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LakePaste25

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About LakePaste25

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KERI
  • Location:
    Waterford, PA

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  1. LakePaste25
    It’s related to El Niño. It’s just a shifted pattern from past ones. My guess is the lack of arctic ridging (which is weakly correlated with +ENSO) and AGW are allowing the ridge to go further south and be much stronger.
  2. LakePaste25
    It’s free on Alex Boreham’s site (cyclonicwx.com) SST page. That second link I posted is from a forecaster that went and tabulated it for past ENSO events which isn’t paywalled either.
  3. LakePaste25
    Enso longtidue index. It’s a fairly new index that’s used to calculate the longitude in the tropical pacific (between 5N and 5S) where it’s most supportive of deep tropical convection regardless of actual SSTA. Threshold for deep tropical convection is dynamic year-year as it incorporates mean tropics SST. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL079203 There’s actually a page that calculates past events with it: https://ggweather.com/enso/eli.htm Looks like they assign the 97-98 event as the highest (note that the 220 peak is the same as 140W).
  4. LakePaste25
    ELI has already surpassed most of the historical events. i would expect this to go further east as that 30C isotherm moves east
  5. LakePaste25
    What a few of us have been saying on here:
  6. LakePaste25
    I’d argue against -PNA in general if we see less MC forcing. Even the extreme jet extensions under Eastern Pacific forcing are usually “bootleg” +PNA/+EPO as the Aleutian Low reaches the western US. Still mild for the NE. Then if forcing shifts back towards dateline, can get periods of +PNA/-EPO with actual cold air to work with.
  7. LakePaste25
    1877-78 is probably the closest to an extreme east based event. Unfortunately I cannot change the 1991-2020 climatology for this map (not an option), so you have to extrapolate that the anomalies in Nino 3 here were likely extreme for its time since the baseline SST’s have warmed since then.
  8. LakePaste25
  9. LakePaste25
    I converted these to VP anomalies. Basically the intense composite has stronger subsidence over the MC while the strong composite has stronger subsidence over S America. Makes sense.
  10. LakePaste25
    It’s basically a lower % of modoki forcing, so the SE US is NN instead of blue in the seasonal mean.
  11. LakePaste25
    yeah they’re not “cooling” by a full 2.05C from Dec to March. the seasonal climatological mean is also increasing.
  12. LakePaste25
    Yeah plus I think it’s likely to give us a better decade. Warm pool will recover somewhat after this year for sure, but we’re also removing a lot of ocean heat content this way, and it won’t be such an extreme gradient.
  13. LakePaste25
    As opposed to 2015, where it was either in the COD or 4-5-6
  14. LakePaste25
    Here’s the SH the pac jet extension and +U
  15. LakePaste25
    EPS has this really getting going in the extended:
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