TheClimateChanger

Definitely showing up in the observations with visibility down to 2 1/2 miles.

I would say it is. I asked xAI's Grok to estimate what the climate of New York City would have looked like at the height of the last glacial maximum. I think most here would agree that this is MILES better than the current climate. Month Estimated Mean Temperature (°C) Estimated Mean Temperature (°F) January -15 to -10°C 5 to 14°F February -14 to -9°C 7 to 16°F March -10 to -5°C 14 to 23°F April -3 to 2°C 27 to 36°F May 3 to 8°C 37 to 46°F June 10 to 15°C 50 to 59°F July 12 to 17°C 54 to 63°F August 10 to 15°C 50 to 59°F September 5 to 10°C 41 to 50°F October 0 to 5°C 32 to 41°F November -5 to 0°C 23 to 32°F December -12 to -7°C 10 to 19°F Winter (Dec–Feb): Very cold, with means likely between -15°C and -7°C (5–19°F), similar to modern subarctic or high-latitude tundra climates. Frequent snow was probable, but low precipitation meant less accumulation than in modern snowy regions like upstate New York. Summer (Jun–Aug): Short and cool, with July means likely 12–17°C (54–63°F), resembling modern high-latitude coastal areas (e.g., parts of Iceland or northern Canada). Proximity to the ice sheet and cold Atlantic Ocean currents kept summers chilly. Precipitation and Snow: The climate was drier than today due to cold air holding less moisture. Snow was common in winter, but total accumulation was likely moderate, with a tundra-like landscape. Permafrost was widespread, affecting soil and vegetation. Ice Sheet Influence: The Laurentide Ice Sheet, terminating near Long Island, would have cooled NYC via cold air drainage and albedo effects. Cold ocean currents along the Atlantic coast further suppressed temperatures. Variability: Daily and annual variability was likely high, with cold snaps in winter and occasional warm days in summer. Strong winds from the ice sheet (katabatic winds) could have made conditions feel even colder.

I don't think one night in the upper 30s would do much harm to corn/maize. Obviously, if it was consistently cold (and/or moist) that would affect growth. Consistently warm overnight temperatures are a bigger concern because the plant can respire through the night and burn stored energy faster than it can be replenished. Corn is native to higher latitudes in Mexico. It does best with overnight lows from in the 50s/low 60s.

Daily Data for July 3, 1929 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. LAYTON 3 NW COOP 72 33 RUNYON COOP 76 37 CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 71 38 SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 73 40 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 75 42 SOMERVILLE 4 NW COOP 75 42 BELLEPLAIN STA FOREST COOP 76 43 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 76 43 PLAINFIELD COOP 76 44 BELVIDERE COOP 77 44 LITTLE FALLS COOP 75 44 Belvidere Area ThreadEx 77 44 DOVER COOP 73 44 PLEASANTVILLE 1 N COOP 80 45 TUCKERTON 2 NE COOP 80 45 BOONTON 1 SE COOP 76 45 ROEBLING COOP 80 46 FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 76 46 MOORESTOWN 4 E COOP 75 47 PHILLIPSBURG COOP 75 47 RIDGEFIELD COOP 75 47 CULVERS LAKE COOP M 47 LAMBERTVILLE RIVER COOP 73 47 LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 76 48 NEW BRUNSWICK EXPERIMENT STATION COOP 74 48 NEW MILFORD COOP 78 48 NEWTON COOP 78 48 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 74 48 TRENTON-NOTTINGHAMWA COOP M 50 PATERSON COOP 76 51 TRENTON WBAN 73 53 Trenton Area ThreadEx 73 53 CAPE MAY 2 NW COOP 76 54 JERSEY CITY COOP 79 56 ATLANTIC CITY MARINA WBAN 78 58 Atlantic City Marina Area ThreadEx 78 58 ELIZABETH COOP 78 70

According to the records of NCEI, lows in the 30s were observed somewhere in the State of New Jersey in the following years. Note, this is not an exhaustive list of ALL 30s. Some of these years had more than one site and/or more than one day in the 30s. This is just the lowest observation each year. The all-time statewide monthly record low is 33F, set at Layton 3 NW on July 3, 1929. The last time a low below 40F was observed in the state during the month of July was July 9, 2000, when Lambertville reported a low of 38F. 1890: 39F 1898: 38F 1899: 38F 1903: 38F 1909: 39F 1912: 36F 1918: 39F 1925: 39F 1927: 36F 1929: 33F 1939: 38F 1943: 39F 1945: 36F 1954: 39F 1957: 38F 1975: 39F 1986: 39F 2000: 38F

For Connecticut, I expect the July mean to come in around 75.2F, which would make this the third hottest July on record. 2023 is tied for 7th hottest with 1999 (mean of 74.8F), and this July has averaged 0.435F warmer across the same basket of stations. Cooler weather today may impact this a bit, but probably at least 75F, which would still be 4th hottest.

Here's what PRISM has for nationwide lows. We have a very good shot at setting a national monthly record here. Current record is around +1.8F (relative to 1991-2020).

I am having trouble loading NCEI's Climate at a Glance, seems to load better at the end of each day. But I think I did undersell this July a bit. Looking at the numbers, I think a lot of statewide means will come in significantly higher than shown by the urban stations. Rural and high elevation sites looked to be the most above normal, which aren't really reflected in the numbers. I didn't look at New England, but I think a Top 5 hottest July on record is on tap for New York (~4), New Jersey (~2), Pennsylvania (~4), West Virginia (~3), Virginia (~3), Maryland (~2 or 3) and other states. Ohio looked like around 11th place, but a top 10 is possible. Some of these mountainous locations were throwing up unprecedented minimum temperatures. PRISM has this at +1.464F nationally (relative to 1991-2020), which is a very impressive tally for July. I will note, however, that NCEI has tended to come in somewhat lower with anomalies in recent years (as a general rule). So that might be a little inflated. However, if it's in the ballpark with NCEI, we are well within striking distance of a record hot summer. The current record is +1.67F for JJA set in 1936 & tied in 2021. The thing about those summers is they were driven by DRY heat. 1936 was one of the driest years on record (e.g., hottest on record at Des Moines but also lowest mean dewpoint by a long margin). 2021 was driven by extreme anomalies in the arid western U.S. This is another beast altogether... the combination of heat & humidity might just be the most extreme since records have been kept. This summer would also likely do better on a population-weighted basis. 1936 was driven by insane anomalies in places where nobody lives, especially in that era (e.g., North & South Dakota).

Incredible stuff. Up to 9th warmest July overall at Pittsburgh, and 4th warmest since 1901 (excluding the early steroid-era records) behind only 1934, 1921 & 2020. I expect July to come in around 74.3F statewide, which would tie 2011 for 4th hottest (since 1895) for the statewide mean. This is based off of a current statewide (unweighted) mean of 75.4F from 105 well separated climate stations. Gridding/aerial averaging (urban adjustments?) have generally shaved off about 1-1.1F from the simple arithmetic mean in recent years with a similar basket of stations, which would bring us to about 74.3F. Monthly Data for July 2025 for Pennsylvania Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. LANCASTER AIRPORT WBAN 79.2 MIDDLETOWN HARRISBURG INT'L AP WBAN 79.9 HARRISBURG CAPITAL CITY AP WBAN 78.7 JOHNSTOWN CAMBRIA COUNTY AP WBAN 73.4 READING REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 80.0 BRADFORD REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 69.8 PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 81.9 YORK AIRPORT WBAN 77.5 NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 79.3 PITTSBURGH ALLEGHENY COUNTY AP WBAN 76.5 PITTSBURGH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 77.2 ALLENTOWN LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 77.5 DUBOIS REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 73.0 WILLIAMSPORT REGIONAL AP WBAN 77.0 FRANKLIN WBAN 74.1 ERIE INTL AP WBAN 74.6 WASHINGTON COUNTY AP WBAN 75.9 HERITAGE FIELD AIRPORT WBAN 78.4 MEADVILLE PORT MEADVILLE AP WBAN 73.6 SELINSGROVE PENN VALLEY AP WBAN 75.9 DOYLESTOWN AIRPORT WBAN 78.2 WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 75.5 ALTOONA BLAIR COUNTY AP WBAN 74.8 CLEARFIELD LAWRENCE AP WBAN 73.5 BUTLER COUNTY AIRPORT WBAN 75.4 AVONDALE 2 N WBAN 76.9 POCONO MOUNTAINS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 71.6 Allentown Area ThreadEx 77.5 Avoca Area ThreadEx 75.5 Erie Area ThreadEx 74.6 Williamsport Area ThreadEx 77.0 Middletown-Harrisburg Area ThreadEx 79.9 Philadelphia Area ThreadEx 81.9 Pittsburgh Area ThreadEx 77.2 Reading Area ThreadEx 80.0 Mount Pocono Area ThreadEx 71.6 ALLEGHENY PENNSYLVANIA RAWS 72.5 PHOENIXVILLE 1 E COOP 80.0 DONEGAL 2 NW COOP 71.4 NESHAMINY FALLS COOP 77.7 CHARLEROI LOCK 4 COOP 80.4 LEBANON 2 W COOP 74.3 SELLERSVILLE COOP 77.6 BLUE MARSH LAKE COOP 77.4 POINT MARION LOCK 8 COOP 76.6 CONFLUENCE 1 SW DAM COOP 74.5 SAFE HARBOR DAM COOP 79.7 BIGLERVILLE COOP 78.5 CHAMBERSBURG 1 ESE COOP 70.8 WAYNESBURG 1 E COOP 75.7 CONNELLSVILLE 2 SSW COOP 77.4 LANCASTER 2 NE FILT PLANT COOP 79.2 SHIPPENSBURG COOP 78.5 NORRISTOWN COOP 79.6 FORD CITY 4 S DAM COOP 76.1 BELTZVILLE DAM COOP 75.3 BEAVER FALLS 1 NE COOP 76.0 LEHIGHTON 1SSW COOP 76.0 MAHANOY CITY 2 N COOP 74.2 STATE COLLEGE COOP 76.0 SUNBURY COOP 76.5 PUTNEYVILLE 2 SE DAM COOP 72.2 EAST STROUDSBURG COOP 75.0 SLIPPERY ROCK 1 SSW COOP 73.4 MURRYSVILLE 2 SW COOP 76.3 BRADDOCK LOCK 2 COOP 77.3 EBENSBURG SEWAGE PLANT COOP 69.9 SALINA 3 W COOP 75.8 ACMETONIA LOCK 3 COOP 75.8 LEWISTOWN COOP 76.4 GLENWILLARD DASHIELDS LOCK AND DAM COOP 78.2 INDIANA 3 SE COOP 73.7 NATRONA LOCK 4 COOP 77.0 SCHENLEY LOCK 5 COOP 78.4 MONTGOMERY LOCK & DAM COOP 75.9 LOCK HAVEN SEWAGE PLANT COOP 76.6 FRANCIS E WALTER DAM COOP 72.0 CLARION 3 SW COOP 74.4 RENOVO COOP 76.0 ALVIN R BUSH DAM COOP 75.2 FRANKLIN COOP 75.8 STEVENSON DAM COOP 74.8 RIDGWAY COOP 72.8 TIONESTA 2 SE LAKE COOP 75.0 PROMPTON DAM COOP 76.6 BRADFORD 4SW RES 5 COOP 71.8 LAPORTE COOP 70.2 EMSWORTH L/D OHIO RIVER COOP 78.0 NEW HOLLAND 2 SE COOP 79.2 COWANESQUE DAM COOP 73.2 SPRINGBORO 3 WNW COOP 72.7 GRAYS LANDING COOP 76.1 LEWISBURG COOP 75.5 LAUREL SUMMIT COOP 71.3 PHILIPSBURG 2 S COOP 72.9 SELINSGROVE 2 S COOP 76.4 COUDERSPORT 1 SW COOP 72.8 ALTOONA 7 SW COOP 75.3 GRAMPIAN 1E COOP 73.1 CARLISLE WATER PLANT COOP 76.3 MOON TOWNSHIP COOP 76.4 CASHTOWN 1S COOP 76.7 RAYSTOWN HQ COOP 75.0 HIDDEN VALLEY COOP 71.9 KINZUA DAM COOP 74.0 LAUGHLINTOWN 1SW COOP 73.3 MARTINS CREEK COOP 77.2 TITUSVILLE WATER WORKS COOP 72.4 CANTON COOP 73.4 PLEASANT MOUNT 1 W COOP 70.6 WELLSBORO 4 SW COOP 71.2 PORT ALLEGANY COOP 71.0 WARREN COOP 73.0 TIOGA HAMMOND DAM COOP 72.9

Should finish rather close to the hottest July and any month on record for Virginia, West Virginia, and Maryland. Looking at the current statewide numbers, I'm thinking 3rd place, perhaps even 2nd in Maryland. Maybe somewhat surprising looking only at the urban numbers, but a lot of rural and high elevation locations have cooked this month.

I project a mean July temperature of approximately 72.2F (+/- 0.5F) for the statewide average, which would make 2025 the 4th hottest July (and 4th hottest of any month) for the State of New York.

Currently projecting the Pennsylvania statewide average temperature for July to come in around 74.3F on NCEI, which would tie 2011 for 4th place. I would assess an error margin of about 0.5F to that, which would place this year between 2nd place and 9th place.

Don, a break in the heat may be coming, but it does look like there's the potential for air quality concerns. Will have to wait & see if this eventually spreads into the northeast as we head into the weekend.

Nice pics, and a good reminder that the climate is always changing... just usually a little slower than these days. I remarked recently on the irony of having the Great Lakes exist in a future hothouse earth, carved from that same ice just 14,000 years ago.

Boston down to a chilly 78F. Even colder than Hyannis (87F), Plymouth (90F) and Martha's Vineyard (81F). No chance MeteoMark would go into a pool in those conditions.

2012 saw a similar pattern to those years:

Made it up to 91F today at PIT (so far). 5th day at or above 90F in the last 6 days (only exception, 89F on Sunday).

I'm guessing the clouds from which it was falling were blocked by terrain from the observer's view point? The clouds may have dissipated or moved out of view while the snow was still drifting to the ground, I suppose.

Wow! Scorcher today in Chester County, even in these carefully curated cool microclimates. That's a big pet peeve of mine... why spend all of this money on a "mesonet" and then place all of the equipment on farms or in parks, rather than in the communities where people live and work.

Coming on the heels of the infamous "Hard Winter" of 1880-1881, snow in September... folks must have really been battening down the hatches for a brutal winter. Only to have the rugged completely pulled out from under them. The Long Winter of 1880/81 in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Volume 101 Issue 6 (2020) Hard Winter of 1880–81 - Wikipedia

One thing that's interesting about 1881, September was blazing hot in the east, but there was a bunch of snow in the west. Flurries in St. Vincent and Moorhead, Minnesota on the 4th - yes, just 4 days out of August! A swath of 4-6 inches of snow from Iowa to Minnesota on the 16th. Cheyenne, Wyoming even performed the remarkable feat of a 15-minute snow shower from a cloudless sky on the 29th. It was even so cold in Texas and Oklahoma (then known as Indian Territory) that a ton of cattle died. This is unthinkable in September. More on that outrageous snow storm from September 16, 1881: Snow in September? It’s happened before | Schnack's Weather Blog | kwwl.com Sept16Snow.pdf

Any thoughts on what went wrong to keep the historic heat away? Looking at the overall rankings (projected through the end of the month), certainly very high compared to the entire period of record. But, in the year 2025, I wouldn't call this historic. If this were 2000, maybe. But looking under the hood, even the very highly ranked sites are only running in line with recent years... E.g., Burlington is forecast to finish 6th since 1884, yet it's only the 5th hottest July in the last 7 years, leading me to believe that, in the current regime, it was actually a rather cool July?

Newark is on a bay. But I'm talking about Syracuse, Albany, Burlington, Vermont, and Scranton, Pennsylvania, not the midwest. Annual maximum has trended up at all of those locations since 1990, as has number of 90+ days (by a significant margin). And that's despite any bias that may have been occasioned by the use of the HO-83 at the beginning of this period. You'll note most sites show a big dropoff in 90F days around 1996 with the installation of ASOS, but have since trended continuously upwards. Annual Maximum: 90+ Days: