patrick7032

Meteorologist
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About patrick7032

  • Birthday 03/16/1973

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    patrickCMU

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KSJT
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    San Angelo, TX
  1. I like the sound of this... DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0325 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013 VALID 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEGLIGIBLE SEVERE PROBABILITIES...LOW-END SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST STATES ON D5-6 IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ENCOUNTERING AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT. THE ECMWF/CMC ARE CONSISTENTLY FASTER/WEAKER THAN THE GFS...RESULTING IN MORE SUBDUED INLAND PENETRATION OF A GULF AIR MASS AND MODEST KINEMATIC FIELDS. MORE PROMINENT SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY BE REALIZED TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WRN CONUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS WOULD SETUP RETURN FLOW FROM THE WRN GULF INTO THE CNTRL CONUS...S OF A RELATIVELY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON D1-2 IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS DETRIMENTAL TO DRYING ACROSS THE GULF BASIN AS THE MOST RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE HAD...WHICH POTENTIALLY WILL YIELD A MORE STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE WRN CONUS TROUGH WITH IMMENSE SPREAD IN BOTH AMPLITUDE AND TIMING...WHICH WILL CERTAINLY EFFECT DOWNSTREAM CYCLOGENESIS AND FRONTAL POSITIONS. AS SUCH...CONSIDERING ANY HIGHLIGHT FOR A SPECIFIC AREA/DAY WITH 30 PERCENT OR GREATER SEVERE PROBABILITIES IS PREMATURE ATTM. ..GRAMS.. 04/10/2013
  2. I agree with you about MAF covering SJT..and originally thought of EWX too as a site...but then thought as the ballon ascended it would come into approach patterns for AUS and SAT from a pilots perspective...and with SJT having only American Airlines as the commercial airline here...with only 3 flights a day...figured it would be less of an impact to aviation. Either spot would work...and agree with the Houston area needing a site too. Theres a few data void areas that need to be filled...and having launched ballons have thoughts on good spots...but that's another "soapbox" that I won't dive into...lol.
  3. What discussion was this from Ed? I completely agree with it. For this past event I would have loved for our office to have been a raob site, we were in perfect position...and if you look at the UA sites we'd fill a void. Granted Del Rio is somewhat near us to the south...but we'd fill the void in the west central part of the state. It brings up an interesting question...if you had enough money to add only one UA site in Texas...where would you place it?
  4. Today could be interesting at work. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX422 AM CDT TUE APR 2 2013 .SHORT TERM...NON SEVERE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES AT THIS TIME ACROSS THENORTHERN BIG COUNTRY IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVESLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ABOVE THESURFACE...STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT IS NOTED ON THE WATER VAPORLOOP DOWNSTREAM OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE APPROACHING THE FOURCORNERS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WILL EATAWAY AT THE REMNANTS OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT HAS CAPPEDMUCH OF THE AREA /FOR WHAT HAS SEEMED LIKE YEARS/.AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THEAREA. HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY WILL LIKELY REMAIN INTHE LOW/MID 50S. HOWEVER...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE WARM SECTORWILL DESTABILIZE AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTSAPPROACHING 60 DEGREES. THIS WILL SUPPORT MLCAPES UPWARDS OF1500-2000 J/KG. LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS LEAVE A LITTLE TO BEDESIRED BUT MODEL PROGS INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD STILL END UP WITHEFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AT OR ABOVE 30 KTS...WHICH WILL AGAIN SUPPORTORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH A TANGIBLE THREAT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS.CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE AIDED BY STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...WITH MESOSCALE ASSISTANCE PROVIDED BY A DEVELOPING UPPERTROPOSPHERIC JET OVER COAHUILA AND SOUTH TX AND A THERMALLY DIRECTCIRCULATION TIED TO LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. LCL HEIGHTS AREEXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND 0-1KM SHEAR VALUESARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE REALM OF 15 KTS. THUS...THE POTENTIAL FORISOLATED TORNADIC STORMS IS WORTH A MENTION. OTHERWISE...EXPECTLARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED AT 1-1.25 INCHES BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICHIS NEARLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY APRIL. GIVENTHE PRESENCE OF THIS SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCHFOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THEONSET OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THEI-10 CORRIDOR AFTER SUNSET. THESE STORMS MAY CONGEAL AND GROWUPSCALE INTO AN MCS...PROPAGATING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THELATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH WINDS AND COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THEAREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S...WITH SOME LOW50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSISTAFTER MIDNIGHT AS POST FRONTAL ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX403 AM CDT TUE APR 2 2013 HAD SOME STORMS LINGER EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE NE PERMIAN BASINBUT THESE HAVE MOVED OFF. MODEL QPF DEVELOPS PRECIP THIS AFTERNOONAND TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANSPECOS... BUT DOES SHOW SOME PRECIP AS FAR WEST AS CNM. HAVE DECENTLOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CURRENT DEWPTS IN THE EAST IN THE MID TOUPPER 50S... THESE WILL DECREASE WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.THE SWODY1 HAS A SLIGHT RISK EASTERN HALF TODAY/TONIGHT... GENERALLYALONG AND EAST OF A HOBBS TO MARATHON LINE. THUNDERSTORMS... SOMEPOSSIBLE SEVERE... ARE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTTODAY. A NUMBER OF FACTORS ARE TRYING TO COME TOGETHER TODAYINCLUDING THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW... THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLDFRONT... AND A DRYLINE. COMBINE THAT WITH GOOD CAPE AND HIGH SHEARWILL CREATE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM SECTORDURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BELARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND... WITH A FEW TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE.FAVORED LOCATION FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAND EAST OF THE DRYLINE... THIS WILL FAVOR THE TRANS PECOS REGION.STORM THREAT WILL NOT END WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AS POTENTIAL FORELEVATED SEVERE STORMS BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTOWEDNESDAY.
  5. Unless needed at the office later today...Abilene looks like a decent spot. I looked at points north and northwest in the slight risk area...and Big Springs was decent too...but low level depression was larger...with soundings showing only 9-11C dews.
  6. Here a few images. The CB with the housing is from near Lubbock...the picture with the Doppler radar is from my office. That was a severe warned cell that produced numerous reports of golf ball hail...and pea size hail to a depth of 4-6 inches...with drifts...and over 2 inches of rain in an hour. The associated radar image is of the same cell about 20 minutes after I had taken the picture of the CB.
  7. Looks like there could be some sun in my area and points north tonday and tomorrow. The first 30% risk of the year for parts of my area tonight...and the first sig 30% of the season for the Red River Valley area. Tor and wind threat is also there. Work tonight...but off tomorrow...so it looks like I might be heading to the Wichita Falls area for tomm... DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1051 AM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013 ...SRN PLNS TODAY INTO TNGT... WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ATOP FAIRLY STOUT EML CAP LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AREAS OF HIGH-BASED AND ELEVATED STORMS ABOVE THE CAP INTO TNGT...BOTH IN DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR OVER OK AND NW TX...AND ATOP DEVELOPING SFC WARM/STNRY FRONT ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL OZARKS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY YIELD MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. BUT MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE THE CAP. COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY MODEST SHEAR...DEGREE OF ELEVATED CAPE SHOULD REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO POSE AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR SVR WEATHER. A SOMEWHAT GREATER RISK FOR SVR STORMS...MAINLY WITH HAIL BUT ALSO POSSIBLY WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND...MAY EVOLVE LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT OVER PARTS OF WRN AND NW TX AND ADJACENT WRN/SRN OK. IN THIS REGION...FAVORABLY-TIMED APPROACH OF NM UPR IMPULSE WITH MAX SFC HEATING MAY YIELD A SUFFICIENT COMBINATION OF DESTABILIZATION AND ASCENT TO PROMOTE STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT ON WRN FRINGE OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE RETURN. WHILE WLY DEEP SHEAR ACROSS REGION WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MODEST /30-35 KTS/...UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF CLOUD-LAYER FLOW AND PRESENCE OF DEEP EML/STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES COULD YIELD NUMEROUS STORMS WITH SVR HAIL AS MUCAPE INCREASES TO NEAR 1500 J/KG. CONTINUED EWD MOTION OF UPR IMPULSE AND EXPECTED AMALGAMATION OF STORM-GENERATED COLD POOLS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR TWO ESE-MOVING STORM CLUSTERS OVER NW TX AND OK. THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SVR HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND INTO LATER TNGT...BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING WEAKENS UPDRAFT STRENGTH. DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013 ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND MID-MO VALLEY. AT THE SFC ON SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN IA AND NRN MO WITH A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD INTO ERN KS AND NW MO BY AFTERNOON. THE SRN PART OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NW OK SWWD INTO WEST TX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD. THE SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD NEAR THE SFC LOW IN THE MID-MO VALLEY WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION TAKING PLACE IN THE SRN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS. THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN OK AND NORTH TX DURING THE EARLY EVENING WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME ENHANCED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS AT 21Z SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S F IN SE KS TO THE LOWER 60S F AROUND WICHITA FALLS TX. MLCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 1500 TO 2000 J/KG IN SE KS AND NE OK WITH HIGHER VALUES OF 3000 TO 3500 J/KG POSSIBLE SWWD INTO SW OK AND NORTH TX. IN ADDITION...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 KT IN NE OK TO AROUND 40 KT NEAR THE RED RIVER. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY WITH CELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF STRONG INSTABILITY IS REALIZED IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES MAY ALSO DEVELOP BUT THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW BELOW 850 MB COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR. IF THE FAVORED MODE BECOMES LINEAR DURING THE EARLY EVENING...THEN AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS THE OZARKS EXTENDING SWWD INTO CNTRL TX BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
  8. Could be a fun couple days in the panhandle...and southeastern Kansas south into northern Texas. Here are some soundings for Friday and Saturday for...Childress, Oklahoma City, Wichita Falls, Abilene, and San Angelo. Don't see -7 or lower Showwalter indicies and sweats above 600 often. With a fat cape density above the -20C isotherm...could be some supercells producing some VERY LARGE hail (if storms form). 0-6km shear of 40-50kts both days.
  9. Hopefully some folks will at least get some rain out of this. In my area we're already around 50% of normal rainfall so far. SPC did mention a possible upgrade to Slight Risk in later outlooks...well see what the new day two says. DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2013 POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP MIXING WHERE THE CAP SHOULD WEAKEN IN VICINITY OF OR JUST BEHIND THE DRYLINE. STRENGTH OF THE CAPPING INVERSION IN MOIST WARM SECTOR INCREASES UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY WITH SWD EXTENT THROUGH WRN TX. BEST CHANCE FOR MORE THAN JUST ISOLATED COVERAGE MAY EXIST OVER THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NRN PORTIONS OF WRN TX WHERE DEEPER ASCENT ATTENDING WITH AN EWD ADVANCING IMPULSE MAY OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG ALONG WITH 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS UPDATE...BUT AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND NRN PARTS OF WRN TX IN LATER OUTLOOKS. DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2013 ...CNTRL KS THROUGH OK AND NWRN TX REGIONS... CLUSTERS OF STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY WITHIN A BROAD ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION FROM PORTIONS OF THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID VALLEY REGIONS AND SHIFT EWD DURING THE DAY. IN WAKE OF MORNING ACTIVITY...LOW-MID 50S DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE ADVECTED INTO THE BROAD WARM SECTOR. STRONGER DIABATIC WARMING IS EXPECTED FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF TX AND OK INTO WRN/CNTRL KS...LIKELY BOOSTING MLCAPE TO 1000-1500 J/KG. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY ALONG SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM KS SWWD INTO THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE OVER NWRN TX. THE ACTIVITY WILL THEN SHIFT SEWD DURING THE EVENING. FLOW IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK. THIS REGION WILL RESIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE WITH AT LEAST MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE EVOLUTION. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
  10. Finally the GFS is in closer agreement to the euro...but obviously with it being several days out...a lot can obviously change. Even so...seeing this is the "closest" the two models have been so far...I attached 8 images (figured since the thread is slow right now it'll be ok...if anyone doesn't want this many let me know)...covering 3 days for Dyess AFB in Abilene, TX. and the Dallas-Fort Worth area.
  11. I totally disagree. Thursday has plenty of potential. Areas south of the Red River...and even moreso south of Interstate 20...have a good shot at severe storms...if the cap can be overcome. Loading point soundings arross my area from the NAM/GFS/euro ALL SHOW good shear and modest instability. The NAM and Euro compeltely erode the cap by 21z...while the GFS has a weak cap of about ~ -40 j/kg. Looking more closely at the data...the cap is centered around 842 mb...and is only about 50mb deep...with a cap strength of 1.8C. Overall a decent cap...but not an impossible one to break...especially with the dryline adding surface convenance...a 75 kt jet streak crossing the area at 500mb...and a right entrance region into a 110kt jet at 250mb. Granted SBcapes are ~100mb...but upon further investigation the model initial conditions are in error. The model starts with an initial condition of 68/51. Modifying more a more realistic 81/55 gives ~1700 j/kg. That would be enough to get the job done. This was from the 12z data yesterday before I left work. I'm currently interrogating the model data now and will post some AWIPS point soundings images for Texas..and possible Oklahoma. If there are any requests let me know.
  12. You may have hope for the weekend. The models show a secondary piece of vorticity diving into Baja California then moving east right at you. As a result...a weak sfc low formed and the models (this was the GFS model...but the euro showed the same thing) showed a decent precip event there. Still a ways out...so we'll see.
  13. The solar heating will be more of an issue north of Interstate 20 I think...with capping the main issue south of there. The front should weaken the EML though...as it has in several events this year...at least in central Texas...but that's if the model forecasts don't change. Using today's 12Z run...to me...supercells would be likely east of a Ozona...to Abilene...to Wichita Falls line.
  14. I agree with you Srain. I think this event will be a lot like last weeks event...with the potential to be a little higher on the tornado potential...possibilly significantly higher depending. Below are some images from todays 12Z run...for Thursday and Friday. A few things stood out to me...to keep an eye on in later model runs. First...the temporary stalling of the front (even slight retrograde over the Concho Valley - west central part of the counties) between 00Z and 06Z...due to the wave to the south. This happened weeks event. I like the instability gradient coupled with the shear...with good directional shear ahead of the front for Thursday. On Friday...the model shows the best shear post-frontal...but this could change. With it still being a few days out...we'll see.