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About csnavywx

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    Lexington Park, MD

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  1. Ehhh -- I was getting pretty solid 1-2mb/hr pressure falls before leaving the office last hour. Was down to 991mb when I left (KNHK). That looks pretty on track to me. Low is still consolidating offshore of the lower MD eastern shore. Mesoanal is a bit too far north compared to obs.
  2. First guess SST = climatological SST profile.
  3. Sorry, but these last two posts of yours are borderline offensive to those of us who actually use the data and understand how it's constructed, corrected and improved over time. There is no conspiracy or bias here. Case in point: The new ONI data is based on ERSSTv5, which replaces the previous version (ERSSTv4). The net effect on global SST and surface temperature is actually slightly negative (as per GISS): Regionally, there are some differences. Some warmer, some cooler, averaging slighly cooler. The ENSO region in 2016 was one of the regions that ended up warmer. From the ERSSTv5 page: In the future, if you're going to throw around that argument, please back it up. I have no issue with someone pointing out something that's legitimately wrong. That's how it things get improved. However, insinuating it, without providing any sort of evidence, is just plain dodgy behavior.
  4. EGNS 161550Z 18045G65KT 4000 BLSA FEW020 SCT030 BKN040 14/11 Q0997 TEMPO BKN008 Blowing sand coming in from the beaches at Isle of Man airport.
  5. Winter temperatures DO matter -- to an extent. My personal favorite is freezing degree days, but you could use other measures just as well. I use FDDs because of the easy relationship to ice thickening. Ice grows quickly at first, but growth slows as it insulates the underlying water from the atmosphere and slows heat exchange. This principle works in reverse: a degree or two of warming doesn't matter all that much at first because the loss in spring thickness is initially small. However, further warming causes increasingly larger spring thickness losses as the relationship of FDD anomalies to ice thickness is exponential. When you start dropping below 2500-3000 FDDs, the spring thickness loss rapidly drives upward. The critical point (based on PIOMAS thickness experiments) seems to be around 1.6m. Below that thickness, ice doesn't survive the summer in the basin, almost no matter how favorable the weather is. Add 2C to last winter's ridiculously warm winter and place a 2007 or 2012 style summer on top of that and you've pretty much got a blue Arctic Ocean at the end of the summer. That kind of scenario is probably 15 years away still.
  6. Translating that into Arctic temps might yield a 1C cooling. This is highly speculative, of course, and depends on the timing and size of an eruption (if any).
  7. VEI 5/6 eruptions in that portion of the globe are particularly effective in lowering global temperature. The effect would be on the order of 0.2-0.3C, provided the same eruption size. A weaker eruption might be closer to 0.1C, and a VEI6 may get closer to 0.4C. Peak cooling is generally 12-20 months after an eruption of that magnitude, though the tail can last up to 4-5 years. There is typically a rebound effect above the baseline a few years after a major eruption as masked radiative forcing emerges over a cooled surface.
  8. Arctic (66+N). Last winter will be tough to beat, as the Oct/Nov temps were extremely warm. Who knows, though.
  9. Careful of putting words in people's mouths here. Nobody is saying it's going to be catastrophic. As for the SSTs, see the latest NHC discussion. If Maria is in the left half of the envelope, she will avoid Jose's wake and probably enter a region of relatively weak shear as the ridge breaks down. She'll be near the Gulf Stream at that point, so while it's not expected to be a major hurricane at that point, it could be stronger than originally thought by that point.
  10. 12Z GFS is a little slower breaking down the ridge and a little faster with the track speed. Also, the handling of the SE upper low was a bit different and further SE, causing more of a NW bend. This solution is pretty close to the EPS control and mean from last night. Definitely a bit concerning considering the steady westward trend in most of those members. We're getting inside the D5 period though, so adjustments are typically smaller inside that timeframe. The breakdown speed of that blocking ridge is going to be pretty critical to how close she gets.
  11. As we move into the re-freeze, the summer pattern is fading and is being replaced by a now-familiar sight: strong to extreme blocking near the Kara/Barents and Scandinavia.
  12. ERC progressing alarmingly rapidly per recon data and radar. Outer max already has stronger winds than the inner max. At this rate, she'll be done in a few hours.
  13. Thermal expansion + mountain glaciers alone will get you close to 18". That's something I would treat as an extreme lower bound since it basically assumes zero contribution from ice sheets, which isn't a realistic expectation at this point.
  14. Yeah, we're talking wind speeds that can debark trees, cause ground scouring and deform reinforced buildings.
  15. Yeah, pretty remarkable warming in that region. Also see: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28386025 I'm trying to dig up some of the figures from that, but if I recall (from reading it earlier in the year) the shoaling magnitudes were pretty remarkable. On average, the water layer had shoaled halfway to the surface on the order of a decade or so and is steadily progressing eastward. It was part of the reason (along with the warm weather) why it took so long for that ice to freeze up last fall/winter.