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About bdgwx

  • Birthday 10/19/1977

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    St. Louis

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  1. 2018 Temperatures

    Using 1981-2010 as the baseline GISS comes in at +0.33C for January while the NCEP reanalysis is +0.28C.
  2. Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    No. First, just to clarify, the academic jargon of "ice free" typically means less than 1 million sq km of extent. Second, based on the stuff I've read the consensus seems to be in 2040-2060 timeframe in which the probabilities of "ice free" go likely. At this point though I think we're going to be lucky to make it to 2040.
  3. It's still more than week out so a lot could change. But, the EPS and GEFS means for the QPF swaths are not encouraging for Oklahoma.
  4. The Feb 1st timeframe has been hinted at by the EPS and GEFS for a couple of days now. The weekend of the 27th is a different trough.
  5. Total Solar Eclipse

    The diamond ring effect was really cool. I took my glasses off for that. It looks exactly like someone shining a spotlight at you. And yes, the descent into darkness was really rapid in the final minute. I was also amazed at how bright the corona was. It was like maybe 1 or 2 full moons. I was also amazed at how the cumulus just disintegrated. If it hadn't been for the gradual drop off of insolation we would have totally missed the view due to cloud cover.
  6. January 11-13 Winter Storm

    That's what I'm thinking. The convection appears to be tugging at the low.
  7. St. Louis has been in a snow drought as well. It's been 4 years since we last saw a bona-fide (6"+) winter storm. And as we move into February things get more depressing. St. Louis hasn't had a 6"+ snow in February in over 20 years! So I'm not holding my breath that February will bring anything of interest, but who knows. The trend has break at some point.
  8. January 11-13 Winter Storm

    This is why I love forecasting weather. You get these storms that are tough nuts to crack. Anyway, here is the experimental 3km FV3 core GFS output. 6Z still east like the op run, but the 0Z cycle was northwest of the op run. 6Z shown below...
  9. It looks like the ZR product on the COD site is messed up. I'm thinking it's scaled too high by a factor of 10.
  10. Euro is really rockin' the cold air next weekend. There is a 40F temperature swing from Thursday afternoon to Friday morning.
  11. I don't know...looks pretty good to me
  12. EPS and GEFS ensembles continue to show a pattern change in the days leading up to Christmas.
  13. 12Z EPS control run has nearly the same storm as the GFS. And the GEFS and EPS pattern evolution hints at something brewing in the days leading up to Christmas. So, who knows, maybe we're seeing a bit more skill than usual of modeling with an active pattern in the works. Or modeling could just be teasing us again.
  14. Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco

    18Z GEFS mean has that low along the US/CA border at hour 156. The 18Z GFS is in Missouri. That's a huge difference.
  15. Hurricane Maria

    Ha...yes, that makes sense now. And yes, I agree the OEW has contracted some.