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    Toledo, Ohio

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  1. A large upper level trough will develop next week and one possibility is snow and cold temperatures in northern Colorado. The current models have a quick hit for the snow, but I suppose that could change. I think the trough may move too fast. On the severe weather side of things: The models have the 60 dew points from Texas into the Midwest. The SPC has given out an unusual Day-6 severe weather outlook, as shown. I figure the Illinois folks may eventually talk about this.
  2. Here are the temps today at 20z, with contours from 50 to 80 highlighted. It feels nice to not be 30 and cloudy. I guess I might get cancelled by some snowlovers by saying that.
  3. That sort of area always has an icy snowpack on the trail, as people walk on it and pack it down. I don't know if that helps. There's also another reason that I didn't go to Greyrock too much in the winter: the small parking lot has a mostly shaded area where you have to drive up a few feet. The slope may be icy. So, yes, you might get some icy stuff in exactly the places where you don't want. Hewlett Gulch has a road and parking lot that should be in the sun. Also, way less mountainous terrain at the trail. Still, might have some packed ice.
  4. Here is the precipitation percent of normal and snowfall percent of normal since the beginning of December. From the recent storms, the snowpack snow water equivalent is above normal for the Southwest and below normal for the northern Rockies.
  5. loop of 250mb, for the first 15 days of this 29 day month https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Feb_1_15_2024_250mb_loop.html
  6. Here's the NAM 850mb frontogenesis overlaid with 850mb temperature. Also surface observations from this morning
  7. Here is the observation in the middle of the night with the heavy snow at Greeley. I would imagine some areas were getting over 1" per hour
  8. We've got three slight risks, starting today (tonight) for Texas. Here is what may be happening at 12z(6:00AM central)
  9. The NWS has a winter weather advisory for you guys. They have the 2-5" type stuff, with not any huge snowfall at 9000ft+.
  10. The 18z GFS is kind of splotchy with this one. It's very likely due to high lapse rates/ instability The models have all sort of zones of heavier precipitation with this. I hadn't even been looking at the models much. It looks like the surface temp could be 29.
  11. pretty much a verified tornado now close to Evansville (tornado report at Albany at 5:37central)
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