TheClimateChanger

Clouds and showers should keep high temperatures at bay today. Overall, still a pretty good look for summer lovers:

Very impressive overnight heat retention today in western New York. We will have to see if these temperatures hold, but the low of 75F would tie the record high minimum in Buffalo (1936) and the low of 73F would tie the record high minimum in Rochester (1987). At Watertown, the morning low was just 78F, 4F above the record high (74F, in 2016) and just 1F shy of the all-time record high minimum of 79F set on July 21, 2011 (records dating to 1949). The morning low of 76F at Syracuse would easily surpass the daily record high minimum of 73F, set in 1972. Developing convection could wreak havoc on these, although with dewpoints so high they might hold regardless.

One note on the IEM estimates, they tend to be off from the actual NCEI values. Comparing 1936 summer as a whole, they have it warmer than NCEI in many places (except the southwest, which they show as decidedly colder). I think the estimates for recent years are generally the opposite bias (i.e., a bit cooler). Either way, should come in as a very warm summer for the CONUS. Not sure we poach 2021 or 1936 though.

For comparison purposes, here are 1936 & 2021 to date. These are the two hottest summers on record for the CONUS. 1936 2021

Wow? Why would @ChescoWxweenie this post? These are raw, unadjusted data collected from a number of locations with PORs of 100-150+ years, and a sizeable number of them are from rural locations - including Elkins, West Virginia, which has seen its hottest start to summer on record [and by a sizeable margin, at that]. I would have thought this data would be right up his alley, since he doesn't care for any adjustments.

Just a theory, but I suspect this more closely aligns with the conditions for most of SNE.

I guess, but even Blue Hill Observatory in eastern Massachusetts (high quality, long POR) has this as 3rd hottest start to summer behind only 2024 & 1999.

The map I posted previously was exclusively ThreadEx sites with PORs 100-150+ years. I just used Mount Washington as an illustrative example. CON has a longer POR than BOS and is top 5.

I just want the correct numbers. Love it, or hate it, Boston is the place the local weatherperson will use for verification purposes. Local farmers and utility operators need the correct data. If it is local sea breezes keeping it cooler, then it shouldn't be given any special significance. I mean just look at, say, Mount Washington. Population literally zero. You get a completely different look.

Even ORH with a huge site discontinuity (elevation gain) is in 14th place, while Boston is 23rd place (and tied with 2 other years). And pretty much everywhere else is well in the top ten. Makes no sense... wonder if someone could sneak a thermometer in there to verify? Anyone that keeps personal records - are you seeing this summer as cooler than a number of recent years like the official tally at Logan Airport, or is this one of your hottest?

Good post. Warmer air holds more moisture. Doesn't mean it will fall as rain but certainly supercharges any storm that can tap into that moisture. Just anecdotally, total precipitation locally hasn't been super crazy. But there have been a number of flash flood events around the region with some of these heavy, slow-moving thunderstorms.

Wow! Can't wait to see what this looks like at the end of the week. One thing I find odd the rankings in some of the biggest cities aren't as impressive: Boston (23), New York - Central Park (15), DC (11). The hottest anomalies seem to be in places where nobody lives, like Elkins and Clarksburg, W. Va. (both 1st place). The UHI theory would predict the opposite? Not sure what is going on there. It seems some of these radiational cooling hotspots are just not radiating like they used. This very dense, vaporous atmosphere is wreaking havoc on overnight cooling. Much denser and vaporous than when I was a child.

Morning thoughts:

This is A LOT of territory seeing a top 10 hottest summer, even top 5 hottest in many locations. These are only showing long term ThreadEx sites. Wow! You can definitely see West Virginia has been ground zero for the heat this season.

Zooming in over Baltimore and Washington. In the official Baltimore thread, 2025 currently sits in 8th place. I do question the thought process of grafting on some of these rooftop Customs House readings, rather than including them in the downtown Baltimore thread. Speaking of downtown, currently in 2nd place (since 1950). IAD is checking in at 4th place summer to date. DCA is mired in an unimpressive 11th place. In fact, according to these rankings, 8 summers had as warm or warmer start just since 2010. Richmond, Virginia currently sits in 6th place, tied with 2008.

Very impressive heat across the region so far this summer. As we approach the midpoint of summer, it's clear 2025 has not disappointed for summer weather lovers. Back-to-back scorchers areawide. Might never see such extremes in two consecutive summers ever again... certainly, an impressive statistical anomaly! Some notable observations: Elkins, West Virginia has had its warmest start to summer on record, by a large margin, with 2024 dropping into 4th place. Hagerstown, Maryland has seen its 3rd warmest start to the season, behind 2010 & 2024. What a 1-2 punch with back to back scorchers in 2024 & 2025. Roanoke, Virginia has seen its 4th warmest start to the season, behind 2024, 2010 & 1925. Clarksburg, West Virginia has seen its 2nd warmest start to summer, behind only 1934's Dust Bowl aided heat. 3rd warmest at Huntington, W. Va. Easily the hottest at the current airport location. 2nd warmest at Beckley, W. Va., with 2024 in a close third.

At this rate, might not even drop below 64F.

Wow, very impressive. All of the higher streaks of my graphic are from downtown. Up to 22 days now. Today will certainly bring this up to 23 days, and the current forecast would suggest it reaches at least 29 days.

Could be a little smoky around Chicago tomorrow. A pretty good batch of smoke over the Twin Cities currently, with visibilities down to as low as 3 miles at MSP. PurpleAir gauges are showing AQI generally in the 150-200 range. Should push east tomorrow, but could make its way into northern Illinois per the HRRR. On Monday, another plume of smoke reaches the Twin Cities with degraded air quality and visibility restrictions. The initial batch settles over Michigan. While total smoke particulate quantities aren't super high, the smoke that will be present will be trapped near the surface. So it should be a hazy day with somewhat degraded air quality around Detroit, Toledo and Grand Rapids.

Hot one today in the Eastern Lakes. The high reached 93 degrees at Erie, 1 degree shy of the record set in 2005 & 1936. Cleveland officially topped off at 92 degrees, 2 shy of the record set in 1936. However, it reached 95 degrees at Burke Lakefront Airport. May have been a record if the official station was downtown as in 1936. A stout southerly, downsloping flow brought some of the warmest temperatures to the lakefront. Certainly, not cooler by the lake today!

In between the "relentless rains," Dayton has done quite well with heat. Today was the 11th 90F+ reading of the season. Dating back to 1955 (71 years), that amount has only been exceeded through today's date (July 12) in 5 years (1966, 1988, 1994, 2012, and 2020). Through yesterday, the mean temperature was 6th highest in the threaded record. A little weird that they use the warmer, low elevation Miami Conservancy District building records for 1943 & 1944, instead of the higher elevation airport site. At the airport site, it has been the warmest since 1935, outpacing both of those years. Today's heat should help these numbers somewhat. The forecast calls for generally warm and summery weather conditions over the next several days, with highs forecast in the upper 80s tomorrow & Monday, near 90 on Tuesday and Wednesday, upper 80s Thursday, and perhaps cooling to the middle 80s by Friday.

On the season to date, we are 0.1F below where we were last year (through yesterday). Today's warmth could bump us up. In the threaded record, that's the 11th warmest summer to date, with last year tied for 9th during the same period. But looking at the numbers, it looks safe to say it's been decidedly warmer across the board this year versus last with the exception of PIT and AGC.