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About csnavywx

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    Lexington Park, MD

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  1. The amount of spread in the ensembles even 24-48hr out is pretty amazing. That said, if this thing manages to stay offshore after the westward turn, it'll have a favorable period for intensification. Oh, where have we heard that one before?
  2. The Beaufort is once again demonstrating why it is no longer a safe area to store ice, even in somewhat favorable years.
  3. This thing is pulling a Michael right now wrt to the VHT training and bursting pattern in the face of moderate VWS. The fish hook pattern (on both IR and radar) is downright ominous. The shear vector isn't as favorable as it was with Michael, but it might not make a ton of difference.
  4. Fish-hook appearance on radar with VHTs embedded pattern is typically a harbinger signal.
  5. The dominant band in the N/E quads may not take all that long to rotate upshear once the center transition is done.
  6. It will not take long for this thing to ramp up with this kind of explosive vortical hot tower activity.
  7. Sure looks like a relocation to me. Not surprising given that nuclear convective burst. That's certainly one way to do it. Considerable overshoot, to the point of being a warm spot on IR at the center of the burst (due to warmer stratospheric temps).
  8. Finally a decent burst going up just east of the center and the convection to the east is weakening. First real sign of lessening tilt and improved organization.
  9. Could just be bad luck. A lot goes on behind the scenes that we don't get to see and we've been generally spoiled by the typically very-high level of quality and timeliness.
  10. We'll get another pass here soon and may get an answer to that question. Ehhh, on second look, it looks like they might be done.
  11. I think part of the issue is that the wind field is rather broad and flat, with no well defined max near the center or anywhere else for that matter (and fairly weak at <35kt flight level for most of it), so it's not helping focus latent heat flux near where it could do the most good. The lack of a dominant band makes sense with that last recon pass. Going to have to wait for a more substantial/concentrated burst to get anything going. Otherwise, strengthening will continue to be an inefficient process. That might happen tonight as we approach Dmax, the shear lessens and the wind field gradually gets broadly above TS force (enough to trigger better LH flux).
  12. Outflow has improved, but still some E/SE tilt to the vortex with height. Would either like to see a dominant curved band (to wrap around the center) or a convective burst over/near the center in the next several hours. It has neither at the moment.
  13. Some NW'ly wind shear tonight still evident on IR and it would appear that the tilt is actually worse than earlier today. Unless we see some significant convection tonight, any significant intensification will likely have to wait until that shear decreases tomorrow afternoon. NWP having some issues initializing and forecasting sub-outflow level shear it seems.
  14. We (M and Gen Z) have precious little wealth (~4% of the total according to analysis by American Compass and others) and influence. Getting us to vote is harder partially due to the fact that many feel that they don't have a stake in the economic system and little hope for change. While I do think we'll eventually overcome that, it may take a considerable amount of time. Time we don't really have. We're just trying to hang on to survive economically and in a lot of cases -- emotionally. Case in point: Source: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6932a1.htm#suggestedcitation
  15. Bingo. This is the heart of it right here. I am keenly interested in the reply. Oh, and no goalpost moving. You're free to change your mind based on evidence, as any good scientist should, but not the goalposts.