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About bdgwx

  • Birthday 10/19/1977

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  1. JAXA data showed a pretty significant surge the last few days which puts Mar 2nd above the mid Feb peak. The winter max will almost certainly occur in Mar per NSIDC as well.
  2. Here is the NSIDC's update regarding the sea ice data problems.
  3.'re right. Between both Chrome and Edge cutting off support for ftp and having to switch to WinSCP to download the data I didn't even notice that it hadn't updated.
  4. I usually just go to NSIDC directly. I did see that glitch on that site earlier today. I was assuming the glitch was isolated to that site. The data on the NSIDC site looks good.
  5. We've seen a pretty substantial decline in the NSIDC sea ice extent the last few days. The last time the winter max occurred in February was 2015. So there is recent precedent.
  6. We cannot eliminate the possibility that we've seen the winter max for 2021.
  7. I don't know. That 0.03C response was for a single year. I think it is at least consistent with the hypothesis that aerosols have a big impact and that at current levels they are likely masking a lot of the GHG warming potential. Imagine if that 0.03C rate of change persisted for 10 years. That'd be a cumulative 0.3C change. I'm not really endorsing aerosols as a means of geoengineering here though. The safest thing to do would be to minimize human influence altogether. That way we aren't trying to fight one influencing factor with yet another influencing factor.
  8. We are starting to see studies regarding just how much the pandemic influenced the global mean temperature in 2020. About +0.03C per the study above and is attributable to reduced aerosol optical depths.
  9. I believe it will be in March.
  10. Oh yeah. I totally remember. I did remove UAH and RSS from my model...just didn't add any skill no matter what weighting I gave it. In fact once I started adding other inputs UAH and RSS became more of a liability than an asset. Yes. I was running the GISTEMP code on the GHCN files. The land only index from GISTEMP actually added some skill to my model with 20% weighting. Getting the ERSST data plugged in proved very difficult at least for me. I just didn't have the time to spend on doing it. The input that mattered the most for me was Nick Stoke's TempLS dataset. I gave this input 50% weighting. When it was all said and done my model could predict the GISS update within 0.05 with 95% confidence. The guys posting as takeyourmoney and James Davis were clearly very smart. They had the modeling thing figured out long before I made my attempt. I wish those two would make an appearance on here. They were always respectful and their posts were packed full of relevant to the point information. They would be fun to engage with here.
  11. James Hansen says in his December update (just out today) that he thinks the warming may be accelerating as well.
  12. Yes I did. It was pretty nuanced though. The rules said 2020 had to exceed 2016 by 0.01 after rounding to 2 decimal places. The quirk was that 2016 had been getting reported as 1.01. But I (along with several other people) had figured out that the recent addition of observations into the GHCN repository was going to likely flip 2016 back to 1.02. And my model had predicted that GISS would revise Nov down to 1.11 and report 0.83 for Dec. GISS officially reported 1.11 and 0.81 respectively so I had already seen the 2020 round down to 1.02 coming as well. I exploited that situation as well. In the end I learned a lot from this exercise. First...I learned that prediction markets aren't that good. Second...I learned a lot of details about GHCN, ERSST, how the GISTEMP code works, and how to create a model for predicting GISS updates with publicly available information with up to 4 weeks lead time. It was really fun. BTW...your comment above about 2010 being a good analog to 2020 kept me on my guard
  13. Berkeley Earth released their 2020 annual report. 2020 was the second warmest year behind 2016.
  14. 2020 has eclipsed 2016 as the warmest year in the GISS record strictly speaking. But it was of the thinnest of margins and qualifies as a statistical tie.