ChescoWx

Rain looks to overspread the county from SW to NE over the next couple of hours. Rain should fall much of the day before ending this evening. The active weather pattern looks to continue this week with more rain chances on Wednesday and again next Saturday. Temperature wise we will average above normal today and Wednesday but below normal all of the rest of the days this week. The record high for today is 73 degrees from 1896. Our record low is 13 degrees from 1932. The daily rain record is 1.52" from 1944. The snow record is the 4.5" of wet snow that fell 10 years ago today back in 2012.

So I went back and checked on records for 134 winter seasons here in Chester County back to the winter of 1888-89. Only 30 times or 22.4% of seasons do we see a below normal December - January - February. Across the last 13 decades we have been very consistent with no significant changes in number of such winters by decade. 1890's (2) / 1900's (3) / 1910's (2) / 1920's (3) / 1930's (2) / 1940's (2) / 1950's (2) / 1960's (3) / 1970's (3) / 1980's (2) / 1990's (2) / 2000's (2) / 2010's (2)

We have the same total snowfall forecast....I am smelling consensus!! LOL!!

Even outside of a La Nina winter - it has not happened that often - I will have to go back and check on that...

A nice day today to get out there a get those Christmas decorations up. Sunny skies with temps slightly above normal in the low 50's. Rain tomorrow by late morning and lasting till Sunday evening. Chillier Monday and Tuesday with more rain chances on Wednesday before a turn to below normal temps by Thursday. The record high for today is 70 degrees set way back in 1896. The record low is also the coldest reading for the month of November at just 5 above zero set today back in 1938. The record rain is 1.52" from 1944 and our record daily snow occurred just 8 years ago with the 5.3" of snow that fell in 2014.

We picked up a little light rain with 0.06" in the bucket this morning. We should see skies start to clear with the winds getting a bit gusty out of the WNW. Temps should peak around 50 degrees by early afternoon and that start to slowly fall. Temps tonight should fall to just above freezing except maybe 32 degrees in some of the higher spots in Western Chester County. Beautiful day tomorrow with temps struggling to escape the 40's (normal high for tomorrow is 50 degrees). Rain should start again by late Sunday morning and last into the evening. We could pick up up to 3/4" of rain. The rest of the last week of November and into December looks to see temps right around normal with more rain chances on Wednesday. The record high for today is 74 degrees back in 1979. The record low is 12 degrees set in 1938. Record rainfall was the 2.11" from 1964. Our record daily snowfall was the 6.0" that fell today also back in 1938.

If Steve agrees with me....it must be correct - right??

Happy Thanksgiving to all of you! After a frosty start, especially in the lower elevation locales this morning... It looks like a great weather day on the menu for today with high temps a little above normal in the mid-50's across the county. It looks like some rain moves in by early tomorrow morning but should be over by 10am. Sun returns by afternoon. More rain on the way for Sunday into Sunday night. After that it looks dry till mid-week with temps averaging a bit below normal on Tuesday. The record high temperature for today is 69 degrees set back in 1979. Our record low is just 10 degrees in 1989. Record rain is the 2.08" that fell in 1950. The record snow is the 5.3" that fell today way back in 1898. That began what would be the all-time snowiest winter season in Chester County history. By the end of that upcoming winter 1898-99 we would see 95.0" of snow. Our 2nd snowiest winter occurred in 2009-10 when we recorded 86.7" of snow.

All about radiational cooling - elevation made a big difference over just 2 miles around here. I could go no lower than 32.1 while 2 miles away but 300 feet lower at Marsh Creek hit 23.1

Big differences of around 10 degrees in low temperatures across the County this morning. Lower elevation spots below 500ft ASL were well down into the 20's while some higher spots were no lower than the mid-30's. Beautiful weather on tap both today and tomorrow with slightly above normal high temps of just past 50 degrees. Some rain is possible on Friday but not a wash out. A better chance of rain is Saturday night into Sunday morning. The record high for today is 73 degrees set back in 1931. The record low was the 11 degrees set in 1989. Daily rain record is the 1.30" from 1961. Our daily snow record was the 2.9" that fell today back in 1989.

I am really liking the look of where the models are trending (not quite there yet) I really suspect models will begin to better see more and more high latitude blocking and/or amplification of those western ridges in the next 2 to 4 week time frames. This should then result in another cold weather outbreak across the east....but this time we should indeed see snow threats increasing as we move later into the first week of December. Buckle up....

White Christmas anyone? What can go wrong with only 3 weeks to go?? 2009 redux - Book it!!

Below is my attempt at a Winter Forecast for Chester County PA. I identified 12 analog years that had similar average temperature departures for October (~2 degrees below normal) and November (~2 degrees above normal). Ten (10) of the twelve (12) featured below normal temperatures - with 8 of the 12 years having above normal snowfall. The coldest analog season was 1977-78, the snowiest was the winter of 2009-10 when we were buried under 86.7" of snow. The warmest was 1948-49, the least snowiest 1930-31. Overall, I predict below normal temperatures for December, January and February, but above normal March temperatures. Seasonal snowfall will be above average at 47" vs our 36" of average snowfall featuring above average snowfall for all winter months with the exception of March Below is the chart with the actual readings for the analog years. Let me know your thoughts and if any questions let me know. Wish me luck and get those snowblowers ready!!

I know EPAWX has also moved away from any seasonal forecasts.....that said I am working on my own winter forecast today....It should be just as good as my past ones!!

Looking more and more likely we reload into another cold pattern with multiple snow chances between the 6th and 22nd of December. Models starting to come around to this idea....