TheClimateChanger

Something to keep an eye out. Certainly getting dry out there again like last summer. European ensemble mean says next 2 weeks could average 6-8F above normal locally.

9th warmest July on record for the Ohio Valley region, driven largely by West Virginia, which saw its hottest month on record. The State of Ohio recorded its 11th hottest July on record. Overnight low temperatures were especially impressive, as Ohio was one of 12 states to set a new record high for minimum temperatures in the month of July.

Something to ponder that may go against the general narrative. Not only are the PRISM estimates routinely coming in higher, but nClimDiv continues to demonstrate a cooling bias relative to USCRN and it's really becoming rather significant in recent months. The July anomaly was +.21F higher for USCRN, which makes a big difference in the rankings when each hundredth of a degree matters.

Pretty close! Officially checked in at 71.9F, matching 1901 & 1949 for 4th place overall.

Yes, you are right. Looks like the NWS must have a coop site nearby too. Looks a little warmer throughout the record than the observatory numbers, maybe lower in elevation?

Blue Hill Co-op saw its 4th hottest July on record with a mean temperature of 75.4F. Overall, it was the 9th hottest July for the state of Massachusetts with a gridded mean of 73.7F.

Also, nailed my projection for Connecticut. Was indeed the 3rd hottest on record with a statewide mean of 75.2F. Incredible stuff. Only 2013 & 2020 were hotter!

Nailed it! Very weird pattern with urban/ASOS sites tending to run below the statewide rankings in a sharp departure from recent years/decades where they've tended to run higher. They make up a sizable amount of the nClimDiv stations too, so the warmth was even more impressive at the co-op sites to bring the average up to 9th place.

Wow! It was indeed the hottest July on record for both Virginia and West Virginia! Maryland finished with its 2nd hottest July on record! Rather pedestrian (for this era) 19th place overall for the CONUS.

It was indeed the 4th hottest July on record for the Commonwealth! My estimate was pretty much spot-on.

Sorry, yes, 23, not 24.

Nice, is the source region Sonoran? All-time August record high of 118F today at PHX!

O'Hare tacked on its 24th 90+ day of the season! Projecting forward, the next three days are all forecast to exceed 90F. If that holds true, the count will reach 27 by Sunday. Very respectable tally, exceeded only once since 1988 (in the VERY hot summer of 2012), and tied for 11th overall. Looking specifically at O'Hare (records since 1959), that would be 5th highest. Definitely some good company in there with 2012, 1988 and 1983.

A couple of thoughts for today:

You'd think we'd be lighting up those PDSI maps with numbers like this: BDR down 5.55" for the summer to date. BUF has had only 0.77" since June 30! Plus, it's a top 5-10 hottest summer in most places.

While I think this is mostly the result of general climate warming, I think the sudden explosion of heat was aided by the significant reduction in sulfur emissions. Similar to some of the discussion surrounding the impact of recent shipping regulations of sulfur emissions, and its role in ocean warming. The funny thing is you ask certain people on here and they would insist the 1980s, 1990s and early 2000s were scorching hot, even though nationally recent summers easily blow them out of the water.

You can really see the impacts of the enhanced sulfur regulations, coupled with continued warming trends. In the last 15 years, 6 years were hotter than any summer in the preceding 25 years. Only one (2014) was cooler than the median summer for that 25-year timeframe. In fact, every year since 2010, except for 2014, was hotter than at least 17 of 25 summers in the 1985-2009 period. 2025 will almost certainly finish hotter than any summer in 1985-2009, so that would be 7 of 16 years where that was the case. 2 other years (2016 & 2018) were hotter than every summer in the 1985-2009 period, except for 2006. CONUS Summer rankings of each year since 2010, versus the 25-year period 1985-2009 2010: 4th hottest of 25 (behind 1988, 2002, and 2006) 2011: Hotter than any summer for 1985-2009 period 2012: Hotter than any summer for 1985-2009 period 2013: 9th hottest of 25 (behind 1988, 2002, 2006, 2007, 2003, 2001, 2005 and 1998) 2014: 8th coldest of 25 (behind 1992, 2004, 1993, 2009, 1985, 1997 and 1989) 2015: 5th hottest of 25 (behind 1988, 2002, 2006 and 2007) 2016: 2nd hottest of 25 (behind 2006) 2017: 6th hottest of 25 (behind 1988, 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2003) 2018: 2nd hottest of 25 (behind 2006) 2019: 9th hottest of 25 (behind 1988, 2002, 2006, 2007, 2003, 2001, 2005 and 1998) 2020: Hotter than any summer for 1985-2009 period 2021: Hotter than any summer for 1985-2009 period 2022: Hotter than any summer for 1985-2009 period 2023: 5th hottest of 25 (behind 1988, 2002, 2006 and 2007) 2024: Hotter than any summer for 1985-2009 period

BTW, NCEI data release is set for tomorrow morning at 11 am. July should come in among the top ten hottest, IMO. Looks like a number of eastern states had should finish around or in top five hottest. I didn't see any record-breaking values, but I didn't check every state. I think the June/July pairing will be somewhere in the top 8 or so... within striking distance of the record hot summers (JJA) of 1936 & 2021. August, however, has gotten off to a cool start nationally. Given where I suspect we are at for June & July, August would need to be record or near record warm for a new record high summer (JJA) for the CONUS (the current record holders of 2021 & 1936 both had hot Augusts). With the first week coming in decidedly below the 1991-2020 mean, it looks unlikely at this point. While heat is building now and the next couple of weeks look generally hot, it would take a pretty big inferno to completely wipe out the first week AND propel us to near record heat for the month as a whole. Still, August should come in above (perhaps well above) normal when all is said and done, with a top 5 hot summer probable.

True, but a very impressive heat wave is ongoing now. Phoenix has set two record highs already this month, including 116F yesterday, which was just 1F shy of the all-time monthly record. The low of 94F this morning was also one shy of the monthly record high minimum. Today is forecast to reach 117F which would match the August monthly record high.

Interesting. Wonder if there is any chance for a late Beaufort melt to gain some ground? Delayed, but not denied, as JB would say.

Evening notes:

It looks like your analysis suffers from some unfounded assumptions. I don't see any evidence that "the land masses in the NH ... likely had a negative greenhouse effect" during the LGM. Looks like this phenomenon is quite rare - limited to the Antarctic Plateau - and seasonal (no negative GHE in austral summer). Much of Antarctica does not have a Negative GHE, as per Figure 1 in the paper cited. And that appears to be the case for Greenland as well. They do surmise that perhaps such conditions occurred in past ice ages, but only specifically identify Greenland as a possibility. I think it's unlikely the continental ice sheets (e.g., Laurentide) would have been sufficiently devoid of water vapor and subject to the same intensity of inversion as the Antarctica Plateau. But even if they did, I don't see how this calls into question the role of CO2? CO2 would only be a negative feedback if a true negative GHE existed; even with a weaker positive GHE, it would still be a positive feedback. Moreover, it would be a positive feedback everywhere not covered by ice even assuming a negative effect over ice. As you, yourself, have previously pointed out, warming in one location does not exist in a vacuum. Ocean and atmospheric currents would eventually move warmer air across the globe. Over time, warming of the unglaciated regions would increase water vapor and erode the surface temperature inversions over the glaciated regions, shifting any negative GHE to a positive one. The cited paper suggests the same could occur over Antarctica:

See, I've got pretty good company here. Hansen is more than a little skeptical of what the IPCC says, suggesting a climate sensitivity much higher than supposed (4.5C v. 3C).