TheClimateChanger

As expected, the warmth has expanded over the Upper Midwest. As of shortly before noon local time, Madison and La Crosse were up to 50F, and Green Bay was at 46F, all of which are new daily records. The temperature at Rockford read 51F, one shy of the daily record. The all-time monthly record at La Crosse is 57F, set on January 1, 1897, January 3, 1874, and on January 25, 1981, which could be in jeopardy this afternoon. Of note, the all-time monthly record for February was set just last year, when the proverbial mercury reached a scorching 69F on February 27. Some would say that's a very nice number.

The winter of 1797-1798 must have pretty solid as well. Fine sleighing conditions, no doubt. The Tidewater Region probably had more snow in this 10-day stretch than they've had in the entire 21st century. Excerpt from "Why the Weather?" by Charles Frankin Brooks (1924). Some more details:

A couple others to look out for... forgot to check the NWS office in La Crosse, Wisconsin. La Crosse: 48F Forecast: 57F Rochester: 48F Forecast: 53F The forecast high of 57F at La Crosse would match the all-time January record.

Another round of near-record warmth is possible on Sunday, February 2nd, in some locations.

Widespread record-breaking warmth likely over the Upper Midwest tomorrow. The forecast high of 53F for GRB would obliterate the daily record by 11F, and come within 3F of the all-time January monthly record high. La Crosse, Wisconsin may reach 57F, which would match the all-time monthly high. Some records for 1/30 to keep an eye on, with forecast values in bold, for sites with long PORs: Minneapolis: 48F Forecast: 49F St. Cloud: 44F Forecast: 44F Eau Claire: 50F Forecast: 48F Madison: 47F Forecast: 54F Milwaukee: 53F Forecast: 54F Rockford: 52F Forecast: 54F Chicago: 55F Forecast: 53F Green Bay: 42F Forecast: 53F Wausau: 43F Forecast: 48F Rhinelander: 44F Forecast: 44F La Crosse: 48F Forecast: 57F Rochester: 48F Forecast: 53F

As shown by the map shared by @A-L-E-K, some of these forecast values may be overly conservative.

As noted elsewhere in this thread, MSP tied a record of 47F yesterday. Much more widespread record-breaking warmth is expected tomorrow in the Midwest. Some records to watch for 1/30, from long POR sites, with current forecasted values in bold. Minneapolis: 48F Forecast: 49F St. Cloud: 44F Forecast: 44F Eau Claire: 50F Forecast: 48F Madison: 47F Forecast: 54F Milwaukee: 53F Forecast: 54F Rockford: 52F Forecast: 54F Chicago: 55F Forecast: 53F Green Bay: 42F Forecast: 53F Wausau: 43F Forecast: 48F Rhinelander: 44F Forecast: 44F Most notably, at Green Bay, the forecast for tomorrow is a whopping 11F warmer than the daily record and just 3F shy of the January monthly record. Quite uncharacteristic for the home of Lambeau Field in January.

I took a deep dive on that winter. While definitely meager on the snowfall totals, the 9.9" figure is missing two snow events. An even deeper dive under the hood reveals the reason for the missing data. What is now the official "station thread" was then jumping around between what is now known as Quad Cities International Airport and the WB office in downtown Davenport, Iowa, as there were periods without observations at the airport. Looking at an old annual weather review for MLI, we can see that there was no snowfall observations in December, January and February at the airport, but portions of the station thread incorporate the airport data for the months of December and February, as there were temperature and precipitation observations. Unfortunately, this results in the missing snowstorm from early December 1936 (see earlier post), and also loss of snow that fell in an apparent rain-to-snow event in late February. Davenport WBO only had 2.5" and 1.3" in those events, but even that would place 1936-1937 out of futility. Judging by the observed temps and precipitation in the early December event, it would appear likely that the airport area had more snowfall in that event. The missing data could be rectified by simply using the city office observations for the entire month of December & February, but unfortunately that's not what the station thread does. The Davenport WBO records for January also inexplicably have a few dates on which snowdepth increased, even though no measurable snowfall fell. I can live with that - even if it is an anomaly/irregularity - but the missing data ought to be rectified. This was also the case in many of the early winter records, including that from the #2 lowest snow year (1901-1902). No missing data that winter though. But it was clearly miles better than this winter, with actually fairly deep snow cover (5-6") for an extended period of time, despite the reported seasonal snow being only 11.1 inches.

They have bumped it back up. Now saying near record warmth is likely. Thursday Partly cloudy in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers late in the afternoon. Near record breaking warmth likely. Highs in the lower 50s. South winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.

Probably not ready to pull the trigger on record/near-record warmth. I would imagine 50s in Chicagoland would be close to a record for January 30. Edit: Yes, looks like the record is 55F.

This is apparently a natural phenomenon. I was recently reading "Temperature Differences in Harvard Forest and their Significance" by Dr. Herbert A. Rasche, for the U.S. Army Environmental Protection Research Division (1958). Figure 100 in the report shows what are termed "melt rings" around the trees in Town Line Swamp Knoll in March 1948. Apparently, the dark trees must warm up and melt the snow around them.

That's crazy. And it's not even "fake" effect snow that's like mostly air and loses like half of its depth in 24 hours.

I'm inclined to agree with you on this point. I get told on certain subforums here that top 5/top 10 hottest months, seasons, years aren't that big of a deal. Forgive me for not finding a month where historically more than 1 in every 3 years were colder. And the historical rate was probably more like 1 in 2 before the recent warm period.

Wow, that's insane. How much snow is that? Looks like a winter of yore, but it's only 14 years ago.

Honestly, that might be the reason for the flag, not any equipment problem. It looks like the high and low were simply transposed on the 28th, but you can tell the observer was not properly resetting the instruments at a fixed time each day. Which unfortunately may have divested a legitimate state record, considering the Vermont state record was set on the same date.

Probably not far off. Berlin was -41F and Pittsburg, New Hampshire was -44F on the same date. The mean temperature for the month at Pittsburg was 10.0F, just 0.7F warmer than the Dixville Notch observation. Bloomfield, Vermont reached -50F on the same date, which is the all-time record low for the State of Vermont.

Caribou had 109 inches in the winter of 1966-67, where are you getting 36? Caribou has never had such little snow.

Too bad January hath not 30 days.

Can anyone explain this? I don't dispute the finding... that is, that climate-driven warming threatens agricultural productivity in Central Europe. My question is with these depictions of historical agroclimatic zones. If you just looked at this reconstruction, you would think the period 1501-1525 had similar regional temperatures to 2001-2018, and 1926-1950 was similar to 1601-1625, one of the coldest times of the Little Ice Age, and, bizarrely, even colder in the western parts of the region of interest. My problem is this... these reconstructions make zero sense based on hundreds of years of climatology. I realize there are regional variations, but I think it's implausible that this part of the world would have experienced similar agroclimatic zones to the recent past during a time when global temperatures were more than 1C cooler than the present. If we look at recent years, which have been as much as 1.5C of warming from the late 19th century, these periods were probably 2C or more cooler based on most reliable reconstructions. 1926-1950 was also a period of relative warmth globally on a millennial or multi-millennial timeframe, with some stability or even modest cooling in the ensuing decades, only for another large step-up in temperature to occur in the latter parts of the 20th century. More caution should be had when combining proxy data and instrumental records. I feel like if 1926-1950 and 2001-2018 were calculated in the same manner as the earlier periods, there should be a lot more oranges and reds in the earlier period, and the most recent should be blood red. Something is off here. Like I said, I don't dispute the finding AT ALL. However, to me, the graphic is casting a misleading view and literally flies in the face of hundreds of years of scientific understanding of the earth's climates - an understanding and knowledge that even predates the discovery of the greenhouse effect.

One thing to note. Even in the places with large departures, most locations are not having Top 10 coldest Januarys. And these values will continue to moderate in the coming days. West Virginia is an exception with most sites currently having Top 10 cold Januarys, but a lot of those stations have significant site/elevation changes - from valley cities to elevated airports, shorter PORs and gaps in the records. That's also been the location with the largest departures relative to normal, as shown on the map. Although it does suggest that something else is going on with the position of the anomalies, other than moderation from the Great Lakes. If that was the cause, you would expect relatively warmer anomalies over western Pennsylvania and West Virginia, with the predominant northwest flow off the Lakes. Why would the warming be more significant on the Coastal Plain? It looks more like the relative position of the jet stream, blocking ridges and troughs, have a more significant impact. The relative lack of snow cover along the Coastal Plain relative to inland locations also playing a significant role. Central Park has a mean monthly snow depth of 0.3 inches, while Charleston, West Virginia has had a mean monthly snow depth of 3.4 inches, and has had at least an inch on the ground since the 5th with most days having several inches.

That’s the current steam flow map. I didn’t realize how dry it’s been in the Pacific Northwest, as well. Lots of streams at record low flow for today’s date. Isn’t it usually wet up there during La Niñas?

Let's take a look at some of the precipitation totals in the areas of drought improvement. Wheeling, West Virginia Fort Wayne, Indiana Toledo, Ohio Zanesville, Ohio Peoria, Illinois Williamsport, Pennsylvania Albany, New York