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About chubbs

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  1. Wall Street Journal article repeats multiple incorrect and misleading claims made in Steven Koonin’s new book ’Unsettled’ Analysis of "‘Unsettled’ Review: The ‘Consensus’ On Climate" Published in The Wall Street Journal, by Mark P. Mills on 25 April 2021 Twelve scientists analyzed the article and estimate its overall scientific credibility to be very low. A majority of reviewers tagged the article as: Inaccurate, Misleading.
  2. Here is the American Meteorological Society statement on climate. I don't see any debate or disagreement. The debate is among non-scientists: conservative think tanks, politicians, science denial press (WSJ an example), blogs, etc.
  3. Same old story from Koonin. He doesn't get any traction from scientists, but will probably sell some books.
  4. Yes with the right comparison, CMIP5 is close to observations and CMIP6 runs a little warm. Thought Spencers' SST values looked too warm. Wouldn't discount other errors. A while ago I estimated the following trends using KNMI explorer for the period 1975 to 2020: RCP6 globe - 0.218 (Tos, not SST blended so warmer than obs) RCP6 ocean only - 0.144 HADSST4 - 0.152 Finally how did you make the chart.
  5. Yes tough sell for expensive solutions, fortunately its getting to the point where a push to net-zero isn't going to cost much, may even reduce costs in the long run. From ZekeH's twitter.
  6. Wouldn't modify sherwood 2020's conclusions based on my simple estimates. In addition to the caveats given above, the radiation paper notes that some forcing components are ignored - ozone and aerosol cloud. Agree with your last post though, ECS<2 seems very unlikely.
  7. Yes, CMIP5 mean was 1.8. So probably too high. The period is short and there is other uncertainty.
  8. Just noodling some #. Doubled CO2 is 3.7 W/m2 so forcing increase is roughly 0.9% of doubled CO2 per year. GISS temperature increase over same period is .0229C per year giving a rough TCR of 2.6. Plenty of uncertainty in slopes due to short time-period, but warming and forcing both increasing at a good clip. Giss trend -
  9. Yes, wind is a scapegoat for those want to shirk responsibility for rolling the dice and getting snake eyes. Wind turbines and other electrical infrastructure are working fine in Wisconsin.
  10. Yes 2021 will be cooler than 2020, but so far there is no indication that the drop will be unusual for a La Nina. I posted this chart a few days ago in the 2020 thread. ENSO conditions currently are very similar to early 2011, but global average temperatures are much warmer. Note that Jan 2021 is above the long-term trend line, while Jan 2011 was below. If we can't get below the trend line, we are going to need a new, steeper one.
  11. Chart from Hanson's January update. January was only 6'th warmest due to nina. This years nina is very similar in strength to 2010/11. As Hanson points out, if warming is steady, 12-month running average should drop below the trend line, similar to 2011. If not, there has been an acceleration probably due to forcing picking up.
  12. I hope you are kidding about "limits of measurement". The ocean heat trend is very robust. Temperature measurement in water is more meaningful due to high heat capacity and there is much less year-to-year variability. Another record in 2020.