csnavywx

ERC progressing alarmingly rapidly per recon data and radar. Outer max already has stronger winds than the inner max. At this rate, she'll be done in a few hours.

Thermal expansion + mountain glaciers alone will get you close to 18". That's something I would treat as an extreme lower bound since it basically assumes zero contribution from ice sheets, which isn't a realistic expectation at this point.

Yeah, we're talking wind speeds that can debark trees, cause ground scouring and deform reinforced buildings.

Yeah, pretty remarkable warming in that region. Also see: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28386025 I'm trying to dig up some of the figures from that, but if I recall (from reading it earlier in the year) the shoaling magnitudes were pretty remarkable. On average, the water layer had shoaled halfway to the surface on the order of a decade or so and is steadily progressing eastward. It was part of the reason (along with the warm weather) why it took so long for that ice to freeze up last fall/winter.

Building a solid inner core in a hurry. This has the potential to spin-up very quickly once it does so. We'll see what happens with the diurnal max tonight.

While I don't think we'll melt out before 2030, I really think it's unlikely we recover to pre-2007. Part of that is the consistent loss of ice in the Beaufort Gyre region, which has flipped from being a system which recirculates MYI from season to season to a system that effectively destroys it (this year included) due to melt before it can be recirculated. Another is the remarkable amount of shoaling of warmer Atlantic Water (AW) on the Eurasian side of the basin. The forcing from this oceanic input is substantial. These factors alone are enough to prevent a MYI recovery. Without a sustained recovery in MYI, a FYI dominated basin will always be susceptible to summer melt-out, even in somewhat cooler-than-average summers. The downward trend in April volume (which has a fairly large correlation of about .4-.5 to Sept. volume) has not stopped or slowed down. Unless that changes, this signal will eventually overwhelm any temporary gains due to cooler summer weather in the long run. Bottom line -- predicting imminent doom or recovery in the pack at this point kinda leaves the predictor as a hostage to fortune.

Last 4 runs of the EPS have seen a decided, steady westward shift of the track and strengthening of the WAR.

The Euro OP/EPS mean was a pretty big change as it now simply has the remnant ex-Irma trough picking up Jose and pushing it out to sea by t+120. The shear induced over the cyclone also rips it up on the way out.

That's ex-Irma. I was referring to the low/trough later (at D5-D7) north of the border/lakes.

Track looks extremely sensitive to changes in the weakness in the ridge from ex-Irma and that closed low over southern Canada/upper Lakes. That feature in particular has high dprog/dt written all over it.

This trend of a deeper trough over the western CONUS at D5-D8 is also a concern as this will amplify the downstream ridge and affect Jose's track.

As a whole, 12z EPS members showed a definite westward shift from 00Z. Will have to keep a close eye on this. Still a large spread after just 3 days, so a ton of uncertainty.

Part of the OEW is still over land, so that's unlikely to really take off until more distance from Cuba is achieved.

Pretty pronounced double wind max on that FL wind trace. May see the IEW spin back up pretty quick before getting halted by steadily strengthening OEW. Wouldn't shock me to see this ERC take a while.

000 URNT12 KWBC 092020 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017 A. 09/20:06:42Z B. 23 deg 13 min N 080 deg 27 min W C. 700 mb 2543 m D. 94 kt E. 359 deg 16 nm F. 084 deg 99 kt G. 359 deg 22 nm H. 935 mb I. 12 C / 3060 m J. 19 C / 3065 m K. 15 C / NA L. CLOSED M. CO15-30 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. NOAA2 2711A IRMA OB 06 MAX FL WIND 99 KT 359 / 22 NM 20:01:26Z SEC MAX FL WIND 85 KT; BRNG:360 deg RNG:65 nm CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 225 / 25 KTS Sfc wind was 25kt, so 933/934mb is probably the most reasonable, pretty close to extrap.