csnavywx

Another insane autumn. Starting to see these open water areas stick around a lot longer into the fall now. It will be interesting to see how late the Chukchi stays open this year. That side has become a serious weak point for the pack during the summer melt as that region has transitioned well away from having any persistent ice cover.

I think we'll find that the high CI (convective instability) environment (not unlike typically found in the WPac -- with high environmental tropopause levels) helped significantly.

Lost power for about 9 hours down here last night. Impressive winds most of the night. Measured ~40G55 nearby. Lots of lightning and very heavy rain. 3.54"

Again, we had measurements outside the main eyewall and RMW of 100 sustained before equipment failure. Full stop. Same thing likely happened at Tyndall. I’m familiar with ASOS instrmentation and operation. It’s borderline remarkable that sensor even made it that far.

I’ll be brief because I am on a phone atm. There were at least two stations with direct measurements of 100 sustained outside the RMW. FSU and about 40 to 50 miles east southeast of landfall. The FSU station was an offshore wind. Both only grazed the eyewall.

Yeah, this was an issue during Katrina too. All those sensors got blown out pretty quickly as it made LF. It ended up being a decent proxy for the more severe wind damage. I believe even Meridian, MS got knocked offline in that case.

I can't find any sensors that survived that eyewall. There's a couple that grazed the edge and got to about 95-100 sustained. Most of them cut out right before the RMW really hit.

And there it is. Wow.

000 URNT12 KNHC 101751 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018 A. 10/17:09:50Z B. 29.97 deg N 085.64 deg W C. 700 mb 2402 m D. EXTRAP 922 mb E. NA F. CLOSED G. C18 H. 138 kt I. 186 deg 12 nm 17:06:00Z J. 287 deg 129 kt K. 187 deg 9 nm 17:07:00Z L. 133 kt M. 117 deg 15 nm 17:23:30Z N. 224 deg 152 kt O. 117 deg 12 nm 17:22:30Z P. 14 C / 2962 m Q. 19 C / 3048 m R. 10 C / NA S. 12345 / 7 T. 0.02 / 1 nm U. AF301 1514A MICHAEL OB 22 MAX FL WIND 152 KT 117 / 12 NM 17:22:30Z SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB TT has that 138kt rain flagged though.

Ugly southwestern eyewall making contact now. Going to be just as bad as the front.

Yeah, perusing visible shots, it looks like there was a sweet spot right around there that was almost totally clear overhead. Would make for some once-in-a-lifetime shots in the clear light of the day.

Did anyone actually get into the eye? Would probably be some incredible photos and videos with how clear it was on vis.

Yikes, that's insanely high for a (relatively) compact system.

Seems like a good time to point out that the severe wind damage will go well inland. Katrina produced some severe damage all the way up through northern MS and TS force winds all the way to KMEM. Michael looks to put her to shame in that department. With strong baroclinic forcing coming in tomorrow, I fully expect this thing to be producing TS force winds all the way to the mid-Atlantic coast. Going to be a ridiculous amount of power outages along the way.

FSU Panama city sustained at 100mph from the northeast (offshore wind!!).