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csnavywx

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    slonec

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  1. A couple of sharp drops on JAXA over the past couple of days (-98k and -112k) as the peripheral seas are getting hit with some pretty high temps for this time of year. Some outright melting conditions are present over the Kara/Barents Sea area as well and look to continue for the next few days, so we may have hit our maximum for the year on extent. FDD anomaly totals are piling up again after a brief pause late in Feb and early this month.
  2. Warm wedge looks like it is above 850 atm, believe it or not. Right around 775-800mb.
  3. CC and base reflectivity. Can see pretty clearly where the mixing line is atm.
  4. Keep in mind when looking at CC on radar that values > 0.95 likely indicate snow that is making it through the (still thin) warm wedge intact with some melt on the outside of the aggregate. These mostly intact aggregates are free to rime up and collide/aggregate on the way to the ground. Aggregates can survive temps above freezing briefly. Values <0.95 (and especially 0.90) indicate significant melting.
  5. Mixing line still marching north -- though starting to slow down. Should clear the city soon.
  6. You got that right -- though I remain skeptical at this point given all of the dprog/dt and the unusual setup. Given that the Gulf isn't going to get scoured by the current system, there might actually be some moisture to work with, provided the wave has enough amplitude and the TPV near Nova Scotia doesn't keep trending slower.
  7. It could, but the moisture needs to be there to turn that critical EML base layer into a convectively unstable layer (near saturated underneath immediately underneath the capping layer). We know how dewpoints have been verifying lately, so don't hang your hat on that one just yet. Also, to prevent too much diurnal cooling, there needs to be a decent cloud canopy. Regardless, a QLCS overturning that ridiculous EML could get pretty fun.
  8. 00Z Euro and GFS in pretty good agreement. That stout EML will likely cap warm sector development until large scale lift and the arrival of the cold front can erode it. Both models suggest right after dark on Tues evening, and the cap unzips along the front NE-SW. Very steep mid-level lapse rates, a stout CAPE profile across the hail growth zone (40-50% of total instability is right across the zone), and low WBZs (<10kft) should favor hail. Very strong speed shear in the CAPE zone should favor supers until it congeals into a line. Clouds and time of day will probably inhibit any tornado activity though.
  9. SMB gain at higher elevations and in the depth of winter was expected. In fact, gains can be expected in those areas right up until the temp trips over the 0C line in summer. The key for the sheet's stability and survival is the height of the summer ablation/wet zone. That has been steadily rising over the longer term.
  10. It's early, but the indications are that there's going to either be warm-neutral or Nino conditions. The critical period is now through early May. In order for a full-fledged Nino to take hold by fall, there needs to be some westerly wind burst activity in the Western Pacific. So, we'll see what happens, but the base state is favorable. Doesn't mean it will happen, but the blocks are in place, so to speak.
  11. I see the thought train going through your head. If you want to win this battle permanently, might I suggest Greenland? In all seriousness -- you need British Columbia. That place is beautiful.
  12. It would be very unusual. The only reason it's still on the board is the fact that the background +PDO/IPO stage is still quite positive and the last Nino didn't discharge as much heat as is typical for a Nino of that size.
  13. Super Nino II. Need a 2018/2019 thread, clearly.
  14. Febumay continues. Just missed hitting 80 degree mark. Got to 79 right before a mid-deck spoiled the party, which is still a record. Looking to be a very warm night with the clouds around.
  15. Depends on winds and ambient dews, but I would imagine it will have at least a couple degree effect. Easy to undershoot lapse rates this time of the year because of a near total lack of evapotranspiration.