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chubbs

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  1. Telling that Spencer avoided the 1998 to 2004 period of interest when comparing to other series. Below are trends from Dec94 to Jan2009, (broadening both ends to improve stats) Slope deg/decade UAH: -.014 RSS: .175 HAD5: .167 GISS .184 NOAA .146 BEST .154 UAH is a clear outlier, for the period of interest, but much closer to the other series before and after.
  2. Yes, correlation between the two datasets plotted is weak. In addition to problems with UAH, need to look at clouds more carefully - types, low vs high, location, etc. Also don't trust the site that prepared the chart - specializes in flawed datasets to promote climate denial. NOAA-14 was dropped because it warms "too much" in UAH's judgement, a qualitative call. Surface records are much less uncertain than satellites because multiple stations can be inter-compared within a region to correct equipment changes or malfunctions, heat island, etc.
  3. There are 2 decades of cloud satellite obs. This study is in-line with others estimating cloud feedback using satellite data. Scientists have been gradually paring down the uncertainty in climate sensitivity with better obs and models, as they do that there is no indication that warming has been overstated. Instead the tightening is mainly from raising the lower-bound.
  4. Another chart tweeted by author - climate models are doing a good job with clouds. The chance of climate science "missing something" is vanishly small.
  5. Saw this on twitter, the increase in severity of heat waves hasn't been evenly distributed. Much of the US has been spared the worst.
  6. Recent summer warming has favored the W US. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/july-2020-climate-outlook-has-no-good-news-us-southwest
  7. The main sink for CO2 is the oceans and the oceans take up heat and CO2 at roughly the same rate. If emissions stopped, CO2 concentrations would decrease fast enough to stabilize temperature. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/340/6131/438.abstract
  8. This is too pessimistic. Warming will stop when emissions stop. It is feasible to go all renewable plus other non-CO2 emitting in a couple of decades.
  9. You don't have a good understanding of climate science or any science for that matter. Science is evidence-based using observations and models are together. Climate models are not like economic models. They are built on well physical laws: conservation of energy, + momentum, radiation physics, etc. When observations agree with models based on known physical laws then confidence increases. That is where we are today. We have decades of observations that match model predictions and theory closely, including observations of past climate which cover a very wide range of climactic conditions, much warmer and colder than today. There is a literally a mountain of evidence supporting the climate science consensus and zero evidence supporting a natural cause for the current warming. This thread is poorly titled. There is no science discussed here and no evidence presented that the science is "unsettled". Instead it is mainly about the political talking points that skeptics respond to. In the past few pages experts can't be trusted because of one perceived foible or another. Instead you trust Rupert Murdoch and others in the climate denial space, who have publishing climate misinformation and discrediting experts for decades.
  10. Sea level trends from satellite. This doesn't include local land rise/fall or compaction of sediments, which is increasing the rise in Louisiana and some areas of east coast (NJ). https://sealevel.colorado.edu/trend-map
  11. Not really. Local ground-level changes can be larger than sea-level rise. Also sea level rise is not uniform. Areas close to Greenland and Antarctica have less rise due to gravitational effects from shrinking ice sheets. Individual tide gauge records don't provide useful information on SLR, need to look at a large group of gauges with the proper weighting of different regions. The satellite record plotted above covers the globe and is robust.
  12. Its been accelerating since the start of the industrial revolution. Almost no sea level rise from Roman times to 1800. 1" in the 1800s, 6" in the 1900s. 1.5" per decade now. https://www.harvardmagazine.com/2016/08/what-roman-ruins-reveal
  13. Huh? Did I say anything about not encouraging debate. I strongly support honest debate. You can deny science all you want, but don't whine and cry when you are called a science denier. If the WSJ's position was supported by science, they would site science in defense, instead they play the victim card.
  14. Climate deniers playing the victim card are the only people I've seen raise the holocaust in a climate discussion. WSJ the most recent example.
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