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About bdgwx

  • Birthday 10/19/1977

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    St. Louis

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  1. bdgwx

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Sorry, I typo'd an input into the calculator. I edited my post. It's 45 TJ. Still twice as much as Andrew though. http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/ike/Calculator_AllQuad.php
  2. bdgwx

    Major Hurricane Michael

    I'm getting an IKE at landfall with the new update of 45 TJ. Edit: Typo...it's 45 TJ and not 73 TJ. Fixed.
  3. bdgwx

    Major Hurricane Michael

    IKE computes out to 44 TJ on the 10am update.
  4. bdgwx

    Major Hurricane Michael

    You can really see the irregularly shaped eye in the radar. Doesn't the instability that causes the irregular shape and mesovortices in the eyewall have a name? Anyway, I hope a DOW or RaxPol radar is in position to get a better look.
  5. bdgwx

    Major Hurricane Michael

    As of the official 7am update the IKE is up to 47 TJ.
  6. bdgwx

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Using the IKE calculator here and plugging in the 10pm CDT advisory I get 43 TJ of energy.
  7. bdgwx

    Major Hurricane Michael

    18Z SHIPS actually had relatively decent odds of RI all things considered. It was 25% for +25 kts in 24 hours.
  8. bdgwx

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Last night's Euro run was +4.5 SD at 168 right over the pole.
  9. So by their estimate ice-free conditions will happen sometime between 2030 and 2045. That's not really out of line with other estimates. With each new study it's looking more and more likely that it'll take a miracle to make it to 2050. The IPCC is probably going to have to quicken the pace on their estimates for the AR6 report due out in 2020 or 2021.
  10. I don't have the latest data, but the last RMS HWind post on twitter had Florence at 60 TJ of energy at 18Z.
  11. bdgwx

    Old-school farming methods could save the planet

    We should definitely encourage cleaner energy sources regardless of one's views on climate change. But, we know for an absolute fact that many polyatomic molecules (like CO2) have heat trapping properties that necessarily cause the geosphere to warm. More GHG emissions necessarily mean more radiative forcing. That's not to say that naturally modulated processes aren't in play, but reducing man made emissions would reduce the anthroprogenic modulation which as of the present represents the vast majority of the total modulating effect. That's not delusional. That's fact. Regarding whether or not "old school" farming techniques can significantly mitigate the anthroprogenic element...I'm skeptical.
  12. Anyone have low down as to how Mangkhut figured out a way to break the HWRF?
  13. It looks like the core is starting to come into range of KMHX. The angle of approach is putting that right flank parallel to the beam. I'm getting 80 kt winds at 25,000 ft in that region. Not that we didn't already know, but making some guesstimates based on what little is in range I'll say hurricane force winds extend 55nm from the center on the right flank and 30nm from the center on the left flank.
  14. I just wanted to say that I learn a lot from Stebo and the other degreed mets on this forum. Actually I can extend that to many other non-degreed posters as well. So thank you all for the wealth of information you provide and stoking my interest in weather.
  15. 12Z SHIPS RI probability is 5% for 20 kts in 12 hours. It is essentially 0% for all other time frames.