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About csnavywx

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    Lexington Park, MD

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  1. It's curious that the WSJ article has NO figures, NO sources and none of the statements from ERCOT itself, which backed up the 26/34GW figure I provided. I want numbers, hard pass on the projection.
  2. Sometimes those big aggregates can get a thin layer of meltwater percolating on the outside, which makes them very reflective on radar. Wetbulbing on the outside of the aggregate can also cause them to survive longer, thus making it through a warm layer that would melt smaller aggregates or individual crystals (which end up a sleet or fzra on the ground).
  3. Expansion of echoes over the last two hours was way more aggressive than I was expecting and I even brought precip in earlier than guidance on my forecast because WAA events usually do that. Looks like a combo of strong DPVA, WAA and jet forcing are doing some serious work this morning.
  4. 26GW of the 34GW shortfall was from natural gas. Even Governor Abbott mentioned this on all the local stations he was brought on to interview with. Despite the frozen turbines, the wind shortfall was much less, around 1-2GW.
  5. Yeah, it was almost pure freezing rain down here and very dependent on wet-bulbing effects due to borderline temps. Tree tops and anything exposed is absolutely loaded with ice and anything close to the ground only has a glaze. Not uncommon to see near-surface objects have only a tenth of an inch but have half an inch of accretion several feet up. Shave off a degree on this storm and it would have been a disaster here. That being said, it was a very pretty drive in today with the overnight hoarfrost that grew on the ice.
  6. Please do not post this without cross-checking its sources. While short-range climate forecasts possess lower (but positive!) skill, trying to equivocate these with GCMs is a faulty argument on several levels and requires a rebutting that would derail this thread.
  7. 11% in St. Mary's and 8% in Calvert so far. Starting to lose small limbs regularly. Have heard a few bigger ones in the woods.
  8. Got above freezing for a few hours this afternoon, but now back below with a moderate freezing drizzle. Tonight and tomorrow might get nasty with wave 2 in SoMd.
  9. I've been happy to be getting scraps down here after 2 shut-out years. Last year I had to scrape frost off my car a grand total of twice.
  10. +TSSN at 14F in south TX definitely takes the cake.
  11. Doesn't take much with a profile like that.
  12. That's some truly extreme stuff. Skew-Ts/forecast profiles are absolutely nutty looking.
  13. Good convergence and all now well NW of last night's 00Z runs.
  14. It makes sense from an operational standpoint to protect your low end at this point until more guidance picks up the trend towards a more negatively tilted mid/upper trough, especially since an error of even 0.1 to 0.2 of liquid with 20-30:1 SLRs can result in a pretty sizeable bust. But I will say that the NAM has been absolutely killing it on the east coast at these ranges, beating even the Euro/UK (with the typical caveat about using high-res CAMs cautiously for some winter events). The GFS (and the new version as well) has been trending that way the past few runs as well, so keep a sharp eye out. It wouldn't really surprise me to see some convergence on that solution in the next 12-18 hours.
  15. Busy getting shut-out of winter storms in southern Maryland nowadays, or iced (like yesterday), but this one caught my eye. Arctic powder bombs are fun and challenging to forecast.