beavis1729

2 PM temps from N to S: UGN 42 ORD 51 JOT 58 IKK 67

MKE reported thundersnow: KMKE 102152Z 04013KT 1/2SM R01L/3000V4500FT VCTS -SN BKN004 BKN008 OVC014 01/M01 A3002 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3/4 SLP172 P0011 T00111006 $

Crazy to think that CAR's SDD record was set in 1976-77, when 3/77 was their all-time warmest. More evidence that the climate in NNE is so favorable for winter lovers...not just for "events", but for all-encompassing wintry appeal. IMBY in the far NW suburbs of Chicago, it's a totally different ballgame. We only average 40" of snow annually, plus retention is horrendous. We're lucky if we have one full week with double-digit snowpack over the course of a winter. January normals are 30/15...just cold enough to give us decent wintry conditions when the pattern is good...but unfortunately things can go off the rails quickly. We're kind of in the middle of what I call the "Midwest winter gradient". Go 150 miles north, and it's a very solid wintry climate. Go 150 miles south, and winter is essentially non-existent. Thanks for indulging me in the joy of NNE wintry climo.

NWS North Platte, NE: Northerly winds will also increase on Wednesday night and into Thursday. This will lead to possible blowing and drifting snow for Wednesday night and Thursday. Current thinking is that for early Wednesday evening winds will only really have an impact on falling snow as the character of the snow will be too wet to blow much once it is on the ground. However, as the night progresses and snow ratios rise to from 15:1 to near 20:1, snow will be easier to blow once it is on the ground, resulting in not only blowing snow but drifting snow as well. Northerly winds on Thursday morning will rise to 45 to 55 mph which could result blizzard conditions and significant visibility reductions leading to continued travel concerns. While snow is expected to move east by late Thursday afternoon, blowing snow will continue well into Thursday night as winds remain above 35 mph across the region through this time. Overall, the highest snow totals will be across the northern portions of north central Nebraska where rain transitioned over to snow quicker. Lesser amounts are expected as one moves south towards I-80. After looking at recent guidance, have significantly increased totals across the north with the highest amounts generally along a line from Valentine to Spencer where up to 25 inches could be possible. Snow will taper to the south where the precipitation remained rain a bit longer. Lowest amounts at this time will be across eastern Frontier and southern Custer counties where up to 3 to 4 inches is still possible. Regardless of snow totals, the snow combined with the potential freezing rain earlier and strong winds during and after the snow, will lead to quite dangerous travel conditions across much of western and north central Nebraska. Caution should be exercised if travel is absolutely necessary on Wednesday into Thursday night.

Makes sense - probably some orographic/upslope enhancement to allow for their 200"+ seasonal snowfall.

Interesting that 1976-77 was only CAR's 9th snowiest on record, with 145.9". A very cold winter. Even though 2018-19 will likely be 3rd in SDD, it will be #1 in consecutive days with 1"+ depth.

Thanks for the info on Diamond Pond...good stuff! Definitely a snowy place, at least based on the 15 years of data. Even in the inferno of 1997-98, they still saw 161". Their November snowfall is very impressive...gets the seasonal snowpack going right away.

Thank you! Looks like Stewartstown is the town, right at 45N and 1,100+ feet ASL. I know it can be difficult to get accurate data in the north country...but their normal snowfall is probably around 160-200"?

Is Diamond Pond an actual town...or just a pond? I tried looking for info, but couldn't find much.

I imagine that, for 2018-19, Caribou is near their all-time record for SDD days. 158.5" on the season so far, with another 4"+ on the way tonight. Snow depth is currently 23" - not bad for April 8th. They have had 6"+ depth since 11/14/2018, although the thaw in the last half of December dented the sizable snowpack quite a bit. The snowpack recovered nicely at the new year.

Good stuff! 80” depth in a fairly low lying area...yikes. Out of curiosity, what was your FK depth on 5/1/84...and when did the snow finally melt (excluding plowed piles)?

Nice! Seems like your place has good retention, even with the increasing March sun angle. Was looking through an old amwx thread on the snowiest towns in New England, and came across this: Fort Kent 5,715 SDDs (83-84) 1983-84 must have been a fun winter up there. Here in the Midwest, we had one of the great arctic outbreaks around Christmas, with Chicago's coldest mean daily temp on record (-18; -11 high, -25 low) on 12/24/1983. I was only 9 years old, but it's the first weather event I remember.

Congratulations, and great pictures! Glad you are having a good old-fashioned winter.

Yep, agree. Glad it will cool off again there for awhile...especially during the overnights. I thought your depth was around 65" in early March. It must have settled down to around 55" during the past week, even with temps below freezing?

This sums up my thoughts exactly, but in a much more eloquent way. Great post. If one wishes to judge a winter solely based on climo, you have to admit that winters in our area are extremely benign. That approach is fine, I guess...but the problem is that no one ever admits this...either in this forum or among the public. You can't have it both ways. As mentioned before, there were only 18 days in DJF 2018-19 with 3+" of snow cover at ORD (only 20% of the days), Dec 1st - Jan 15th were a complete disaster, and the last 3 weeks of February were bad too. Only 3 weeks of the 13 were wintry. So, the only way that Chicago could possibly receive a B or higher grade for this past winter (which I've seen some people give) is if their winter climo is horrible to begin with. Sure, some areas just north and west of Chicago did better...but the main point still holds. That is what frustrates me about this board sometimes...and especially the public and media. They seem to think Chicago has dreary/painful/relentless/never-ending/blah blah blah winters. It's just not true. Of course it may seem that way to people from Atlanta...but Atlanta doesn't have winter. That's not a reasonable comparison. But we all have our own opinions. All good. Below is a post from someone on the forum who lives in New Sharon, ME. Not the northern part of ME, the high arctic, Siberia, Alaska, or a mountainous area. This is what winter thoughts and musings can be like; all fun and high expectations. Only a C+ grade, with a current snow depth of 37-38"! Even I wouldn't be that harsh. If March-April come in right at C-level, this winter will score a solid C+, thanks to the A+ for (low-weighted) November and a B+ for January, overcoming December's D. (And only Dec being BN temps kept it with a passing grade.) I value pack depth and persistence, and this winter will almost certainly have 2nd highest SDDs of 21 here - after today will be over 2,500 and about 300 behind current #2 (2013-14) with 37-38" current depth, but 1,300 away from 2007-08. Would need a blockbuster (or two), plus a cold April, to approach that winter - not happening. Perhaps there is no use discussing this anymore, but at least someone else gets it. It saddens me that there aren't more hardcore winter weenies in this sub-forum, who hope for as much winter as possible. But if anyone is ever up for having an all sub-forum get-together sometime to chat and have a beer or two, count me in.

Sorry to hear about this.

Thanks for the kind words. Northern 1/3 of WI, northern half of MN, and the UP fit the mold just fine. They often have snow cover during DJF, with lakes that always freeze up for good at some point, and normal Jan temps of 20/0 or colder. Also, ME/VT/NH. Even though they have more thaws, there is enough snowfall and density of snowpack that snow cover/retention is strong there. Setting my lofty expectations aside for a bit...I still don't understand how people can give grades of As/Bs for Chicago when ORD had essentially zero snow and persistently mild temps in the first 6 weeks of met winter...and then during the last 25 days of Feb, there were only 4 days with snow depth 2" or greater. So, nearly 10 of the 13 weeks of the DJF period were bad. How does anyone think this is a good winter? Maybe my D- grade is a bit harsh...but can it really be higher than a D? I guess we agree to disagree.

I don't think it has to do with a climate change bias. I think it has more to do with the low population there...which is unfortunate. It's all about social media and "exposure" these days. Rhinelander, WI just broke its all time monthly snowfall record by 20+" in Feb, and they have over 100" on the season with 35" snow cover...not bad for a non-snowbelt location in the Midwest. Parts of the UP snow belts have 50-70" of snow cover. Not one word in the media. If Chicago had a big snowfall season, the media would be all over it...and there would be the typical rubber stamp footage of an old dude with a hat on protecting themselves from the wind saying "what a dreadful winter....waaa...waaa...woe is me"...even though the northern plains have this nearly every day in DJF and it's just part of life.

I don't think your depth will decrease...but you may only add 2-4" instead of the 5-6" that you'd normally expect. But the good news is that the heavy/wet snow on top could act to protect the snow underneath, meaning better snow retention when the thaw comes.

Ha...and yes, I agree. When grading winter, it's not about what I or anyone else is "satisfied with". That's not the point. Even so...some winters do get a good grade in Chicago. For example, I would give 1978-79 an A-, given the 90" of snow at MDW (and closer to 100" in NE IL near the WI border), with constant snow cover throughout DJF. I would give 2013-14 a B-...which is actually a pretty good grade compared to the average Chicago winter grade of D or D-. Even though everyone praises 2013-14 like crazy, the downside was that December was fairly mild (10 days with high temps above 35, including 3 days of 40+ temps in the last week of the month), with no White Christmas. December is the month that you really need to perform in order to have a good winter, because it lays the base, it goes with the holidays, and daylight is shortest. And on top of that, after the arctic outbreak in early January 2014, there were 4 consecutive days with highs of 40+...which melted most/all of the snow cover. Of course this is somewhat typical in Chicago...but you can't give winter a phenomenal grade when these things occur. It's just reality. Sure, it was a good winter by Chicago standards...but that doesn't really mean anything. And I know it was a bit better in Detroit. None of this is meant to be obnoxious or start an argument...but winter is what it is. We just have to accept that Chicago and Detroit (and most places in the lower 48 south of 45N) don't have solid winters. It's not a big deal or anything...but that's the situation. I'm not sure why people deny this, or struggle with this concept. It's like when people who enjoy severe weather get frustrated when there is a prolonged issue of capping or poor timing, etc. during the prime time of April-June. Of course, some of this is climo...but it's still frustrating when the general public spouts off how much severe weather the U.S. sees...but then sometimes it doesn't happen like it "should". Of course I enjoy and appreciate the wintry periods and big snowstorms like anyone else...and that's great. But these are only wintry events, as opposed to the season and mood of winter...which are not the same thing. Places with real winter have the old-fashioned weather observer in their 80s telling tales about their hand-written records going back to 1965 related to lake freeze-up date, break-up date, etc...and comparing it to the prior observer's notes from the 1910s...showing how the seasons ebb and flow with each other. And 90+% of years have snow cover starting in mid-Dec. No worrying about melting of the snow or lakes/ponds. And in the unusual year where you don't have a White Christmas, it's the talk of the town. You know, David Ludlum and Pony Express and Currier & Ives stuff. But none of that happens in our area. Edit: just saw the winter grade thread...will post future comments there. I know, it's exhausting...but when you're a winter weenie, that's life. When 9 out of the 12 months aren't winter, you hope that the other 3 months deliver. And now we wait until next November.

Well, of course I respect all of your opinions...but I guess I see things from a different point of view. First, Winter is an absolute thing, not relative to climo. Even if Atlanta has a record snowy winter, it would still get an F, because there isn’t a persistent wintry appeal throughout DJF. You may say my expectations are too high, but it’s not about that. I fully admit Chicago will never get an A for a winter...because I agree with Chicago storm’s point that we always get thaws. That just proves my point. For this season, we had no white Christmas...and during the first 6 weeks of DJF, winter was nonexistent. Because of that, the starting point is an F. Then the November storm and the late January arctic outbreak could have (generously) brought it up to a C...but then the quick thaw and snowmelt after both of these events just killed it. So, split the difference with a D. The ice storm doesn’t contribute much either way. Sure, it was interesting...but 2 days later, you never knew it happened. True wintry places focus on SDDs, peak snow cover date, # of days with 20”+ depth, etc. Chicago never entertains these discussions at all. If Chicago truly got an A for this winter, does Rhinelander get an A+++? Do Bo and Will get an A++++++++++++++? Think about that...

To each his own of course...but man, these are very low expectations! Winter was nowhere to be found for half of DJF. If we are supposed to be happy with one warning criteria event in a winter and a 2-day cold snap where temps rebound to 50F two days later, that’s pretty sad for all of us. In your backyard, I would give this winter a D+. In my backyard, a D. Sure, there were some good periods, but you can’t lose 50% of winter and give it a favorable grade. If we didn’t have the huge thaw after the cold snap, the grades would be C+ and C respectively.

Here is the detailed report on the new Illinois state record low temp (-38) at Mt. Carroll on 1/31/2019: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/extremes/scec/reports/20190305-Illinois-Minimum-Temperature.pdf Good thing this unscheduled visit occurred recently...otherwise the record may have been invalidated. On 17 October 2016 the NWS COOP Focal Point made an unscheduled visit to the site when WFO Quad Cities meteorologist reported temperature readings too low when compared to surrounding locations. Upon arrival the COOP Focal Point discovered a separated LIG minimum thermometer and replaced it with a new thermometer. Since replacing the thermometer, reported temperatures were in line with surrounding stations and no further issues were found during subsequent annual visits. The current minimum thermometer has been in service since this visit and was inspected annually for accuracy.

How is it possible for every single storm to take the exact same track for the past 5 weeks?? On top of that...even if the storm tracks west of you, shouldn't enough antecedent cold air remain in place so that the warm air rides above it...as opposed to just displacing it entirely at all levels? It's completely maddening and frustrating. One could even argue that we had a similar pattern as 1978-79 (the holy grail of winters in Chicago), but displaced about 100 miles north. The margin of error is so narrow here in the tropics, as Cary67 alluded to above. I am convinced that the unacceptably huge thaw after the arctic outbreak in late January was the death knell of winter in our area. It wiped out 12"+ of snow cover all at once. If that decent snowpack would have remained in place across most of the Midwest, it may have displaced the baroclinic zone/storm track a bit further south...and it could be an entirely different ballgame. I guess it's more understandable in March...but in DJF, you shouldn't have to worry about exactly where a storm tracks. If there is precip, it should be snow.