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About csnavywx

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Lexington Park, MD

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  1. PD3.5 Lite Obs and Nowcasting

    All sleet down here.
  2. PD3.5 Lite Obs and Nowcasting

    Nice mid-level lift getting underway. Still some substantial dry air to work though, which isn't a bad thing, since we're fighting p-types. Lack of decent sfc-850 winds means it'll be overwhelmed by the ridiculous advection in the 800-500 layer. I suspect with the warm nose initially high up in the column (around 700mb), we might see some sleet try and mix in on the southern end as that warm nose strengthens. 700mb winds are going to get up to around 80kt, which is pretty intense. We'll be lucky if there isn't a sleet zone.
  3. Weak La Nina Winter

    The strongest MJO event since the 2015 just occurred. In combination with equatorial rossby waves, a long-lasting westerly wind burst has been ongoing for a few weeks now. That's resulted in a big downwelling equatorial kelvin wave. Stebo's TAO chart shows it well. That will be the death knell for this Nina once it reaches the surface, barring a big trade surge to slow it down. The WWB will subside in a few days as the MJO enters its inactive phase over the WPac, but there are some hints it may come back in a few weeks for another pass. We'll have to see.
  4. Re: Conspiracy Threads

    Dodging it.
  5. Re: Conspiracy Threads

    There are several culprits that are far more likely to explain this, including: 1) Extremely rapid growth in overall air travel. Global air travel growth from 2010-2017 was greater than the entire period spanning from the first airplane to 2004(!). Growth rates in the past few years are remarkably fast (~45% total growth since just 2012). 2) Hub changes. Major carrier expansions (including freight) and/or moves. 3) Seasonality. Contrail formation is sensitive to tropopause height and RH near the tropopause. The upper atmosphere is naturally nearly pristine (few cloud condensation nuclei) and the injection of high densities of CCN in an environment otherwise supersaturated with respect to ice will produce prolific amounts of contrails, even where there were few clouds before. The sinking motion you describe is due downward motion from imparted inertia and wingtip vortices over the first few minutes. More gradual fall is usually possible from the dissipation of this inertia, weak background subsidence and/or ice crystal fall streaks/streamers. The net effect is that newer contrails from aircraft flying at the same flight level will naturally come in higher, often by a couple thousand feet.
  6. Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    The last two years have seen some pretty stunning winter anomalies. The negative feedback from ice thickness growth hasn't really shown up as a result. There's a recent paper that's somewhat related to this by Cvijanovic and Santer (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01907-4), Though the abstract focuses on California rainfall, it shows important global changes as well. It even goes into Antarctic sea ice and responses to that as well. TLDR is while the Antarctic response to AGW has been slow (outside the oceans), the Arctic has not, and the downstream effects as a result have been fairly large. There's an opportunity (as outlined in the paper) for future Antarctic sea ice losses to dampen the Arctic-to-tropical response, but since the Antarctic is (a) slower to react and (b) has less ice to lose overall, we should probably expect more of the same in the future, if not at the same magnitude every year.
  7. Re: Conspiracy Threads

    The title says it all. I will again throw down the gauntlet. It wasn't taken up last time (for obvious reasons, I suspect). Before we see more posting more about "HAARP" or other "devious government schemes", I ask those subscribing to this to give a set of conditions under which they would be satisfied that it isn't true. If you can't do that without moving the goal posts or dragging the conversation into the weeds, then it should be discarded. That which can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence. Additionally, if you cannot think of a reasonable condition under which you can be convinced of a null hypothesis, then it is speculation at best. Speculation is fine, so long as it is presented as such. However, don't expect the rest of us to take it seriously.
  8. 2017 Global Temperatures

    Right, and that's on the low end -- or an ECS of 2.2, about as low as can be supported by the literature. Using the canonical 3K for fast feedbacks, it's 1.6C. Even a more conservative estimate for aerosol loading gives 0.4C, so the 2C limit that's harangued on about is more likely than not already busted.
  9. January Discobs Thread

    Couple of TOR warned cells out west of Richmond now. Beautiful pre-frontal trough setup with strong southeasterlies out ahead and plenty of shear. Instability is very weak, though. Another 500-1000 joules of CAPE and this would've been a significant cold-season severe outbreak.
  10. January Mid-Long Range Disco

    Looking better and better for some elevated thunderstorms starting Thursday night. Might even get some surface-based stuff Fri evening or overnight.
  11. January Mid-Long Range Disco

    Deep Thunder was terrible everywhere south of Jersey.
  12. January Mid-Long Range Disco

    Of course it did. No way in hell is a major trough that goes neutral over TX/LA/MS going to give snow to the east coast. Why are you all torturing yourselves over this one? Enjoy your January thunder.
  13. January Mid-Long Range Disco

    Ehhh.. Most of the ensembles (EPS especially) have the trough going neutral over TX or thereabouts. 60s and cool season t-storms are more likely with a setup like that.
  14. Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion

    Solid storm all around. This storm heralds a pattern change (as the big ones often do) to warmer weather in a few days. The warm-up looks fairly brief, however as the strong -AO pattern looks to rebuild out mid-month. Should bring more chances late this month.
  15. Jan 4th Coastal Obs/Disc

    6" or so (hard to measure with the 40+mph sustained winds this morning). Blowing snow everywhere. Still some light to occasionally moderate snow falling.