TheClimateChanger

We've had that for 21, going on 22, years - it's called the United States Climate Reference Network and it shows more, not less, warming than the official numbers over the period of overlap.

Suspect he's jumping the gun a bit. This is what the GFS shows for the morning of the 16th:

Source: drroyspencer.com

Spring is coming!

I think most people assume the normals are simply smoothed averages, but they actually use statistical techniques like pairwise homogenization that are supposed to correct for biases, but unfortunately can introduce biases if bad data is being incorporated at the time the normals are being calculated.

Sorry a little old, I just wanted to point out that this is only related to the computation of the "normals" from the two sites. Toledo actually averaged 0.3°F cooler than Fort Wayne for the 1991-2020 timeframe. The normals in Toledo add about 1.5°F or so to this actual mean. Not sure if NOAA/NWS was piloting some sort of new calculation of normals that would incorporate a warming climate or what the case may be. My alternative guess would be Toledo was running a little hot beginning around July 2019 and continuing through the end of 2020 - looks like a sensor error, as it suddenly started running about 1.5F warmer than Fort Wayne. That's no longer the case, but whatever algorithm they use to create the normals may have interpreted that as a real step change up and added into the calculated normals. Which is annoying now that the temperature sensor is long since running normal again, as it has led to more negative anomalies than most surrounding sites [as in the examples you post above]. Obviously, not related to rural siting as Toledo Express is in a very rural location well outside the city.

Some more information on that one...

Update for late reporting cooperative observation sites. Falcon Dam recorded a high of 106F yesterday!

Strong signal for warmth as we roll into the second week of March, showing up well on both the EPS and GEFS.

Looks like it. What's interesting is even that only sums to 30.5 inches.

Wow! Impressive, matches the highest depth on record at Erie and just 5" shy of Buffalo's record. Just a complete framemogging though. Buffalo and Erie people be like "we got 40" of snow on the ground but 100" of fake effect snow fell over the last 2 1/2 days" and you guys are like "we got 40" of snow and 40" of snow fell in the last 12 hours and it's not even the dry, powdery fake stuff."

KPVD 231751Z 36028G40KT 1/4SM +SN BLSN FZFG VV007 M04/M05 A2928 RMK AO2 PK WND 36040/1751 SLP914 SNINCR 4/37 P0003 60017 4/037 T10391050 11006 21039 53003 RVRNO $

Looks like record snow depth is 30" in 1961. Of course, the official measurement won't be until 7 am tomorrow, but you've got to imagine it won't compact enough to drop below 30" - especially since it's still snowing very hard and likely to climb even higher.

Providence is up to 33" of snow OTG, but there was 5" before the storm. METAR KPVD 231651Z 36023G46KT 1/4SM +SN BLSN FZFG VV005 M04/M04 A2927 RMK AO2 PK WND 36046/1647 SLP912 SNINCR 3/33 DRSN P0002 T10391044 RVRNO $

In between 1st and 2nd now, METAR shows depth up to 27" as of noon.