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chubbs

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  1. Think you mean 0.90 for Oct. Here is a chart showing where 2017 could end up based on Jan to Oct.
  2. RSS column water vapor spiked this fall led by the tropics. Further evidence that the current nina period is having a relatively small impact. TPW should retreat now as nina heads for a mid-winter peak.
  3. Yes enso is playing a role. Perhaps a continuing recovery from the hiatus also. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2017/11/el-nino-and-the-record-years-1998-and-2016/
  4. 2017 7 0.5961 2017 8 0.7150 2017 9 0.8434 2017 10 0.8020
  5. Unlike UAH, RSS was down slightly in October, but with a similar fall spike. Surface warming isn't as pronounced so would expect a trend back to pre-spike values in both uah+rss.
  6. UAH continued the recent upward trend to 0.63 in October. The current spike is unusual, other UAH spikes tend to be single months or winter/spring in el nino.
  7. I understand there was a recent post on WUWT that tried to make that point. Below is the reason why that is not correct. https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2017/10/averaging-and-error-propagation-random.html#comment-form
  8. RSS was 0.84 in September, 4'th warmest of any month. GISS dropped in September while UAH+RSS spiked upward.
  9. Graph shows gfs model temperatures for entire year. Past data is zero hour model starting point i.e a proxy for observed. The forecast for the next week is also shown. CFSR refers to the baseline "normal" temps used to calculate the temperature anomaly. Main use is to check recent and near-term trends.
  10. gfs must think its 2015
  11. UAH was a record 0.54 in September. The previous record was 0.45 in 2015.
  12. Starting off like many recent cool seasons
  13. RSS TLT 0.71 in August, topping previous August record of 0.63 in 2010 and 2016.
  14. This year has been cool like 2013 so the volume and extent data are not inconsistent.