TheClimateChanger

Not looking forward to this cold next week. Wish I could book a trip to Florida until it passes. Let's hope those 300-hour projections are way off the mark.

Very 1932-esque out there.

Pretty strict size limits. I rarely post pictures, but for images I usually upload to imgur and then link.

Can sort of make out that one heavier band the NWS was concerned about possibly making it into eastern Ohio and perhaps parts of Washington County. Nothing too heavy in our immediate area otherwise. Lake enhancement certainly helping out around Cleveland and points east of there.

Can confirm snowing here. Coating on grassy surfaces

Here's what it's going to look like if that GFS fantasy storm from last night comes true.

Yeah, they were getting clobbered with moderate to heavy snow earlier.

Snow line on the move in eastern Ohio, with rain & snow mixed at CAK. Automated sensors at PHD and ZZV were reporting “UP” suggesting sleet or a rain/snow mix.

Here’s what the NWS is forecasting. 1-2” mostly, but 2-5” along & north of I-80. They do highlight that area as having the potential to see as much as 6-8” in spots due to lake bands. They also suggest the possibility of a band in the west with up to 3-5 inches possible should that occur.

CPC has done a great job this winter. They were spot on with the end of December, despite critics. BAMWx questioned CPC's outlook for 1st half of January, but it's been spot on. It was BAM's outlook that blew up.

I didn't predict that it would be either. I was just pointing out that, with the current anomaly, the second half could be completely normal and it would still be close. With that said, it's pretty much guaranteed to finish in the Top 20, with Top 10 quite likely. As the colder end, in the means, shouldn't be nearly as extreme as the current positive anomaly.

Obviously, it's going to come down. But the month is almost half over. Going to take a big change even to drop out of the Top 10. The next 10 days look like a fair balance of cold (east) and warm (west) so I wouldn't expect a huge negative departure - as the two anomalies should cancel each other out mostly. Even a zero departure or slightly negative would bring the current down substantially. But if we're sitting at say +7.0F-7.5F at the midpoint (15th), then even an average second half would make this a top five warmest January. I could see it being perhaps colder than normal, but not anywhere near the magnitude of the first half warmth.

I’m going to need a front end loader for the drive if this is correct

Not bad

Checking in on 2026... safe to say, we are picking up right where 2025 left off.

Ended up narrowly edging out 1939 for 5th place in the official records. Quite the turnaround, considering the first 15 days of the month were around 1.7F BELOW the 1991-2020 mean, per PRISM's analysis.

That was intentional. I wanted to limit the analysis to higher quality data, excluding the older, warm-biased rooftop station at the downtown WB office in Raleigh.

Interesting. I don't know how a park could have a warmer microclimate than surrounding urban neighborhoods. Doesn't make much sense.

By comparison, Orlando is pretty close to true tropical thresholds in recent years. Over the past 15 years, only January has dropped below the 18C/64.4F threshold. And only by a few degrees.

Anywhere outside of the park where people actually live? Lol.

I don't know... comparing to Orlando is comparing one extreme to the other. Recent means aren't substantially different than late 20th century norms at Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina, and I think everyone would agree on that being classed as subtropical. Certainly much closer to that than a true continental climate of say Minneapolis.