chubbs

I hope you are kidding about "limits of measurement". The ocean heat trend is very robust. Temperature measurement in water is more meaningful due to high heat capacity and there is much less year-to-year variability. Another record in 2020. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-021-0447-x

Per my #: 1.022 vs 1.018, a difference that could disappear in future updates. Did you collect your bet?

Geological Society of London Scientific Statement: what the geological record tells us about our present and future climate A good read. Yes the climate has varied in the past. https://jgs.lyellcollection.org/content/178/1/jgs2020-239

Seeing a big Dec plunge this year as well in reanalysis - 2010 a good analog

Here is the horserace chart. 2020 grabbed the lead. You're bet looks good.

Could have gotten better than even money a couple of days ago on the site you linked above - I would have taken those odds

Yes, wouldn't be surprised if 2020 grabs the lead after Nov. Interestingly, 2010, another nina, also set a Nov GISS record before plunging in Dec, so may come down to the wire.

Sun is ramping off the Dec 2019 min

November has been very warm despite the nina. Record looks likely now.

The pessimistic permafrost modeling study posted above was conducted by professors at a business school using a simple model they developed. Would heavily discount. Not that permafrost isn't a problem, but need better models to evaluate. https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/climate-change-crisis-tipping-point-world-warm-b1721822.html

GISS comparison through October below. Going to be a close race right to the wire despite ENSO being less favorable for warmth this year.

yes it was warm: March 47 +6.2 T the last 1.2" of snow fell in April. Enjoyed the outlook.

After last year would take 1893-94 . Below are the local philly stats - downtown then vs airport today - norms 1880-1910 Dec 36.4 +0.2 3.5" Jan 36.6 +3.9 4.1" Feb 31.9 -1.3 11.5" seasonal snow - 20.3" vs 24.3" norm

How much for Philly? This plot suggests that any relationship between October sea ice and subsequent Philly snow is complicated. In any case, can say that very low Oct sea ice, below 4.5 million sq km, doesn't help. Not good with this years October sea ice area a record low of 4.08 million sq km.