TheClimateChanger

We are living in the climate statistics equivalent of baseball's steroid era. Like 40 home runs used to be a pretty big deal, then you suddenly enter an era where someone like Brady Anderson goes from averaging 20-25 homers to knocking 50 out of the park. And three different players are routinely hitting 60-70 a season.

I would probably compare only to years before 2000 and toss all the recent years. So many months now don't even crack the top 10 warmest, that would have been like 4th or 5th warmest on record just 20 years ago. That means the same months that would have been highlighted on the NWS website as being incredibly warm just a couple decades ago now don't even get a second glance and, in fact, people think those months are relatively mild because they compare it to the fact that, for instance, 5 of the most recent 12 years have been warmer. And it's those recent 12 years that people remember and base their expectations on. This happens all the time now. So many months look like no big deals, when they would have been considered very warm just a couple decades ago.

So, to me, this data would suggest that a place like Cleveland or Toledo has a climate like that of mid- to late 20th century northern and central Kentucky, over the past 10 years. Suburban Pittsburgh looks on par with suburban Washington, D.C. or Charleston, WV, while the city itself is more on par with southwest Virginia or far northeast Tennesee [lower elevation locales, not looking at mountain climates]. In light of the ongoing trend (even an apparent acceleration), I would anticipate Cleveland/Toledo will look like southern Kentucky by 2040, and suburban Pittsburgh will look like northeast Tennessee, while the city itself has a climate more on par with 20th century middle North Carolina.

Pittsburgh (May 2015 - April 2024) KPIT: KAGC: What's interesting is the city station used to run 2.6F warmer than KPIT and about 2.0F warmer than AGC owing to the much lower elevation and heat island effect, which, in either case, would imply the downtown city temperature over this interval is now around 56.0F. Sterling, VA (suburban Washington metro) [1962-1985] Roanoke, VA (1956-1985) Tri-Cities, TN (1956-1985)

Cleveland (May 2015 - April 2024) KCLE: KBKL [Burke Lakefront Airport]: Covington, KY (1956-1985) Lexington, KY (1956-1985)

This might be an unusual post, but does it seem like there is a perception problem when it comes to climate? Like people just accept the change, and then suddenly use that as the benchmark for what's a normal climate for a region. Like I feel that people think of Cleveland as this cold and snowy place, but the actual data would show over the last 10 years that the mean monthly and annual temperatures are on par with late 20th century northern/central Kentucky. Or Pittsburgh, where the mean annual and monthly temperature closely matches that of suburban Washington, D.C. metro or southern West Virginia, but inside the city, probably more on par with the lower elevations of eastern Tennessee or northwest Virginia.

10th warmest mean temperature over the first 23 days. Prior to 2006, only 4 years were warmer (1955, 1977, 1878, and 1985), and the last one by only a tenth of a degree.

I know all about pollution. You're figure is exaggerated. You implied there is an 86x increase in cancer risk over a large area ["Cancer Alley" covers 85 miles of riverfront]. The highest risk you've actually shown is this one which finds a 50x risk - not even in one town, but in a sparsely populated area within a mile of the DuPont plant. And 86x is not close to 50x, it's nearly double. None of the EPA studies find anywhere near that high of an incidence. Air pollution from chemical plants is horrible enough, there's no reason to exaggerate. I don't understand why you're mad at me. All I did was a request a citation for the figure you quote.

Let's not pretend there was no air pollution before the Industrial Revolution. All the wood burning for heat, foundries, tanneries, etc. would have certainly lead to extensive smog in the cities. Not to mention, there was no garbage collection or sewage, so human waste was just strewn throughout the cities. Also, I'm going to need a source on this 86x cancer risk. That doesn't sound credible to me, and I can't find any source that claims anywhere near that figure.

Interesting. So on March 31, it's wet and cool. On April 16, still cool but drier. Meanwhile, it's been a very warm April. This forum is hilarious. 5th warmest [of 64 years] at IAD. 13th warmest [of 153 years] at DCA. While only beaten out by 12 years since records began in 1871, the DCA ranking is misleading as heck as well. Prior to 2006, there are only four warmer Aprils to date (1941, 1945, 1980, and 1981). And one of those four (1980) is a negligible 0.1F warmer. This would have been considered an exceptionally warm April in the 1990s or early 2000s when I started observing the weather. That's only 20-ish years ago. In one generation, what would have been considered a near record warm start to April is now considered "cool." How did we let this become normalized?

April Fools?

Partially true. But the main reason historically for the fruit growing belt is actually the opposite. The proximity to the Great Lakes keeps it colder in the early/mid spring depressing vegetation development until after the threat of frost and freeze was largely over. And then of course if there were late season frosts and freeze, providing enough moderation to minimize the threat.

If frost in April kills off the crop, it might be time to give up and move on to something else. Maybe it's just no longer a suitable climate for growing strawberries.

Brutal. Fell all the way from 2nd to 5th place on the MTD warmest list, with yesterday's cooldown. I fear we're going to fall pretty dramatically over the next few days. Look at all these recent years in the top 8 though! And people will still make up nonsense about how spring is always cool.

Have to tack on 3-5 degrees on sunny to partly sunny days in early spring to account for lack of vegetation IMO.

Looks like the nearby personal weather stations had a similar jump at that time. Possible heat burst from collapsing showers? This one Imperial went up above 65F and since cratered below 59F.

Interesting. I bet the negative anomaly in North America is due to the increase in wildfire smoke, especially last year, when we had a couple of HECS (historical east coast smoke storms).

METAR KYNG 172343Z 24014G24KT 7SM -TSRA FEW036 SCT048CB BKN090 17/14 A2979 RMK FUNNEL CLOUD B03 FUNNEL CLOUD E42 AO2 PK WND 24039/2318 WSHFT 2308 OCNL LTGCGICCCCA OHD-S TS OHD-S MOV NE P0012 T01670144

This time of the year, I feel like you've got to add a good 3-5 degrees to whatever they are forecasting to account for the lack of vegetation if there's any chance of appreciable sunshine. I'm sure once we get to summer, a lot of those 90-degree forecasts will stall at 88-89 though.

If we compare this to some cities in the Upper South, you can see the last two years, this period has been about on par for what would have been deemed normal for the lower elevations of northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia, and well within the limits of normal variability in a place like Knoxville, Tennessee. This is surprising to me because this is heavily weighted toward winter, which tends to be the time of the year when the south is much warmer than western Pennsylvania. In the 30-year period from 1956-1985, only three years were warmer at Charleston, West Virginia [and only 5 were warmer than the same period in 2023 at PIT]. Similar story at Roanoke, Virginia. Only 10 of 30 years had a warmer YTD than Pittsburgh in the period from 1956-1985. And last year too would have placed solidly around the median value. In the Tri-Cities area of Tennessee, only 10 of 30 years had a warmer YTD than this year at Pittsburgh. And last year would have been around the median value.

Sorry for the off-topic post. But I was trying to figure out whether Pennsylvania is the best state, and I noticed that U.S. News and World Report has us at only 40th best [in other words, 11th worst]. Do you guys think this is a fair ranking? Why is it so low? Pennsylvania is the 5th most populous state, has plenty of natural beauty and a mild climate. Link: U.S. News and World Report Ranking for Pennsylvania