TheClimateChanger

A few record highs across the subforum from yesterday. Record highs were also noted in Elkins, West Virginia (89F) and Memphis, Tennessee (101F). 000SXUS71 KPBZ 200535RERPHDRECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA0133 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2025...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT NEW PHILADELPHIA OH...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 91 DEGREES WAS SET AT NEW PHILADELPHIA OH YESTERDAY.THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 90 DEGREES SET IN 1966.$$RACKLEY 000SXUS73 KPAH 192142RERCGIRECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY0430 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT CAPE GIRARDEAU MO...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 98 DEGREES WAS TIED AT CAPE GIRARDEAU MO TODAY, AUGUST 19TH. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 98 DEGREES SET IN 1980.$$ 000SXUS73 KPAH 192141RERPAHRECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY0430 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT PADUCAH KY...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 98 DEGREES WAS TIED IN PADUCAH KY TODAY, AUGUST 19TH. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 98 DEGREES LAST SET IN 1995.$$

No, he posts basically the same forecast year after year. And the only thing brutal about most of the time is his accuracy rate.

Do we get some rain tonight? I have barely accumulated a quarter of an inch this month. Seeing a lot of early leaf drop and grass looks worse than even last year.

Wow! Looks like @MeteoMark broke summer's back once and for all:

Wow! This is incredible... I haven't seen anything like this in a LONG time:

Possibly all of the wildfire smoke limiting insolation?

If NCEI comes in at 0.77F above 1991-2020 mean, that would imply an August mean temperature of around 73.82F, or a 3-month summer average of 73.48F, which would tie 2016 & 2018 for 10th hottest on record nationally. A couple BIG caveats - the PRISM numbers are only through 8 PM EDT on Saturday... I suspect the monthly anomaly will be pushing 1F in the coming days. With that said, NCEI usually has LOWER anomalies than PRISM so it might be overstated. They seem to be closer when the heat is centered out west, and there's been a lot of heat in the southwest, so they might come in a little closer. The 10th place years have a pretty large lead over 12th place, so we're almost certainly in the top 12 (i.e., ahead of 2002) even allowing for some offset. Still a couple weeks of data left, so these can move around. It wouldn't take much to get us ahead of 2020 (7th place). Also, NCEI shows a cooler pattern to close out the month - albeit probably pretty close to the 1991-2020 mean, with warmer anomalies in the NW & SE. Prior to 2006, only 1934 & 1936 were hotter for the CONUS (using August's likely mean).

What is the website to generate these graphs?

SERCC's Climate Perspectives suggests Chicago would move into a tie for hottest season (through August 20) with the current forecast. Unfortunately, the last 7-10 days of the month looks cooler on the whole.

Barring some late day mischief, looks like an 89F high for today.

The airport ended up with 0.79", all coming in less than an hour. They had a nice cell, not much larger than the airport itself, pass right overhead. I only ended up with a few hundredths of an inch.

2005 looks like the hottest summer overall for New York State, per NCEI. June & July 2025 came in it third place at 69.3F. Right now, I have August around 68.5F for a gridded statewide mean, which would yield a meteorological summer mean of 69.0F for the state. 2005 was a scorcher! With as hot as this summer has been, it's hard to believe it was more than 1F warmer. That's huge for a statewide average.

Will be interesting to see where meteorological summer finishes up in the NOAA/NCEI statewide rankings. Ohio was in 4th place for June & July, with a mean of 74.5F. The hottest for that period since 1952, which was also 74.5F. Michigan was in a rather more pedestrian 13th place, with a mean of 68.6F (tied with 1931 & 1934). Through the first 13 days of August, I have the Ohio statewide mean at around 72.5F and Michigan at 70.9F. If those values hold, meteorological summer would come in at 73.8F for Ohio and 69.4F for Michigan. That would be the 4th hottest in both states (in Michigan tied with 1995; and in Ohio, tied with 1901, 1949, 2002 & 2010). For Ohio, that's 0.7F below the record hot summer of 1934. August's mean would need to come in ~2.1F higher than the current mean just to tie the record - the last 18 days would have to be absolutely blazing. So a record is very unlikely. For Michigan, however, the estimated current August temperature would yield a summertime mean just 0.2F below the existing record (1955 & 2005 tie), so August's mean would need to increase by ~0.6F to tie the record. Doable, but it would be a tall task as it has already been quite warm the first 13 days. And the last 18 days would need to be about 1F or so warmer to get the full month mean up another 0.6F. So unlikely to tie/break the existing record values, especially with cooler air returning to northern lower Michigan and the UP.

Looking at @frd's 6-10 day outlook, which shows most of the Mountaineer State 2 to 5F above recent climatological normals (with the exception of a small portion of the Eastern panhandle), I think the temperatures should be sufficiently high to push the West Virginia statewide mean high enough to at least tie, if not break, the record for hottest summer. That gets us to August 24 - the question then becomes whether that can hold for the final week. This is a record that was first set 125 years ago (albeit tied in 2010)! Stay tuned!

Update on summertime temperatures: Both Virginia and West Virginia saw their second hottest June-July period on record. Virginia had a gridded mean of 76.6F, second only to 2010's mean of 77.0F. At West Virginia, the two-month mean finished at 73.8F, second only to 1934. Incredibly since 1952, only one June-July came within 1F of that value (and only barely). The mean in 2010 was 72.9F, or 0.9F cooler than this year. August has started MUCH colder. My best estimate for the current mean is 71.5F in Virginia and 70.7F in West Virginia. Very rare for the two states to have such similar mean temperatures. West Virginia is usually decidedly colder on average. The Virginia value if it were to hold would match 1986 for 13th coldest August on record. West Virginia's implied mean is already in the warmer half of all Augusts. If these values were to hold, Virginia's summer mean would finish at 74.9F (13th hottest), while West Virginia's summer mean would finish at 72.8F (tied for 4th hottest). We can safely rule out a record hot summer for Virginia; however, a top 10 hottest summer is still very much possible. Currently, there is a 3-way tie for 10th place between 1952, 2002 & 2005. August would probably need to finish around 72.1F or higher for a top 10 summer. Now, the mean of 72.8F for West Virginia falls just 0.2F shy of the current record hot summer (1900 & 2010, both at 73.0F). To tie those years, we would need to see August finish around 71.3F. To break them, around 71.6F. To put that into perspective, 71.3F is the 1991-2020 mean, so West Virginia would only need to have a normal August (based on most recent climatology) to tie the record.

Looks awfully similar to their outlooks for 2022-2023 & 2023-2024. With that track record, I wouldn't put too much stock in it.

Saw NWS Portland reached 100F too, but that was the one in Oregon, not the office in Gray.

Made it up to 100F at Dixfield, Maine yesterday (reported as today's high due to morning observation time). Several other locations in the State reached 99F. While falling well shy of the monthly state record of 104F, that was the 1st 100F high temperature observed in the State of Maine in the month of August since August 15, 2001, when it reached 101F at Livermore Falls 1 E. I believe that was also a morning observation, as the prior day had a high of 100F at Fryeburg, Maine. In fact, since the record heat wave of 1975, only one other date besides yesterday & the date(s) in 2002... on August 9, 2001, Fryeburg reached 100F.

Really an incredible winter that ought to be remembered as fondly as 1976-1977, but they didn't measure snowfall in the same manner or with the same diligence and so it gets lost in the shuffle... but the snow depth records tell the real story. It's like comparing the dead ball era baseball records to the modern era. Like you'd think the 1910s weren't that snowy at Buffalo until you look and see there was a foot of snow on the ground for most of the winter! These days, they'll be like X location picked up 100" of lake effect in 4 days, and the peak snow depth will be like 20 inches. December-February snow depth at Buffalo - actually had 6 more days of 18"+ than 1976-1977! At Erie, an absolutely absurd 20 more days of 18"+ than any other winter, despite 4 missing days...

I doubt we'll see another winter of 1944-45 though! Here are some scenes from the Finger Lakes and Buffalo, respectively. And Toronto, Ontario, in the wake of the Great Snowstorm of 1944:

Saw it near Pittsburgh. I assume a rocket launch. It was drifting slowly north.

Burlington made it to 98F. Second latest date in the calendar year to reach 98F.

Very upside down month, based on the average highs for the first 11 days of August. Charlotte is nearly 7F colder than Burlington, Vermont, and 6F colder than Buffalo.