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bdgwx

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About bdgwx

  • Birthday 10/19/1977

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  1. Saturday might be a player as well in Missouri.
  2. bdgwx

    Bulk Shear Formula

    I don't think the elevation makes a difference since normally you specify which layer the bulk shear is covering anyway. So in this case you'd just say the bulk shear in the layer 5000-8000ft is 32.5 kts. I have seen some literature actually divide by the depth to get the units as s^-1 as a way of expressing the shear in relation to the depth. So in that case you'd just divide by the depth after converting 32.5 kts to m/s and 3000 ft to m first. Obviously the units are the same as vorticity once you do the division so this is one way of quantifying the horizontal vorticity of that layer. The RAOB sounding program actually does show shear in this manner.
  3. bdgwx

    Bulk Shear Formula

    I believe you use the law of cosines. c^2 = a^2 + b^2 - 2ab*cos(gamma) So a=15, b=40, and gamma=270-220 Then sqrt(15^2 + 40^2 - (2*15*40*cos(50))) = sqrt(225 + 1600 - 1200*0.64) = sqrt(1057) = 32.5 kts You can play around with special cases such as gamma = 0 or gamma = 180 to see that the shear would reduce to the trivial sums (40 - 15) = 25 and (40 + 15) = 55 respectively.
  4. bdgwx

    'Tis the season, but no one wants it

    Even the GEFS and EPS are suggestive of tropical development in the GOM next week. The GEFS is more more bullish and earlier with genesis, but both generally show it.
  5. bdgwx

    Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    I noticed on more than one occasion that the RFD surges encroached too far into the inflow notch as I was virtual chasing from laptop at home.
  6. bdgwx

    Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    HRRRX lights up the warm sector like a Christmas tree tomorrow. Lots of big boy UH tracks along the entire MO/IA border with plenty of activity to spare in central MO as well. The GFS really likes the idea of a prolific break out of activity in MO. 21Z SREF was modestly bullish for tornado ingredients in northern MO. There's still a lot of mitigating factors, but I agree that tomorrow may have more potential than today.
  7. bdgwx

    Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    That's what I was thinking. The radar makes the case for two tornadoes in that supercell.
  8. bdgwx

    Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    15Z SREF rolling in. It's suggestive of a short period of tornadoey stuff near that MOD risk around KC close to or after sunset and that's about it for Wednesday. It's modestly bullish for the KS/MO border area on Thursday. I thought the 12Z Euro was kinda of "meh" for both Wednesday and Thursday. The low level shear just doesn't look great in terms of magnitude prior to sunset on Wednesday and then it's veering to the east too much on Thursday. Who knows...expectations seem low enough at this point that maybe either Wednesday or Thursday will overachieve.
  9. bdgwx

    Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    The 3Z and 9Z SREF runs continue to suggest that there is better overlap of tornado ingredients on Thursday than on Wednesday. That's a pretty respectable mid level jet streak approaching the KS/MO border on Thursday. But, will the low level jet veer too much to the east too soon? Maybe. In terms of forecasting for chasing I can't say I'm super impressed with the setup on either day.
  10. bdgwx

    Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    Yep. I totally agree about Thursday. I think there was enough confidence this morning to warrant a 15% for Thursday. I also acknowledge that it's a tougher nut to crack for various reasons including the prolific ongoing overnight convection from Wednesday.
  11. bdgwx

    Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    There's just not a lot of low level wind shear until close to or even after dark on Wednesday especially in Kansas where odds are the highest for convective activity per the EPS and GEFS. And FWIW the SREF from the 9Z and 15Z runs is more bullish with tornadoey activity on Thursday in far eastern Kansas and into Missouri.
  12. bdgwx

    Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    I was going to mention Thursday as well too. The 12Z EPS suggests that convective activity is maximized pretty much right in the center of the SPC's 30% area for Wednesday. Maybe slightly higher odds on the NE portion of that area if we are splitting hairs. It looks like the CIPS analog guidance page didn't update today.
  13. That is a huge powerhouse trough and upper level low showing up on the 12Z EPS. By 18Z on Friday (hour 174) it has 3 fully closed 500mb isohypses and that's just an ensemble mean. The 12Z GEFS also shows big troughing during this period. That's a pretty strong signal for a big weather maker. And it's that time of year so...
  14. We may see some accumulating snow in MO this weekend.
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