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About csnavywx

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    Lexington Park, MD

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  1. About 0.5Tg of SO2 so far. Not enough to be important to climate on its own. About 2-3% of Pinatubo's numbers.
  2. https://twitter.com/airesEO/status/1780839755011518889/video/1
  3. Weird that they classify those two periods as triple dips. 73-76 looks like a bog standard double dip to me (with a cold neutral phase in between). Does 98-01 qualify either? The 3rd "event" is just two < -0.5 trimonthlies. Pretty sure you need three here to officially qualify but I could be misremembering. 1908-11 or 1890s looks like the last time we had one.
  4. The sun was 0.6-0.7% dimmer 65 million years ago. You don't need as much CO2 for a given temperature this time around. Antarctica glaciated around 650ppm, but my guess is that due to solar luminosity increases, you'd only need around 550-600 to deglaciate it this time around. Humans do not appreciate just how late in the game we showed up and how lucky we are for CO2 to be as (relatively) low as it is now. Another 200-300m years and this planet is going to be a permanent hothouse. Edit: To correct "brighter" to "dimmer" as intended.
  5. Sweet. Best of luck to ya and send us pics, man!
  6. I think I'd avoid IL altogether at this point. 250mb jet position and shared energy area is a dead ringer for getting washed out by thicker jet cirrus. Guidance has just started picking up on it and now dprog/dt is starting to trend the wrong way. That shit will come in fast and you won't have time to reposition adequately. It'll look fine in the morning and by lunch, you'll be screwed.
  7. Honestly, I'm afraid it's largely going to be a shitshow. There will be a few places that don't have any problems, but this is par for the course for April climo. The best one was always probably going to be Aug '17, though. The areas that *look* like the best (near STL/Carbondale) probably won't be because of thicker jet cirrus moving in at the last minute (that isn't being well forecast) and the little room you get to maneuver in IN/OH inside the dry slot will be crowded as fuck because everywhere else isn't great. Get too far east in OH and you're dealing with stratocu. Try to avoid it altogether and head to ME and you're running into a massive fresh (but melting) snowpack and less than stellar road network, and crowded too as most of the cities down south empty out to head there.
  8. Cold core spring upper lows are the best. Need very little lift and instability to get them to work their magic and they usually produce strong winds and small hail with ease.
  9. Reinforcing this conversation wrt Ortiz-Bobea et. al with this new paper, which attempts to quantify CC's effect on food inflation. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-01173-x#:~:text=Evaluating these results under temperature,amplify by 30-50%. TLDR, it's a lot. Enough that we should expect to see what's happening to cocoa in more commodities (sharp squeezes and dumps that don't quite correct back to the original level over the longer run). Inflation volatility also increases. Does not bode well for either food or fixed incomes that rely on government bonds. A persistent 50-150bp of headline inflation will cause a significant devaluation across the board and also hamper any equity price runs via bond volatility spikes.
  10. Freezing levels are so low, it doesn't take much convective depth in this case to get lightning and small hail, given where the cloud bases are.
  11. Feelin pretttttty good about this one from yesterday:
  12. I think we all know who's sock that is by now and it's because they don't think the data is real. When a good scientist gets new data, they change their opinion. When most people get new data, they change the data.
  13. Solar and EV equity prices continue to be smashed, with the TAN ETF down 16% so far this year and 43% y/o/y. Even the best positioned companies are suffering pretty heavy balance sheet hits due to higher rates and higher capex costs, despite hardware component price declines. Domestic EV makers are being hit in particular due to slumping demand and are sensitive to higher financing costs. Unless those margins can be improved, R&D and capex will start taking a hit and these deployment rates are going to suffer as a result. Like I mentioned before, costs are important, but we live in a capitalist system -- profit margins are even more important! I was hoping we'd get some interest rate cuts this year, but the market is starting to price those back out as core inflation remains too sticky/resilient.
  14. Remember 10 years ago, when every denier was crowing about "flat temps since '98", increasing Antarctic sea ice and an impending "grand solar minimum"? Imagine saying that, then looking at this graph and *still* wanting to short sell it.
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