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LakePaste25

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Everything posted by LakePaste25

  1. LakePaste25
    Yeah, there is still a 30C isotherm west of Nino 4. So it could spike again sometime between now and in the Fall before we actually start to see some real replacement upwelling in the W pac. This Nino has ways to go before it peaks. I also think some models that show 3.4 peaking in November are peaking it too early.
  2. LakePaste25
    This is what I was referring to. If this is how someone makes their seasonal forecast, you should immediately unsubscribe from them.
  3. LakePaste25
    They think ENSO is just some sliding scale where the warmest ENSO = no snow and less warm ENSO = more snow and anything that counters “warmest ENSO” means more snow. It’s not true, it’s much more nuanced as it has been discussed plenty of times in this very thread.
  4. LakePaste25
    I was asking about the contours in the rossby wave source map. Assuming those are 200mb ridges and troughs (with the opposite sign).
  5. LakePaste25
    Do you know what the solid red contours and the dashed blue contours mean? Trying to learn this.
  6. LakePaste25
    We will see. I’ll hold off until September because that’s when I would expect to start seeing some semblance of an Aleutian low.
  7. LakePaste25
    CFS has a nice “back loaded idea” with the Canadian block becoming a -NAO later in the season. Take it with a grain of salt. IF (big if) you’re going to get anything out of this season, this would be the way to do it.
  8. LakePaste25
    Looking at past OLR, it looks closest to 1997…maybe a tad west. It does have that broad convective signature across the basin.
  9. LakePaste25
    Yeah, I mean some of this is just noise from TCs. W pac basin was also active in 1997. Just not ready to blame it on this because nearly the entire N PAC basin has seen above normal heights outside the subtropics. We will see. I really want to see where we are at by September. It does seem TCs out there are forming a bit west of 1997.
  10. LakePaste25
    I must be missing something because I don’t see a ton of MC competition. I agree the N Pac is not exhibiting your typical response but I think it could be due to something else.
  11. LakePaste25
    The North Pacific is indeed the last quadrant to respond (possibly due to the arctic) but I think it wakes up to El Niño in due time. It is responding well everywhere else in the world (including the raging jet in the Southern Pacific).
  12. LakePaste25
    This is the strong atmospheric coupling with El Niño being reflected in the RMM’s. You might get the occasional weak pulse that crosses the IO which would bring it into the COD from time to time on the mean before looping back around into 7-8-1. That’s basically what is about to happen:
  13. LakePaste25
    Should see that -PDO continue to weaken into the Fall as the CTKW’s move north along the west coast and the upwelling from the california current weakens as the N Pac high begins to take a beating.
  14. LakePaste25
    Important to note though, those mid atlantic blizzards happened because you were able to get PV lobes dropping south from the Hudson’s and phasing. Even if this did not show up in the post season mean. One of the issues during super Ninos you tend to get too much warm air/ridge bridging in Canada for these PV lobes to really set up to begin with.
  15. LakePaste25
    This is true, but tropical convection isn’t decided by absolute SSTs alone. It’s relative to global mean tropical SSTs. Assuming the negative SSTAs materialize in the W pacific, the gradient between the negative SSTAs and the 30C waters shifted east of the dateline is what matters. You can’t really use 2016 or 2024 as an analog for this because such a gradient did not exist, and thus the convection was still present well west of the dateline. If the CFS does not materialize, and the W pac SSTAs are not below normal or closer to normal, then there’s a stronger argument for more persistent convection well west of the Dateline.
  16. LakePaste25
    The CFS is starting to catch on to the idea of this event running its course (just like 97-98) with W pac cool anomalies showing up. This would be the first time in over a decade that we’ve seen this to a significant degree.
  17. LakePaste25
    I don’t think anyone here is saying it’s not going to snow, or that there won’t necessarily be a big storm. But I think it’s an easy call that next winter will be both warmer and wetter than the previous 2 winters on the coastal plain. Here on the Great Lakes, probably warmer and drier.
  18. LakePaste25
    Preliminarily, I think this event lands between +3.2 to +3.7 on the RONI. I will adjust accordingly as we get closer to October.
  19. LakePaste25
    Not to mention, -PDO usually works against cold and snow. Funny that it’s magically now something that we want lmao.
  20. LakePaste25
    Yeah, the cooling W pac kicking off trades and loss of equatorial ocean heat to the atmosphere always argues for this whenever we go super nino IMO.
  21. LakePaste25
    Yes, but they’re likely to be more correct this year, since the event will be so strong that it overwhelms all other competing signals. Broken clock rule.
  22. LakePaste25
  23. LakePaste25
    Can’t wait to pull the ERA-5 data next month on the Southern Pacific low for July. Could be the deepest we’ve seen it (relatively) in awhile.
  24. LakePaste25
    Important to note that this El Niño event will remove a lot of heat from the oceans (and into the atmosphere) if it materializes as record-breaking. This is one of the reasons why El Nino doesn’t preclude a strong La Niña, and ENSO itself acts more like a damped nonlinear recharge oscillator.
  25. LakePaste25
    Seems counterintuitive because wouldn’t heat being released in the tropics combined with a cold arctic strengthen the N Pacific low due to a greater contrast?
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