Chinook

The Rio Grande region--Eagle Pass, TX to the Dallas area may have some severe storms, but I don't think the models are particularly amazing, given the 3000 J/kg of CAPE. Several areas of severe wind/hail should exist with the cold front in Kansas/Oklahoma. The 00z HRRR is more aggressive with severe storms, in a broad area south of Dallas, including Austin and San Antonio. Day 3 - Thursday. Models look impressive from eastern Louisiana to Jackson, MS. Overall, there might be a bit of veer-back-veer in the soundings, and maybe *too* much convection. Even so, if you have a big line of storms those storms still could produce tornadoes, given some 400 m2/s2 of SRH and 65 kt of deep layer shear.

GFS and NAM soundings for Wednesday evening, north of Dallas. Wednesday: overall, the CAPE and shear look pretty favorable for general severe storms from eastern Texas up through Missouri, as mentioned by the SPC. The veer-back-veer is quite distinct in the models, as of now, at this spot.

New tornado watch for Kentucky/ Ohio. Does anyone know why the SPC mesoanalysis is not displaying Watches/Warnings? It's driving me nuts

This may be a tornado debris signature and tornado vortex signature about 2 miles from this radar (GWX). Just a hunch.

Tomorrow- convection allowing models show that some storms may be in the vicinity of Nashville or Knoxville. Threat may be mostly east of Nashville. There is not a lot of agreement on any centralized area of severe thunderstorms, so storm reports may be more sparse than the 30% outlook indicates. With 70 kt of deep layer shear, any storm has the possibility to create significant severe weather. side note: I was looking at the SPC outlook for tomorrow. The biggest cities in the outlook area are Columbus, OH, Charlotte, NC, and Atlanta, GA. I guess Atlanta is just a small city of 486,000 people. I would have thought Atlanta would have 900,000 given the fact that so many large corporations are headquartered there, including The Weather Channel and Coca-Cola

Tornado warning at Trawick, TX (SE of Cushing). This one, if it is a tornado, may not be rain-wrapped like some others.

Several storm reports today in KY/OH, including one tornado

We had a high temp of 76 on Tuesday, with a sunset like this: and then we had this and 22 degrees, 24 hours later

Snowstorm with a severe thunderstorm embedded in it

This is nuts. There are 11" snow reports near me. I didn't measure a snow depth of 11", but a couple of my measurements were 8".

We have about 6" of snow. The winds have still been 15-20mph. It's not a blizzard-- there are not even gale-force wind gusts near here. Greeley and Cheyenne have wind gusts to 30-31 mph as shown on the station plots, so that is pretty windy there. The top layer of the snow is kind of fluffy. The bottom is more compact. This afternoon, heavy snow was consistent near I-25, and at Fort Collins and Loveland

Snow is coming down very fast. It has been sticking to the trees a lot, and now the wind is picking up to maybe 15-20mph in the city areas. Perhaps it won't stick to the trees with the wind getting stronger. Maybe the trees will fall over! As of yet, just a few plants and trees have developed small leaves.

Denver... too warm for snow?

We are starting to get wet snow here.

Well, should we root for the GFS, or should we root for some rain, which would be less of a mess? I don't know. Water is good. The grass is still really brown from winter.