beavis1729

Agree, now within 5-6 days instead of 7-10. Also, it looks like there could be a bit of snowpack in the source region (Upper Midwest), which is noteworthy this time of year. If all of this comes together, areas here or nearby could be close to record cold. Probably getting ahead of myself again ...but here are some records that *could* be in jeopardy: Madison: Record low 9 on 11/11 (2017), 7 on 11/12 (1979). Record low max 23 on 11/11 (1894). Rockford: Record low 14 on 11/10 (2017), 10 on 11/11 (1926). Record low max 29 on 11/10 (1933), 26 on 11/11 (1986), 27 on 11/12 (1940). ORD: Record low 18 on 11/10 (2017), 15 on 11/11 (1950). Record low max 28 on each of 11/10 (1926), 11/11 (1894), 11/12 (1995).

Well, all this talk doesn’t matter anymore, since the 12z gfs lost the arctic outbreak. Sure, it’s still generally a bit colder than normal and therefore could open the door for a possible snow event...but the cold isn’t noteworthy. Obviously 492 dm thicknesses in the northern plains were overdone...but I expected a modest correction to 498 or 504...not 516. That’s a 15-20 degree difference in sensible weather. Plus, the angle of the cold is wrong now; too far east. I guess we deserve this for looking at Day 7-9 op runs...but that’s what winter weenies (including me) look at in November. You would think Day 7-9 has some general predictability. If it were Day 10+, that’s different. Anyway, I suppose it’s best to give it a day or two and not jump off the train yet...but we’ll see.

Let's go even further...how about 492:

While it will be chilly in these parts over the next few days, some incredibly cold air has plunged into the Rockies and western plains. Denver, as an example... 10/28: New record cold max of 21. Old record was 30 in 1925. 10/29: New record cold max of 19. Old record was 25 in 1993. 10/30: Record cold max is 18 in 2002; record low is 7 in 1991. Forecast is 19/3, so a record low will probably be set. 10/31: Record low is 10 in 1991. Forecast low is -3 (!). All-time October monthly low is -2 on 10/29/1917. Normals this time of year are around 60/30...so there will be 3 days in a row with -40 departures on the high temps. It looks like Cheyenne WY will smash their October monthly record low too.

Yikes, the little ones in the northern plains could be trick or treating in bitterly cold temps, if that verifies. Good stuff. Definitely some signs of cold air coming down on various models, for October standards. We will see...

Of course it’s still early, but I’ve been seeing some hints at a modoki El Niño for DJF, which in theory would be good for many of us. There’s a recent post in the mid-Atlantic forum winter thread on this. Not sure how to link to the image on mobile.

Per NWS Anchorage, I think the official site (Ted Stevens airport) hit 90. Previous all time record high was 85...and, on average, Anchorage only hits 80 once every 4 years. This is crazy.

Not sure if this is the appropriate thread...but the dewpoint at Barrow (Utqiagvik) AK hit 58 yesterday. That is shocking to me...at 71.3N, right on the Arctic Ocean.

Good catch on ND. I updated the list (and OH too, per the other post). Christmas Eve 1983 must have been a great night for the good folks of Williston to sit in front of the fireplace and enjoy the holiday spirit. Those are some good old-fashioned winter conditions...wow.

Yeah, I was 9 years old for the December 1983 arctic outbreak, living in the Chicago suburbs. It’s my first weather memory.

Good catch...the -52 seems legitimate. I updated the list (1st post of the thread). Same with your comments upthread for HI, OR, WA, MA.

Nice. That is an insane airmass...-23 in Akron OH with a 21 mph wind out of the SW. Wow...

Very rarely in that part of the world. In fact, they hardly ever occur even in the Chicago area...where winter temps average about 6-8 degrees colder than northern KS. As an example...despite the fact that 1/6/2014 was a brutally cold and windy day in northern IL, wind chills "only" dropped to around -45.

Good find. In those hourlies, I see -21 with 16 mph wind, and -22 with 14 mph wind. Both result in a WC of -47. The intra-hour reading showed a 16 mph wind, but no temp to go along with it. Again, can't take it too seriously; part of the challenge and fun of science is putting the pieces together and finding/analyzing data. The planet has been around for a long time...I'm sure some of records will be broken in the next 50-100 years. Some of it depends on timing and having a better observation network now; we don't need to hope that the extreme events occur only at the major reporting stations. For example - if the record cold in Bartlesville, OK in Feb 2011 occurred a generation ago, we would have probably never known about it. Same with tropical storms in the middle of the Atlantic. Just part of the journey. I've updated the list in the first post of the thread; it's easier to keep track there.

Oops. I got it from this article...I guess they missed it. https://www.pressherald.com/2014/01/04/how_low_can_portland_temperatures_go__/

I poked around and looked for hourly temp/wind obs in Maine during late Feb 1943, but no luck so far. The -39 in Portland is even more shocking because, not only does it blow all other low temp readings out of the water in Portland...but it occurred relatively late in the season...on 2/26/1943. A cool 58 degrees below the 1981-2010 normal low of 19. Yikes.

Nice graphs...and for those interested in AK weather & climate, that Alaska-wx blog website is great. Wow, nearly every single day from Nov 2017 - Mar 2018 was above normal in Barrow (and these are recent normals, i.e. 1981-2010)...and many of those days were way way above normal. Perhaps it's not too surprising, as the persistently low amount of ice north of Barrow over the past 10-15 years significantly moderates the temps in Barrow due to E or NE flow...but still.

Ok, come on...this is not meant to be personal. All I'm trying to do is have a good list based on verifiable numbers. I'm a scientist, so it's important to have quality control of the data. It's not a personal vendetta. If others are estimated besides IN and KS, you're right that they shouldn't be on there either. It's a work in progress.

Ha...got to fill the summer downtime!!

These WC records are intended to be actual measured readings of temperature and sustained winds (even if intra-hour), not interpolated estimates based on winds at nearby areas, and not to fill in missing data.

Good catch - verified on wunderground hourly obs. I don't remember that cold snap - must have targeted New England instead of the Midwest.

I agree that WCs in Maine have dropped lower than -52...but I haven't been able to find a measured hourly/intra-hour number that can be verifiable. I looked at the locations and dates you mentioned, but no luck yet. Will keep looking!

The Farmer's Almanac data is actually using Duluth MN as an estimate for Superior WI, as it's the closest nearby station with reliable data. So, I only consider this an estimate for Superior.

This is great information and probably mirrors the general conditions in the area on these dates...but for purposes of WC records, I don't think it's good "quality control" to use estimated/mean #'s.