TheClimateChanger

That storm next weekend on the 12Z GFS looks intriguing.

Made it down to 31F at Akron/Canton yesterday (11/15), which is the latest freeze on record. The prior record was November 13, set in 1916, although there's some missing data from that year on days when it may have dropped to 32F or below - including no data on October 12, when lows on the surrounding days were 35 and 37 and there was a comment indicating a heavy frost; no data on October 26, when lows on the surrounding days were 36 and 33; and no data on November 12, when lows on the surrounding days were 34 and 28. Observations in 1916 were taken at the University of Akron. The second latest on record (with no missing data) is November 12, 2016. Still no freeze at CLE; however, that's not quite as rare there. One of eight years with no freeze as of 11/16, although 6 of those were 1932 or earlier when observations were taken on rooftops downtown. Not exactly ideal for radiational cooling. The only other year without a freeze by this point at Cleveland Hopkins International Airport was 2016.

First official freeze at Detroit yesterday. 2nd latest on record. Latest is November 15, 1946. Looks like Akron/Canton, Ohio and Wheeling, West Virginia are both experiencing their latest freezes on record. Previous records were November 12, 2016 & November 4, 1900, respectively. Wheeling will probably drop to 32 or below by midnight, and Akron/Canton by tomorrow.

Latest first freeze on record at Akron/Canton (see below). At Cleveland, it's one of only 12 years where there has not yet been a freeze. Although only three of those were at Hopkins International Airport (1946, 2016, 2022). Unless there's a midnight low in the cards, it looks like this will stretch at least another day - 2 of the 12 had their first freeze on the 14th, so it should be top ten at CLE. No. of days at or below 32 (through 11-13):

It's a shame that the remnants of Nicole couldn't time up better with the cold air pressing in. Could have gotten a classic La Nina snow storm a la November 1950. I wonder if we'll see any big storms this winter with the La Nina conditions in the Pacific. It was 80 degrees on November 1, 1950 - big warm spell that year end of October into the beginning of November.

Looks like it made it down to freezing this morning. I was going to say not to count the chickens before they hatch. Very easy to get a “surprise” freeze this time of the year with the long nights if it’s a bit clearer or calmer than expected. We had heavy frost here each of the last two mornings.

Ten years ago today was the last time NWS Pittsburgh issued a blizzard warning. Same for Charleston, WV; Blacksburg, VA; and Morristown, TN offices. Oddly enough, it looks like less than 2 months later, a swath of blizzard warnings occurred from Arkansas to northern Ohio, which was the last time any of those areas have seen the issuance of blizzard warnings.

Well, 1972, 1982 and 1998 were all strong to extreme Ninos, so there was a lot of heat to dissipate. I don't think this triple dip La Nina was preceded by a strong El Nino which is curious.

Maybe oak trees, but this is false. Look at the Halloween 1993 snowstorm in Cincinnati (and that's far south), and there are very few leaves on the trees. Clearly not bare, but most of the leaves had fallen. If there had been trees still in leaf with that widespread 6"+ storm, there would have been power outages all over the place. Which did not happen because there weren't many leaves left. We certainly didn't have leaves in northern Ohio, except on some oaks, after Halloween like in recent years.

Not to be overly pedantic but official records did not move to PIT until September 15, 1952, at which time the airport was called The Greater Pittsburgh Airport. I realize some sources incorrectly show data back to 1949 as belonging to PIT, but this is incorrect. The airport didn't even open until 1952. You can see the actual records in the NCEI records vault (see September 1952 below). So 1949-50, 1950-51 and 1951-52, which all appear in the table above, were actually observed at AGC not PIT.

Not good news with all of the drought. Looks like these multi-year Ninas may be becoming more frequent due to climate change. https://www.washington.edu/news/2022/10/03/study-suggests-la-nina-winters-could-keep-on-coming/

It looks 2011-2012 might be a decent analog as well, which was a multi-year ENSO?

Do you guys think 1988-1989 is a good analog for the upcoming winter? I noticed Joe Bastardi indicated that this was the coldest start to October since 1988, although I know he can sometimes take liberties with data. Regardless, I thought that was interesting since I also recently read that the Mississippi River at Memphis recently went below the prior record low set in 1988. So both years had widespread drought across the CONUS, a chilly October, and a similar ENSO state at this point - although 1988-1989 went on to become a strong La Nina whereas I believe most forecasts for this winter are weak to moderate La Nina.

Only 17.77% of the country not in some drought designation level, which is the lowest amount since they've been producing the drought monitors (which go all the way back to 1/4/2000).