csnavywx

Veer-Back-Veer profile

It's V-B-V, making that prospect even tougher than normal. It's definitely favored for a narrow forced line. On the upside, there's a bit of a remnant EML in there, especially further south, so with low WBZs and decent mid-level CAPE, small hail might be common.

KNHK at 33, Leonardtown at 32. Your thermometer might be a tad high, considering KNHK's sensor is very close to the water.

Dover radar clearly showing (via echo tops) a mixture of weak upright and what is probably slantwise convection helping rates towards BWI and DCA atm. Good lapse rates aloft are helping a lot today, aiding what would otherwise be pretty mediocre lift.

Yeah, at or below freezing most/all of the night with a freezing drizzle/sleet base is a great way to start for accumulating snow.

CC on radar shows pretty steady progress of the snow/sleet line. Should clear the western shores here in the next 60-90 minutes and progress across the bay. Some shallow convection showing up in echo tops already.

Cloud depths are already beginning to increase again. LWX VAD profiler shows tops increasing from 10kft to 14kft in the last hour.

Nice band of convection heading up into SW Va and into central NC. Plenty of lightning with it. Should start to see that rapidly re-seed the lower layers with ice crystals and get precip going again in a hurry from SW-NE. 32F line is already down to Leonardstown to Easton to Dover, which is a further southeast than it was progged to be at this point.

Are you getting accretion from that freezing drizzle in Easton? I've noticed the obs have fallen to freezing with some wind there.

It's been surpassed nowadays.

It's the RAP, who cares.

To be fair, there's still some uncertainty there (and thus bust potential). It's a fragile setup, though it's getting harder to ignore the chorus of a low tucked in 50mi e of WAL and decent convectively-enhanced banding tomorrow. Only additional problem I see on further analysis is the potential for a later changeover closer to the eastern shore. That warm nose will be resilient for a while until heights crash and lift can act robustly on that layer.

That warm layer had me extra worried yesterday. It still worries me, but if we get some good convection or release of instability to enhance the synoptic scale lift tomorrow across the DGZ (as is being progged currently), then those fat dendrite aggregates will survive a shallow warm layer a lot easier.

I actually prefer to wait and put this up in Bufkit if at all possible. The 06 GFS pretty much showed the same thing in Bufkit tomorrow morning, including centering the best lift around the DGZ and entraining supercooled water into any updrafts that do form.

Hard to dislike this sounding tomorrow morning: Note the weakly sheared, nearly unidirectional flow from 700-350mb, especially in the moist neutral to weakly unstable layer from 650-400mb. Definitely favorable for banded, convectively-enhanced snow. Or at the very least, very weakly stable, which tends to aid synoptic scale lift. In the case of released instability, lifted parcels will originate at a temperature from about -5 to -10C, meaning supercooled water is entrained into any updrafts that form. This means a mixed-phase cloud is possible that can produce charge separation. I'd say some thunder is possible tomorrow morning and mid-day if these soundings are correct.