beavis1729

Wow. Dropped to -3 here with 1-2” of fluff overnight. This overall set-up is fairly typical of arctic outbreaks. At the beginning of the outbreak, it’s more advection driven...then towards the end the radiators win out. A -35 temp at 45N in mid February is extremely impressive.

^ Wow, impressive cold in MN. The -50 could be close to the coldest MN temp on record so late in the season. And the -35 at Duluth is probably close to their all-time record, as they usually get some moderation from Lake Superior. Only hit -8 here this morning, even with a good radiational cooling set up. Cleared out right after sunset yesterday, 16” snow cover. We just don’t radiate well here, and it probably didn’t help to be on the far southern edge of the arctic air mass. This cold snap will be remembered for longevity here, not the extremes. Was hoping we could pull off a -15 or -20, but the coldest was -10 early on in the outbreak.

INL hit -42 this morning. I think this is the coldest temp in the US from this outbreak so far. Could be challenged the next couple of nights in the radiator spots like Tower or Embarrass MN.

Not necessarily; you’re assuming that OKC’s winter high temps are normally distributed...whereas the true distribution probably has some skew to it. Plus, there may be a “midnight high” which is what goes down in the record books, even if the afternoon high were only 2.

NWS is forecasting a high temp of 2 in OKC on Monday 2/15. Normal high is 55.

Even as the cold has moderated in recent days south of 45N, it continues to be brutally cold in ND and MN. Langdon, ND dropped to -35 this morning. Lowest wind chill was -60, at 4:55 AM (temp -33, W wind at 13 mph). Looks like the WC has been -30 or colder at every single hourly ob over the past 7 days.

Congrats! Still not a flake all day here in SW Lake County. Hopefully that changes tonight.

Point for Langdon ND, in the far northeast part of the state. Counting the past few days, it could be a 7-8 day streak with temps -10 or colder. Today Patchy blowing snow before 4pm. Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near -10. Wind chill values as low as -45. Breezy, with a west wind 16 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around -23. Wind chill values as low as -44. West wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Wednesday Sunny and cold, with a high near -11. Wind chill values as low as -47. West northwest wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around -27. Wind chill values as low as -45. West northwest wind around 11 mph. Thursday Partly sunny and cold, with a high near -14. West northwest wind 10 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around -29. West northwest wind around 11 mph. Friday Partly sunny and cold, with a high near -15. West wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around -31. Northwest wind 8 to 10 mph. Saturday Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near -13. Northwest wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around -24. West northwest wind 11 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

Wow, only -5 here. Looks like you cleared out right after sunset last night, perfect radiational cooling.

Notable cold this morning: Langdon, ND wind chill -57 at 6:35 AM (-29 with W wind 15 mph) International Falls, MN wind chill -53 at 7 AM (-36 with SW wind 5 mph)

Low of -10 here on Sunday morning, PM high of 2. Dropped to -3 this morning.

Yes x 1,000,000 to the hashtag

Let's shoot for #1...1899 or bust. Same time of year too.

Dropped to 1 this morning, coldest of the season. We may hit -10 tonight.

All things being equal, you're right that it's more difficult to get severe cold in mid-Feb...but in Chicago, record lows are still fairly cold (generally -10s) this time of year. The airmass has been building up north for awhile, and sun angle up there is still weak with relatively short daylight. Plus, there's extensive snow cover in the source region all the way down to here, which acts like a refrigerant.

This is a great blog on Alaska weather...here's an article about the extremely cold airmass in northern Alaska: http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2021/02/frigid-in-north.html

^ Yeah, 18z GFS brings down the motherload. Some crazy cold, including H85 temps around -30C in N IL on 2/13...but of course it's an op run at Day 9-10. Regardless, it still shows 11 consecutive days with sub-zero lows here, from Feb 6-16.

And here come the headlines. From NWS Grand Forks...wind chill watch in effect for 5 consecutive days. Wind Chill Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 244 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2021 MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024- 026>030-038-039-049-052>054-072045- /O.CON.KFGF.WC.A.0001.210206T0000Z-210209T1800Z/ West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods- West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake- East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen- South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin- West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier- Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks- Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland- Western Walsh- Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Ada, Twin Valley, Halstad, Moorhead, Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster, Roseau, Warroad, Greenbush, Baudette, Warren, Stephen, Argyle, Newfolden, Middle River, Grygla, Red Lake, Redby, Ponemah, Thief River Falls, Red Lake Falls, Fosston, Fertile, McIntosh, Erskine, Bagley, Clearbrook, Bemidji, Mahnomen, Naytahwaush, Waubun, Alida, Ebro, Lake Itasca, Long Lost Lake, Lower Rice Lake, Roy Lake, Upper Rice Lake, Park Rapids, Detroit Lakes, Wolf Lake, Breckenridge, Fergus Falls, Perham, New York Mills, Parkers Prairie, Henning, Battle Lake, Wadena, Menahga, Elbow Lake, Hoffman, Ashby, Herman, Barrett, Cando, Langdon, Cavalier, Walhalla, Drayton, Pembina, Neche, St. Thomas, Fort Totten, Maddock, Leeds, Minnewaukan, Devils Lake, Grafton, Park River, New Rockford, Lakota, Mcville, Aneta, Tolna, Grand Forks, Cooperstown, Finley, Hope, Mayville, Hillsboro, Hatton, Portland, Valley City, Fargo, Lisbon, Enderlin, Gwinner, Milnor, Forman, Rutland, Wahpeton, Edinburg, Adams, and Lankin 244 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2021 ...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills possible. Wind chills as low as 45 below zero. * WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northwest and west central Minnesota and northeast and southeast North Dakota. * WHEN...From Friday evening through Tuesday morning. * IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

This map is probably overdone with the cold...but I think it's reasonable to expect some -10 to -15 temps in N IL on Sunday morning 2/7. Chicago's record low is -10 set in 1875...could be threatened. Rockford's record low is -16 set in 1972...that could be in jeopardy too. And some nice -52F temps in N Manitoba.

I know it's speculation, but you'd think the baroclinic zone would be pushed south...and perhaps strengthen even more (!)...given the expected snowfall over the next 2-3 days.

Days like today are where UHI drives me crazy. I’m not even in the core of Chicago metro...and the high/low today has been 37/10 under nearly full sun. But in RFD, it looks like the high/low will end up being 30/2. I know UHI may not explain all of it...but it doesn’t seem like there was much difference in air mass or cloud cover for here vs. RFD. It’s obnoxious. So much non snow covered pavement around here to absorb more of the sunlight, compared to rural areas. Could also be that the south winds today had more snow covered ground to cover out west by RFD, vs. here...although there is a pretty deep snowpack down by IKK.

Yeah...to clarify, it's a winter weather thread...so of course people who post in it want wintry weather.

Yes...it's a winter weather forum, after all.

Right...but it's still annoying. Is UHI/albedo causing this?