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About chubbs

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  1. 2017 Global Temperatures

    By comparing to regional mean trends. The same, well-established procedures, are used to account for station moves (airports/city stations have been moved further out), incomplete record length, and new equipment.
  2. 2017 Global Temperatures

    JMA - 2017 #3
  3. 2017 Global Temperatures

    2017 was 2nd warmest on several re-analysis datasets: emwcf (below), NCEP, JRA-55.
  4. 2017 Global Temperatures

    There was a change in gfs mid-year which warmed surface temps somewhat so can't compare current to early part of year.
  5. 2017 Global Temperatures

    After correcting for ENSO, the first 10 months of 2017 are the warmest ever, see bottom graph.
  6. 2017 Global Temperatures

    Per ocean temperatures in the top 100m, looks the nino/end of hiatus resulted in an abrupt shift to a warmer conditions.
  7. 2017 Global Temperatures

    Think you mean 0.90 for Oct. Here is a chart showing where 2017 could end up based on Jan to Oct.
  8. 2017 Global Temperatures

    RSS column water vapor spiked this fall led by the tropics. Further evidence that the current nina period is having a relatively small impact. TPW should retreat now as nina heads for a mid-winter peak.
  9. 2017 Global Temperatures

    Yes enso is playing a role. Perhaps a continuing recovery from the hiatus also. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2017/11/el-nino-and-the-record-years-1998-and-2016/
  10. 2017 Global Temperatures

    2017 7 0.5961 2017 8 0.7150 2017 9 0.8434 2017 10 0.8020
  11. 2017 Global Temperatures

    Unlike UAH, RSS was down slightly in October, but with a similar fall spike. Surface warming isn't as pronounced so would expect a trend back to pre-spike values in both uah+rss.
  12. 2017 Global Temperatures

    UAH continued the recent upward trend to 0.63 in October. The current spike is unusual, other UAH spikes tend to be single months or winter/spring in el nino.
  13. 2017 Global Temperatures

    I understand there was a recent post on WUWT that tried to make that point. Below is the reason why that is not correct. https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2017/10/averaging-and-error-propagation-random.html#comment-form
  14. 2017 Global Temperatures

    RSS was 0.84 in September, 4'th warmest of any month. GISS dropped in September while UAH+RSS spiked upward.
  15. 2017 Global Temperatures

    Graph shows gfs model temperatures for entire year. Past data is zero hour model starting point i.e a proxy for observed. The forecast for the next week is also shown. CFSR refers to the baseline "normal" temps used to calculate the temperature anomaly. Main use is to check recent and near-term trends.