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chubbs

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Everything posted by chubbs

  1. Not good when back-to-back moderate ninas barely get you to the trendline, after 40+ years of warming.
  2. You are covering a lot of bases. Not aware of any new feedbacks. Snow/ice feedback is well understood. You may be confusing impacts, tipping points and feedbacks. Can you provide references? As far as the future. Warming is directly related to CO2 emissions. The more we emit the more we warm. Irreversible for tens of thousands of year, unless we remove CO2 from the atmosphere, which won't be cheap or easy. So yes we will be dealing with AGW for a long time, but the amount of warming is up to us. We are far from helpless, shortsighted yes, helpless no.
  3. The feedbacks impacting temperature aren't changing significantly. Higher global temperature or ocean heat content generally means higher forcing from greenhouse gases.
  4. The nina is holding surface temps down, but the overall warming trend is strong.
  5. Long but good video, providing background on: Moreover, they underline the need for incorporating these feedback processes, which are currently not accounted for in most ice sheet models, to improve sea level rise projections. Tl:DR - IPCC is probably a best case scenario
  6. Doesn't look great to me. Very unscientific analysis - the trend since 2004 is much more uncertain than the trend since 1979; and doesn't look negligble either. Note that volume anomaly is higher in winter.
  7. I haven't seen any studies on local storm tracks. But have seen enough Monmouth County jackpots to know that warming alone doesn't explain our local patterns.
  8. More the difference between State College and phl/nyc/bos, I95 vs interior.
  9. Interesting. Below are snow trends since 1940 for some eastern cities that I have been tracking. My tabulation agrees with the chart above. I95 cities from Philly to Boston are doing well. Other northeast is mixed. Cities south of philly are down. My take - warming is reducing the opportunity for snow, but increasing moisture and/or storm track shifts are offsetting in some areas.
  10. Believe he is taking a temperature reconstruction, which comes from tree rings and a number of other sources, and putting it in tree ring format. Below is the latest - going back 24,000 years. Note chart below is global, while chart above is northern Hemi.
  11. This is a good argument to speed up the transition away from fossil fuels. The fossil fuels of the past 100 years are not the same as the ones that are left. The giant oil/gas fields we have been using are increasingly depleted. We have an "energy" crisis because fossil fuels deplete making the supply unreliable without ongoing investment. The oil industry cut investment as prices plunged in early 2020 and now we are short on supply, even though global oil demand still lags the pre-covid peak. Its the classic boom/bust oil and gas cycle. Fracking makes it worse, because capital costs are large, economics marginal, and fracked wells deplete rapidly. A tired, worn-out horse to harness your future to.
  12. Got a kick out of this one. One solution is to let the ocean continue to rise, allowing the Ocean City beach to recede far enough so the wind farms can't be seen.
  13. Where's Blizz? Torchy recently considering the enso state. We should get some nina-related cooling this winter. Guessing we will be even warmer next fall, if the nina relaxes. We'll see.
  14. This new paper is about the tropics, but the physics are relevant to this summer heat wave in the NW. Dry areas are going to experience more amplification of extreme heat under climate change: "According to the theory, warming is amplified for hot land days because those days are dry, which is termed the ‘drier get hotter’ mechanism." https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00828-8
  15. Haven't heard that it will. Appears that eruptions haven't been energetic enough to inject large amounts of material into the stratosphere.
  16. Some evidence for an increase in the rate of global warming in the past 20 years. Chart below accounts for ENSO and volcanoes, the main sources of natural variability. The trend differences are only statistically significant in some datasets, so need to run more clock before getting too excited. https://tamino.wordpress.com/2021/10/18/an-honest-appraisal-of-the-global-temperature-trend-part-2/
  17. This study measured the earthshine reflecting off the moon. The falling trend agrees with satellite observations and climate model projections that clouds are dimming as the earth warms. https://phys.org/news/2021-09-earth-dimming-due-climate.html Caption for Figure below Earthshine annual mean albedo 1998–2017 expressed as watts per square meter (W/m2). The CERES annual albedo 2001–2019, also expressed in W/m2, are shown in blue. A best fit line to the CERES data (2001–2019) is shown with a blue dashed line. Average error bars for CERES measurements are of the order of 0.2 W/m2. Credit: Goode et al. (2021),
  18. From Sydney Morning Herald, Ruport Murdoch is switching away from climate denial in Australia. No word on his US media properties yet, i.e. Wall Street Journal and Fox News. The owner of some of the nation’s most-read newspapers, including the Herald Sun, The Daily Telegraph, The Australian and 24-hour news channel Sky News Australia will from mid-October begin a company-wide campaign promoting the benefits of a carbon-neutral economy as world leaders prepare for a critical climate summit in Glasgow later this year. https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/rupert-murdoch-newspapers-24-hour-news-channel-to-champion-net-zero-emissions-20210905-p58oyx.html
  19. Yes the rains this week were impressive, humidity/moisture could be a better local indicator of summer climate change than temperature
  20. Analysis of SST of gulf waters that IDA passed over. Below are the odds of being above the given SST by decade. https://tamino.wordpress.com/2021/09/02/hurricane-ida-climate-change-makes-a-monster-storm/#more-11625
  21. Thanks, good example of the "sociology" of climate change. If your world view is that it isn't warming or that warming is insignificant, then misinformation is readily accepted.
  22. LOL - Tamino is a mathematician with one of the best climate blogs, almost entirely data analysis. Sad when sound data analysis is fake news. As described in the article Heller's US temperature charts are bogus.
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