chubbs

RSS TLT 0.71 in August, topping previous August record of 0.63 in 2010 and 2016.

This year has been cool like 2013 so the volume and extent data are not inconsistent.

This year's low volume/high NSIDC area status is unusual. Looks like the mild winter is having some impact but is a weaker factor than a slow start to the Arctic Ocean melt season.

Yes, in August most melting is from water below the ice. Of course colder air cools the water also. Last season saw strong late season melting due to storminess even though temperatures were cool.

Interesting chart from Wipneus on the ASIF today showing the area of various ice thicknesses on July 22. 2017 lags in the thinnest categories but leads in the thicker. Wipneus notes that 0.26 on July 22 always melts and 0.71 sometimes melts in severe late summers. So a range of outcomes is still possible this year depending on weather.

This is a good summary. Every year is a roll of the dice but gradually the dice are being loaded. Recently winters have been the most problematic. Perhaps we will see some temporary sea ice rebound with reversion to more normal conditions this winter.

We are running below the trendline so can't give this prediction a gold star yet..

Just have to avoid unusually strong storms like 2012 or prolonged storminess like 2016.

There was a publication last this year. I don't have a reference - it was a relatively obscure journal the Asia Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences. The article was mainly material from Spencer's initial blog post on UAH6. edit: found it https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs13143-017-0010-y

Mears has a published a FAQ on the RSS update including a comparison with radiosonde data showing less bias than UAH6. http://www.remss.com/blog/faq-about-v40-tlt-update

July often reverses the June 500 mb tendency in the arctic with 2009+2015 being recent high height years in July and 2010+2012 relatively low.

That is my guess - there is less volume to lose late in the melt year. On a percentage basis, the volume anomaly is largest at the September low.

Hopefully not the sun.

Interesting charts. Highlights the difficulty in predicting sea ice, particularly a record low, with any lead time. Note though that the trend in 925 mb temps is upward so the dice are slowly being loaded.