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  1. The NMME and IMME average has been trending that way as well, with the CFSv2 being one of the lowest forecasts. However, I would want to see at least one good longer-duration WWB event before the end of March to start buying into these forecasts.
  2. If it turns out to be a biggie, it would help weaken the jet and set up some blocking. A bit of a different situation from November, where the vortex hi-tailed it to Siberia and helped turbo-charge the Pacific jet. This would be a much different scenario.
  3. A spark of life has potentially emerged: Also see: https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/Current/seasonal_strat/zmplots/T___lat_p_70N-90N_zm.pdf
  4. Well, being opaque to infrared is important to your question. If you add more, it follows that more infrared is absorbed and re-radiated by the gas as it tries to escape. This increasingly interferes with the Earth's natural blackbody radiation to space. I think a better way to view it (rather than "going in reverse") would be to view it as slowing the flow of heat to space. You already intuitively know this from real life experience. A cloudy night is warmer for the same reason that CO2 warms the planet -- it slows the flow of heat to space. This causes the atmosphere and surface to warm, which raises the blackbody temperature and causes the Earth radiate infrared more strongly -- at least until equilibrium is reached again.
  5. CO2 is transparent to shortwave radiation (e.g. sunlight), but opaque to longwave radiation (e.g. infrared). That's the reason you can't see CO2 with your eyes, but if you were to film a lit candle through a container of CO2 with an infrared camera, it would disappear. By the way, you can perform the latter as experiment at home. All you need is a transparent airtight container, candle, a bottle of CO2 or dry ice and a camera capable of seeing infrared.
  6. I assume you're referring to ice cores. There isn't an 800-year gap in those cores as this was later found to be an effect of (very) slow bubble migration within the cores. Once this physical property is adjusted for, the gap disappears, leaving about as perfect a correlation as you can find in nature. Your soda can observation of the reduced solubility of gasses at higher temperature nonwithstanding, I'm really confused as to where you got the impression that it was ONLY CO2 that was claimed as being the only driver. There's an avalanche of literature to suggest otherwise. Aerosols (natural and anthropogenic), water vapor, albedo, solar, dust and natural variability are all extensively studied within the literature (and that's just a partial list). We just happen to find that after all the chips are down on the table that CO2 is the biggest driver at this point in time. I understand why folks have a hard time thinking it could be anything else other than the sun, but after careful measurement (and careful proxy records), TSI only varies about 0.1% off the mean value. Other similar spectral class stars show the same kind of variance. In this respect, our star is like others of its size -- a remarkably stable long-lived configuration that made life here possible in the first place. If it wasn't, life would have been aborted long ago in a deep freeze or frying pan. So, unless you want to refute decades of careful work in this area (not only by the climate science community -- but astronomy and astrophysics in general), I'm not sure what to tell you. If you want a piece of simple proof, one need only look at the stratosphere. In an external sun-driven (or "geomag") warming, you would expect all levels of the atmosphere to warm. However, we do not see that. The stratosphere grows colder as the troposphere warms, something you would only expect if there were an excess of infrared radiation being trapped near the surface.
  7. Rocket-shipping into oblivion..... Aggregate 2016 anomaly was -1750, so assuming the spring temperatures are matched this year, we should be able to hit that number. Warmer temps not out of the question, of course, but we're totally on track to at least blow last year's weak refreeze season start totally out of the water. In fact, since it's already January, I'm going to say -2000 is not totally out of reach here -- which is perilously close to the number needed for ice-free conditions on a top 3 summer. Once new seasonal growth falls under the 1.6-1.7m mark, not much further warming is needed to trigger ice-free conditions, as further FDD reductions result in increasingly steep thickness growth loss per unit. For comparison's sake, an additional -650 over last year's value results in about an additional 20cm packwide thinning over the already weak start we had last year, virtually assuring a new record if the weather did a rather benign copy-cat of last summer.
  8. Stall speed again on extent. No net increase over the last 9 days. Will probably remain at/near the level it is now for another week with the upcoming warmth and storms as the Atlantic side is chewed up again for the umpteenth time this winter.
  9. Certainly looks like it. Might be sleet by the time it gets there. Cold air has a few more hours to deepen.
  10. At 28 degrees, yep. That's going to accrete quite fast. Looks like you've got a couple hours of it.
  11. Well, it's on to something. Nice batch of convection rolling up on the north side of the front right now. TSFZRA being reported in IL, would expect a nasty surprise for those folks in MI later this morning, probably some ice and sleet with your morning thunderstorms.
  12. Another ice destroyer being modeled on the Atlantic side in a few days. Hits the Kara/Barents pretty hard, but pulls warm air all the way across the pole too. Might turbocharge Fram export depending on the track (a la recent runs of the Euro). At least the Chukchi gets a break from the relentless blowtorching.
  13. Thanks for those links. Interesting results. Trick now will be pinpointing which mechanisms are most important and/or which are providing synergistic interactions or feedbacks. I have a feeling the Blue Ocean experiment was on to something, but we'll see with time.
  14. WSW for 1/4"+ ice hoisted by LSX this morning. AFD cited .1-.5" accumulation on Fri/Sat. It's questionable, but there's potential for more on Sat. night and Sun. morning -- especially if the Euro and 3km NAM surface temps work out as advertised (with the front pushing further south and a colder/drier surface).
  15. That's pretty much how I envision getting the first near ice-free September day. Combine a winter like this one (with a finish below 3500) and a summer like 2007 and you're pretty much there. Maybe not quite -- but it's pretty close. That extra 30-40cm of missing ice growth on the edges will make all the difference in the world in getting the outer periphery to melt very early on, as in 2-3 weeks earlier. That puts the CAB under the gun in July rather than August -- with a higher sun angle and a longer period of time to heat the peripheral seas. Of course, it's going take a whopper of a summer to get this to happen this early, but in 10-15 years -- not so much. It seems the ability to get a warm enough winter to stifle ice growth enough to put away all of the ice in a single summer is close to being in reach. That was a topic of discussion on this board last year. I just didn't think we'd be seeing a winter this warm so early.