csnavywx

Looks either elongated or like there may be another center south of the initial wind shift area. Mid-level center is more apparent on satellite as being SW. Still displaced. Convection is a lot better but until we get some clarity on which area becomes dominant, track is going to be up in the air. The far left and right side of the envelope most likely result in a strong hurricane landfall. Fast and up the center result in a shredded system under 40-60kt of vertical shear. Cross sections clearly showing those solutions to result in a classic, textbook case of rapid eyewall collapse. It speeds up and makes landfall to the right before shear can tear it apart or slows down to the left before it reaches the hostile area and decelerates as the trough pulls away.

Shear peaked this afternoon and should be starting to relax (though still around 30kt). Should be around 20-25 by morning. Shear and movement vectors starting to align better. Not surprising we're seeing starting to see some development. Faster development here would result in a left-of-track bias due to vortex tilt "dragging" the low level circulation with it.

This is going pretty much how I expected. Careful with that ASCAT data though, the mid-level circulation is likely displaced south of the actual max low level curvature. When the steering vector gets more aligned with the shear vector in about 48-60 hr, it might be able to sneak some development in as shear drops below 20kt. Has to get through some rather brutal 35kt shear tomorrow though.

Yep, max layer shear stays 25-30kt for a good 48-72 hr before relaxing. Development will be slow and convection likely to be mostly relegated to the southwestern part of the circulation. Could easily see a south-of-forecast-track bias due to that shear.

A solid year, right up there, if not quite as good as '09 and '13. Looking at EOSDIS and AMSR, this year is definitely being held up by that now-typical ESAS arm and a remnant Beaufort arm. I was kinda hoping we'd see more of the Beaufort survive since that's where the real MYI nursery was in the past. But alas, looks like most of that got melted anyways. I think that July dipole kinda took it from a '13 kind of year and knocked it down a peg in that sector. Seems to be the key difference between the pre-and-post-2007 era. Well that and the surface warming and shoaling of Atlantic water in the Barents area.

This weekend looks glorious. Dews dropping into the 50s with low 80s highs is my kind of jam.

Yuck. Poor overnight recovery is what makes big heatwaves truly miserable and deadly. No relief.

You're being generous. He didn't even make it 5 years with this one. Him and the rest of the AGW minimizer crowd were alllllll over the place proclaiming GW was dead as the main driver when that Super Nina hit. He's like the best contrarian indicator ever. If the guy was a stock, being short would be making a killing.

The mid-deck from earlier in the day almost crapped out the entire party. We'll have another chance here this week if we can get an MCS to ride the EML instability gradient or this weekend, provided the BL doesn't get mixed out with all the heat.

We're building ourselves a bit of a trap with agricultural climate effects. Summertime temps are kept down by the increase in humidity, offsetting warming. However, this cannot continue indefinitely. Plateauing crop density and water evaporation will lead to eventual temp rises that will begin to put pressure on the crop, eventually causing this effect to fail and warming to snap back pretty quickly in a few decades.

Yep, it's been a thing for several years. You're not the only one: TLDR: A bit of reasoned speculation, but probably due to downstream effects of rapid warming in the North Pacific. Looks like a transient decadal response to me.

I can't comment on that piece specifically, but am familiar with his positions broadly. If I'm going to address something, it'll mostly be on the science side.

Let's hear what your doubts are and what you would have to see to change your mind. If you want engagement here, you need a falsifiable position to begin with.