Chinook

This could be 1.15"--> 13.8" of snow at a 12:1 ratio in *just* 24 hours. I am really hoping that none of this happens on Thursday.

The Euro has over 20" from Denver all the way over to the Oklahoma panhandle.

We may really have to watch this one. The normally stingy WPC 168-hour values have upped our area to 0.3" - 0.7" of QPF for the week (0.9" for the Palmer Divide.)

Possible scenarios-- the models are not really in agreement, but snow could happen on Thursday, Friday, or Saturday if it does happen.

Rain

anybody know why the SPC mesoanalysis shows the radar with only blue/green colors with some actual values of 40-50dBz detected on local radars?

We are getting closer and closer to March. My thinking is that generally moderate La Nina winters should correlate with a higher than average number of tornadoes in the USA for the season. As far as stronger (negative) MEI numbers, years such as 1999, 2000, 2008, 2011, and 2018 should be similar to this year, at least as January and February numbers. Possibly even 1996 could be an analog for a La Nina. total tornadoes / number of F1+ or EF1+ 1996: 1173/430 1999: 1339/530 2000: 1075/352 (much weaker year for F1+ tornadoes) 2008: 1692/707 2011: 1703/909 (outlier year) 2018: 1123/501 perhaps my best guess for the activity of the year might a prediction of EF1+ tornadoes as an average of these F1+ or EF1+ numbers, with less weight toward the 2011 number.

Radar loop for Denver metro area for our recent storm http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Feb_24_2021_radar_loop.html

I am thinking about doing some more things with regard to making loops of radar and other maps where I need to a screen-capture. I have normally been using a click-and-drag method in a simple picture editor. I want to switch to some Windows utility that can create screen captures with the exact same dimensions, with the exact same pixels of the screen captured over and over. This is because it looks better when I produce the loop. Any recommendations?

my place got 3-4" 12" of snow in downtown should've gotten a winter storm warning

5" of snow reported in downtown Denver.

The storm is starting here. The radar shows some slightly bubbly or convective areas of snow. My place has a few snowflakes so far. 700mb winds are E or SE. Surface winds are NE, E, or SE. Edit: winter weather advisory for Denver city.

The 18z NAM and the 18z GFS are very different for Denver on this storm, but have less differences for my immediate area. I suppose the models are just having a hard time finding out the mesoscale details for the upslope snow band. A winter weather advisory has been issued for south and west of the Denver metro.

The GFS and Canadian have storms on Thursday and Sunday. The GFS show a concentration of snow close to Boulder with the NE upslope component on Thursday. Overall, the entire area may have directly east winds at 700mb, which would be snowy for all areas around I-25. The Euro has 0.3" to 0.6" of QPF on Thursday for the Front Range cities, but nothing after that. Some GFS ensemble members are snowy for Sunday, some are not.

For Salina KS, February 11th-17th (7 days) averaged 29.7 degrees F below average. Wichita had 28.4 degrees below average.