TheClimateChanger

Two days after making us ground zero for the fantasy snow blitz, the GFS has decided to make us the screw zone of all screw zones. To be clear, 8" over 16 days isn't horrible, but it would be pretty awful if everybody else in the northeastern US got 2 feet +.

Both of these pale in comparison to South Bend, which saw 12.6" yesterday - the most in nearly 11 years (February 1, 2015; 14.7 inches). To put the amount of snow that fell in South Bend in perspective, Detroit has only observed two days with more snow than that since 1908 (18.4" on 12/1/1974 & 13.7" on 2/1/2015).

Incredible! The 5.1" calendar day snowfall at Detroit yesterday was the most in a single calendar day in nearly three years! The last time more snow fell in one day was March 10, 2023 (5.2"). Even more impressive, the 7.2" calendar day snowfall at Cleveland today was the most in almost four years! The last time more snow fell in one day at Cleveland was February 3, 2022 (8.0"). I'm sure many have been waiting for days like these for a LONG time!

Moscow is not warmer than Detroit. It is significantly colder, moreso in the summer but winters are colder too. The mean daily maximum in January is only 25.0F, which is less than the mean daily mean [average of max & min] for Detroit (25.8F), with the daily mean being 5F colder (20.8F). For the year, it's way colder. The normal annual mean is 3.6F colder than even Minneapolis. A normal year in Moscow (43.3F) is 0.7F colder than the coldest year ever recorded in Detroit (44.0F, in 1875). The difference is greatest in the late summer. The normal August in Moscow is 2.2F colder than the record coldest August in Detroit (65.9F, 1915) and the normal September is a full 4F coldest than the record coldest in Detroit (57.4F, in 1918).

Surprised nobody shared the 2025 global numbers. Most temperature datasets say 3rd warmest, slightly behind 2023, although NASA's GISTEMP narrowly edged out 2023 for 2nd warmest. 2024 is the unanimous #1 in all major datasets.

Not looking forward to this cold next week. Wish I could book a trip to Florida until it passes. Let's hope those 300-hour projections are way off the mark.

Very 1932-esque out there.

Pretty strict size limits. I rarely post pictures, but for images I usually upload to imgur and then link.

Can sort of make out that one heavier band the NWS was concerned about possibly making it into eastern Ohio and perhaps parts of Washington County. Nothing too heavy in our immediate area otherwise. Lake enhancement certainly helping out around Cleveland and points east of there.

Can confirm snowing here. Coating on grassy surfaces

Here's what it's going to look like if that GFS fantasy storm from last night comes true.

Yeah, they were getting clobbered with moderate to heavy snow earlier.

Snow line on the move in eastern Ohio, with rain & snow mixed at CAK. Automated sensors at PHD and ZZV were reporting “UP” suggesting sleet or a rain/snow mix.

Here’s what the NWS is forecasting. 1-2” mostly, but 2-5” along & north of I-80. They do highlight that area as having the potential to see as much as 6-8” in spots due to lake bands. They also suggest the possibility of a band in the west with up to 3-5 inches possible should that occur.

CPC has done a great job this winter. They were spot on with the end of December, despite critics. BAMWx questioned CPC's outlook for 1st half of January, but it's been spot on. It was BAM's outlook that blew up.

I didn't predict that it would be either. I was just pointing out that, with the current anomaly, the second half could be completely normal and it would still be close. With that said, it's pretty much guaranteed to finish in the Top 20, with Top 10 quite likely. As the colder end, in the means, shouldn't be nearly as extreme as the current positive anomaly.

Obviously, it's going to come down. But the month is almost half over. Going to take a big change even to drop out of the Top 10. The next 10 days look like a fair balance of cold (east) and warm (west) so I wouldn't expect a huge negative departure - as the two anomalies should cancel each other out mostly. Even a zero departure or slightly negative would bring the current down substantially. But if we're sitting at say +7.0F-7.5F at the midpoint (15th), then even an average second half would make this a top five warmest January. I could see it being perhaps colder than normal, but not anywhere near the magnitude of the first half warmth.

I’m going to need a front end loader for the drive if this is correct

Not bad

Checking in on 2026... safe to say, we are picking up right where 2025 left off.

Ended up narrowly edging out 1939 for 5th place in the official records. Quite the turnaround, considering the first 15 days of the month were around 1.7F BELOW the 1991-2020 mean, per PRISM's analysis.