TheClimateChanger

I think you mean 1783-1784, which is when Laki was erupting. I was thinking of this as well recently, with the snow in southern Louisiana. The area around Broussard, Louisiana was originally called Cote Gelee (Frozen Hill) due to the snow covered sandhills and icy bayous found by the early Acadian settlers in 1784. Ice floes were reported into the Gulf of America, formerly known as the Gulf of Mexico, from the Mississippi River. The impact of Laki on these cold temperatures is not unquestioned, however. Recent research suggests natural variation played an important role. ENSO and NAO reconstructions show a pattern similar to that which occurred in 2009-2010, so I don't think we can necessarily discount the possibility that this was natural variation superimposed on a much colder base state than the present. The anomalous winter of 1783–1784: Was the Laki eruption or an analog of the 2009–2010 winter to blame? - D'Arrigo - 2011 - Geophysical Research Letters - Wiley Online Library

@donsutherland1 Here's another example of a denier seizing on the recent cold snap to promote their anti-warming agenda. First of all, the article mentions the Great Lakes, not the Upper Midwest. While there's a considerable overlap, much of the Great Lakes region is not in the Upper Midwest, and vice versa. Second, nowhere in the article do the predict the "Upper Midwest would become very warm by the year 2030, and millions of people would move there for the climate." There's a thought-provoking possible future headline, but it simply mentions the 21st century - which could be 2050, or 2080, or 2090. The only projection has a lot of caveats - "may cause a 4 to 9 F temperature increase in the region as early as 2030." Not really a hard and fast projection, given the "may" and "as early as" language, suggesting the rise may occur over a longer timespan that that. But the crazy thing is the lower end of that projection does not look far off. Here is the temperature trend at Toledo Airport, in Ohio, from 1989 to 2024. Now, the airport, a relatively small, regional one, is located in a mostly rural section of Lucas County, and therefore should have minimal impact from urban heating. A linear regression shows a warming of 2.9F from 1989 to 2024. A continuance of this trend over the next several years would likely bring total warming to around 3.5F by 2030. And this is fairly representative of much of the Great Lakes region. But a few comments are warranted: (1) Most recent years have been above the trendline. Should this continue, the slope of the regression line will increase. If we simply compare the first 5 years of data, we find a mean temperature of 50.1F, versus the most recent 5 years, a mean temperature of 53.7F, corresponding to a warming of 3.6F over those two periods. (2) This does not account for changes in instrument and siting. The HO-83 thermometer, which was in use from the mid 1980s to the mid 1990s, is known to have produced spuriously high readings. When the NWS switched to ASOS, with the updated sensors, a cooling of as much as 1F or more was noted. This suggests that the temperatures at the beginning of this dataset may be too high, which would have the effect of decreasing the slope of the trendline [and implied warming] for non-climatic reasons. (3) The graph starts at what was understood at the time to be a very warm period - no cherrypicking at all. The late 1980s and early 1990s were known as a very warm period with mild winters and hot summer temperatures. The Pinatubo eruption, however, did provide some temporary cooling in the 1992-1994 time period, perhaps ameliorating this factor. Regardless, the point is starting just 10 years earlier would probably produce a substantially higher warming trend. Overall, the forecast was not bad. It would appear that 4F warming from late 1980s base would likely be achieved by 2040. The higher rates of warming were probably based on projections of greenhouse gas emissions that did not come to fruition.

Looks like the coldest of any ASOS/AWOS site was Zelienople (KPJC). A very efficient site for radiational cooling. Unlike most larger airports and airfields, this one is located in a small valley. Coldest temperature was -16.6F, or rounded to -17F, which was observed for several hours. The AWOS does not report minimum temperature, so it may have been even lower in between 15 minute observations. Link: National Weather Service Washington County Airport (KAFJ) reached -16F. Another spot for good radiational cooling. Link: National Weather Service

I suspect the snowcover actually amplifies the diurnal range by having a larger cooling impact on low temperatures than on high temperatures, under ideal radiational cooling conditions. Also, some of those days likely saw non-diurnal temperature spreads due to reinforcing shots of arctic air, plus moderation into the overnight ahead of the reinforcing shots of arctic air.

Would have been a good opportunity for some entrepreneurial northern snowplow operators, as well. I would reckon there aren't too many of those down there.

There's plenty out there. Just go out there and make some Snow Buckeyes! Florida's snow will be melted in 2 days. Ohio has fared much better than most places.

Good post. If your fears do come to fruition, I think part of the blame belongs to the government. The Drought Monitor continues to show marked improvement statewide over the past 10 weeks, which would suggest wetter than average conditions has helped to alleviate, or reduce, the existing drought. But, in fact, most places have seen below normal precipitation over the past 10 weeks - in some cases, much below.

Heavy snow now.

Snowing here at a decent clip right now.

Yes, I see that. Judging from the hole around the LWX radar, I suspect it's all (or mostly all) aloft. You can even some of the heavier returns southwest of the radar site, especially in the early part of this loop, suggesting the heavier virga likely extends over the radar site but the beam is too low in those areas to detect it. With that said, the hole does look to be shrinking, which would suggest some of the snowflakes are making it further down into the atmosphere. But this is only like 10, maybe 15, dbz returns.

Doubtful, given the extremely low dewpoints and minimal intensity of what is falling to begin with [looks like little more than flurries even at the height of the radar beam].

That's what I figured. The proximity to the hot river waters probably elevate minimum temperatures locally compared to other locations in the warmer parts of the year.

Interesting. What happened to the urban heat island that people always complain about at MDT?

Very impressive snowfall rates, with rapid accumulation. Watch out for that coating.