beavis1729

We have had several awful winters since the 90s. Off the top of my head: 2001-02, 2005-06, 2011-12, 2015-16...and likely 2019-20 unless we get a major turnaround. Probably more too, just can’t recall the exact winters at the moment. I continue to be amazed at how low the standards are for winter among people on this forum. Back to the Jan 17-18 storm...yeah, definitely worried about the model trends over the last 24-36 hours to erode the cold faster. Not good. But in this dumpster fire of a winter, it doesn’t surprise me. If we had a decent amount of snow cover around here, we could actually hold the cold temps a bit better. I think we have had one day since November 15th with a low temp colder than 20F. Completely laughable and unacceptable. I wish I wasn’t so pessimistic, but what reason is there to believe otherwise? I’m all ears...

No, never been there.

Timberline Sports in Bergland, MI is the closest I’m aware of and have been to...but still quite a ways from MQT. May want to try Marquette Powersports in Negaunee.

Enjoy! Yeah, looks like you'll have some fresh and deep snow. Will be snowmobiling in the UP around Bergland/Ontonagon for MLK weekend...looking forward to it. A bit too far out to hone in on the forecast up there for Jan 19th-20th...but looks like it will be safely below freezing with no snowpack loss.

Ha...more confirmation that I live on a completely different planet than most of the good folks in our sub-forum. People's standards are very low, especially since most of us seem to like cold and snow. Where are the pitchforks and the complaining? It's like nobody cares anymore. Last winter was bad...no way around it. It was only highlighted by some decent snowfall in mid-late Jan and the severe arctic outbreak in late Jan...along with a storm in late Nov that melted fairly quickly because the soil was still warm. Sure, that was nice...but, the arctic outbreak was not as big of a deal as it could've been, because of the short duration and the fact that it warmed up to 40+F two days later. And December was a disaster, along with most of February. How is that a good winter? If I lived in your area (using DVN as a proxy), last winter was a C- at best...as there were really only 3 weeks of winter during DJF, from mid-January to early Feb. If not for the November storm, it would have been a D. And I'm trying to be generous. My personal grade IMBY for last winter is a D-, because you can't have so many crappy weeks that were bad in DJF in order to salvage a good winter, despite the Nov storm, late Jan snow and cold, and a couple unusual April snowfalls that were nice to see but don't really contribute to the winter grade because it stayed light until about 7:30 PM. Not the same feel when it snows in April. The only decent winters we've had in the last 10 years were: (1) 2010-11 due to GHD I...but even that was a small letdown, as most of the snow melted within 10 days (2) 2013-14, although Dec was obnoxiously mild (3) 2014-15 due to GHD II and the cold Feb (but, again, frustrating since Dec and part of Jan were a torch) So, only 3 decent winters out of 10. Of course, given the last few crappy winters, I would probably sign up for those three winters in a heartbeat. Even I am starting to become jaded. And, no, it doesn't mean I'm complaining about GHD I, or the 2013-14 winter. GHD I was the first time I saw lightning during a snowstorm - an amazing experience. It's almost as if a 2-4 week period of solid wintry weather qualifies a winter to be "good". Where does this thought process come from? Last I checked, winter is 13 weeks...so, at a minimum, it would be nice if 50% of it were winter. Not even saying 100%...just a measly 50% is all I'm asking. It's all in good fun...but would be nice to see others being as ****** off as I am about the last several years of non-winters. Everyone seems so jaded...it's very sad. Even in this current horrendous stretch since 11/15/19, people are saying we're just having a bad run, and this happens sometimes. That's ridiculous; a stretch like this is a complete no holds barred disaster...no spinning it any other way. There is no way that a 6-week stretch like this should even be possible. Even a 2-week stretch like this is a disaster. But, most importantly...Happy New Year to cyclone and everyone else, and best wishes to you and your families for a great 2020.

I suppose optimism is good and well-needed...but I wouldn't go that far. Very limited supply of cold air in general, which means that we're depending on a "thread the needle" with most/all of the possible systems. Not a good situation to be in even in Dec or Feb, much less January. Unfortunately, this current disaster of a pattern over the past 6 weeks (!!) has reset our standards to a new low.

Ha. I’ve been seething and melting already, for about 4 weeks...you just haven’t seen it yet.

At least it's winter somewhere. From Rick Thoman (AK state climatologist) twitter feed at one of my favorite webistes: http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/ Manley Hot Springs 15NE (near Eureka) cooperative observer reports -65F (-53.9C) Friday morning (obs only since summer 2016). This looks to be the lowest official temperature in Alaska since Ft. Yukon -66F (-54.4C) in January 2012. In case you are wondering, the lowest official temperature in #Alaska in December is -72F (-57.8C) on December 31, 1999 at Chicken (Taylor Highway south of Eagle).

Yeah...

Thanks for your thought. Yeah, it's crazy how much of a difference latitude can make in the Midwest. My wife and I considered moving there several years ago. She lived in Eden Prairie for awhile in the 90s, and really liked it. Unfortunately, we've found some stability and good friends in the Chicagoland area, which my wife values a lot. At our family's place in life, it's difficult to give that up at the moment. Maybe in 3-5 years. If we did move to the MSP area, it would probably be 10-20 miles outside of the city (preferably N, to be a bit colder and avoid the UHI), to enjoy the open space yet still be close to the city when needed. I know, first world problems. Eventually, we'll probably settle in the north woods of WI...around 46N. Beautiful up there in all seasons, with about 70-90" of seasonal snowfall and winter temps about 10-15 degrees colder than here, and 5 degrees colder than MSP. The lakes are usually frozen for 3+ months. And not too far from GRB or MSP, when needed. People who enjoy winter just want seasons to be seasons - a consistent snowpack and consistent cold in DJF. This shouldn't be a big deal - it's a pretty low bar. Just like we can count on summer every year. No one wakes up on June 20th and wonders if that day is going to feel like summer. It will be summery in 99% of the years on that date, simply because of the calendar. Not because of the state of the EPO, WPO, AO, AMO, etc. Doesn't need to be 150+" of seasonal snowfall with 4+ feet on the ground in DJF - just a wintry feel...like the summery feel on June 20th. We shouldn't need to worry about waking up on a DJF morning and seeing bare grass and temps in the 30s. It's not winter. Even a small handful of these days are annoying...yet we've had no snow cover at all since 11/15. People should be sledding, ice skating, bundled up in layers, crying to their mommies about the cold, etc. Every winter, you think it will be wintry after Thanksgiving...then on Dec 1 as the days are really short...then you hope for Dec 5 as the days keep shortening...then Dec 10...and many years it's still not wintry yet...then you rationalize it and say "ok, it's still early, but winter will finally happen soon, even if only 2 months from Dec. 15 - Feb. 15", instead of the 3 months that it should be...but then as you move further into December, you realize that even the low bar of 2 months can't be counted on. It's exhausting to keep hoping. There is no "snowpack season" in our area - no period during DJF in our area that can be counted on year after year, decade after decade. Even in January, we often get highs in the 30s, and record highs are typically in the upper 40s or 50s. Bah.

Meh...economic opportunity is overrated. Of course, in our capitalistic and materialistic "grow grow grow" society, we've been conditioned to care about this over more important things...like nature, peace of mind, quality of life, family, community, relationships, etc. I'm not immune to this either - our family is staying in the Chicago suburbs because of decent jobs, even though the quality of life and noise pollution is miserable. So, I can definitely relate to what you're saying...but my point is that it shouldn't be important. Our society forces us to make these choices, and pits people against each other, just to survive. Probably not the best way to go about life. Anyway...the big issue facing 90% of us in this sub-forum is that we've been deluded into thinking that we actually have a winter season. We don't. As much as it drives me crazy and I wish it were different...those are just the facts. You really need to be around 45N in the plains and eastern lakes in order to have sustained winter. The numbers don't lie. Where I'm located at 42N, our normal high even in the depth of winter is 30F...meaning that, in January, a 40F day is just as likely as a 20F day. That's not acceptable. And it's even worse in mid-Dec and mid-Feb. Lakes and ponds don't freeze reliably here. That isn't winter. Sure, we have bouts of wintry weather and can see some big storms once in awhile...but those are events, not a long/sustained/consistent wintry season. Of course our winters are better than many populated areas in the world...but those are relative comparisons. What matters for sustained winter are absolute numbers, not how we compare to Dallas or Seattle or London. Of course those places have crappy winters, and we all know that...but it doesn't make ours any better. It would be much easier on all of us if we ignored the media and the general public's lies about our "brutally cold winters"...and instead stick together and rely on the facts. We have a great community here, but it feels like we argue with each other all the time. If we all just admit that winters are horrible south of 45N, it will make things a **** of a lot easier. We actually know about our crappy winter climo on this board...but unfortunately 99% of people have no ******* clue. Just human nature, I suppose...but it's maddening. It's even more frustrating because the winter gradient in the midwest is so stark. 150 miles due north of my location generally has deep winter in most years...and 200 miles pretty much all years. So close, yet so far.

Another “good” thing about the current regime is that snowpack is building north of about 44N. If we were torching, we’d lose that snowpack too...which would make a bad situation even worse.

Ugh...if I had to pick one, it would be the current regime, because it’s at least a bit more of a wintry feel than 10-15+ above average temps. More wintry is always better...even if we are talking a score of 5 out of 100 vs. 2 out of 100.

Our climo is a joke...and this is the crap that happens when your normal high is around 40. Highs in the mid 20s should be a typical seasonably cold day, as the days are short and we’re in December...but unfortunately a day like that is just as likely as a day in the mid 50s. We fight climo all winter. We shouldn’t need to have a million indices go right to get snow and cold. The calendar should be enough. Not saying we need 4 feet of snow and subzero temps...but at a minimum, 5” of snow each week with highs 25-35, and crisp mornings in the teens. Nothing crazy...just typical winter weather. Then an occasional good week with a foot+ of snow and some subzero mornings. It’s maddening to go even 3 days with average daily temps above freezing and no accumulating snow and no snow pack...and then 3 days becomes 5 days, 5 becomes 8, 8 becomes 12...and before you know it, 3 weeks are wasted when the days are shortest. So so so so tired of it. Why do we hope for winter in our area, with our unbearable climo? Of course we can occasionally have big storms and periods of wintry weather...but winter is supposed to be a season, not disjointed events.

Dropped to 6 here, and 7 at ORD. The 7 at ORD breaks the daily low temp record for 11/12, and is the coldest temperature on record for Chicago so early in the season. The prior coldest was 8 on 11/12/1986. ORD also set a record low of 13 last night (11/11) just before midnight, breaking the old record of 15 in 1950. Rockford dropped to 3 this morning, breaking the daily record low for 11/12 (old record 7 in 1986). Also, this morning was the coldest temp on record so early in the season. Previous record was 3 on 11/13/1986.

Rochester MN dropped to 0 this morning, breaking the old record of 1 set in 1991. Normal low for today is 30.

Agree, now within 5-6 days instead of 7-10. Also, it looks like there could be a bit of snowpack in the source region (Upper Midwest), which is noteworthy this time of year. If all of this comes together, areas here or nearby could be close to record cold. Probably getting ahead of myself again ...but here are some records that *could* be in jeopardy: Madison: Record low 9 on 11/11 (2017), 7 on 11/12 (1979). Record low max 23 on 11/11 (1894). Rockford: Record low 14 on 11/10 (2017), 10 on 11/11 (1926). Record low max 29 on 11/10 (1933), 26 on 11/11 (1986), 27 on 11/12 (1940). ORD: Record low 18 on 11/10 (2017), 15 on 11/11 (1950). Record low max 28 on each of 11/10 (1926), 11/11 (1894), 11/12 (1995).

Well, all this talk doesn’t matter anymore, since the 12z gfs lost the arctic outbreak. Sure, it’s still generally a bit colder than normal and therefore could open the door for a possible snow event...but the cold isn’t noteworthy. Obviously 492 dm thicknesses in the northern plains were overdone...but I expected a modest correction to 498 or 504...not 516. That’s a 15-20 degree difference in sensible weather. Plus, the angle of the cold is wrong now; too far east. I guess we deserve this for looking at Day 7-9 op runs...but that’s what winter weenies (including me) look at in November. You would think Day 7-9 has some general predictability. If it were Day 10+, that’s different. Anyway, I suppose it’s best to give it a day or two and not jump off the train yet...but we’ll see.

Let's go even further...how about 492:

Well, for Round 2, the 12z NAM and 3k NAM show roughly 0.6" - 0.8" of liquid in the northern half of the LOT area, between 9 PM tonight and 9 PM on Halloween night. That's the good news, but unfortunately the good news ends there. Given the discussion and model analysis over the past couple of days, you would've thought that Round 2 would be all snow. Unfortunately, based on recent tends, it looks like 50%+ of it will be liquid/mix/35F snow due to contamination of the boundary layer off the lake. And this isn't just for areas right by the lake; it's most/all of the metro area. So, if you figure 8:1 ratios when it does snow at temps that would allow sticking, 1-2" seems like a best case, unfortunately. You just need a million things to go right this time of year, and it just doesn't seem to be happening. If only this were 2 weeks later... Even so, accumulating snow on Halloween is always a bonus, and has never happened in all my time living here.

While it will be chilly in these parts over the next few days, some incredibly cold air has plunged into the Rockies and western plains. Denver, as an example... 10/28: New record cold max of 21. Old record was 30 in 1925. 10/29: New record cold max of 19. Old record was 25 in 1993. 10/30: Record cold max is 18 in 2002; record low is 7 in 1991. Forecast is 19/3, so a record low will probably be set. 10/31: Record low is 10 in 1991. Forecast low is -3 (!). All-time October monthly low is -2 on 10/29/1917. Normals this time of year are around 60/30...so there will be 3 days in a row with -40 departures on the high temps. It looks like Cheyenne WY will smash their October monthly record low too.

Yikes, the little ones in the northern plains could be trick or treating in bitterly cold temps, if that verifies. Good stuff. Definitely some signs of cold air coming down on various models, for October standards. We will see...

It dropped to -8 this morning in West Yellowstone, MT. That's insane for October 10th.

AFD from Grand Forks Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 718 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 714 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Band of showers moved quickly north thru WC and NW MN and wrapped back into the RRV and as it is enountering the colder air trning no snow Devils Lake, Cooperstown area. Radar showing a large ara of snow and rain headed our way. No changes to the fcst necessary in the very shor term. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 351 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 The most difficult snow forecast and highest snowfall forecast of my 30 year career. Hard to believe model data at this point. Chat with WPC and they can`t believe it either, but moisture advection today out ahead of 500 mb short will spread precipitation across the area. Banding has been evident with snow band in western ND into western SD tonight. All signs point to rapid development of precipiatation today as 50 kt low level jet moves into central ND. Rain showers into E ND and NW MN overnight with some thunder at times in MN. This band of rain looks to set up over the RRV today with rainfall amounts today 0.75 to 1 inch possible. Some thunder in west central MN possible. West of the RRV atmosphere will cool as main precip moves in and what could be a mix will go to snow this morning and snow heavy at times this aftn and tonight just west of the RRV. Lift in the dendritic zone would support high accumulation rates esp this evening in the DVL area. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 351 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Main upper low will move thru western MN and settle over NW MN Friday night and then wobble around. A very strong def zone will be over E ND Friday afternoon and night with heavy snow and likely very high snow rates...NE ND ...roughly Hallock to Grand Forks to just west of Fargo and west. Very strong winds will develop west of the sfc low which will near the 500 mb low location. Well mixed layer up thru 50-55 kts to mix down Langdon to btwn Devils Lake and Grand Forks Friday into Saturday AM. Net result of all this is will go winter storm warning for the entire event (thru 18z Sat) for eastern ND... will upgrade watch to warning as well Fargo zone and far SE ND mainly for tonight change to some snow but it looks like on southwest side of upper low snow will accumulate more than 6 inches into F-M area more so Friday. Kept winter storm watch bordering main snow band Roseau to Fosston to Fergus Falls and dropped watch far eastern counties as any snow there later Friday into Saturday 2 inches or less.