chubbs

8/30 and 8/31 at Freya glacier in eastern Greenland roughly 3000'. The interesting weather continues next week with a big melt event to kick off the accumulation season.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-the-uks-insane-40c-heat-was-forecast-weeks-in-advance/

Per this study, AMOC collapse promotes La Nina. https://phys.org/news/2022-06-huge-atlantic-ocean-current-downif.html https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01380-y

Why are Atlantic hurricane seasons becoming more active? Per this study, its roughly a 50/50 split between more favorable weather patterns/ENSO etc. and a warming ocean. https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/471/2022/wcd-3-471-2022.html

My bias is consensus science. What's yours?

Good thread on what is needed for 1.5C. Top 15 solutions below. Nothing earthshaking. Mainly renewables, diet, and better stewardship of natural world. Dr. Jonathan Foley on Twitter: "At Project Drawdown, we evaluated many different climate solutions -- for their potential size and cost. Here are the top solutions to get to 1.5˚C https://t.co/4DFKeoq68E" / Twitter

India's power generation mix. They are "onboard" with renewables, but growing too fast to reduce fossil fuel use. Note that use factor for fossil is much higher than renewables.

Prior to the past few months, haven't noticed any de-coupling of global temperature from enso.

Matches up with re-analysis data indicating a roughly 9-month warming period now, despite the nina. Wondering if this is recovery from the Australian fire aerosol. In any case, the next nino is going to find an atmosphere that can hold more heat than 2016.

Made an attempt to check how the recent past has tracked the paper findings. Below is 2011-2021 against a 1981-2010 normal, i.e the last ten years vs the previous 30. The AMOC signal can be seen but the cooling center is SE of Greenland and S of Iceland and heights have tended to rise recently near Greenland. Also visible is broad global warming, and a nina signal in the Pacific. The nina signal is not surprising considering enso decade trends since 1980. Guess one message is be careful analyzing regional circulation trends.

There is going to be pain. That's the nature of fossil fuels, particularly oil. A commodity based on a resource that depletes. New field/wells are constantly needed to maintain current production. Now we are chasing oil sands, deep offshore, fracking etc. These are all expensive and need ongoing large investment just to maintain current production. Fracking is particularly problematic from a boom/bust standpoint, because individual wells deplete rapidly. Our current pain started in the pandemic when oil prices crashed, causing investment to slow. US oil production dropped giving OPEC more pricing power. At that point an oil shortage and price increase was inevitable. Putin is taking advantage of the commodity cycle just like Middle East oil barons did 50 years ago. Nothing new. Too late to impact this crisis, but we could minimize the next. The resource base for renewables is larger than fossil fuels and more evenly distributed. Solar and wind are mass produced in automated factories. They can ramp quickly, doubling every 2-4 years recently. Renewables and EV have finally reached the scale where one or two more doublings will have a big impact in reducing fossil fuel demand. Yes, a transition will take time, money and innovation. Target the bad actors from a geopolitical, economic and climate standpoint first. A transition is going to happen anyway, as renewable, EV +storage economics are outpacing fossil/combustion. Just a matter of whether its fast enough and targeted properly to minimize future geopolitical, economic, and/or climate pain.

US gulf coast from Miss to Key West. https://tamino.wordpress.com/2022/02/25/sea-level-rise-30-year-forecasts-from-noaa/

As the satellite sea level record lengthens it becomes easier to see acceleration. Nina can slow and even briefly reverse sea level rise - 2010/11 a good example. No slowdown visible in this nina, though