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csnavywx

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    slonec

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  1. The GFS and GEFS skill scores have been in the tank over the last week. Euro and EPS have suffered as well, but not as badly. Use with extra caution.
  2. Yeah, EPS and GEFS are showing a pretty strong +AD pattern from D6 onwards. The CFSv2 has been barking on this for weeks and was for the current cold spell as well. It'll be interesting to see if that verifies as it would pretty much jump-start the melting season. Interestingly, looking back, the first 12 days or so of May 2012 were pretty cool as well before it flipped warm.
  3. While one should expect a decent amount of noise, I don't think the unprecedented increase in trade wind strength was expected or forecast. That changed the surface warming pattern for over a decade and heat sequestration into intermediate ocean waters. We're finding that the spatial pattern of warming over the Pacific can have a big impact on how fast warming occurs. It might be an issue of how external forcing is affecting natural variability -- and that's worth studying.
  4. Volume topped out at 20.7K km3. Terrible. Currently, there is a 1.6K gap with 2011, the previous lowest record. Near to slightly below average temps will help close a bit of that over the next 7-10 days. After that, signals are emerging for the massive NAO block to retrograde into a position to help produce a +DA by around the middle of the month and rapid warming over most of the basin. The GEFS, EPS and CFSv2 weeklies are on board for it atm, so this will have to be watched. A +DA going into the later half of this month would be bad news, as the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas won't offer up much resistance with a near total lack of MYI this year.
  5. DMI 80N temps finally fell to normal for the first time since last summer. CFSv2 weeklies showed this happening a while back (starting at least in early/mid-April). The next couple of weeks look fairly cool compared to what we've had recently (wrt normal). W3/W4 shows some action -- so we'll see if that pans out as we're coming upon the critical period for early season melt ponds in about 3-4 weeks.
  6. High eastern Pacific SSTs tend to favor melt over the Pacific and parts of the CAA, so keep an eye on that. Of course, a good PV pattern over the pole could negate a good deal of the potential damage. The Beaufort/Chukchi and Kara/Barents regions are particularly vulnerable this season due to low in-situ starting thicknesses. The Chukchi in particular didn't freeze over until early January.
  7. A couple of sharp drops on JAXA over the past couple of days (-98k and -112k) as the peripheral seas are getting hit with some pretty high temps for this time of year. Some outright melting conditions are present over the Kara/Barents Sea area as well and look to continue for the next few days, so we may have hit our maximum for the year on extent. FDD anomaly totals are piling up again after a brief pause late in Feb and early this month.
  8. Warm wedge looks like it is above 850 atm, believe it or not. Right around 775-800mb.
  9. CC and base reflectivity. Can see pretty clearly where the mixing line is atm.
  10. Keep in mind when looking at CC on radar that values > 0.95 likely indicate snow that is making it through the (still thin) warm wedge intact with some melt on the outside of the aggregate. These mostly intact aggregates are free to rime up and collide/aggregate on the way to the ground. Aggregates can survive temps above freezing briefly. Values <0.95 (and especially 0.90) indicate significant melting.
  11. Mixing line still marching north -- though starting to slow down. Should clear the city soon.
  12. You got that right -- though I remain skeptical at this point given all of the dprog/dt and the unusual setup. Given that the Gulf isn't going to get scoured by the current system, there might actually be some moisture to work with, provided the wave has enough amplitude and the TPV near Nova Scotia doesn't keep trending slower.
  13. It could, but the moisture needs to be there to turn that critical EML base layer into a convectively unstable layer (near saturated underneath immediately underneath the capping layer). We know how dewpoints have been verifying lately, so don't hang your hat on that one just yet. Also, to prevent too much diurnal cooling, there needs to be a decent cloud canopy. Regardless, a QLCS overturning that ridiculous EML could get pretty fun.
  14. 00Z Euro and GFS in pretty good agreement. That stout EML will likely cap warm sector development until large scale lift and the arrival of the cold front can erode it. Both models suggest right after dark on Tues evening, and the cap unzips along the front NE-SW. Very steep mid-level lapse rates, a stout CAPE profile across the hail growth zone (40-50% of total instability is right across the zone), and low WBZs (<10kft) should favor hail. Very strong speed shear in the CAPE zone should favor supers until it congeals into a line. Clouds and time of day will probably inhibit any tornado activity though.
  15. SMB gain at higher elevations and in the depth of winter was expected. In fact, gains can be expected in those areas right up until the temp trips over the 0C line in summer. The key for the sheet's stability and survival is the height of the summer ablation/wet zone. That has been steadily rising over the longer term.