bdgwx

Sea ice area continues to decline though. This means the ice is spreading out. As noted above this typically means extent is poised for a significant drop.

There was a few scans on that Webb City (north of Joplin) cell that suggested a satellite tornado may have made an appearance.

A PDS TOR warning has been issued for the area west of Joplin.

CC values are dropping in the couplet of the cell headed to Joplin.

And it looks like the new development along the MO/KS border just south of KC may be the next batch to watch.

According to the SPC mesoanalysis the newer VTP and EEHI parameters are very high in NE OK right now. If storms could get a bit more isolated these things might drop some strong tornadoes in a hurry. I will say the cell south of Tulsa has a lot of room to work with.

The distribution of supercells with plainly evident BWERs on the HRRR is about as prolific as I can remember.

The 21Z SREF is rather bullish for tornado ingredients. There is a fairly expansive 75 contour and even a 90 bullseye in SW Oklahoma at 0Z. There is certainly model support for a possible convective outlook upgrade at least as things stand right now.

I'm not very familiar with the climatology of Chicago this time of year. How unusual are the amounts the Euro is showing?

Arctic sea ice extents have taken a plunge recently and are now in record territory for this date dropping below 2006, 2016, 2017, and 2018 levels. So the melt season is already off to an aggressive start.

Where are these volcanoes and such that are warming the oceans at a rate of ~10e21 joules/year? How can volcanoes and such solve the faint young Sun paradox? Why did these volcanoes and such suddenly activate at the same time as the industrial revolution? Why is the stratosphere cooling? Where is the energy being trapped by GHGs going if not into the troposphere, hydrosphere, and cryosphere?

Yeah so it looks like the ensemble range on this study is 2040 to 2055 with a mean of about 2047 for the first ice-free (< 1e6 sq km) September.

You guys are so due for something big.

How much snow has Joplin received this year?

There are some heavy hitters in the CIPS analog list for this event including multiple moderate and high risk days.