LakePaste25
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Everything posted by LakePaste25
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May be lingering effects, but it’s safe to say that La niña is done for.
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What??
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All 2m temp forecasts are the same though. It’s just how the anomalies are interpreted. Would agree that EPS are running slightly cold of GEFS/GEPS suites.
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Happy to dig deeper into this. I always thought actual 2m temps were universal vs. the differing anomaly datasets.
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Who said there was going to be a torch in Feb? Seems like a straw man.
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I believe the ECMWF native site is still using 1981-2010 climate normals, while the wxbell site is using the warmer 1991-2020 normals. The actual 2m temps should be the same, but the newer 1991-2020 normals will appear colder because the baseline is warmer, which is what we should expect in a warmer climate. Raw 2m temps are produced by the models themselves. It’s up to what dataset you want to use for the anomalies.
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I highlighted a colder risk for the last third of february this morning and gave reasons…low-medium confidence for now. I’m also a little too regionally biased/focused with this because even if the blocking pattern breaks down and a cutter pattern develops, i tend to be in a better spot being 300-400 miles west of I-95 in the eastern great lakes.
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More serviceable after mid month due to it flipping from a -WPO induced -PNA rather than a +WPO jet extension induced -PNA. Restores true cold into Canada. It won’t be like December where the -WPO alone will be enough due to shorter wavelengths, but if other factors align such as better angle of -PNA troughing and atlantic/arctic blocking, then it’s absolutely a decent pattern to work with for the northern tier. It’s why i put the last third of Feb as colder risks, but more TBD.
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If I were to break Feb roughly into thirds, this is how I would lay it out: First third (1-10th): Very cold/well below normal Second third: (11-20th): Milder risks, but not well above normal. -PNA Third (21-28th): Potentially return to colder than normal with established -WPO + blocking (this period more TBD). Not nearly as cold as the first third. Still -PNA
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Feb 2020 had above average snowfall here (24.9”, Feb average is 20”). The worst Feb here was 2024 (strong nino), which featured a paltry 0.8”
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I do think an ENSO Feb mismatch in the NE is plausible when it comes to the surface temps vs. H5. Nina-like aloft at 500mb, but Nino-like below normal surface temps.
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I haven’t seen any +PNA Feb predictions on twitter, even from BAM. Seeing a ton of “look, it’s not a torch posts” which is weird because I also can’t find any reputable post that predicted a torch.
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Feb Nina -PNA is serviceable here. Averages around 50% of normal (10”). Would say that weak-warm +ENSO Feb performs the best here, however. Such as in 2020, 2019, 2015, 2007.
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Not a bad thing if we can keep the PNA aligned with the mountain west rather than west coast, and get some blocking. If it’s snowing at the space needle, then it’s probably more lights out.
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Probably not in Feb, but I could see it happening sometime in March.
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Need to get this area to move East for less of a -PNA IMO. Wavelengths are too short in Feb for convection to be hugging this area.
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just need to get through that brief poleward jet extension which basically scours out the TPV from central and eastern canada, then we have a better cold air source for storms setting up across the Great Lakes later in the month as the aleutian ridge builds
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Trough axis is simply not going to work even with the blocking outside of maybe NNE. Bring that trough further west, we can get systems dropping down from the NW. Or bring it east and we can get overrunning events W to E. But with this position, storms will cut.
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2/10-2/18 look fairly hostile for cold and snow in the northeast south of NNE unless we can see some improvements in the pacific as we get closer. The blocking will prevent a “torch.”
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Disagree with this being the mean pattern. I think it’ll average out to a -PNA. That being said, it may not be an overwhelmingly negative PNA. -AO blocking to start out, and potential -EPO reloading the second half of the month should mitigate this. Not seeing a Feb 2018/2023/2024 style torch.
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The deep cold and persistent snowpack has been nice, but I also wouldn’t mind getting back in on the action here on the I-90 great lakes corridor. We’ll see how it goes.
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Yeah that’s why I’m thinking we still regress to a -PNA, but not as severe as 2023. The blocking will also help if it persists.
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The Nina is still there. But this indo-pacific warm pool analysis is intriguing to me. Compared to this time in 2023, the warm pool is expanded much further east. Not quite Feb 2015 levels, but it’s close. If we do regress back to a -PNA, I could see the cold dumping into the mountain west or the high plains. I don’t think it’ll be as far west as 2023. If you factor in the blocking that keeps showing up, it might make things interesting.
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The low temperature this morning at ERI dropped down to -7. This is the coldest temperature recorded since February 2015.
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Erie is at around 50” on the season and the lake is about to freeze. Which means at the airport, we need another 50” to hit average and we’re relying purely on synoptic. That’s a very tough ask. 13-14 was above the 105” average and even last year was.
