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LakePaste25

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  1. LakePaste25
    Yeah which makes sense. It lags both from warmth going bottom-up in the tropics via instability/upper level divergence and from planetary scale baroclinicity aloft, which seasonally strengthens in late NH summer and early fall as the Arctic cold pool begins to develop.
  2. LakePaste25
    The lack of H5 over the central equatorial pacific does indicate a skew towards La Niña the last 20-30 years, which could also be contributing. I don’t have the research handy, but climate models argue that more frequent La Niña will not be the case long term. Possibly a temporarily aberration the past couple of decades. We are probably due for a major decadal regression the other way. Not necessarily right now, but it could happen eventually.
  3. LakePaste25
    IMO, I think of the PDO like snow cover. If a large area has deep snow cover (or lack thereof), it can enhance (or weaken) a polar high, which can impact an individual storm track. But it can only do so much. If you have a cutter going into ORD, snow cover in new england or the mid atlantic won’t stop it from cutting. And over time, as we know, those repeated cutters will weaken the snow cover. So think of the super Nino as the pattern driving the cutters, and the -PDO as the snow cover. The super Nino will continuously override it over time with a zonal jet until it flips to +PDO. I know this is not a perfect analogy because El Niños mean less cutters literally. But you get the idea.
  4. LakePaste25
    They exist on Tropical Tidbits, but they’re smoothed 5 day means. World view.
  5. LakePaste25
    Jet extension is going full steam in the southern hemisphere winter, with copious amounts of snow in the Andes:
  6. LakePaste25
    Entire basin looks pretty favorable for development into August. Makes sense with the Hadley cell out in the central pacific. While I think the Eastern Pacific has the highest chance of above normal ACE due to the +PMM you mentioned, I think the basin as a whole has a chance to be above normal in all 3 regions.
  7. LakePaste25
    Jan/Feb look like the -WPO Nina pattern, but flipped.
  8. LakePaste25
    I mean this goes into the discussion with @40/70 Benchmark that past super Ninos were not torches for the Northeast due to “clean forcing” as in, less competing Nina-like convection in the Maritime Continent. It used to be more of a torch signal for the upper Midwest. Only modern super Ninos have been torchy in the NE.
  9. LakePaste25
    Yeah I don’t think the Hadley cell will just park at 120W all winter. Kind of like what Snowman is showing in the Hovmoller above, I can see it wobbling 30-50 degrees in the mean.
  10. LakePaste25
    It already is in South America. Chile is getting slammed in the short-medium range models.
  11. LakePaste25
    yeah there’s a solid mid latitude response happening in Chile. Nice mid latitude cell off the coast, extended pac/STJ and they’re getting blasted with rain and mountain snow. That’s what’s convincing me right now.
  12. LakePaste25
    Not ready to say it will never reverse. Maybe 10 more years of -PDO and I’ll start having those thoughts. The only thing that’s certain is the that the planet will be warmer. When it comes to everything else, weather can always feel like it’s in a permanent state until one day it isn’t anymore.
  13. LakePaste25
    I don’t know if this can be claimed with certainty yet. It’s also important not to use too much recency bias when it’s likely going to be the most powerful event on record. I’d be more skeptical if this was like 23-24. Even beyond 15-16 this event is in a league of its own. But, we will also have our own variations of winter forecasts this Fall and we can always look back on them.
  14. LakePaste25
    A lot of times, these seasonal models lean too heavily into the ENSO state. Same with the CPC seasonal outlooks. We saw that the last 2 winters with too much emphasis on the SE ridge in the East. Since this El Niño is going to be very strong to historic, I feel that the generic outlooks for the seasonal mean this winter will end up being more accurate. We will also need to see if the pacific jet strengthens this Fall and begins to reverse the -PDO.
  15. LakePaste25
  16. LakePaste25
    Definitely a lack of +U out there in the N pac. Wonder if this changes in the Fall.
  17. LakePaste25
    The big question is, does the +ENSO signal become so strong by winter that its forcing overwhelms it in the seasonal mean? Do we start to see the -PDO finally reverse?
  18. LakePaste25
    Hadley cell expansion is actually increasing the size and latitude (poleward) of subtropical ridging. Not *every ridge* but subtropical ridges. https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/20/5249/2020/index.html But to your point, that’s also true that baseline GPH goes up as well. That’s why whenever I look at past years, I use the climate period that fits that year whenever possible. For example: 1972 -> use 1961-1990 1982 -> use 1971-2000 etc otherwise it’s difficult to pick out a signal when these past years have too much troughing using the much warmer 1991-2020 baseline. Unfortunately the tools that use the correct climate period are not always available.
  19. LakePaste25
  20. LakePaste25
    The stronger ridges and weaker troughs are likely playing a huge role. If you look at SLP, it’s less muted. However, still some subtle differences between the events.
  21. LakePaste25
    that low west of the aleutians is something to watch since it actually has a meaningful correlation with less noise.
  22. LakePaste25
    Yes. Every indicator points to it. I’m not really too concerned with a summertime 500 mb dataset that has a sample size of 4. Much of the cool summer Ninos were derived from -NAO which is less correlated.
  23. LakePaste25
    July should be our first “fully coupled” month. Come August, will need to find a site that plots omega since NCAR is discontinued. Would like to compare it to past super nino July’s.
  24. LakePaste25
    Yeah…if you look at 2016, the convection is very far west. Should be east of that IMO although we will really put that theory to the test if it’s “not cool enough” to stop convection there.
  25. LakePaste25
    I’m leaning towards a more canonical super Nino response than 15-16, but not quite to the level of 97-98.
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