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Everything posted by chubbs

  1. Ooops, first posting had 20-year running average instead 30-year as labeled. I have subbed in the 30-year values. Doesn't change the major trends.
  2. 30-year running average snowfall for some Northeast sites, focusing on I95. Plotted on a log scale, to highlight percentage changes between sites. Table below shows changes in current 30-year mean vs mean in 1970, 1990 and 2000. The sites with the lowest snow are in decline. Further north the picture is mixed, coastal I95 has increased at the expense of the interior. I'd expect declining snow to spread slowly and unevenly north with time. Note that we only have snowfall information for our cooler past.
  3. My two cents - That depends on us. Feasible to get off fossil fuels in the next three decades, which would end the warming. More foot dragging--> less winter
  4. Meh. In the long-term CO2 concentrations are going to turn around and head back to 280 ppm no matter what our cumulative economic production is.
  5. This reflects properties of ice and water. In winter ice is thick, not much heat escapes through the ice, and arctic ocean acts like land with large temperature swings (same for early Spring). Water with ice in it has a temperature near the freezing point of water. One ice cube is enough to maintain near 32F water in a glass of ice water. Adding heat in summer results in less Arctic sea ice; but, as long as some ice remains the ocean water temperature stays near the freezing point of water, so arctic ocean temperature swings are much smaller in summer than in winter. In fall there is more open water to freeze with warming and freezing releases heat; and, ocean water has stored more solar energy due to darker surface in summer with less ice and/or wetter ice. So makes sense that fall warms faster than spring.
  6. The warming is strongest in eastern enso regions 1+2, and 3. Per models will take a couple of months for 3.4 to reach 0.5C. There has also been warming of the tropical and sub-tropical Pacific outside the enso regions. Unusual to break SST records this early in a nino.
  7. From Mt Holly, Chesco had a nice "heat island" ytday, fan aspirated or not.
  8. 71.8F here. I broke the Chester County record.
  9. https://125yearsbelgica.com/2023/02/17/a-worrying-absence-of-sea-ice/
  10. You are demonstrating your lack of knowledge. The ocean changes slower than land because heat can mix to great depths in the ocean resulting in vast heat capacity. Almost all the energy in the climate system is stored in the ocean. If the ocean is warming, heat energy is coming into the climate system faster than it is going out. I'll let you try to figure out why. Good luck avoiding warming in Chester county under the current circumstances. Per chart below, Chester county is warming like the rest of the world, but a little noisier and faster, as expected based on its mid-latitude land location. Its going to take roughly 1000 years for the entire ocean to equilibrate once the CO2 concentration stops rising. That's why your “cooling cycle” prediction in this decade is so laughable.
  11. Nice set of posts. Shows how predictable the global mean temperature is and how strong the signal to noise ratio is for greenhouse gas warming.
  12. I can't find any supporting information for Paul's contention that Chester County temperatures are the same now as the 1930s+1940s. There are a number of problems in his analysis: 1) he has different stations in different decades, 2) The decade averages can be misleading vs looking at all the 10-year averages, 3) The last data point is 2010-19 and warming continues, 4) Most importantly the raw Coop data is noisy and biased, more on that below. The individual coop stations don't agree amongst themselves. Below are 3 stations that cover the entire period (Coatesville is used in Chescowx series). The 30-40s are not unambiguously as warm as today: Coatesville is warmer today. Note also that trends in individual stations are not the same when all 10-year averages are plotted vs just the decade averages. The lack of agreement among these stations is due to the numerous station changes and moves (the breakpoints discussed by bdgwx). That's why bias adjustment is needed. Otherwise the most erratic stations, like West Chester and Phoenxville skew the result. Unlike the coop stations the NWS regional climate sites are all in good agreement with each other. See plot upthread for other regional sites that agree with Allentown and philly airport. All of these stations show strong warming since the 1940s (no data available for 1930s). The raw data from the regional sites disagrees with the coop raw data, but agrees well Coop bias adjusted data. With bias adjustment, the temperature trends in Chester County are not different than the region as a whole (compare SE Pa and Coatesville) or even the global temperature chart posted by bdgwx. The 30s and 40s are warmer than surrounding decades, but much cooler than today. No you can't avoid warming by living in Chester County. With proper analysis there is no evidence that Chester County is as warm now as the 30s or 40s. No evidence that I am aware of anyway.
  13. https://www.theonion.com/climate-change-deniers-present-graphic-description-of-w-1819578104
  14. ExxonMobil model predictions from 40 to 45 years ago, internal memos that were not published - spot on. They also modeled the past 150,000 years accurately. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abk0063
  15. Hanson Model prediction made in 1981. Global average temperatures. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL085378
  16. The information below, and more, has been exchanged with Chescowx (Paul) multiple times without having any impact on his analysis. Don't expect it to have an impact this time either, but is posted here to provide background to others. There are multiple problems with Paul's chart. First the Philadelphia obs moved from center city to the airport in 1940, causing a 1-2F cooling. The chart below compares the Philadelphia airport to other Mt holly main climate sites (Wilmington, Atlantic City, Allentown airports). The main climate sites have similar trends since 1940, nothing unusual about the Philadelphia airport. The Philadelphia airport has a small amount of additional warming vs other regional sites (<1F) that is accounted for in NOAA bias adjustments. ln comparison with the Mt Holly climate sites the Chester County coop sites show more cooling between the 1940s and 1970s as the Coop sites were modernized. One obvious difference is the use of max/min mercury thermometers at the coop sites, which introduces time of day bias. Finally Paul fails to mention that the Chescowx series, uses 3 separate coop sites, end-to-end-to-end. His own house, picked for max snow is last. Between modernization of the coop sites and station moves, there is 2-3F of bias in the Chescowx series, vs NOAA bias adjusted temperature series for Chester County (bottom).
  17. Per chart below, in the past 50 years Philadelphia has become Richmond and Coatesville (far NW burbs) has become Philadelphia. The local warming is spot on with climate science predictions from the 1970s. Locally we are having a Raleigh Durham winter, circa 1970, with both Philadelphia and Wilmington averaging close to 40F since Dec 1. A 40F winter is much more likely locally now than it was 50 years ago. Science predictions are clear, the warming will continue until we get emissions under control. Extending the regression line, by 2039 Philadelphia will have Raleigh's climate and Coatesville will be half way to Richmond. That's why it will be very easy to see that we aren't having a cooling trend way before 2039. Your spiel in this thread is "the climate has always changed". An effective talking point for deniers, but doesn't say anything about why climate has changed. If you don't know the cause of the current warming you can't predict the future. Just because you don't know why climate changes doesn't mean that no one knows. Science solved this problem a long time ago. Same thing with climate predictions. Just because you aren't aware of any successful predictions, doesn't mean they don't exist. Obviously you don't want to recognize sound climate prediction. We gave you several examples and you blew them off. As my mom used to say you can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink.
  18. Where is the courage of your convictions? We'll have North Carolina's climate by end of the next decade. And you will still be in denial. With steady warming it didn't take long to see that JB was wrong and it won't take long to evaluate your prediction either.
  19. How about we track your cooling cycle prediction in this thread? Lets see if you do any better than JB.
  20. We've been over this a million times. The coop stations cooled when modern equipment was introduced. Fortunately, as shown in your chart, the coop station changes occurred at different times and can be easily identified by comparing stations. When properly analyzed, the "cooling" shrinks, leaving a long-term warming trend.
  21. Over 90% of the heat in the climate system is stored in the ocean. Currently, the climate system is out of equilibrium and warming rapidly on a geologic scale (ocean warming below). Good luck getting a "cooling cycle" when more energy is coming in from the sun than being radiated out. https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00376-023-2385-2.pdf
  22. This is a heck of a way to run a "cooling" cycle.
  23. You are asking the wrong question. Going back 50 years, scientists have made very accurate predictions of future warming (see link below). Scientists have also gotten the consequences of warming right, but have underestimated the speed in many cases. For instance, sea level rise is proceeding at the upper end of projections. Ice sheets, permafrost, forests are all changing faster than anticipated. There is lag in the climate system. due oceans and ice sheets which have large thermal mass. While we see the impact of warming today: heat waves, flooding, forest fires, drought, sea level rise etc; much bigger change is projected for the future; unless we get our act together. How about your own predictions? Below is a recent one that didn't take long to go belly up. Not surprising, deniers/skeptics have a horrible track record. The next cooling cycle is always just around the corner. Has been for decades. https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/288430943.pdf
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