Chinook

NWS is predicting 6-10" for Pueblo and southeast Colorado, 6-10" northeast New Mexico plains, and 12-20" for the Raton Mesa and the Sangre de Cristo range, 12-24" for the San Juan range, 2-4" Denver metro and northwards.

Thunder snow or thunder graupel?? Mayjawintastawm?

Model forecasts have shown increased snowfall over southeast and eastern Colorado in the next 2-3 days. It looks like there will be 2 periods of snow that develop as an upper level trough develops at the CO/UT border. A cold air mass will move into place in Colorado on Sunday. I was thinking this would be 1-2 inches near Denver and relatively light snow for northern Colorado-- previous forecasts didn't really have much in the north.

This winter, we have had a nearly El Nino, neutral winter. We have had some positive PNA periods, but now it is strongly negative, with cold in the Pacific Northwest. Negative PNA is much more like a La Nina winter. Regarding for next week at Alta, Utah, there is a possible low pressure development in Nevada and Utah in the cold air mass. Currently, the GFS has low amounts of snow for northern Utah, next Wednesday to Thursday. We have had kind of a roller coaster of temperatures here. We had 2.6" of snow last week, with low temps of -2 to -10 in the area. We warmed up to 58-60 on Wednesday, with lows of only 30-35. On Thursday, the early morning temperatures were about 40-42, then we got to about 49-55 in the late morning. Then, we got a backdoor cold front, with temperatures dropping to 30 by 7PM with clouds. This morning, we had light snow near sunrise with a temperature of 20. Now it is 50 again and completely sunny.

In addition to the recent California, Washington, and Oregon snowy periods, here comes this. More snow for California, and possibly over 2 ft of snow in Colorado and over 3 ft of snow in Utah. NWS Salt Lake is has a winter storm watch for 8-18" with locally higher accumulations at Alta, Utah

The Toledo area had storm reports of 0.3" of ice and 0.4" of ice. That's got to be a pretty bad one. I don't know when the last time when Toledo had that much ice accumulation. In my years of living in Ohio and Michigan, I don't recall any ice accumulations greater than 0.25", but there may have been some icing greater than that in 1990.

Models have been changing somewhat wildly on precipitation next Sunday-Monday. The 18z GFS changed back to having near zero precipitation for 10 days. the 18z GFS yesterday had 24.6" of snow for me in 10 days. The model ensembles show cold air in the western USA and northern Rockies for a longer period. Maybe some snowfall will happen at some point, even if it isn't in exactly 168 hours or whatever. I wonder if the Cascade Mountains basins will be at something like 90% or 95% snow water equivalent after the next few days.

Like little feathers of bad weather heading into northern Indiana

Surprising, just as your posted that (11 hrs ago,) the GFS and Canadian runs since this morning have started to show a storm on next Sunday to Monday (day 7-8).

outside of this subforum: Mount Washington had wind gusts to 148mph KMWN 091048Z 29096G108KT 1/16SM -SHSN FZFG BLSN VV001 M24/M24 RMK PK WND 300112/0954 VRY LGT ICG METAR KMWN 091252Z 290100G110KT 1/16SM FZFG BLSN VV001 M25/M25 RMK PK WND 280128/1150 PRESRR VRY LGT ICG wind gust of 112 kts (128.9 mph) at 09:54z wind gust of 128 kts (147.3 mph) at 11:50z

Many times the NAM has more freezing rain accumulation than the GFS. The NAM likes to have the boundary layer hold onto the temperature inversion. I don't know if this is very helpful though. Most models are showing accumulating freezing rain at Toledo and along the Michigan border. It's likely that the NWS offices may expect 0.05-0.10" of freezing rain in this corridor and adjust upwards as the storm comes nearer. Her is a 2.5-day freezing rain forecast from the NWS.

Seattle and Puget Sound area CoCoRAHS plot of snowfall

Latest Euro has lots of snowfall for northern Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota

NAM/GFS have roughly 40" for the Oregon Cascades (2.8" of QPF) . I am not sure why the NWS doesn't say this in the Winter Storm Warning. Maybe Portland will see some snow, i.e. their entire annual snowfall of 4" might happen.

Low temperatures this morning were in the range of -2 to -10 On the West Coast, NWS Seattle is expecting 6-8" for Seattle, with the cold upper level trough creating snow at or near sea level in Washington and Oregon.