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LakePaste25

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  1. LakePaste25
    FWIW, whether it’s more like 1997-98 or 2015-16 doesn’t really change the odds of a big NE snowstorm or two between breaks of the pacific jet IMO. Just really getting into semantics here of what more closely defines a super Nino pattern in the western hemisphere.
  2. LakePaste25
    Yup, but this exact issue that Ben points out is what many of us believe contributed to the super torch of December 2015, where you had the Nino-like pac jet extension, but then systems cut in a Nina - like SE ridge. Will be interesting to see if Aigle is right, and thus the forcing is so overwhelmingly strong that we see a more broad pacific jet-southern stream connection similar to 1997 instead of 2015.
  3. LakePaste25
    As Ben is pointing out, we could be dealing with some convection further west than the typical super Nino configuration due to warm waters extending further west. Makes sense to me unless we can get some actual cool SSTAs in the west pac. Same theme we’ve been dealing with where it may cause split forcing or alter the standing wave forcing to some degree.
  4. LakePaste25
    Many of us like to look at global temperatures because it helps us understand expectations for the upcoming winter. If there’s far more warm anomalies than cold anomalies, it means our chances of landing on one of the cold anomalies is lower before you even factor in any favorable or unfavorable indices. Like playing a game of minesweeper and you’re adding more mines.
  5. LakePaste25
    Your chart actually shows the flaws of MEI quite well. It’s only looking for one type/configuration of Nino. You can see how it significantly lagged the 2023-2024 Nino because of this. It may very well be true that the MEI will rate higher this time due to the +PMM, but you still have the -PDO working against it.
  6. LakePaste25
    beware of using the MEI. During Super Nino events, it tends to be a weenie index and is biased towards central pacific events. RONI vs. ONI are the bread and butter for this IMO.
  7. LakePaste25
    Not a huge lag between ONI and RONI at the moment (roughly 0.3C):
  8. LakePaste25
    The reason many of the big mets on twitter are going with super and east based is because most Ninos that have started out the way this one is starting out have gone that way, so they’re not just doing it because they have some inherent warm bias - they have data to back it up. But the thing about meteorology (and the broader sciences) is that past data is only right until otherwise proven wrong.
  9. LakePaste25
    This is where I’m at as well. Until I see a more supportive evidence in the SSTA/MJO/WWB evolution that supports a CANSIPS-like outcome, I’m taking it with a grain of salt. Modelology vs. Meteorology.
  10. LakePaste25
    Even if a 97-98 SSTA replica was on the way, I would still predict a pacific jet dominated winter with potential for 1-2 big coastal or SE snowstorms later in the winter. These are individual big ticket events that cannot be predicted months, or even several weeks in advance.
  11. LakePaste25
    I think when you look at December 2015 alone, it was an anomalous configuration for a super Nino. The lack of a strong southern stream in the SE US allowed storms to cut, so you had both this bad combo of a pac jet extension to the west coast combined with a Nina-like SE ridge configuration. Compare this to December 1997 where you have a strong southern stream extending all the way across the southern US, which is the more canonical Nino outcome. Just giving 1 example of how we can do better than 15-16.
  12. LakePaste25
    If it is not going to snow in December then I hope we get a December 2015 type outcome so I can enjoy the nice weather outdoors. December 2023 was not ideal, because it was still hostile for snow but it was in the 30s most days.
  13. LakePaste25
    All super ninos have featured below normal snowfall here - a 15-16 outcome vs 97-98 doesn’t make a difference for me as they both had roughly 60-80” on the season. There will always be brief cold shots on the backside of winter and sometimes even very short ones in december if we’re lucky, although december is typically the most hostile.
  14. LakePaste25
    Yeah. I fully believe mostly warm temps and strong or super. I see the difference between basin wide vs EP as “do we get a couple of more cold intrusions on the back side of winter to try to get something to phase with that supercharged southern stream, or is it extremely limited like 97-98?” It’s really not a question that can answered by even the most skilled mets this early on IMO.
  15. LakePaste25
    Yup. 15-16 is a good example of a super that starts out east-based before going basin wide approaching winter.
  16. LakePaste25
    Seriously, can we get out of the stone age and allow “x” links so we don’t need to change them to twitter for them to embed? I know this is possible because there are other invision forums that have updated to allow this.
  17. LakePaste25
    Anyone have any summer analogs for this (el nino standing wave competing with e atlantic/african standing wave)?
  18. LakePaste25
    Can really see how things start to diverge in terms of position of the warmest SSTa’s after December. With Nino 1+2 warmth (east-based), Jan and Feb are also warm. With Nino 3.4, the correlation starts to break in Feb. With Nino 4 (central to west pacific), it actually correlated to a cold Feb. So while December is universally expected to be mild regardless, whether we get a backloaded winter or near wall to wall torch is based on whether the anomalies are focused on the Eastern Pacific vs Central.
  19. LakePaste25
    CANSIPs shows lingering nina-like convection in the maritime continent, while the CFS shows a classic nino response that slowly propagates eastward into winter.
  20. LakePaste25
    Incredible how different the Jan 2016 cold shots were vs. the Jan 2024. Jan 2024 was much more Nina-like, and probably why there wasn’t a big snowstorm in the mid atlantic or NE. They both had the roaring southern stream like you’d expect for a Nino but mismatched at 500 mb heights.
  21. LakePaste25
    Interesting. 1972 was one of the coolest summers on record here.
  22. LakePaste25
    I imagine summer in the east will be on the milder, wetter, and more humid side
  23. LakePaste25
    I see it has some split forcing showing up with some lingering convection in the west pacific. Also appears to be more basin-wide. I agree - i think a +TNH outcome like that is probably overkill even if there’s split forcing.
  24. LakePaste25
    Correct, nothing publicly available as far as I know
  25. LakePaste25
    The new Conventional Observation Reanalysis that’s supposed to replace it only has the raw data available (https://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/core/) which is annoying since I haven’t found any custom built code that plots it yet
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