TheClimateChanger

I think people need to temper their expectations a bit. It's not supposed to be nonstop 80s and 90s all summer long. I was reading P. Vanderbilt Spader's weather record for New Brunswick, New Jersey. He installed self-registering max/min thermometers on February 1, 1857, with periodic records back to 1847. And it looks very similar to those old Newark records you shared earlier this summer. I'm not sure what's going on here, but the summer temperature and precipitation regime looks more like New Brunswick, Canada than New Brunswick, New Jersey. Looks cold and wet. Very weird. Weather Record for New Brunswick, New Jersey, 1847-1890 - Google Books

Thanks for the update, Don. Akron, Ohio saw its driest month on record. Not just driest August, but driest of any month. Looking over the numbers, it looks like Ohio had either its driest or second driest August on record. Pennsylvania looks like a top 5 driest August as well. I didn't look at any other states, but it looks like dryness prevailed from Missouri to Maine.

Nice graphic. Just curious - Is this data from NCEI? What is the source for the last 30 days? I just took a look at precipitation data from all CoCoRAHS, Coops, and WBAN sites, and I think August will be among the Top 5 driest for Pennsylvania. It looks like it was either the driest or 2nd driest for the State of Ohio. The official NCEI values are scheduled for release next Tuesday, I believe. Average of 269 well-separated stations with no missing data is 1.94 inches. Average of 417 stations with not more than 5 missing days is 1.90 inches. This actually gives a pretty good estimate of what the official tally will be, so it looks like the statewide average will come in under 2" for the month, although gridding could make it close. There are only 4 Augusts with a statewide mean under 2" (1930, 1957, 1995, and 1951).

Rankings are also misleading these days too, because of so many recent years being anomalously warm. I suspect the CONUS finishes in 12th place for summertime mean. However, if it does so, it would be warmer than EVERY summer before 2006, except for the dust bowl juggernauts of 1936 & 1934. For those of us who were around in the 1990s, those seemed like insurmountable numbers. Not even scorching summers like 1995 and 1988 could surpass those. And so the 12th place finish really seems to undersell just how hot this summer was. In the 1990s or early 2000s, if someone came out and said this summer the CONUS would be hotter than every year except 1934 & 1936, everybody would recognize that is a VERY hot summer with massive cooling demands, etc. The media would be running constant stories about the heat and ramping up hysteria about climate change and a new dust bowl. That doesn't happen anymore. With that said, 1936 still holds the #1 slot (now tied with 2021). I think it's only a matter of time before we see a summer (or summers) that far surpass anything previously observed when you look at how many recent summers are in the top 10 nationally. It won't take much more warming to get us to that point.

If August comes in exactly at the 1991-2020 mean, summer would finish up around 73.22F. If August comes in at +0.2F, then the final summer tally would be 73.29F. If August comes in at +0.5F, the final summer value would be 73.39F. All of these are 12th warmest between 2018 (73.48F) and 2002 (73.16F). So I doubt it will finish in the top 11. Likely range 12th-15th, with 12th being most probable IMO. To put it another way, August can finish anywhere between 0.2F below and 0.7F above the 1991-2020 mean, and we'd still probably wind up in 12th place.

Should finish around 12th place IMO. The last PRISM update had us at +.22F for the month of August compared to 1991-2020 mean. Even if NCEI comes it at -0.3F below the 1991-2020 mean, we'd still have a summer mean of 73.12 (13th place). To drop to 15th place, August would need to come in around -0.5F below the 1991-2020 mean, which would give a summer mean of 73.06F. I don't think PRISM would be off that significantly, especially with the sign of the departure.

I haven't looked at any other states, but I suspect this will go in the books as the second driest August for the state of Ohio with a chance for #1. Precipitation is a bit more difficult to track as a statewide average, but it was very dry.

While summer is coming to an end on a bit of a disappointing note with very chilly temperatures to close out August, it will still go in the books as a fairly hot summer overall. Provisionally for August statewide means, I have the following: Michigan: 67.3, 42nd warmest Ohio: 70.8, 58th coldest Indiana: 71.9, 52nd coldest West Virginia: 70.1, 56th coldest Kentucky: 75.1, 59th warmest For meteorological summer, I calculate the following provisional statewide means: Michigan: 68.1, 19th warmest Ohio: 73.3, 10th warmest Indiana: 74.4, 22nd warmest West Virginia: 72.6, 6th warmest Kentucky: 76.6, 13th warmest

Down to 32 at Zelienople Municipal AP AWOS: https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KPJC.html

For the statewide averages, I expect Pennsylvania to check in around 67.9F for the month of August, and West Virginia around 70.0F, both of which are around 50th coldest August of record (since 1895). Meteorological summer should finish around 70.5F for Pennsylvania and 72.5F for West Virginia. That would finish up as 14th warmest for the State of Pennsylvania (since 1895) and tied for 7th warmest for West Virginia (since 1895), with 1901, 1949 & 1952. If anything, I think this projection might be slightly low for August but should be within about 0.1F of the final summer tally IMO, as I would have to be more than 0.3F off for August to be more than 0.1F off for the summer as a whole. Although the statewide numbers are so crowded that even a tenth of a degree can swing things a few places as evidenced by all the multi-year ties.

After a generally hot and humid summer, August is closing out on significantly cooler than normal. August mean should drop around 0.9F with the last 3 days factored in, with the 3-month summer average dropping around 0.3F (0.9F/3). Looking at some long-term "threaded" climate sites, PIT should finish around 73.9F, which would drop us from a 3-way tie for 11th (1877, 1880) to a 2-way tie for 16th place in the threaded record (1878). At Wheeling, summer should finish around 73.4F, dropping from a 2-way tie for 5th (2010), down to 8th place. Note - lengthy gap here from the mid 50s to late 90s... not a whole lot of hot summers in that stretch but at least a couple are missing that can be seen in the PIT and MGW threads (e.g., 1991 & 1995). Morgantown should finish around 73.9F, dropping from 7th place to a 3-way tie for 11th place (2005, 1991).

I'm still under 1/2 of an inch for the entire month.

Wow! Looks like the Army Corps is going to be a lot of dredging for a fourth consecutive autumn. Hopefully, we don't see the salt intrusion problems of recent years in NOLA.

How did this work out? Akron, Ohio was supposed to get 3.5" of rain from the "biblical storm" and 4-5" over the 2 weeks. Instead, it will be the driest month on record - not just the driest August, the driest of ANY month.

On the plus side, it will be the hottest summer on record in the UK. The UK Met Office needs to brace for some unhinged comments from social media users. For some of these guys, 1976 will always be king no matter how hot recent summers are. You can already see some of the trolls from across the pond recycling the same nonsense as the trolls here about airport tarmacs and jet engine blasts: I suspect the CONUS will slot in around 12th place overall, and warmer than any pre-21st century summers except 1934 & 1936, but I guess that's a big victory for the trolls these days. I've already been called out by the usual suspects for not providing a list of record lows. In reality, I'm just trying to take a break from the trolls!

This has just been a brutal stretch though. Here is where we were for summer to date through the 15th of the month: And here is where we are now projected to finish:

IEM is maybe a little overdone here, but very impressive dry pattern. This seems to be the trend these days with dryness August-October, after spring/early summer deluges.

In 2025, one can just make something up, post it on social media, and others will believe it. Obviously, the Carr Fork Lake number is erroneous, and the 2012 occurrence at Greenup looks to be an error as well. In 1986 and 1946, clearly a number of stations observed lows in the 30s in Kentucky. In August 1986, nearly 1/4 of all NWS stations in the State had a low in the 30s. And this is just official cooperative stations, not backyard thermometers or mesonets or whereever that is sourced from. Kentucky's highest point is 4,145 feet. Those elevated valleys in the east can radiate well.

Q: How about ignoring the human aspect? Which one carried more total heat? A temp of 92F, and dewpoint of 75F, or a temp. of 104F, and dewpoint of 50F? To determine which condition carries more total heat, ignoring the human aspect, we need to evaluate the total energy content of the air, which depends on both temperature and moisture content. The enthalpy of the air, which measures the total heat (sensible heat from temperature plus latent heat from moisture), is the appropriate metric. Wet bulb temperature can help approximate this, but we’ll calculate enthalpy directly using the given temperatures and dewpoints.Given Conditions: Condition 1: Dry bulb temperature = 92°F, Dewpoint = 75°F Condition 2: Dry bulb temperature = 104°F, Dewpoint = 50°F Step 1: Understand the Components Dry bulb temperature reflects the sensible heat (energy associated with temperature). Dewpoint indicates the moisture content, which relates to latent heat (energy tied to water vapor). Higher dewpoint means more moisture, contributing to latent heat, while higher dry bulb temperature increases sensible heat. Enthalpy (in Btu/lb of dry air) combines both sensible and latent heat and is commonly used in psychrometrics to compare total heat content. Step 2: Approximate Enthalpy CalculationEnthalpy of moist air can be calculated using the formula: h=0.24⋅T+W⋅(1061+0.444⋅T)h = 0.24 \cdot T + W \cdot (1061 + 0.444 \cdot T)h = 0.24 \cdot T + W \cdot (1061 + 0.444 \cdot T) where: ( h ) is enthalpy (Btu/lb of dry air), ( T ) is dry bulb temperature (°F), ( W ) is the humidity ratio (lb of water vapor per lb of dry air), 0.24 is the specific heat of dry air (Btu/lb·°F), 1061 is the latent heat of vaporization of water (Btu/lb at 0°F), 0.444 is the specific heat of water vapor (Btu/lb·°F). The humidity ratio ( W ) depends on the dewpoint, which determines the vapor pressure of water in the air. We can estimate ( W ) using the saturation pressure at the dewpoint and the atmospheric pressure (assumed standard at 14.696 psia or 101.325 kPa).Step 2a: Calculate Humidity RatioThe humidity ratio is given by: W=0.62198⋅PvP−PvW = \frac{0.62198 \cdot P_v}{P - P_v}W = \frac{0.62198 \cdot P_v}{P - P_v} where: PvP_vP_v is the vapor pressure at the dewpoint (psia), ( P ) is atmospheric pressure (14.696 psia). The vapor pressure PvP_vP_v can be approximated using the Antoine equation or simplified correlations for saturation pressure at the dewpoint temperature. A common approximation for saturation pressure (in psia) over liquid water is: Pv=exp⁡(20.386−5132Td+459.67)P_v = \exp\left(20.386 - \frac{5132}{T_d + 459.67}\right)P_v = \exp\left(20.386 - \frac{5132}{T_d + 459.67}\right) where TdT_dT_d is the dewpoint in °F, and Td+459.67T_d + 459.67T_d + 459.67 converts to °R (Rankine).Condition 1: Dewpoint = 75°F Td=75°FT_d = 75°FT_d = 75°F , so Td+459.67=534.67°RT_d + 459.67 = 534.67°RT_d + 459.67 = 534.67°R . Pv=exp⁡(20.386−5132534.67)≈exp⁡(20.386−9.599)≈exp⁡(10.787)≈0.487 psiaP_v = \exp\left(20.386 - \frac{5132}{534.67}\right) \approx \exp(20.386 - 9.599) \approx \exp(10.787) \approx 0.487 \, \text{psia}P_v = \exp\left(20.386 - \frac{5132}{534.67}\right) \approx \exp(20.386 - 9.599) \approx \exp(10.787) \approx 0.487 \, \text{psia} . W=0.62198⋅0.48714.696−0.487≈0.302914.209≈0.0213 lb water/lb dry airW = \frac{0.62198 \cdot 0.487}{14.696 - 0.487} \approx \frac{0.3029}{14.209} \approx 0.0213 \, \text{lb water/lb dry air}W = \frac{0.62198 \cdot 0.487}{14.696 - 0.487} \approx \frac{0.3029}{14.209} \approx 0.0213 \, \text{lb water/lb dry air} . Condition 2: Dewpoint = 50°F Td=50°FT_d = 50°FT_d = 50°F , so Td+459.67=509.67°RT_d + 459.67 = 509.67°RT_d + 459.67 = 509.67°R . Pv=exp⁡(20.386−5132509.67)≈exp⁡(20.386−10.071)≈exp⁡(10.315)≈0.300 psiaP_v = \exp\left(20.386 - \frac{5132}{509.67}\right) \approx \exp(20.386 - 10.071) \approx \exp(10.315) \approx 0.300 \, \text{psia}P_v = \exp\left(20.386 - \frac{5132}{509.67}\right) \approx \exp(20.386 - 10.071) \approx \exp(10.315) \approx 0.300 \, \text{psia} . W=0.62198⋅0.30014.696−0.300≈0.186614.396≈0.0130 lb water/lb dry airW = \frac{0.62198 \cdot 0.300}{14.696 - 0.300} \approx \frac{0.1866}{14.396} \approx 0.0130 \, \text{lb water/lb dry air}W = \frac{0.62198 \cdot 0.300}{14.696 - 0.300} \approx \frac{0.1866}{14.396} \approx 0.0130 \, \text{lb water/lb dry air} . Step 2b: Calculate Enthalpy Condition 1: 92°F, Dewpoint 75°F T=92°FT = 92°FT = 92°F , W=0.0213W = 0.0213W = 0.0213 . Sensible heat: 0.24⋅92=22.08 Btu/lb0.24 \cdot 92 = 22.08 \, \text{Btu/lb}0.24 \cdot 92 = 22.08 \, \text{Btu/lb} . Latent heat term: W⋅(1061+0.444⋅92)=0.0213⋅(1061+40.848)≈0.0213⋅1101.848≈23.47 Btu/lbW \cdot (1061 + 0.444 \cdot 92) = 0.0213 \cdot (1061 + 40.848) \approx 0.0213 \cdot 1101.848 \approx 23.47 \, \text{Btu/lb}W \cdot (1061 + 0.444 \cdot 92) = 0.0213 \cdot (1061 + 40.848) \approx 0.0213 \cdot 1101.848 \approx 23.47 \, \text{Btu/lb} . Total enthalpy: h=22.08+23.47=45.55 Btu/lbh = 22.08 + 23.47 = 45.55 \, \text{Btu/lb}h = 22.08 + 23.47 = 45.55 \, \text{Btu/lb} . Condition 2: 104°F, Dewpoint 50°F T=104°FT = 104°FT = 104°F , W=0.0130W = 0.0130W = 0.0130 . Sensible heat: 0.24⋅104=24.96 Btu/lb0.24 \cdot 104 = 24.96 \, \text{Btu/lb}0.24 \cdot 104 = 24.96 \, \text{Btu/lb} . Latent heat term: W⋅(1061+0.444⋅104)=0.0130⋅(1061+46.176)≈0.0130⋅1107.176≈14.39 Btu/lbW \cdot (1061 + 0.444 \cdot 104) = 0.0130 \cdot (1061 + 46.176) \approx 0.0130 \cdot 1107.176 \approx 14.39 \, \text{Btu/lb}W \cdot (1061 + 0.444 \cdot 104) = 0.0130 \cdot (1061 + 46.176) \approx 0.0130 \cdot 1107.176 \approx 14.39 \, \text{Btu/lb} . Total enthalpy: h=24.96+14.39=39.35 Btu/lbh = 24.96 + 14.39 = 39.35 \, \text{Btu/lb}h = 24.96 + 14.39 = 39.35 \, \text{Btu/lb} . Step 3: Compare Total Heat Condition 1: 92°F, dewpoint 75°F → Enthalpy ≈ 45.55 Btu/lb. Condition 2: 104°F, dewpoint 50°F → Enthalpy ≈ 39.35 Btu/lb. ConclusionThe air at 92°F with a dewpoint of 75°F carries more total heat (enthalpy = 45.55 Btu/lb) than the air at 104°F with a dewpoint of 50°F (enthalpy = 39.35 Btu/lb). The higher moisture content (higher dewpoint) in Condition 1 contributes significantly to its latent heat, outweighing the higher sensible heat from the higher temperature in Condition 2.Thus, 92°F with a dewpoint of 75°F has more total heat.

Funny, you don't see Bastardi trot out his population-weighted metrics in recent summers. Loves to pop them out when there's a trough in the east though.

I ran this scenario through AI and it confirmed that warming hole theory is not considering latent heat effects (increased water vapor), only sensible heat (dry bulb). Total heat (enthalpy) has likely continued to increase. In fact, if you consider latent heat effects, then places in the southwest with extreme sensible heat increases may actually have less total heat increase (since latent heat has decreased in those areas, evidenced by declining dewpoints).

Ok, well, I don't believe that. It's not 10C (18F!) warmer in a sunny neighborhood versus a shady one if the thermometer is properly sheltered or aspirated. My car thermometer doesn't register anywhere near that difference and it's housed like a foot or so above the asphalt.

Speaking of lows:

Excellent post, Tip. The part I emboldened in is an excellent point. One I have made numerous times. When you factor that into the equation, there is NO central US warming hole. It disappears. Current summers FEEL much hotter than summers of the past, including the Dust Bowl, which were the driest (least humid) on record. And while some may say "heat index" is subjective, it's really just a proxy for the wet bulb temperature reading. And that can, in fact, become deadly, even at relatively modest dry bulb temperatures with full (or near full) saturation. Anyways, I often see certain people who deny (some people on here get offended with the term "denier" even though they have used that term profusely in the past, but I digress)... people who deny climate change often say highs are of more value, because lows are more affected by UHI. I would actually argue the exact opposite, and say high temperature readings are more impacted by siting/exposure characteristics and equipment, and low temperatures give us a better look at actual trends.