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About chubbs

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    New London, PA

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  1. chubbs

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    4 days later forecasts are variable but most keep it going for quite some time - probably helping by preventing a classic dipole
  2. A crapshoot. I see you also picked 19/20. Have to check back in a couple of weeks to see if we still have a shot at getting lucky (or unlucky).
  3. Bump Crunch time for my wag. A month ago would have pushed the record min out in time, but will let it ride given the current pattern.
  4. chubbs

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Recent summer warming in the Yukon exceeds the Holocene climatic maximum despite reduced summer insolation vs early Holocene. https://t.co/gCPWogUB5N
  5. chubbs

    2018 Temperatures

    Top 100m of ocean. Tends to go up in steps, with this decades step unusually large.
  6. chubbs

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    IPO phase could bring September ice-free date forward. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL081393
  7. chubbs

    Super-heating oceans in the Southern Hemisphere

    Very unlikely that the warming in the southern oceans over the past couple of weeks has anything to do with upwelling. Expansive Hadley cells a more likely explanation. Note that fresh water from Antarctica ice sheet is just starting to ramp-up and will take centuries to play out.
  8. chubbs

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Antarctic sea ice has large natural variability. Here are a couple of speculations: 1) I don't recall the details but one paper flagged the the large nino in 2015/16. For sea ice the timing does line-up, 2) The antarctic ozone hole is slowly recovering this would tend to weaken winds and produce warming, both of which will reduce sea ice extent 3) Antarctica warming lags because of the deep ocean nearby which is slow to warm. as time proceeds though Antarctica will catch-up. Per the chart below, the south pole has also warmed in the past decade in a way that doesn't match enso, so it is likely more than just enso.
  9. A nice explainer on ice sheet dynamics and WAntarctic instability but not for the climate faint of heart. https://www.sciencenewsforstudents.org/article/big-melt-earths-ice-sheets-are-under-attack
  10. chubbs

    2018 Temperatures

  11. chubbs

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Rapidly receding Arctic Canada glaciers revealing landscapes continuously ice-covered for more than 40,000 years Here we show that pre-Holocene radiocarbon dates on plants collected at the margins of 30 ice caps in Arctic Canada suggest those locations were continuously ice covered for > 40 kyr, but are now ice-free. We use in situ 14C inventories in rocks from nine locations to explore the possibility of brief exposure during the warm early Holocene. Modeling the evolution of in situ 14C confirms that Holocene exposure is unlikely at all but one of the sites. Viewed in the context of temperature records from Greenland ice cores, our results suggest that summer warmth of the past century exceeds now any century in ~115,000 years. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08307-w
  12. Exactly. Who is funding the Heritage , Heartland Foundations and other DC think tanks that come up with denier meme's? Wealthy petrodollars. So this particular meme is pure hypocrisy. The reality is that climate scientists could be making much more money on Wall Street or in myriad other careers. While Koch is stuck in the oil business.
  13. chubbs

    2018 Temperatures

    With government shutdown, only Berkeley Earth is available for 2018. Clear where we are headed. More details on 2018 at link below. http://berkeleyearth.org/2018-temperatures/
  14. Your "side" comments are just an old denier talking point. The goal is to make climate denial seem like an honest difference of opinion or mere political difference. Nothing could be further from the truth. The science is very clear. Its not new science either, the basics have been known for 150 years, and the accumulation of evidence is overwhelming. The denier meme's that you are so fond of were ginned up 30 years ago in conservative think tanks. Why do we keep hearing the same memes. Because they are effective in misinforming. Just like the ancient quotes that you copied and pasted from some denier site. Go back and look at board discussions from 10-15 years ago - the same meme's - only now the world is much warmer. Guessing we will be still be hearing the same 10 years from now - while temperatures continue to climb.