chubbs

I made an initial bet at Kalshi this week. Looks like a big enso swing this year and per chart below the satellite measured energy imbalance is at record levels.

Another WWB induced Kelvin wave moving east and building in the west/central Pacific subsurface over the past two weeks. Sign of ongoing transition to el nino.

Typical early nino shift in Pacific warm water volume with west decreasing and east increasing. Following triple nina, warm water values in the west Pacific have been at record values which would allow a strong/super nino. We''ll have to see if potential is realized.

IPCC scientists have recently updated the state of the climate system through 2022. Its turning out to be an interesting decade. Chart below shows human induced warming, which is calculated from observed temperatures; and man-made forcing estimates on a per decade basis. After a period of relative stability from roughly 1990 to 2015, man-made climate forcing and global temperatures are increasing at a more rapid rate. The recent forcing increase is mainly due to air pollution control in China and other developing countries, as global CO2 emissions are leveling off. Below is the closing para from the paper: "This is a critical decade: warming rates are at their highest historical level and 1.5 °C global warming might be expected to be reached or passed within the next 10 years. Yet this is also the decade that global greenhouse gas emissions could be expected to peak and begin to substantially decline. The indicators of global climate change presented here show that the Earth’s energy imbalance has increased to around 0.9 W m–2, averaged over the last 12 years. This means that there are large energy flows into the climate system and rates of human induced warming will remain high as greenhouse gas emissions remain high. Nevertheless, these warming rates do not need to be locked in as rapid emission decreases could halve warming rates over the next 20 years (McKenna et al. 2021). Table 1 shows that although global greenhouse gas emissions are at a long term high, they are beginning to stabilize, giving some hope that over time the indicators of global climate change presented here can track a real-world change in direction" https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2023-166/essd-2023-166.pdf

Will GISS break a record this year? Odds are increasing. This year trails the the top 2 years 2016+2020 for Jan-Apr, but both of those years cooled in the last 8 months of the year as el nino weakened. Recent years with large ONI increases Jan-->Dec: 2015, 2009 and 2006, all warmed in the last 8 months of the year vs, Jan-April. 2023 sits at 1.01 for Jan-Apr vs 1.02 GISS record; so back-end of the year warming like either 2015, 2009 or 2006 would produce a record. We'll see.

OK, I see your point. recent favoring of La Nina has had an impact on trends in this region. Per chart below I can go with roughly flat since 1979, which represents a cooling relative to the global mean. As to climate effects on enso. Don't think that has been resolved. A couple of recent papers linked below: 1) Recent favoring of La Nina could indicate a climate forcing that was not predicted by climate models https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL100011 2) Climate change could increase enso amplitude https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-33930-5

ENSO region 3.4 has warmed along with the rest of the globe. As described in the enso blog linked below, NOAA uses a 30-year ONI baseline which is updated every 5-years. Note also that baselines are centered, so recent years don't have their final ONI values yet. 2023 wont be finalized until the 2006-2035 baseline is available. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/watching-el-niño-and-la-niña-noaa-adapts-global-warming

The sun has switched from a slight cooling to a slight warming factor in cycle 25.

A less sarcastic take.

Satellite daily global SST anomaly through April 28. The current SST spike is roughly as large as previous anomaly spikes for an entire nino. Looks unprecedented in terms of size and short duration.

I've been measuring temperatures locally for for 40 years, trust me its warming. Its warming faster at your house than the "actual data" you have posted in this thread. All the technically sound analyses of local data show strong warming. You are the only guy who thinks it was warmer in the 1940s than current in this area. If you think you have a better analysis than the experts publish your data in a technical forum - challenge the experts.

Don't try to speak for me, If analyzed properly. the Chester County COOP data fully supports consensus climate science. Living here for 40 years I can attest to the county's strong warming trend. Like I have said before. You are going to be the last person to detect local warming using observations.