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LakePaste25

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Everything posted by LakePaste25

  1. LakePaste25
    Is it not reasonable to go warm in the GL/NE for a super Nino? That’s common knowledge. It will be above normal in the mean. Sure we can discuss how it might not be an all out torch (and I think it can be prevented given that we might shut down MC convection), but above normal is an easy call.
  2. LakePaste25
    Yeah other than that 2 week stretch in late January/early February the cold wasn’t really that impressive. Same with 2024-25. Just normal cold that we used to get much more frequently. The snow was decent though.
  3. LakePaste25
    I know NMME has an amplitude bias with ENSO but still…even if it were a half a degree cooler, that is still crazy.
  4. LakePaste25
    agreed. We can only predict the aspects of El Niño that I like (such as the strong STJ), not the things I don’t like (the warmth). The warmth we will just have to wait and see.
  5. LakePaste25
    Latest NMME mean
  6. LakePaste25
    I would expect lingering Nino 1+2 warmth well into next spring and summer. If I remember correctly, when 1+2 fails to cool down like that we usually get a weaker Nina rebound or just stay cold neutral. Would have to look more into the data.
  7. LakePaste25
    Is there anything at this point between now and October that could stop this from becoming the Wilma of El Nino events? Seems like it’s becoming so well coupled in the tropics that that there really isn’t.
  8. LakePaste25
    snowman got too worked up over these people and let them get to him. It’s more fun to talk about warm anomalies and trigger them. Gotta roll with it. And the cool thing about it is we get brand new maps with red everywhere every other month, so I am constantly supplied with new material.
  9. LakePaste25
    I’m actually not dismissing them anymore. I dismissed the CANSIPs early on because it derived the colder look from Modoki SSTAs in the tropical pacific, and Modoki isn’t happening so I tossed it. But the Euro looks better now *despite being even stronger and more east based*, so now we have to wonder if the a strongly suppressed cell over the W Pacific (due to extreme E based nature) will help. It makes sense to me in theory.
  10. LakePaste25
    I can also see that it went warmer in Alaska/PNW. So, whenever the jet does retract, it could be modeling periods of -EPO/+TNH rather than an MC forcing induced Aleutian ridge. Notice that 850 Aleutian low actually got colder/stronger, not weaker as well. So it could just be forecasting more “all flavors of ENSO” rather than “La Niña like interferences.”
  11. LakePaste25
    I don’t deny that it could verify warmer than what the Euro is showing. The Aleutian Low/SE trough are not as cold in those areas as pre-2000s Ninos, I get it. The point I’m making is due to the fact that it’s record breaking, the odds of seeing a Jan 2024 type pattern (arctic cold dumping from the NW US, a parade of Great Lakes cutters) and Dec 2015 (more cutters) are lower, because if any Nino event is going to shut down the forcing that caused these to happen, it will be this one.
  12. LakePaste25
    Makes sense to me. A stronger Nino would theoretically result in a stronger correlation to the canonical pattern that goes with it. That 23-24 map looks like it was showing warmer in both the W and SE compared to now which makes sense.
  13. LakePaste25
    While I may not agree with the Euro verbatim, it’s a perfect example of how a stronger Nino doesn’t always mean warmer. The August update increased the strength but went cooler.
  14. LakePaste25
    I wouldn’t dare predict a snowless winter. There’s no data to back that up. But I would place heavy bets on +3 or higher in terms of temp departures in the mean, locally.
  15. LakePaste25
    I will place a heavy bet that Nino 1+2 will once again, not cool off as we head into next spring. This is why I don’t yet think we swing back to a major La Niña. Cold neutral is once again on the table next year.
  16. LakePaste25
    I keep circling back to the PMM. 2023-24 was a rare -PMM El Niño. Right now it’s positive. In the summer, -PMM constructively interferes with El Nino, while it destructively interferes during the winter. +PMM is the opposite (Nina like summer, but Nino like winter). Unfortunately we don’t have current PMM values but eyeballing SSTAs show it in the positive state, which implies more Nino-friendly interference as we head towards winter.
  17. LakePaste25
    My thing is, if the most record breaking El Niño of my life (and potentially by a huge margin) doesn’t do the job, then the climate system has been messed up to the point where we’ve lost a major predictability factor in ENSO. It’s possible. But I hope not.
  18. LakePaste25
    I get the reluctance for some to take a “wait and see” approach to see if the NH actually couples. But at the same time, just make a call. I think it’ll couple, and couple well. Sure, we can count on a less expansive area of below normal anomalies than the 1983 Aleutian Low due to warming. It is what it is. But otherwise it’ll couple in the NH and if i’m wrong i’m wrong.
  19. LakePaste25
    This is like me saying you don’t agree it’s east based because you don’t like using the ELI. I simply didn’t like how the MEI was a limited dataset nor did I need to wait for this monthly updated to figure out it was coupled.
  20. LakePaste25
    We can agree to disagree. SOI, VP anomalies, and OLR anomalies will also tell me if it’s coupled and I much prefer using those. I’m just not a fan of using it.
  21. LakePaste25
    That was me who was dismissing the MEI awhile ago and you still don’t see me posting about it. Just not a fan of it. It’s equally weighting all variables, only uses one dataset (JRA-55), and like ensonerd mentioned it’s limited to the first EOF. I felt like it made the 2023-24 event weaker than it was even compared to the RONI, thanks to the rare -PMM that went with it.
  22. LakePaste25
    Yes. -PDO is not the cause, it’s an effect of the pattern.
  23. LakePaste25
    How is 55 degree water “overriding El Niño”? I’m sorry I just don’t buy that
  24. LakePaste25
    For the NH at least, it appears to be a better fit for +PMM, which is an actual pattern driver much more so than the PDO.
  25. LakePaste25
    Not exactly strong correlations to begin with in the NH, with the exception of the low southwest of the Aleutian’s that appears to be displaced about 60 degrees east.
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