LakePaste25

The most anomalously cold air in the entire northern hemisphere will reside in Canada, allowing the northern tier of the Eastern US to stay somewhat cool despite the -PNA.

yeah strong nino decembers can “bust cold” such as with 2009 blocking, while nina decembers can “bust warm” such as with 2021. with the new climate, the odds of course are always more favorable to go warm than cold. i don’t think this december ends up torching though, especially northern tier. i can see it going 1-2 above.

For december, one would definitely want to be north of I-80. Even here, probably still dealing with rain from time to time.

People put too much emphasis on the AO/NAO/SPV stuff. You can have a +TNH/Hudon vortex anchored in place all winter coupled with an SPV on roids. This was mostly the case in 13-14/14-15. Then again I am biased towards the great lakes, but I like seeing the indo-pacific warm pool and the -EPO pattern show up.

It is probably just picking up a weak signal from the Indo-pacific warm pool. I would be more worried about it if p8 was not propagating as a strong KW. Note the WWB associated with the P8 pass through, which is what we typically see with weakening Nina’s.

We saw this a few times last winter. Fast pac jet leads to systems undercutting the PNA ridge, causing energy to get buried in the southwest, thus, rolling over the ridge into the east.

not to be too finicky but that new run is not really a classic -nao to begin with. more of a “newfoundland block.” a true bootleg -nao like we’ve seen in recent winters would be the traditional +gph anomalies extending from greenland through the eastern seaboard

yeah it’s not guaranteed by any means. just looking for signs of changes

i would shift the mean trough axis a little further west given the stronger nina and a weaker indo-pacific warm pool this year. still a decent fit though.

poleward shift of the pac jet = an alaskan vortex as far as the eye can see. no shots of arctic or subarctic air through the next couple of weeks, probably longer. mjo does look like it wants to push out into the pacific. eyeing mid to late november for a potential equatorward shift of the pac jet which would increase chances of popping a -epo depending on where this jet exits.

a little surprised by this because it’s more of a strong-storm induced cooler airmass, not canadian-sourced arctic air

a pattern similar to last winter but with more -pna tendancies would be great. while it was fine here in the lake effect zones, there wasn’t much synoptic. i don’t think most here would complain about a more active pattern even if it brought more periods of warmth

i agree with webb’s take. i would lean strongly to a pattern similar to last winter. several peer-review studies, such as liang et al. (https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/30/22/jcli-d-17-0149.1.xml) link a strong indo-pacific warm pool to downstream western us/goa ridging, sometimes even independent of the enso state, especially if it is weak.

During the June heatwave i had clear blue skies with dew points in the 70s. it was like a more mellow Dubai climate. I loved it!

One thing I really like is that our summers are getting more humid. I really don’t like hot and dry summers, I find them boring. I love waking up at 6am and it’s almost 80 degrees out. I’d much rather have 99 with a dew point of 80 than 105 with a dew point of 60.

Now do fossil fuel subsidies. Of course we shouldn’t because that’s politics, and so is your post. This subforum is about the science behind climate change.

I’m not sure about July, but June 2025 came in cooler than the last 2 Junes. Not really surprising because as shown on the graph, warming occurs under a “staircase” model. There will always be random variability.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38348610/ I’d look into Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD). Warming temperatures and the atmosphere’s ability to hold more water isn’t a linear relationship, it’s exponential. Think of it as a bigger sponge. The sponge can hold more water, so when it does get “wrung out,” it means more extreme flooding rains. On the other hand, as it can hold more water, it can also mean that it’s easier to form drought. The Midwest has been lucky in this regard due to favorable long wave patterns.

Shades of 2011 where we see the extreme June ridge return for a second time in late July, but further west this time.

Important to note that the 2021 ridge had some local geographic factors involved in addition to just the strength. There was a major downslope east wind event coming off of the Cascade mountains due to a surface low off the coast. For our region, the equivalent would probably be a downsloping west wind event that would send central park and EWR well beyond all-time record highs.

All else aside, I prefer a warmer tropical western pacific and weak ENSO. There’s studies that show this combination alone can provide enough forcing for the pattern we saw in 13-14, 14-15, and this past winter.

NOAA makes post ad-hoc adjustments to stations when they are moved to account for difference in temperature. @chubbs can attest to this - for example, one of the warmest recording stations of the 20th century (Coatesville) was moved to a cooler, higher elevation location and adjustments were made accordingly.

I vote to keep this thread going. CC discussion (to some extent) is unavoidable when you’re talking about winter in the northeast. Only shut it down if it goes to constant back and forth arguing.

If I were to compare Dec/Jan ‘24-‘25 to Jan/Feb 2015, both patterns look similar at face value (+PNA/-EPO), but late Jan to Feb 2015 was a far snowier pattern for the northeast, with storms constantly bombing out over the benchmark. The thing that really stands out to me is that in 2015, the pacific jet was more equatorward (see that area of blue further south in the eastern pacific, area of orange in zonal wind). A more equatorward pacific jet is more favorable because it allows for more amplified ridging out west, allowing storms to dig.

The lake effect snow here and the record warm lakes earlier in the season is the only reason we did well here. Most of the clippers went north of here, which is fairly unusual in this type of +PNA/-EPO pattern. While that was cold enough for snow here, it did not allow much redevelopment east of the mountains, so the precip of these light to moderate clippers mostly fell apart by the time they reached the coastal plain. The further north track can probably be attributed to the stronger pacific jet as mentioned.