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About chubbs

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  1. Watch the video, Australia is a big country. Fires in unpopulated dryland is not the same as fire in forested SE with more towns, people.
  2. You don't have to go back very far to for record high global temperatures, December for example.
  3. Here are 0 to 700m ocean temperatures. Your estimate is pretty good. The top 100m have warmed twice as fast.
  4. From Lijeng Cheng's twitter - 2019 ended on a high note.
  5. Haven't seen the commercial. Natural gas is better than coal, but need to get to zero emissions eventually to halt warming. Most of the improvement in long-term outlook is due to the big cost drops this decade for solar, wind and batteries. For me highest priority is introducing some kind of carbon pricing, which would improve economics of nuclear and all other improvement options.
  6. The article below provides a good summary of how recent energy trends are impacting IPCC emission scenarios. While I am even more pessimistic about the science of climate than I was a decade ago, I have become much more optimistic about non-fossil energy technology and natural gas vs coal. Limited policy and luck has improved the "worst-case" considerably vs CMIP5 IPCC scenarios. Unfortunately though, we haven't made any progress on the "best" case due to inaction/denial. Recent experience shows that improved climate policy and support for renewable energy technology could have enormous long-term pay-back.
  7. Very strong warming the past 5-6 years. The warm departure from the trend-line has stayed more prominent than the cool departure during the hiatus.
  8. Off the charts surface melting so far this summer in Antarctica aided by the September SSW with temperatures above normal since late September.
  9. Strong ocean warming since the end of the hiatus. The 2016 super nino spike was completely erased by the following la nina. It's the non-super nino periods that have been killing us. Most recently we have warmed in the past year even though 3.4 temps have cooled.
  10. GISS vs CMIP5 forcing (source for forcing # below, volcanoes*0.25 reflecting observed response to short duration activity). Observed TCR is roughly 1.8 inline with model estimates.
  11. GISS - the current spike has fully corrected the hiatus, but the 11-year mean hasn't turned up much --- yet.
  12. Here is solar in previous IEA outlooks - 2035 in the base case is undoubtedly conservative.
  13. Saw this on twitter from the International Energy Agency's recently issued 2019 World Energy Outlook. Base case on left, sustainable development, broadly consistent with Paris targets, on right. Solar forecast to be #1 in global power generation by 2035 in base case. That date is moved forward to 2028 for "sustainable development". This isn't rocket science.
  14. From ZHausfather's twitter. Every possible trend to present, CMIP5 vs obs. Warming has picked-up in the past decade or so and is now faster than CMIP5 models.