chubbs

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We're currently the biggest drag on climate progress, along with other big oil producers: Russia and the Middle East. The global south is moving quickly to clean tech for energy using gear they are buying from China. We are losing a race that we don't even know is going on.

Switzerland lost 3% of its glacier mass this year. The 4th highest yearly loss. https://scnat.ch/en/uuid/i/9d883a30-136c-55b8-8cde-a6b4c1851dee-And_Swiss_glaciers_continue_to_melt

Here's a new one, recently emerging Antarctic methane seeps. Could be an important climate feedback. A priority for research funding I would think; but, we will have to rely on other nations to carry the ball. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-63404-3.pdf

Boston 2015/16-now, 34.7, matches BWI 1951-80, 34.6.

2015-16 to present matches Richmond's average winter temp 1951-1980 - 38.4.

CERES has been updated through July. Recent months have been increasing erratically a sign that the enso-cycle bottom has been passed. The three-year average net radiation remains at a high level, well above the initial heat imbalance when CERES started collecting data in 2000. The recent net radiation uptick is also consistent with the large rise in ocean-heat content in 2nd quarter which was posted above. Both energy balance metrics indicate that the earth continues to warm rapidly.

Found this 2017 article in the Pages2k magazine that provides a nice summary of regional temperature change since 1500. There is regional variation in the detectable onset of man-made warming. As you suggest warming was already detectable by the mid-1800s over the ocean and Northern Hemisphere land masses. Makes sense as greenhouse gas concentrations started to rise slowly by 1800. https://pastglobalchanges.org/sites/default/files/download/docs/magazine/2017-1/PAGESmagazine_2017(1)_71-74_2k.pdf

A quick check indicates that CO2science is not a balanced website. Its advocating against US regulation of CO2 emissions and focusing on the benefits of CO2 on plant growth without acknowledging offsetting adverse impacts. I'd put it in the climate denial camp. I ourworldindata piece I linked above is more trustworthy. Recent gains in yields are mainly from improved seed genetics and increased fertilizer and other inputs. You have to strip that out to get climate change impacts. I googled up this recent Nature paper which finds significant future negative impacts on agriculture, even after farmer adaptation, albeit from a high emissions scenario. I haven't gone through the literature review section but that would be a good place to start on recent scientific work in this area. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09085-w.pdf

Do you have a reference for this? Per the articles below, we have had larger crops due to technology improvement not climate change. The impact of climate change depends on the crop and region. No large net impacts so far. On a global average, doesn't look like a disaster in the future either; but, some regions and crops may have significant negative impacts. Also need to consider extreme events which will pack a bigger punch in a warmer world. A bad year can be destabilizing regionally. https://ourworldindata.org/crop-yields-climate-impact https://ourworldindata.org/will-climate-change-affect-crop-yields-future

Battery costs are declining along well established cost curves. This ongoing cost decline is hammering the competitiveness of fossil fuels. Cheap batteries mean solar and wind are no longer intermittent and transportation is readily electrified. This article shows how battery-electric trucks will quickly become more cost-effective than diesel. This is being driven by China which has recognized the long-term strategic opportunity. They are electrifying their economy to reduce oil imports and sell increasing amounts of high value gear to the rest of the world. Meanwhile our leadership is in denial. Doubling down on outmoded energy technology. Going to be tough to be competitive if we are uncompetitive in energy. https://www.nature.com/articles/s44333-025-00029-5.pdf

China's CO2 emissions are peaking not accelerating. That said China coal use is massive and coal interests are putting up a fight. Its unclear how China's policy towards coal will evolve. https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-record-solar-growth-keeps-chinas-co2-falling-in-first-half-of-2025/ https://energyandcleanair.org/publication/chinas-coal-is-losing-ground-but-not-letting-go/

Trump's speech showed how unprepared the US is becoming for the future. https://electrotechrevolution.substack.com/p/rewiring-the-energy-debate?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web

Here are some snow stats for I95 cities. Last 10 years have been below normal at all cities. Philly to Boston are above average over last 30 years. This year 95/96 will be dropped from 30-year average, so 30-year averages are likely to drop.

Wildfire smoke is having an increasing US health impact. Likely also cooling our summers. https://bsky.app/profile/shannonosaka.bsky.social/post/3lz4nvt3eqc2f https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09611-w#Sec4

Some charts from the recent climate experts review of the recent DOE CWG report. The first chart shows how misleading taking an average of GHCN stations is because: 1) the stations are not spread uniformly across US and the 2) station network has changed with time both equipment and station locations. The second chart shows that a proper analysis shows heat wave days are increasing in the US and are now well above 1930s levels. The final chart shows that mid-latitude extreme temperatures are increasing much faster outside of the US. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1knIpC4vGrZXDsrF13RC2CujCjhbILgaa/view?usp=sharing

Clear we have passed an energy tipping point, with fossil fuels becoming increasingly uncompetitive. China's large manufacturing scale key in driving down costs. Countries without entrenched fossil fuel interests are leading the way and China will sell them the gear. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/china-energy-transition-review-2025/

PIOMASS sea ice volume is currently number 2 behind 2012. Volume losses were unusually low this year in June, similar to 2017 in that regard.

Ocean heat content in the 0-2000m layer has jumped up this year, recovering from a nino-related dip. A sign that warming at a fast clip continues.

Solar is accelerating rapidly in Africa. This is mainly due to economics, lower cost of solar panels and batteries.

It is interesting to compare the current standing and recent trends in SST vs global temperatures. Comparing to 2024, SST have risen through the year particularly in summer months, while global temperatures have cooled relative to 2024. Difficult to compare 2025 to 2023 because of the strong rise in temperature in 2023, but just looking at August, both SST and global temperatures are somewhat cooler in 2025 vs 2023. Comparing 2025 to pre-2023 years, SST is currently warmer than any year by a good margin, while global temperatures are not well clear of the pre-2023 years. Taken as a whole, 2025 SST is like 2023, unusually warm for the enso condition; but, unlike 2023, global temperatures are not unusual for the enso state. Mid-latitude marine heat wave probably playing a role . Will be interesting to track as summer turns to fall. Guessing SST will cool will warm relative to other years and global temperatures will warm; but, we will see.

After several decades of rapid warming, arctic warming ground to a halt in the past 10-15 years. while warming in the NHemi mid-latitudes sped up. Consistent with recent trends in arctic sea ice and our recent winters.

Yes, UHI and global warming are both happening. The presence of one doesn't diminish the other. This thread/board is littered with whataboutism. What about this, what about that. Many things can be true at the same time. That doesn't change the big picture. Scientists from the 1970s would not be surprised by the warmer world we have today or that Phoenix has a heat island.