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About csnavywx

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    Near STL
  1. SMB gain at higher elevations and in the depth of winter was expected. In fact, gains can be expected in those areas right up until the temp trips over the 0C line in summer. The key for the sheet's stability and survival is the height of the summer ablation/wet zone. That has been steadily rising over the longer term.
  2. It's early, but the indications are that there's going to either be warm-neutral or Nino conditions. The critical period is now through early May. In order for a full-fledged Nino to take hold by fall, there needs to be some westerly wind burst activity in the Western Pacific. So, we'll see what happens, but the base state is favorable. Doesn't mean it will happen, but the blocks are in place, so to speak.
  3. I see the thought train going through your head. If you want to win this battle permanently, might I suggest Greenland? In all seriousness -- you need British Columbia. That place is beautiful.
  4. It would be very unusual. The only reason it's still on the board is the fact that the background +PDO/IPO stage is still quite positive and the last Nino didn't discharge as much heat as is typical for a Nino of that size.
  5. Super Nino II. Need a 2018/2019 thread, clearly.
  6. Febumay continues. Just missed hitting 80 degree mark. Got to 79 right before a mid-deck spoiled the party, which is still a record. Looking to be a very warm night with the clouds around.
  7. Depends on winds and ambient dews, but I would imagine it will have at least a couple degree effect. Easy to undershoot lapse rates this time of the year because of a near total lack of evapotranspiration.
  8. Getting very dry down here. Only 0.04" on the month. Last rain over .1" was a month ago. Definitely helping with the daytime superadiabatic lapse rates.
  9. May not have to worry about it if that SE ridge keeps trending stronger. Not even Bo is safe on that last Euro run. Sheesh.
  10. 15-20F dewpoint depressions along the CF and an occluded low doesn't excite me for severe potential. Euro basically agrees and shuts out most of the warm sector until it's further east and the flow is fully veered. Good if you like a snaky line or elevated hailers north of the warm front. Better moisture return or a later occlusion/deeper low would help.
  11. There are exceptional events than can be more or less tied to AGW through risk assessment. Sometimes a stat test is enough though. That's the case for March 2012, where you would expect an event of the same magnitude or greater to occur just 0.07% of the time. Or in simpler terms, once every 1400-1500 years with 20th century climate, or just a handful of times every interglacial, to put it in perspective. That's about right, there's an extremely small chance for STL, for instance, to pull a +14.8 anomaly without external forcing in March.
  12. Best to approach AGW attribution from the lens of "loaded dice". It's further complicated in the wintertime where the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic amplification can counteract the warming trend in the mid-lats. In a year like this, when the AO remains stubbornly positive, the Pac jet is active and most of the cold is shunted to the Asian side of the hemisphere, the impact can be to make a sucky situation worse than it would have otherwise been. In that vein, 2011-2012 and 2016-2017 won't be isolated incidents, but they (thankfully) won't be occurring every year either, at least until the warming signal begins to seriously deplete the strength of NHEM cold pools. That'll take a while.
  13. Gnarly. Looks like a cooler Sunday, but I see a real snowpack demo coming Mon evening-Wed. Strong WAA-driven warm rain Monday night with rising temps. Virtually no cold air behind that system, so Tuesday will start with a rain-soaked melting snowpack and stout, warm westerly winds. Wednesday looks even warmer. If you lose 6" under these conditions today, there may not be much left by the time Thursday rolls around.
  14. Freezing line has retreated all the way to James Bay in Canada. Pretty amazing for February.
  15. Gonna be tough to get a lake breeze circulation with 25-35kt 850s, though. Tends to destroy the temp/density gradient before it can deepen enough to move inland. Interested to see how much snow you lose in a single day under those conditions.