct. It doesn't just look hideous for Dec 1-15 imby, but for the entire Midwest. No snow cover building up north, no cold up north, 552 thicknesses in southern Canada, temps above freezing nearly every day at INL. It should be the depths of winter up there, highs near 20, lows near 0...or even colder. Where is the cold air? Some signs of a -EPO building on the EPS, but too far out to be excited about. And I'll again bring up my main point that we shouldn't need 5,000 indices to line up right to get snow and cold in DJF. It should just happen because the calendar says DJF. The days are so short right now, and we're wasting it on boring crappy dry days with highs 35-45 and lows in the 20s. That's not winter.

Same to you Hoosier. It has been a traumatic year. Happy Thanksgiving to everyone, and hope you all stay healthy through the holiday season.