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About csnavywx

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    Lexington Park, MD

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  1. csnavywx

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Diffusion of heat down the water column via mixing or and/or subduction under a vertical salinity gradient. Stronger winds will increase the depth of the mixed layer, bringing up colder intermediate and (in some cases) deep water to mix with near-surface waters, for instance. When combined with increased heat uptake due to GHG (and other) forcing, that causes said heat to be "buried" at depth, even though surface waters may cool. This can give the illusion that the extra heat is gone, but in reality, it has simply been mixed or subducted down. The situation can change if the circulation state (via natural variability or otherwise) changes, allowing some of that heat to effectively resurface.
  2. csnavywx

    Weak-Moderate El Nino 2018-2019

    Not much. SOI is a lagging indicator, not a leading one. U-wind anomalies in the Trop. Pac. (particularly west and central) can tell you quite a bit more about where ENSO is headed.
  3. csnavywx

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    It's possible we've turned the corner down in the SH, but it's hard to say with only 3 years. Some of the bad conditions this year are undoubtedly just weather. However, the reappearance of stronger deep convection (for example, -- Weddell Sea polynya -- after decades of absence) could mean that we're returning to a circulation regime less conducive to retaining sea ice in the melt season. A great deal of heat burial has taken place in the Southern Ocean over the past 20-30 years, so any relaxation of that pattern will of course allow some of that to resurface and augment the background GHG forcing. Interestingly, this heat burial mechanism is occurring under the Arctic as well via transport from the Pacific through the Bering and under the Chukchi Sea into the CAB. It is also coming from the Atlantic via the Barents (where the intermediate warm layer has intensified rapidly and shoaled over time). Once that reaches critical mass (10-15 years), it too will surface and bite into the CAB.
  4. csnavywx

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Warmer temps, less clouds and unfavorable winds. The last 3 years have been pretty bad, but this one takes the cake with all of the early ponding and breakup.
  5. csnavywx

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    The Antarctic season has been remarkably bad and is now dead last in both extent and by a large margin in area. It's also in considerably worse shape (concentration wise) than even 2016.
  6. csnavywx

    Crimes Against the Earth

    The difference between medicine and poison is often the dose.
  7. csnavywx

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Another insane autumn. Starting to see these open water areas stick around a lot longer into the fall now. It will be interesting to see how late the Chukchi stays open this year. That side has become a serious weak point for the pack during the summer melt as that region has transitioned well away from having any persistent ice cover.
  8. csnavywx

    Major Hurricane Michael

    I think we'll find that the high CI (convective instability) environment (not unlike typically found in the WPac -- with high environmental tropopause levels) helped significantly.
  9. csnavywx

    October Discobs Thread

    Lost power for about 9 hours down here last night. Impressive winds most of the night. Measured ~40G55 nearby. Lots of lightning and very heavy rain. 3.54"
  10. csnavywx

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Again, we had measurements outside the main eyewall and RMW of 100 sustained before equipment failure. Full stop. Same thing likely happened at Tyndall. I’m familiar with ASOS instrmentation and operation. It’s borderline remarkable that sensor even made it that far.
  11. csnavywx

    Major Hurricane Michael

    I’ll be brief because I am on a phone atm. There were at least two stations with direct measurements of 100 sustained outside the RMW. FSU and about 40 to 50 miles east southeast of landfall. The FSU station was an offshore wind. Both only grazed the eyewall.
  12. csnavywx

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Yeah, this was an issue during Katrina too. All those sensors got blown out pretty quickly as it made LF. It ended up being a decent proxy for the more severe wind damage. I believe even Meridian, MS got knocked offline in that case.
  13. csnavywx

    Major Hurricane Michael

    I can't find any sensors that survived that eyewall. There's a couple that grazed the edge and got to about 95-100 sustained. Most of them cut out right before the RMW really hit.
  14. csnavywx

    Major Hurricane Michael

    And there it is. Wow.
  15. csnavywx

    Major Hurricane Michael

    000 URNT12 KNHC 101751 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018 A. 10/17:09:50Z B. 29.97 deg N 085.64 deg W C. 700 mb 2402 m D. EXTRAP 922 mb E. NA F. CLOSED G. C18 H. 138 kt I. 186 deg 12 nm 17:06:00Z J. 287 deg 129 kt K. 187 deg 9 nm 17:07:00Z L. 133 kt M. 117 deg 15 nm 17:23:30Z N. 224 deg 152 kt O. 117 deg 12 nm 17:22:30Z P. 14 C / 2962 m Q. 19 C / 3048 m R. 10 C / NA S. 12345 / 7 T. 0.02 / 1 nm U. AF301 1514A MICHAEL OB 22 MAX FL WIND 152 KT 117 / 12 NM 17:22:30Z SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB TT has that 138kt rain flagged though.