TheClimateChanger

Upper 80s on tap for today. Should be the hottest of 2025, so far. The warmest reading observed this year at KPIT is 86F, on June 4th and on April 19th.

Actually, made it up to 95F at Des Moines yesterday, with a record-tying 96F at Waterloo, Iowa!

By hotter, I'm assuming you mean by maximum temperatures. By mean temps, Miami is about 2-3F warmer than Jacksonville. I would chalk that up to JAX having a more continental-influenced climate. While both are on the coast, Miami is at the tip of peninsular Florida. The increased latitude is less significant in the summertime, with insolation probably being about the same at both locations.

Although I think Bristol, Tennesee is probably a better analog. 20 years ago, a regression from 1960 shows very little increase in 90+ days. The same regression run through 2024 now shows an increase of more than 3 weeks of such days. Definitely illustrates the folly of extrapolating from an existing trend without looking at what's going on behind the data. If one had examined the Bristol data closely, they would have noted an increase in the mean high temperature but found the increase in 90+ days somewhat offset by a decrease in internal variability [i.e., day-to-day variance]. So once normal highs climbed a bit more, the number of 90+ days exploded in the last 20 years. 1960-2004 1960-2024

It will probably be like Miami. Looking at a linear regression of 90F+ days, we can see an increase from 31 to 117 such days since 1960. In 1972, there were only 3 days at or above 90F for the entire year! So it went from about one month of 90s to about 1/3 of the calendar year in the 90s.

To clarify, I was referring to the mean high temperature for all of meteorological summer. As an example, a linear regression for Newark shows an increase in mean summer highs from 82.9F to 85.8F between 1960 & 2024. So the mean summer high should reach into the upper 80s over the next couple decades, at which time, July averages would probably be near 90F.

Second 90F reading of the short season to date at O'Hare Airport in Chicago.

Mean summertime high temperatures have risen by 2-3F since 1990. If that trend continues, average summer highs should reach the upper 80s around NYC by 2050, by which time, there should be a marked increase in the number of 90F days [similar to the observed increase in 85F days over the past several decades].

Yes, it is, but I never figured out how this research was supposed to suggest less warming. Assuming the findings are robust, given the number of rooftop stations was much greater decades ago, wouldn't that suggest that U.S. temperature changes are actually greater than reported, not less?

They just need to get rid of these automated weather stations, and go back to Cotton Region Shelters on rooftops, and I bet the number of 95 and 100F days would explode. Baltimore was one of the last places to get rid of its rooftop station, even after official observations moved to the airport, and it was having like a dozen days over 100F even when the official sites had zero! Keep in mind when they first moved to the airports, the instruments were generally sheltered on the roof - typically of the terminal building. It wasn't until later in the 1950s & 1960s, that they started moving to ground-based observations. How not to measure temperature, part 48. NOAA cites errors with Baltimore's Rooftop USHCN Station – Watts Up With That?

Morning thoughts:

Thoughts for this morning:

Wow! That must have been localized to the Twin Cities. June 2024 was hot and dry here (warmest in three decades!). And second warmest for the U.S. as a whole, behind only 2021.

LaGuardia is at 78.5F mean high for the first 8 days of June, or 35th highest of 86 years. It was 62.1F in 1945, which is below even the 62.8F mean low temperature for the month to date.

That's pretty typical for early June. For a couple of representative spots in the region... the mean high temperature for the first 8 days of June at Bridgeport, Connecticut has been 76.1F, which is 24th highest of 77 years. Newark is 80.8F, which is 38th highest of 95 years. A cold year would be like 1945, which was 62.8F at Newark, or 1997 (67.6F at Newark and 64.6F at Bridgeport, Conn.).

Tornado Warning PAC129-082015- /O.NEW.KPBZ.TO.W.0018.250608T1947Z-250608T2015Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 347 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southwestern Westmoreland County in southwestern Pennsylvania... * Until 415 PM EDT. * At 347 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near West Newton, or 8 miles southwest of Jeannette, moving east at 15 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Greensburg, Youngwood, New Stanton, Madison, Arona, Hunker and Herminie. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a well-built building away from windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Highway overpasses are not safe shelters. If you cannot safely drive away from the tornado, as a last resort, abandon your vehicle and lie down in a low lying area and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4022 7976 4028 7972 4030 7952 4018 7955 TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 262DEG 13KT 4024 7970 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN $$ TC Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 341 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 PAC125-082000- /O.CON.KPBZ.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-250608T2000Z/ Washington PA- 341 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 ...TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT FOR NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY... At 341 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 7 miles north of Wolfdale, or 7 miles east of Avella, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Cecil-Bishop, McDonald, Hickory, Midway and Atlasburg. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a well-built building away from windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4028 8039 4033 8040 4039 8026 4037 8023 4027 8020 TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 272DEG 17KT 4030 8037 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN $$ TC

Not accurate. The high was 102F at the Weather Bureau office at the Battery on that date. The monthly mean was a comfortable 74.9F. The 106F was observed at the Park, which, as suggested, would have been secondary to the Weather Bureau office.

Air quality is terrible again.

Weeks 3-4 look good for heat too. They also use a less wishy-washy scheme without the near normal buffer zone, so it has a true 60-70 percent chance of above normal in the northern half of Pennsylvania and 55-60 percent in the south.

Pittsburgh officially topped out at 86F today, which was 1F cooler than the scorching 87F reading observed last year on this date. In the case of last year, the early June heat was certainly a harbinger of what was to come in the temperature department! Last summer went into the books as tied for 8th warmest in the threaded record, and 2nd warmest (behind 1995) at the airport. The 24 days of 90+ readings were topped only twice since records moved to the airport site in September 1952 (38, in 1988; and 27, in 1995). Can 2025 match those lofty values? Probably not, but we shall see!

What an abrupt change! Record to near record warmth in spots today! Altoona reached 89F, easily surpassing the daily record of 86F from 1971 & 2024. New Philadelphia, Ohio topped out at 88F, just 1F shy of the record of 89F set way back in 1948!

Incredible swing, with record-breaking warmth in spots. Altoona (with records dating to 1948) topped out at a scorching 89F, easily surpassing the daily record of 86F set in 1971 & 2024. Several other sites were within 1-3F of records today.