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LakePaste25

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Everything posted by LakePaste25

  1. LakePaste25
    The +EPO is, but the H5 itself is not entirely cool ENSO flavored however, as the low is displaced SW will of BC into the GOA.
  2. LakePaste25
    Getting there…seeing less and less N Pac -ENSO flavored ridging out there. Does seem it’s possible we might go straight from cool ENSO pattern to full blown super Nino style (cool season) jet extension at some point between now and mid November.
  3. LakePaste25
    I agree with this. A lot of emphasis in this thread about the -PDO but I think the Arctic had much to do with it. In any sense it likely enhanced the -PDO over the summer.
  4. LakePaste25
    If CFS is going off how NOAA is calculating it, that model output makes more sense. Interesting to see the difference as Cyclonicwx’s is closer to Australian BOM’s RONI measurement.
  5. LakePaste25
    Can really see the difference here: Both had convection pretty far east, but 1983 was more concentrated just east of the dateline during February, while 1998 had more periods of Eastern Pacific forcing.
  6. LakePaste25
    I imagine this will go back up. RONI is already at +2.5 and while I am aware this is a daily index compared to a 3 month mean, it is only September and we likely have 2-3 more months until the peak. I am thinking the 3 month mean will be closer to 3-3.3
  7. LakePaste25
    ok, but your original comment that I reacted to implied that it’s only coupled in the tropics, which isn’t true.
  8. LakePaste25
    Trying to figure out when this region became the tropics.
  9. LakePaste25
    BOM updated with a +3.8C RONI. Might be too high, but it will easily get above +3C on the monthly mean.
  10. LakePaste25
    Very close to beating the all-time record warmest SST in the Nino 3.4 region.
  11. LakePaste25
    Still not sold on the PDO having any meaningful influence this cool season. But time will tell.
  12. LakePaste25
    Ah yes. The famous -PDO of September 2015 that was actually positive.
  13. LakePaste25
    Yeah for record highs in the winter at least, the classic way to do that around here is a Great Lakes Cutter tracking north and west of here. rainy/wet snow/slop mix coastals without cold air are more of a warm overnight low type of deal, and those are what I expect. December 2015 was the weird one because we actually did get lows going well NW despite being a super El Niño.
  14. LakePaste25
    Much of this winter warmth will likely be driven by overnight lows IMO due to the active pattern.
  15. LakePaste25
    Right now I’m leaning towards a fairly torchy winter with *maybe* 1 salvageable month on the back side where it’s just slightly above normal. Can’t really ignore that every analog that was supposed to give us below normal temps has busted warm thus far into mid september, and there’s no signs of October being cooler than normal yet.
  16. LakePaste25
    You can tell we are slowly getting to that warm ENSO state. Plenty of +U in the NH. Still some residual ridging out west of the Aleutians but even that’s weakening and probably flattens out with time.
  17. LakePaste25
    Officially crossed +3C on ONI and +2.5C on RONI!
  18. LakePaste25
    I’m a little more skeptical of the “back loaded Modoki” idea than I was a month ago given how this keeps evolving. What you’re saying is potentially we see an 82-83 outcome which was exactly that. Only issue is we are east of 82 and even 97 on tao/tritton so it’s difficult to just say go with “basin waters are warmer, so it’s further west” when you also have to account for the actual position of the warmest waters being further east. I think i don’t disagree yet but I need another month to see where OLR’s land vs 82 and 97.
  19. LakePaste25
    This was essentially just a slightly east-shifted version of the long term trends of summer in CONUS. The strongest El Niño on record was unable to shake it.
  20. LakePaste25
    To verify sure, there’s no requirement in how one gets there. It’s more about trusting the prognosis to begin with. Say it’s 100 in Atlanta. A model says starting tomorrow, we will see the forecast high drop 5 degrees every day for the next 6 days. So in a few days it’ll only get to 80 in Atlanta. It’s now tomorrow, and the high didn’t drop 5 degrees. It’s 99. Continue on to the next day, it’s 100 again. Why should I trust what the model is saying 3 weeks out when it’s making such a massive forecast error 2-5 days out?
  21. LakePaste25
    Further east and a much greater volume of warm water than 1997 with the 30C isotherm approaching 140W:
  22. LakePaste25
    So it’s already initialized too low? Toss IMO.
  23. LakePaste25
    This event is more east-based than 1997. 1997 had convection far west in July in particular.
  24. LakePaste25
    The MJO isn’t “avoiding” the IO/MC, it’s being suppressed by the descending branch of the hadley cell triggered by the Nino standing wave whenever it enters that region. If you use VP and OLR plots you can still see the MJO pass thru those regions in a very suppressed state. On the RMM plot, El Niño is overwhelming the signal.
  25. LakePaste25
    They tend to be pretty accurate with the big picture, as the MJO orbit is very predictable. Minor details, such as exact strength of the WWB, exact day (late sept or early oct) are more TBD and this won’t accurately predict that this far out.
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