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chubbs

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  1. Not sure where you are getting your paleo (or other) info from. CO2 is a control knob and water magnifies the impact of CO2. Without CO2 there wouldn't be much water vapor in the atmosphere. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/330/6002/356
  2. Can't get too excited about any one study or model. However, after 40+ years of rapid warming since aerosols stabilized, it should be clear that nature isn't going to bail us out.
  3. chubbs

    Attribution Report for the July 2019 Heat in Europe

    Yes and the summer sun was 5+% stronger in the arctic in the HCO explaining the summer warmth. We are blowing past the HCO in the arctic with unfavorable orbital conditions for arctic warmth.
  4. chubbs

    Attribution Report for the July 2019 Heat in Europe

    Interesting how misinformation on climate science and renewables goes hand-in-hand.
  5. chubbs

    Attribution Report for the July 2019 Heat in Europe

    Funny, I have the opposite reaction to ice cores. The temperature/CO2 correlation is almost perfect in ice cores and modern observations.
  6. chubbs

    Attribution Report for the July 2019 Heat in Europe

    Hasn't received any publicity, but the NHemi oceans are scorching, much more important to global July temp records than the brief European heat wave. Per below the warming has continued in early Aug. UHI?
  7. chubbs

    Attribution Report for the July 2019 Heat in Europe

    No -RSS implemented a new method in V4. The main difference between uah and RSS, is that uah discards some NOAA-14 data because it "warmed too much". RSS is in much better agreement with other data sets. Below is land temperatures where diurnal drift is most important. UAH lags in the late 1990s/early 2000s when the NOAA-14 data was removed.
  8. chubbs

    Attribution Report for the July 2019 Heat in Europe

    Warmest July for RSS - 0.71 vs 0.70 in 2010. 0.8C of warming in past 40 years.
  9. Thanks Don, does appear relevant this year.
  10. chubbs

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Think this will go down to the wire. The Pac-side pack has been deteriorating in a favorable pattern.
  11. With the favorable conditions we have had this year, am going to stick with my original prediction of 2019/20. Any other year is a crap shoot, or Russian roulette with the number of bullets slowly increasing. The 2012 volume anomaly minimum, around -8000000 km3, will be average in less than a decade.
  12. chubbs

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Looking more and more like a 2 horse race
  13. chubbs

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    From Amy Butler's twitter. Unusual coupling of the stratosphere and troposphere this summer. Models at times too eager to end pattern.
  14. chubbs

    Beyond climate tipping points

    The switch to fv3 has messed up Maine's anomaly calc, June is going to be warm, top 3 most likely.
  15. chubbs

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    4 days later forecasts are variable but most keep it going for quite some time - probably helping by preventing a classic dipole
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