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LakePaste25

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Everything posted by LakePaste25

  1. LakePaste25
    That’s a good question. A warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor (exponentially) but i’d think it also takes more to actually wring it out. The warmer SSTs certainly help with that. Intuitively i think the “magic number” would have to go up as it warms.
  2. LakePaste25
    This is all true but in theory, if you get much warmer SSTs to the east, it can generate conditions suppress convection to the west regardless if the SSTs to the west are “warm enough” for convection. It likely just takes stronger +ENSO conditions than before to achieve. I’m increasingly convinced we will actually achieve this (suppressed MC) with this event.
  3. LakePaste25
  4. LakePaste25
    I do think RONI matters here when you’re looking at how the W pacific SSTS can destructively interfere with things. Mostly because warm SSTAs everywhere also raise the “floor” of 500 mb GPH, so a negative relative anomaly in the W pac is probably sufficient in preventing the W pac from contributing to a rossby wave response (floor is high enough it’s not a ridge relative to GPH). Hope I’m making any sense when I theorize this. tldr: W pac is already becoming negative in relative terms which i think is “good enough” since height anomalies are also relative in terms of rossby waves.
  5. LakePaste25
    Healthy +ENSO coupled mid-latitude cell showing up in the central pacific on the GEFS. W pac forcing starting to diminish.
  6. LakePaste25
    it’s why i always laugh when I see agencies such as AccuWeather or twitter accounts deterministically forecast seasonal snow totals in ENSO years like this. Above normal temps in the northeast and great lakes that fade towards neutral as you go south is a sure bet, but nobody can predict whether places like DCA will get a single storm that produces 150% of their seasonal totals.
  7. LakePaste25
    This morning it was in the 50s and was raining. Much more typical of what I’d expect for a pre-super Nino summer around here as 1972, 1982, and 1997 had a handful of these days in June and July.
  8. LakePaste25
    It goes both ways. When some of us throw 97-98 into the mix, we aren’t saying the snow totals will repeat verbatim. Some of this is just random variability. 97-98 came extremely close to a producing KU’s a couple of times and could actually produce one if the general pattern repeated. So people shouldn’t freak out that their snow is being taken away when that year is mentioned.
  9. LakePaste25
    What are the top analogs for this event? Let me guess: 09-10, 14-15, 04-05, 02-03, 76-77, and 77-78
  10. LakePaste25
    Not that unusual in super Nino events. I wouldn’t expect 24/7 +AAM and it’ll probably bounce back quickly.
  11. LakePaste25
    I know @bluewave brings this up a lot, but I will forever be fascinated by the clean phase 8 pass through in January 2022. With all of the competing Nina forcing going on, I don’t know how we pulled that off especially during an actual Nina.
  12. LakePaste25
    I consider 2021-2022 to be an east-based La Niña.
  13. LakePaste25
    CRW is already at +1.2
  14. LakePaste25
    PV aside, if we can shift that warm pool east it’ll allow for some brief periods of -EPO/+TNH during jet retractions. We missed out on that during ‘23-‘24 because W pac forcing instantly reverted us to the canonical Aleutian ridge La Niña pattern whenever the jet retracted.
  15. LakePaste25
  16. LakePaste25
    So far this is preventing us from having a cooler summer. The summers of 1997, 1982, 1972 were well below normal here. We will see if this competing forcing will continue into the fall.
  17. LakePaste25
    why is snowman 5 posted? i dont see how busted warm calls are any different than metfan’s busted april snow maps. Are people that sensitive they can’t handle someone making warm forecasts?
  18. LakePaste25
    More like I want the W pac warm pool to completely shift east so we can have better synoptic snow the following winters. A mid +2c super nino that probably ends up with a warm winter anyway won’t do the job. Might as well go for the full historic, make this the sacrificial lamb and see if we can get good patterns the years after
  19. LakePaste25
    Ensembles really want to hang onto this W pac forcing too. Competing Nina influence for the foreseeable future.
  20. LakePaste25
    Hopefully CAD doesn’t ruin the Christmas torch. If its going to be mild or warm, I want BBQ and pool weather
  21. LakePaste25
    Good money if you can get it
  22. LakePaste25
    Can’t wait for the UAH spike. going to be a rough year for the deniers.
  23. LakePaste25
    Yes, most climate models have us getting more frequent el niño events in the long term. Major caveat though - it will likely take stronger events to overcome W Pac forcing/warm pool so more Ninos doesn’t necessarily translate to more Aleutian Lows 1:1.
  24. LakePaste25
    I do think we should still shy away from “recent nino events have featured a persistent W pac warm pool, so this one will too.” I think it’s a forecasting trap. Probably true that we deal with it much more frequently, but i don’t believe there’s enough evidence to suggest it’s a permanent feature. It’s very possibly we get clean canonical forcing by the fall. In fact I think we are on track to see that. It will just take stronger events such as this one to start seeing it.
  25. LakePaste25
    Yeah, same reason we differentiate between 1991-2020 normals vs absolute records. When we want to know a thermal pattern it’s helpful to use the 30 yr normals, but it doesn’t make sense to say “this heatwave is the biggest temperature departure on record” because it’s pretty arbitrary. We use absolute values for that.
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