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About bdgwx

  • Birthday 10/19/1977

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  1. Also per the NSIDC 5-day average 10/17/2019 marks the all time highest negative anomaly on record. We are 3.065 sq km below the 1981-2010 climatological average. This breaks the 3.048 record set on 10/9/2012. In other words, we have less sea ice (in terms of extent) relative to average than at any point in the satellite era.
  2. Per NSIDC the daily extent on 10/17 was 5.374e6. On this date in 2012 and 2016 was 6.082e6 and 5.954e6 respectively and the climatological average is 8.470e6. Obviously 2019 is yet another year among recent years with lackluster sea ice extents in the NH. And the SH isn't picking up the slack like it was prior to 2016. Globally sea ice extents are at record lows. In fact, globally sea ice extents have spent more time below -4σ than it has above -2σ since 2016. That is certainly noteworthy.
  3. Yes. UAH's TLT product is too high to be a reliable proxy for the surface temperature. Obviously that raises concerns with contamination from the cooling stratosphere, but its been suggested that there are other methodological problems that may be partly to blame for their significantly lower warming trend estimate.
  4. I think the flag made sense at the time. I have to be first thought was that something may have been wrong with the data. That was before I had learned of the record breaking SSW event in the SH and the RSS data. Looking back through commentary it appears like a few experts had already expected UAH and RSS to record these unusually large regional anomalies and modestly large global anomalies. Until this event I had no idea a SSW event in the SH could cause such a dramatic change in the global mean temperature. Fascinating stuff. BTW...Spencer and Christy have confirmed that their data is correct. This statement now appears in the data files. *****UPDATE 4 Oct 2019***** After further analysis, September 2019 values are credible. see
  5. I'll go ahead and get this kicked off since I have something interesting to talk about. So UAH is usually super quick at publishing monthly numbers. They posted a +0.61 for September 2019 which was an unexpectedly large increase. The data file is even flagged with: *****CAUTION****** SEPTEMBER 2019 DATA APPEAR TO BE ERRONEOUSLY WARM. WE ARE INVESTIGATING. The warming seems to be the result of unusually large anomalies in both the stratosphere and troposhere in the southern hemisphere with a whopping +13.65 at the south pole on the TLS product. But...RSS just released their September data and they too show the unusual warming. Polar_Land_And_Sea_v04_0.txt It seems as though there was a sudden stratospheric warming event in the SH. And it was record breaking at least according to UAH and RSS. I'm thinking the UAH (and RSS) data may be legit. UAH may be justified in removing the warning message without any changes to the data.
  6. The September mean was 4.316 which is the 3rd lowest behind 2012 and 2007. Assuming the last 5 years of means and trajectories would approximate the remainder of the 2019 a top 3 finish in the annual mean seems plausible.
  7. Speaking of Joe Bastardi...he is listed on Principia Scientific International's member page. This brings us full circle to another topic that was discussed in this thread; namely the litigation of Mann vs. FCPP/Ball. See, it was John O'Sullivan's article posted on July 4th, 2017 on the PSI's website in which the claim that Mann refused to release his data regarding MBH98 first appeared. John O'Sullivan, it turns out, is the CEO and operator of PSI. He also happens to be an associate of Ball via their authorship of the book Slaying the Sky Dragon and had, at least until Ball ditched him, a mutual agreement that he would act as legal counsel for Ball. Except...that O'Sullivan is neither an expert in climate science nor a lawyer. But, in a strange twist, he did happen to find himself involved in the Mann vs. FCPP/Ball case anyway. I'll let you guys read the relevant court documents here and here and make your own judgement regarding Mr. O'Sullivan and Bastardi's support of him and his site.
  8. It's this study. The claim is that the recent warming and future warming of 3C by 2600 can be explained by the distance between the Earth and Sun decreasing due to solar inertial motion (SIM) around the barycenter. Except...the distance between the Earth and Sun doesn't actually change as a result of the SIM as the paper had assumed.
  9. Another way of stating this result is that the climate of the Early Eocene became increasingly sensitive to additional carbon dioxide as the planet warmed. That's seems to be inline with other studies I've read. The sensitivity may start out low...say...0.5C per W/m^2, but as the planet warms it gets more sensitive to the radiative forcing and may rise to 1.0C per W/m^2 and beyond. The equilibrium climate sensitivity in CESM1.2 is near the upper end of that consensus range at 4.2 C (7.7 F). Ya his 1908 book World's in the Making Arrhenius refined his estimate of the 2xCO2 sensitivity at 4C. Wouldn't that be something if Arrhenius' prediction from 100 years ago ended up being nearly spot on?
  10. Assuming it is correct this is the largest one day NSIDC decline within ±7 days of 9/17. -111k...9-17-2019 -99k...9-13-2006 -98k...9-18-1990 -95k...9-22-2003 -91k...9-17-2010
  11. Great link. Thanks. On a global basis in the last 365 days daily highs have outnumbered lows by about 1.8-to-1. On a global basis in the last 365 days all time highs have outnumbered lows by about 4.9-to-1.
  12. After a bit more research I was able to find the court documents. It is important to point out that the Mann vs. Ball case is related to Mann vs Frontier Centre for Public Policy as well. The alleged defamatory statements by Ball occurred via an FCPP interview. The Mann vs. FCPP part of the case was settled just a few months ago. Ball was a codefendant in the same case along with 3rd unnamed party. The case number is VLC-S-S-111913 and is accessible here for a nominal fee. It's possible that the admission by the FCPP that "untrue and disparaging accusations" made toward Mann (and presumably by Ball) may have been a factor in Ball's petitioning the court for dismissal before the court made a judgement based on the merits. Seeing the favorable response Mann had with one defendant it would not be unexpected if Mann were to appeal the dismissal against Ball. Refer to the FCPP's letter below.
  13. Of the TVCN members 0Z ECMWF, 0Z UKMET, and 6Z COAMPS go east of FL, 6Z HWRF goes into FL, and 12Z GFS goes into the far eastern GOM.
  14. 932mb near Boston. Edit: That was the 0Z cycle. 12Z cycle isn't out that far yet.