beavis1729

From NWS GRB: .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 Quiet conditions return to the region over the course of the short term forecast as high pressure establishes itself and temperatures drop well below normal. Skies will clear out tonight as the surface high drops southwards over the Great lakes from Canada. CAA will be in full force tonight, bringing well below normal temperatures and drier air. Clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to drop into the lower 30s and possibly upper 20s, which has prompted the frost advisory for northern Wisconsin tonight. It`s note worthy that the high pressure center will be near 1033mb during this time, which is near record, just a few days after portions of Wisconsin observed record low pressure from the remnants of Cristobal. Saturday, skies will remain mostly clear with cool and dry air in place. Highs will head into the middle to upper 60s, possibly getting back up into the lower 70s.

While you continue to present your arguments very clearly, calmly, and rationally (which is to be admired), I still think your argument is a false dichotomy. I'm not even saying that a lockdown will ultimately be proven to be the correct choice. However, if the government/society deems it to be the optimal decision to have a lockdown in order to reduce the spread of the virus, then the businesses and people impacted by the economic repercussions should be protected and made whole. It should not be a choice for survival vs. having a job. It is completely mind-boggling how, in a country with so much wealth, we pit people against each other...mainly because of economic reasons. This should not need to happen. It would have been very easy to just give small businesses and all employees in certain industries X% (say 75%) of their revenue through YE 2020...just to tide people over. In other words, incentivize people to stay home. Normally, that's not ideal...but during a pandemic like this, we should be paying people to stay home if the government (which it has) deems that lockdowns are needed for the good of society. And I mean direct payments...not UE benefits which can be exploited and manipulated and take a lot of time to process. Yes, there would probably be some inflationary/productivity consequences of that down the road...but it seems like the lesser of two evils. As an example of how ruthless our capitalistic society is, one of my neighbors is being worked to the bone right now, as the employer is hoping she will quit...and therefore wouldn't be able to access unemployment benefits. Completely unethical and immoral...yet these things go on every day in this country. We should not have a situation that causes businesses to make these decisions that have no regard for human life. The government deserves a ton of blame for this. Not for the lockdowns themselves, but for the lack of empathy and the lack of a coherent plan to make people whole...so that they wouldn't feel like they have to choose between life and a job.

My view would be that, in general, Spring is the period for which at least a certain percentage (say 70%) of observed high temps throughout the climate record on each day within the period are between 40F and 70F. For Chicago, this would probably be March 15 to May 31? Places in the Midwest away from the lake at a similar latitude might have a shorter Spring based on this methodology, say March 15 - May 15. Then, for a particular year, you could probably apply this same technique to see how much shorter or longer Spring is vs. a typical year...but of course there will inherently be more variability in one year vs. a collection of years. An interesting statistical question. Also, there was an interesting post on the blog linked below, trying to define seasons. I believe it used a baseline of the warmest 90 days of the year to be summer, based on prior (cooler) normals...then looked at current (warmer) normals, and determined the new "length of summer" based on the old normals' warmest 90 days. For Chicago, based on this methodology, summer is now 97 days. https://us-climate.blogspot.com/2020/04/is-summer-longer.html

Of course (unfortunately) it’s hard to argue with what you’re saying, based on how our country is currently structured ..but my view all along is that the pandemic is exposing the toxic “every man for themselves” culture in the US, where people are pitted against each other for the sake of “the economy”, against the greater good. Sure, it leads to a greater GDP and a lot of wealth...but people and small community/local businesses shouldn’t need to make the difficult decision to risk getting sick for the sake of the economy. We must have something good come out of this pandemic, for the cohesiveness of our society and so people look out for each other and look out for the greater good. For example, paid sick leave, better value health care, paid paternal and maternal leave, etc. We must stop fighting ruthlessly against each other, and stop the idea that we must out do someone else in order to better ourselves. The American individualist ideal is tiresome and, combined with the toxicity of technology and social media, has led us to where we are today.

Cromartie?

At ORD, the normal high for today is still only 71, and at MKE it’s only 66. Highs at MKE yesterday and today were only 54 and 53, respectively. I know you’re further west...but the great lakes influence doesn’t really go away here until early June, at which point average highs at ORD are more in line with areas in the Midwest away from the lakes. Just last year, ORD had the following high temps in May: 53 on May 11th 52 on May 12th 57 on May 20th 54 on May 21st And in May 2018, even with the hot end of the month, ORD had highs of 52, 50, 55 on May 11th, 12th, and 20th respectively. The point is that May days can be quite chilly around here, compared to what many “expect”.

I can definitely vouch for this airmass, even on the far west end of the arctic lobe here in the NW suburbs of Chicago. Temps were only in the low 40s yesterday afternoon with nearly full sunshine. Didn’t quite set a record low max, but it’s nearly impossible to be that cold in peak heating around here on May 8th unless complete cloud cover and/or heavy rain is occurring. Temps that low with an early August sun angle speaks to the insanely cold airmass for the time of year. Normal high is 68. A few spots in N IL dropped to the mid 20s this morning, probably close to all time late season cold...but there aren’t many long lasting PORs besides ORD and RFD, which only dropped to 31 and 29 respectively due to UHI influences.

Part of the balance that needs to be considered is that, while people can reasonably debate whether the government should have mandated business closing and other actions as much as they did, it's unacceptable (to me) that the government didn't provide more reassurance and income for people while this is occurring. For example, just say "we will give you 75% of your annual 2019 W-2/1099 income every month until the end of 2020, up to a cap of X...with no questions asked". This would have been much more efficient than all of the complicated first-come first-served PPP/loan programs/stimulus checks that are happening now, and most importantly, it would've given people reassurance. Also, it would stop pitting people against each other. When a country has a crisis, people need to come together, not be arguing. Capitalism doesn't work well during a crisis, as the inherent desire to be competitive with other people is a very bad thing during a crisis. This is a horrendous faliure in leadership from this administration. Sure, there would probably be inflation and other unintended economic issues down the road as a result of this...but what is the alternative? People would have much more incentive to care about public health and social distance if they didn't need to worry about their paycheck and survival. This is what's causing all of the problems, imo.

12z GFS has 510 thicknesses over Bo's house on 5/8 (hour 102). In N IL, it looks like the coldest days will be 5/8 and 5/9. As of now, it looks like the sun will be out at least part of these days...in which case daytime temps will probably be mild even if the thickness levels are anomalously low. The sun angle is equivalent to early August. If Friday night can clear out with either strong cold advection or radiational cooling, some places in N IL may drop below freezing on Saturday morning 5/9. That's probably the best chance for a record to be broken...although the record low is 27 in both Rockford and Chicago. Rockford 5/8: Record low max 41 in 1960; record low 30 in 1947 5/9: Record low max 41 in 1960; record low 27 in 1966 Chicago 5/8: Record low max 42 in 1960; record low 29 in 1983 5/9: Record low max 42 in 1966; record low 27 in 1983

Yeah, crazy. And, at 216 hours verbatim, there are 516 thicknesses in NYC. They struggle to get that even in January...

Wow, that's ridiculous. I never knew about that event. More recently, there was a decent snowfall in parts of northern WI on 5/17/1997.

Looks hot in Las Vegas early next week. It could be the first time in recorded history to hit 100 in April.

Bingo - I hear you. And, I think it’s precisely this uncertainty that is driving the overwhelming government response. Not saying it’s right or wrong... To me, the only solution is to enable widespread testing with almost immediate results...so that people can self-isolate as needed, and everyone else can get back to relative normal, even if masks are still required out of an abundance of caution.

It’s due to increased testing. There could be some other ancillary reasons, but increased testing is the simplest explanation. Occam’s Razor.

Unfortunately, pretty much all sporting events, concerts, etc. are doing this...whether it’s StubHub or Ticketmaster or the venues themselves. It’s extremely annoying, even if there may be reasons for it. Just issue the refunds for all events, if they didn’t occur on the scheduled date. Doesn’t matter if the event has not technically been canceled. Same issue with airline ticket refunds. I have 8 tickets around the US that were previously booked for my family and I for this spring and summer. I canceled all of them, and we can use the money as a credit for future flights by YE 2021...but I would rather have the money back as a refund so that I can make the decision. This is especially frustrating because airlines took a lot of the government stimulus money. Just do what’s best for the customer, and be done with it. Very simple.

This is the main point. Buckeye - I (and many others, I'm sure) do understand where you are coming from...but what does it say about us as a country/society/culture when there are so many deaths that occur for every 1pp increase in the unemployment rate? That is the issue. It's not about hard-core idealistic socialism...but we really need to stop with this "every man for himself" attitude in this country, and create communities where we all do what's best for the greater good, not competing viciously against one another for every nickle and dime of income so that we can barely survive until the next paycheck. What kind of a life is that? Why is our health care tied to employment in the first place? Why don't we have paid sick leave like other countries have? What do we value?? Sure, these policies would mean a higher cost of goods and services...but isn't that a reasonable price to pay for security in health and wellness? COVID-19 is exposing so many of these underlying issues in our culture. Of course an individual's own business that they spent blood, sweat, and tears on is important and valuable and should be protected as much as possible. But in a country as wealthy as we are, why can't we pull out all the economic stops to help every single person in this country...knowing that it's an emergency that will better position us for the long-term. Basically, what Powerball referenced. When 40% of people live paycheck to paycheck, $1,200 doesn't help much. Yes, these emergency measures may mean higher taxes or other challenges down the road...but it's an emergency. Why don't we all work with each other and collectively sacrifice for the greater good? We need to stop the "you vs. me" attitude that is toxic to this country.

I think that's right, along with (2) more testing and (3) health-care professionals still needing to work and then unfortunately spreading the virus back into the community or their families due to lack of PPE. Just my thoughts...not saying they are 100% validated and tested.

Not sure if this perspective has been discussed much on here...but if you can get past his angry and egotistical style of writing, it's an interesting hypothesis. Most importantly - if this hypothesis is really true, what is the best solution going forward? https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=238738

Agree. And, there are income limits. https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-checks-direct-deposits-coming-105454070.html

Yikes, the little ones in the northern plains could be trick or treating in bitterly cold temps, if that verifies. Good stuff. Definitely some signs of cold air coming down on various models, for October standards. We will see...

Per NWS Anchorage, I think the official site (Ted Stevens airport) hit 90. Previous all time record high was 85...and, on average, Anchorage only hits 80 once every 4 years. This is crazy.

Not sure if this is the appropriate thread...but the dewpoint at Barrow (Utqiagvik) AK hit 58 yesterday. That is shocking to me...at 71.3N, right on the Arctic Ocean.

Good catch on ND. I updated the list (and OH too, per the other post). Christmas Eve 1983 must have been a great night for the good folks of Williston to sit in front of the fireplace and enjoy the holiday spirit. Those are some good old-fashioned winter conditions...wow.

Yeah, I was 9 years old for the December 1983 arctic outbreak, living in the Chicago suburbs. It’s my first weather memory.