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About bdgwx

  • Birthday 10/19/1977

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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    St. Louis

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  1. My hometown St. Louis obliterated the previous record by 7F yesterday. Sent from my Pixel 5a using Tapatalk
  2. Based on the consilience of evidence...GHGs, aerosols, and land use changes. And at the risk being labeled stubborn I'm still not so sure Hunga Tonga isn't contributing a tenth or two to the EEI.
  3. Yes. Solar output is correlated with warming/cooling of the climate system. The modulation is at most 0.4 W/m2 of radiative force from trough to peak. To put that into perspective the Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) is currently around +1.9 W/m2. So this uptick in solar activity accounts for at most 10% of the energy uptake. Of course, once SC25 peaks and solar output drops in the next few years the solar effect will turn negative. The rate at which the climate takes excess energy will decline a bit as a result, but the EEI still going to be significantly positive meaning that the planet will continue to warm.
  4. Michael Mann was just awarded $1,000,000 in his defamation case against Mark Steyn and Rand Simberg for equating his work in MBH98 and MBH99 to the molestation of a child. https://apnews.com/article/climate-change-defamation-michael-mann-penn-state-61289ee2d8d2143768d28995c83899ef
  5. @ChescoWxYour hubris almost defies credulity. There is no change in heart here that I can see. I'll grant you the last word.
  6. @ChescoWx I'm not going to waste my timing explaining something to you a second time unless you tell me why it will be received differently this time. If you tell me that you now form your position around facts and the consilience of evidence then great. I'd be happy to rehash things with you. But if you're going to ignore what has already been presented like what you did last time and instead form a position that is not based on fact and/or contrary to the consilience of evidence then I have no choice but to think you aren't going to receive the information any differently. Asking the same questions with the same insinuations as last time is not an effective way of convincing me you've had a change in heart in how you deal with facts and evidence.
  7. First...the adjustments weren't all downward. Second...yes, we did explain why the adjustments were made to the 4 stations in your table. In fact, I think I posted the changepoint/breakpoint analysis for each one of them. I'll ask again...What has changed this time? Why do you expect us to repeat it all this go around? Will it be received any differently?
  8. This is what I mean. This has already been hashed out with you. We have given you links to the changepoint/breakpoint analysis for stations. We've posted examples of those analysis for stations you've mentioned. We've posted links to literature explaining why station measurements are biased, why corrections must be applied, how those corrections are applied, and the verification of those corrections. We've even posted links to the source code that you can use to make the corrections on your own machine. And yet here you asking us to hash this out with you yet again. What has changed this time? Why do you expect us to repeat it all this go around? Will it be received any differently?
  9. You are sealioning. It has been explained to you many times how adjustments are made and why they are necessary and appropriate. You are doing the digital equivalent of sticking your fingers in your ears and babbling incoherently so that you can feign like we haven't already addressed it.
  10. We have a new record in the OISST dataset in absolute terms. As of January 31st, 2024 the average SST was 21.10 C. This breaks the previous record of 21.09 C set on August 25, 2023. Somewhat concerning is that the peak usually occurs in February or March. Will it go higher?
  11. Antarctic sea ice extent for 2023 achieved a new average low of 9.85e6 km2. This breaks the previous record from 2022 of 10.73e6 km2 by a significant margin. As of January 29th, 2024 sea ice extent is just above what it was in 2023. It looks like the trajectory will take it near the record minimum first set in 2022 and then eclipsed in 2023. One hypothesis I've seen is that the persistently low sea ice extent in the SH could be evidence of a global circulation pattern change induced by the broader global warming. It's possible that the 2020's could be the decade of low SH extent and relatively high NH extent. If the global circulation pattern reverts to the mean the see-saw between the SH and NH could flip again.
  12. All of the data points are in. The composite trend since 1979 has increased from +0.18 C/decade at the end of 2022 to +0.19 C/decade at the end of 2023.
  13. Back in June I predicted 1.05 ± 0.09 C for the annual mean reported by GISTEMP. They actually reported 1.17 C. My model, like everyone else's, failed badly this year.
  14. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/152313/five-factors-to-explain-the-record-heat-in-2023
  15. https://berkeleyearth.org/global-temperature-report-for-2023/
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