patrick7032

Meteorologist
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About patrick7032

  • Birthday 03/16/1973

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  • AIM
    patrickCMU

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KSJT
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    San Angelo, TX
  1. It's all good thunderman. Anyways...back to he model data...how's that weather...lol.
  2. Not at all...I just thought what he said was moderately wrong with regard to the wind fields...and backed up my statements with images and reasoning. The way he began the paragraph was in a somewhat demeaning manor...so I thought maybe I needed to explain my reasoning more.
  3. I agree with both of your points...but in fairness...I can understand baro's interpretation of what I was saying...just because he knows me personally...to some extent...as does Stebo who knows me slightly (sarcasim...a first right Stebo...lol). He probably means outbreak/significant as in a HIGH RISK type event...if I'm guessing correctly. To me a good analogy is...there's fuel for the fire...more so than any event this year...we just need mother nature to strike a match. I agree thunderman as a moderate risk being significant...as operationally things "kick into high grear" here...moreso than a slight risk anyways...in terms of all the severe weather prep that we do internally and with our partners.
  4. Here are the 0-1km bulk shear images. If you look at the table listed above...and previous soundings...LCLs are at roughly 450-550m. That when combined with 25-35kts of 0-1km shear supports above 60% chances of a tornado. I'm not predicting an outbreak...I'm just saying the potential is there for a decent event.
  5. Most folks know localized in user defined based on how it's used in a sentence. I didn't mean to give the impression that I thought you were saying no potential. I just wanted to get an idea area wise what coverage you meant.The risk area is nearly 200,000 sq miles...and 827 miles long...so to me that isn't a "localized" area/threat. As for the wind fields...the 0-1km shear magnitudes are 25-35 kts...which favor supercells with sigtor POTENTIAL. Not saying it's gonna happen...but there is enough shear there. Both the euro and GFS show that. 0-6km bulk shear magnitudes of 40-50 kts are also supportive of the supercell potential. I attached a few images to stress what I meant potential wise from a shear standpoint. Soundings show the cap eroding (see earlier soundings posts)...and dews already in the lower 60s will increase to at least the mid...if not upper 60s. The LFC heights look okay...but area a little bit of a concern to me. I'll upload the AWIPS magnitude data later.
  6. Fort Worth had a nice discussion about next weeks event. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 239 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2013 AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE LIKELY BETWEEN 2000-3000J/KG WITH LITTLE CIN REMAINING LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE POSITION AND TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE DRY LINE SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BECOME ACTIVE. SUPERCELL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE NW ZONES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE HIGHEST POPS OF 30-40 PERCENT WILL BE PLACED. AFTER SUNSET...STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVLEOP ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE NEAR AS COLD AS LAST WEEK/S FRONT...AND THE CHANCE OF IT OUTRUNNING THE UPPER FORCING AND UNDERCUTTING THE STORMS IS MUCH LOWER. MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE RAIN AND STORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO 50-60 PERCENT. OUTSIDE OF THE NW ZONES THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. PREFER THE ECMWF TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...AS THIS MODEL REALLY HAS BEEN TOUGH TO BEAT OVER THE LAST MONTH. STRONG NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SEND LOW TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE 50S SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. ELEVATED RAIN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CLEAR THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY FROM WEST TO EAST WITH CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 10MPH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD PREVENT A FREEZE OR FROST OVER THE AREA...BUT LOWS WILL STILL DROP INTO THE 30S IN MOST AREAS BY FRIDAY MORNING. A COOL BUT NICE DAY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER EAST TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...WITH POSSIBLE FROST IN THE EASTERN ZONES. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS...BUT STILL COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
  7. I agree for the most part...just curious what you meant by a "localized" event. I wouldn't say this has a significant outbreak potential just yet...but think it could be respectively decent depending. The GFS post last night was just a wwhhoooaa comment type post. I think the best approach would be to use a blend of the model frontal positions and timing. Right now...based on data...I think the day 3 and 4 risks look valid...with 4 obviously being the better day. The best initiation corridor (again based on current data...even straight off the euro)...would favor a Brownwood - Wichita Falls - just north of Lawton line. Either way it should be an interesting day...seeing if stuff goes up.
  8. I'm not sure what data you're looking at. Even the euro shows a very good moisture return...with a good shear and instability profile for southern Oklahoma into west central Texas...and points east. I guess maybe you were talking for OKC. The undercutting potential is MUCH LOWER with this event...based on current data.
  9. New 00z GFS run has the stationary front returning north as a warm front...all the way to Kansas. If this trend continues...that'll cut down the under-cutting concern.
  10. I agree with you...and hail in Seattle is a good sign of the strength of the system. I uploaded some soundings. The images are "slightly" blurry...due to the cell being on low bat. You have to click on the pics to see the full image. The top sounding is Dallas...middle is Wichita Falls...last is OKC. Also uploaded is the surface cape and LI's. Cin is minimal in the soundings with good shear. I like the helicity values and LCL heights.
  11. That's pretty amazing. I imagine Seattle doesn't get hail too often.
  12. Well...the 00z GFS trended towards the euro...but it's only one run. Even so...I couldn't resist...and loaded some soundings. Wichita Falls showed the same as Dyess AFB in Abilene...so I didn't post those. Forth Worth...and McAlster in southeastern Oklahoma did show similar values as the Tuesday soundings at Dyess...with more inhibition...around 200 j/kg. It shows potential for me...and a large part of Texas/SE Oklahoma both Tuesday and Wednesday...which is exactly why it won't happen.
  13. It'll be nice when the GFS decides to catch up to the euro again...so we can start looking at the event in more detail. The 18z GFS continues to be a "runaway train" with the cold frontal surge...having the front into my northwestern CWA and basically into the I-20 corridor by 18z Tuesday. Seeing that the euro has outperformed the GFS in several systems this year in the southern plains...will go with the euro for what to expect. The bad thing is the euro soundings have low resolution on AWIPS. Just another waiting game...
  14. I feel ya...after having 149.6 lst season in Cold Bay before transferring to Texas...I'm good on the snow biz for a bit....