LakePaste25

A prominent climate change denial account is using the historic winter storm in GA to downplay the effects or impact of climate change. Winters at ATL have been rapidly warming:

Sure it will get cold, but storms can cut with a -EPO if there’s no +PNA. Remember that historic blizzard in Buffalo in December 2022? That started with a huge cutter and -EPO. For the coast, it was a cutter followed by cold and dry.

I still recorded 10”+ of snow here in february 2018, but the latter part of the month was a torch here. I had 2 days over 70, which is over a +30 departure.

Ensembles are split post-MLK day. The GEFS continues with a full eastern trough, while the EPS and GEPS have more of an overrunning setup that favors the interior, potentially with snow/sleet/ice profiles.

I think going forward, the main question is what type of SE ridge pattern we see in Feb. Do we see an amplified SE ridge torch like we saw in Feb 2018, or do we see a more muted, -EPO driven SE ridge with a gradient pattern such as Feb 2022? I am obviously rooting for the latter as it is better for snow chances here.

Although persistent, the cold pattern that began the New Year has not been that impressive for the northeast. The cold temperature anomalies have been more impressive further west in the plains and in the deep south. Persistent cloudy conditions north of the turnpike has kept a lid on temperature departures, even resulting in the min temps being above normal.

If we can maintain some Baja ridging, we can hope for a more February 2014 look, as opposed to recent february’s.

That 12z euro run spelled trouble for good snow storm chances as it buries vort after vort in the southwest. It is probably the more extreme scenario, however.

Yep, this is progressing as expected. Hopefully the -PNA doesn’t dig to Baja and we get some blocking.

They might just be referring to a sudden weakening of the PV. For an official SSW, these winds need to drop below 0 m/s which only has a few ensemble members doing so near the end of January into February.

It is indeed too early for this to start showing up on the medium range ensembles. The MJO progression and La Niña strengthening all allude to the traditional Nina February climo taking hold between after mid-month and early February. But as discussed yesterday, it’s not a sole predictor. Wildcards are there, such as the SPV. For now, I would simply lean towards this progression.

Not in Buffalo but i live near Erie. We don’t really have “pure” wall to wall winters. 13-14/14-15 had some brief warmups in the 40s. I think 76-77 came close but even had a day or two of 50+ in December. We are quite prone to rapid warmups here west of the mtns. But, during our good, below normal temp winters will usually have snow on the ground all winter if not most of it, and the brief warmup periods will glaciate the snowpack before we cool down again and add more. For true wall to wall pure winters that don’t get above the 40s, you’d probably want to be somewhere like Caribou, International Falls, or Fairbanks. But even Caribou has been getting these brief warmups lately and even had a green Christmas last year.

Same theme as January 2011. The GOA ridge plus the blocking is good enough to do the job. It is when the pacific blocking is back towards the Aleutians, the atlantic and AO blocking might not save the pattern (bootleg SE ridge).

I believe late January 2021 had an SSW, which lead to less of a traditional Nina signal and likely saved Feb.

Yep, that february ‘11 outcome is not just a possibility, but probably leans more likely than not barring any serious SPV warming. But most won’t care if they can score a big storm or two in January to hit average. Just like how a winter with a decent amount of cold, but with low snow might get rated poorly.

You can still get an Aleutian ridge with a -WPO. That’s exactly what the weeklies show starting right after MLK weekend.

The change is still well over 300 hours away. It is too far out to really discern what the trough axis will be and where the frozen precip. will be most favored.

I guess I should clarify - I am not saying it will be a snowy pattern for I-95 the first half of January. My call is that it will be cold. I’m not really able to discern whether it will be snowy, partly because I don’t live there and also, some of these events are tough to predict at medium range timescale. That said, I do think there is a risk of -PNA mid to late month. I’ve been saying that for a few days now. Whether that is a -PNA that digs to San Diego and we see a full SE ridge torch or it is more mellow, that remains to be seen at this point. I will cross that bridge when we get closer in time.

To me, that looks like a storm system from the GOA low breaks off as the block tries to retrograde westward. With blocking over the top, I don’t see cutting with that look verbatim as it traverses through the plains. Now, if that look changes and energy gets buried in the southwest, then no block will stop that from cutting. We did this see frequently in 22-23.

While it does delay the cold and prolong the jet extension against other guidance, it isn’t really showing any canonical -PNA Nina pattern.

No indication that we are returning to a -PNA prior to mid-January. Everything looks on track to turn colder to start the New Year.

Part of this is due to a combination of bad luck and lack of prolonged cold. If we get a cold shot that only lasts 1 week, one needs to get lucky on the coast. If we get cold that lasts 3-4 weeks, the coast is more likely to score simply by probability laws. Take January 2022, for example. The 1 week cold shots work better here near the lakes because we don’t need the atlantic or the gulf, we just need a northern stream trough over warm lake waters.

A trough axis centered more west isn’t terrible for I-95 snow threats. The late november to early december pattern of clippers dropping into Michigan and the ridge axis over BC produced plenty of lake snow here, but it was too far east to produce anything appreciable for the I-95 corridor.

January looks on track to start cold, at least shortly after the New Year due to a pacific jet retraction to a more favorable wave breaking/exit position. The question then becomes, how long does this last? Some guidance retracts the jet further to the more traditional -PNA/SE ridge by mid-January, while others hold off until the end of the month. I am going with a blend, with the cold lasting until the 4th week of january. By early February the latest, we will see a return to the full SE ridge Nina pattern.