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TheClimateChanger

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  1. TheClimateChanger
    Just an a relentless south, east, and weaker trend for 24+ hours. Unreal.
  2. TheClimateChanger
    The Mark Model still has the city at 3-6 inches.
  3. TheClimateChanger
    I can believe it. 2020s DC is basically a warmer, less snowy version of late 20th century Charlotte. CLT (1961-1990) - December, January, February Temps & October - May Snowfall
  4. TheClimateChanger
    Even that doesn't always work out.
  5. TheClimateChanger
    Seem worse than ever. Every storm is a complete guessing game until 24 hours.
  6. TheClimateChanger
    Well, 1877-78 was always considered to be the warmest of record by far, including the pioneer era records at Fort Snelling dating back to 1820. So when there's more than 200 years of data, and it's beating the record by nearly 3F, I think 1 in 1000 is a reasonable estimate for a recurrence interval, no?
  7. TheClimateChanger
    All this wintertime warmth at Dayton, and watch, you are probably going to be 89'd all summer long.
  8. TheClimateChanger
    Would be funny if Harrisburg picked up a foot and had more snow than Erie on the season midway through February.
  9. TheClimateChanger
    Brutal. At least the 3K still gives us a couple of inches.
  10. TheClimateChanger
    Hmm, I'm taking the under here.
  11. TheClimateChanger
    Well, I always get pushback when I use mean temperatures and the response is always high temperatures are more important. Applying that logic fairly, it was easily the warmest first 10 days of February:
  12. TheClimateChanger
    Yes, this is what I was getting at it. Dayton only has 5 periods with two day totals of a foot or more dating back to the 19th century (ignoring the double counting of the 1978 blizzard).
  13. TheClimateChanger
    18z GEFS is at a mean of 6.3” for the city, albeit assuming 10-1 ratio (which is probably too high).
  14. TheClimateChanger
    This is true. When I noted we haven’t had a 12” calendar day since 1994, I was playing around on xMacis with other locations, and Dayton has only ever had one day with 12” or more (and only barely) in 1978. I think warning criteria might be 4” there, but they are even worse for big storm climatology. Same deal with Columbus where I think warning criteria is the same as Pittsburgh.
  15. TheClimateChanger
    Looks like we’ve lost the HRRR. Too far south and east for most of us to get more than a couple of inches, using actual model ratios.
  16. TheClimateChanger
  17. TheClimateChanger
    Is thundersnow possible with this system?
  18. TheClimateChanger
    Impressive, and this 8.3” is with actual modeled ratios. This looks like it could be a big one.
  19. TheClimateChanger
    Wouldn’t worry too much about the global models at this time frame. Lower resolution makes it harder to model this type of a dynamic system with marginal thermals.
  20. TheClimateChanger
  21. TheClimateChanger
    Looks pretty solid to me, especially with 10:1 ratios.
  22. TheClimateChanger
    Looks like a classic late spring snowstorm. Sort of reminiscent of that March 20-21, 2018 event, which brought up to 10.5” at the airport if I recall correctly. I think we were looking at 2-4” heading into that event. Only question is how far north this event tracks. Looks like somebody will have a nice accumulation. As is the case with spring snows, shouldn’t last too long as temperatures should be above freezing most days.
  23. TheClimateChanger
    Crazy stuff. This must be a 1 in 1000-year winter heat wave up there, but barely registering with our derelict media these days. Minneapolis Green Bay Milwaukee
  24. TheClimateChanger
    Blowing snow every chance you get and being situated on a north facing slope? Plus, many recent overnights have been below freezing, potentially allowing some or all of the snow melting during the day to be replaced. Humidity levels have also been low, which would limit melting. Boston Mills has a 36" base, despite 6" of snow on the season.
  25. TheClimateChanger
    With numbers like these, Ohio might as well be the new Tennessee. Just across the river...
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