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About bdgwx

  • Birthday 10/19/1977

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  1. EPS and GEFS ensembles continue to show a pattern change in the days leading up to Christmas.
  2. 12Z EPS control run has nearly the same storm as the GFS. And the GEFS and EPS pattern evolution hints at something brewing in the days leading up to Christmas. So, who knows, maybe we're seeing a bit more skill than usual of modeling with an active pattern in the works. Or modeling could just be teasing us again.
  3. 18Z GEFS mean has that low along the US/CA border at hour 156. The 18Z GFS is in Missouri. That's a huge difference.
  4. Ha...yes, that makes sense now. And yes, I agree the OEW has contracted some.
  5. I'm getting about 40 nm for the OEW and 8 nm for the IEW. I always measure perpendicular to the beam so that my reference points are at the same height.
  6. Yes, but the HMON isn't ocean coupled in the Atlantic basin so we generally disregard the actual intensity output from it. It may still be useful in the sense that it "sees" an otherwise favorable environment. But, be careful about taking it too literally.
  7. The RMS HWind Twitter account. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N900A using Tapatalk
  8. As of 18Z Maria had an IKE of 60 TJ. I'd imagine the 0Z update is going to be higher.
  9. SHIPS rapid intensification probabilities are very high.
  10. Someone already mentioned that the 12Z UKMET has Jose off the coast of SC at D6. At D7 it is still moving due north and off the coast of Delaware. Jose definitely looks like a tough nut to crack.
  11. 0Z UKMET brings Jose to a point between Florida and the Bahamas at D7.
  12. Irma clocked in with 80 TJ of kinetic energy at 15Z. It's not as powerful as Katrina, Sandy, or Isabel, but it's still a beast.
  13. I think it'll get into the 920's. 910's...not so much, but it is possible if it starts bombing out. The outflow on the west side over the last 3 hours seems to be on the decrease with signs of shearing to the north west. I'm wondering if the shear is going to arrive sooner rather than later. If it's going to bomb out it probably needs to get going in the next 6 hours IMHO. The outflow channel to the north is ripping and Irma is now in the favorable right entrance region of the jet streak. So while I don't think RI is likely...it's definitely possible.
  14. One thing I've learned is that timing ERC is an effort in frustration. However, what I can say is that over the last hour the higher elevation scans that were once clearly and unambiguously depicting two near perfect concentric rings is now showing a dramatic change. The lowest elevation scan is still a little ambiguous though. So maybe the IEW really is finally taking it's last gasp. We'll see. At any rate. I'm a little suspicious of rapid intensification at this point. 0Z SHIPS odds was less than 10%. While I do think the odds are higher than that I don't think they're higher than a coin flip. I do think we'll continue to see gradual deepening though for the next 6+ hours at least.
  15. As of 21Z Irma's IKE is at 78 TJ.