TheClimateChanger

1977 would be a summer of yore [in terms of cold, not heat] today. Freezing cold compared to most summers nowadays. Sorry, I don't buy all of those 100s at Central Park. Central Park is typically one of the cooler spots, not the absolute hottest spot. That makes zero sense. Why would a park be hotter than an asphalt-ridden airport? 74.8F mean at EWR is COLD compared to most summers. This is not believable:

Yeah, but like I said in the other thread, that might actually be a cold summer for a +1.5C world. Imagine when the weather gods bless us with the right pattern to maximize heat. It might blow way by those levels.

Don't forget about natural variability. Like recent summers - well above historical norms - might actually be unusually cold summers for a +1.5C world. You need at least 30-50 years of data to get a full sense of what the climate of a given region is capable of producing in terms of extremes. Right now, we only have a couple of years' worth of data at +1.5C. It might be that, given the right pattern, we could see a summer far exceeding anything ever recorded.

NCEI has last summer as the warmest on record for the Northern District of New Jersey, which is well supported by that data. 1993 was very hot, no doubt, but overall mean temperatures were somewhat higher last summer. So, it's funny to argue there's been a lack of recent heat waves when just last summer was one of the hottest on record in that area.

Newark is clearly the hot spot, but 1993 was next level. It's like going from Barry Bonds to Barry Bonds on steroids and human growth hormone.

For comparison, here are the two most recent summers where EWR was warmest but only by 0.5F over the second. To be honest, by mean temperature, last summer was very comparable overall to 1993 in NWS Upton's CWA. Some places with overlapping data were even warmer last year... Islip, for instance, was 1.7F warmer in 2024 than 1993. Even in 2023, Islip was 0.1F warmer than 1993.

It was the warmest site in NWS Upton's CWA by 1.7F that summer by mean temperature. It still tends to be the warmest site, but not nearly by that much. And the max temperature data from Wayne [second warmest mean] is highly suspect with nearly 20 more 90+ days than even EWR. Next closest was LGA, which was 2.3F cooler.

Just look at Morgantown, West Virginia, it was 86F today. In 1882, the hottest temperature observed all year was 85F. I think some would greatly benefit by recognizing that not every summer is going to have 25-30 days of 90F. That's not typical at all.

This has been a fine spring for Dayton, Ohio. A little on the wet side, but almost no snow and warm temperatures. In fact, if the month ended yesterday, this would go in the books as the 7th warmest spring at the Dayton International Airport (since 1936, excludes threaded records). And this doesn't even include today's torch. People like to act as though it's supposed to be in the 90s all summer long, but that's just not how the climate works. There have been entire years where the hottest temperature observed at Dayton was only a handful of degrees above today's warmth. So I would urge everyone to enjoy the next couple of days, instead of fretting over whether it's going to be in the 60s and rainy next week. As JB says, "enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you've got."

This jives with my recollections. It was much snowier as a child. Just look at the data for Cleveland. Snowfall has been in a free fall since 2014. This winter was considered a harsh winter, but just two decades ago, it would have been heralded as a very mild winter. I would expect that trend to increase with time.

Daily record of 93F at Chicago O'Hare. Midway Airport reached 94F.

Here is New Brunswick, NJ versus Newark for July 1993. New Brunswick was 0.6F above the 1991-2020 normal [measured with standard MMTS] versus Newark 4.3F above 1991-2020 normal [with HO-83]. Certainly seems highly suspect to me. One note - there appears to be a 1-day offset for the New Brunswick data, as the observation must have been taken the following morning and ascribed to that day [even though the maximum would have occurred the prior afternoon].

I also wouldn't put much stock into the 1986-1995 era, which shows tons of big heat. The HO-83 had a significant warm bias. See: Inside the HO83 Hygrothermometer « Climate Audit Here is comparative data from Lincoln, NE, for 1991 & 1992, comparing readings from the HO-83 versus a newly installed ASOS. There was only 1 day where the HO-83 max was lower than the ASOS. On one date, it was 7 degrees warmer! We have to remember our ability to measure temperature today is better than at any point in history. As almost any bias results in a warmer temperature [except for poor calibration, which could go either way, and shading, which introduces a cool bias], this naturally makes it more difficult to reach these lofty readings with regularity. Shading is probably a bigger issue today. I know NYC doesn't comply with setbacks and I see trees around a lot of sites.

I wouldn't put too much emphasis on the older records. It's not always an apples-to-apples comparison to modern data. The thermometers were typically housed in cotton region shelters on rooftops, which can introduce significant warming bias relative to ground-based readings. No correction is ever made for this bias. By the time they decommissioned the Baltimore Common House station, it was reporting dozens more days of 90+ than the airport. Watts somehow flips this to say it's causing a warming bias, when a more reasonable conclusion is that if we continued measuring temperature consistently at Baltimore, there would be dozens of additional days at or above 90F each summer. See: How not to measure temperature, part 48. NOAA cites errors with Baltimore's Rooftop USHCN Station – Watts Up With That?

It takes decades to get the full panoply of possible climatological outcomes in a stable climate. We have only surpassed 1.5C for a couple of years. Even if temperatures were to stabilize at this point for several decades, we would likely eventually see a summer heat wave exceeding anything of record as we started to "feel" the full impact of variability upon a new climatological state.

While less impressive from a historical standpoint, EWR saw 10 straight 90+ days in early August 2022. They also had streaks of 14 days (2010) and 12 days (2012), since 2002.

As recently as 2022, a 6-day heatwave at JFK matched its third longest string on record. A completely separate 8-day heatwave at LaGuardia later in the same summer also matched its 3 longest streak.

There's nearly 100 years with, more or less, complete data for May in the threaded record. As for that claim, possible, but unlikely. Fort Frances, Ontario is just across the border from International Falls and shows 0 days of 90+ that month. The second closest site (Littlefork Ranger Station) recorded 1 day.

It's observed from space. Less reflectivity would make it appear somewhat dimmer.

I would say a monthly record high maximum of 96F and monthly record high minimum of 70F are potentially deadly in a location with limited air conditioning. But this is a sparsely populated region, so one or two deaths over the baseline wouldn't even register as a blip.

A record-breaking 4th 90+ day at International Falls. Never before observed in the month of May. For some context, Cleveland has only seen one May with 4 or more days of 90+ (1962, 4); Detroit, 3 (1962, 6; 2018, 4; and 1895, 4); and Bristol, TN, 2 (1962 & 1941, 6). INL has twice as many days at or above 90+ than Dayton, Ohio has seen in the last 13 years! International Falls working hard to shed that the "icebox of the nation" title. I think we are really going to need to reconsider that title moving forward in a location that sees this kind of heat in the month of May.

International Falls has seen twice as many 90+ days in the month of May over the last 4 days than Dayton, Ohio has seen in the last 13 years! Just unreal. @Spartman

To put that into perspective, Cleveland has only seen one May with 4 90+ days (1962); Detroit, 3 times: 1962 (6), 2018 (4), and 1895 (4); and Bristol/Johnson City, Tennessee, twice (1962 & 1941, 6 each). And for those who would blame the latter on elevation, Tri-Cities Airport in Tennessee is actually closer in elevation to International Falls than the other two cities. International Falls looking to shed its title as "icebox of the nation" in a BIG way!

Incredible stuff. Record breaking 4th day at or above 90F yesterday at International Falls. That's the most ever recorded in the month of May, with 17 days remaining in the month.

He also never posts the record lows which would invariably show a much greater bias towards early year than record highs, especially using his convention of ignoring subsequent ties.