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LakePaste25

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  1. LakePaste25
    TBH i’m not really thrilled on how mild it’ll be but I also like extremes, and this will be the most extreme El Niño on record, which fascinates me. Plus I think the +QBO could really reinforce it. It should be interesting
  2. LakePaste25
    Those late phasers are always solid here for NW flow up the hills. 97-98 was pretty decent here. When they phase early as full coastal blizzards, I tend to do worse because they usher in polar high pressure too quickly. Happened a lot in years like 09-10. I don’t expect even 97-98 again considering how much it’s warmed since then but I’ll take an active coastal track regardless if most are rainstorms. Also looking forward to watching SVR outbreaks down south.
  3. LakePaste25
    I’m thinking weak to moderate positive (+.5 to +1.5) peak before it dips negative later next summer and probably doesn’t flip back to long term positive until the 2030s.
  4. LakePaste25
    I can’t get over how CFS is just absolutely bonkers with how extremely east based it models the Nino. Convection/Hadley cell is so far east that the SE canada/NE US ridge backdoors itself into a -NAO. Likely overdoing it and we probably see something east of CANSIPs but west of the CFS, but it’s interesting to see the patterns that it is spitting out. Very possible this ends up being the most east-based El Niño in observed history.
  5. LakePaste25
    To be fair, the ONI is actually being punished here because of how fast the W Pacific has been warming. So for the purposes of trying to determine the extent of suppressed convection in the MC/W Pac and enhanced convection near the dateline into the E pac, RONI seems to be useful here
  6. LakePaste25
    PDO correlation +PDO = more troughing in the east. 97-98 would’ve been an extreme torch without the +PDO.
  7. LakePaste25
    It interferes by *weakening* the SE trough and making it *even warmer* meanwhile a 97-98 type pattern increases the chances of a big snowstorm via the active southern stream. That winter came very close to multiple KUs that barely missed the cold air phase. 82-83/15-16 produced one and had +PDOs as well. In my several years of tracking weather it has always been preferable to have a +PDO and is backed up by evidence. “-PDO means less el niño so it’s snowier” is such a wrong way to view it. You *always* want a +PDO in the East, and hopefully it flips and we get that!
  8. LakePaste25
    1972-1973 is the only super Nino analog we have of the -PDO not flipping into winter. However, the RONI peaked at +2.3 and we are potentially going much higher than that this time around, so it could be such an overwhelming force that it flips to +
  9. LakePaste25
    Are there really weenies out there that think a -PDO will “counteract El Niño and make it colder and snowier?” That is such a baseless take. -PDO interferes in a way that makes it warmer, not colder. You WANT it to flip +PDO. I think the sad part is, some of these accounts know this but they’re lying and giving out doses of hopium to the less informed weenies just for money.
  10. LakePaste25
  11. LakePaste25
    97-98 was not half bad for the Great Lakes/SNE if i remember correctly. December ‘97 was decent here while it was a total shutout in 2015.
  12. LakePaste25
    CANSIPS now getting close to a +4C ONI peak…
  13. LakePaste25
    Part of this is because these ensembles are not very good at spotting troughs in the summer. They tend to over smooth. I think the N Pac will begin to organize by late August/early September.
  14. LakePaste25
    I think he’s referring to the GLAAM. Nonetheless, I’m sure I’ll wake up to another 10 posts here tomorrow about how it’s 5 degrees in longitude off from some height anomaly map from a century ago so it’s not el niño.
  15. LakePaste25
    N Pac finally waking up to El Niño? This is what you’d expect in the warm season (weak Aleutian Low that slowly deepens).
  16. LakePaste25
    Hope so, if it’s not going to snow then i want BBQ and shorts weather for the holiday
  17. LakePaste25
    La Niña or cold neutral is likely after any super Nino because the cold waters in the W pac propagate eastward/promote trades, and a lot of the ocean heat in the tropics is released into the atmosphere.
  18. LakePaste25
    Unironically, a fully coupled Nino could bring better KU chances than a half assed Nino like 23-24, which had a ton of forcing in the Maritime Continent. I’d absolutely gamble with a 97-98 type setup. Sure there will be a ton of demoralizing rainstorms with the perfect track, but all you need is 1 to phase with cold air.
  19. LakePaste25
    If it’s anything like 97-98 there will be a lot of coastal storms that are mostly rain.
  20. LakePaste25
    My early thoughts is we see a predominately bootleg +PNA/extended pac jet state in the mean that will occasionally retrograde to a -EPO/+TNH for brief periods. Still need to see where the Hadley cell will set up though.
  21. LakePaste25
    I don’t think it’s a cop out. If it statistically argues so (which is absolutely does for the mid Atlantic) there’s no reason to pretend that it doesn’t.
  22. LakePaste25
    I’d put the mid atlantic under “equal chances” IMO. Super Ninos are usually hit or miss there, dependent on 1 storm. It’s close to 50% likelihood given the sample size.
  23. LakePaste25
    CFS does have a 1983/1998 look to it, where we get - anomalies to the dateline. I don’t worry too much about Nino 1+2 or even much of Nino 3. What matters most to me is how far east we see suppressed convection. You’re pretty much never going to see heavy convection near 1+2 anyway.
  24. LakePaste25
    Yeah I’m feeling optimistic we can at least get to a point where convection shuts down in the MC, but still have work to do for getting suppression to the dateline. The interesting thing here is that 1983 and 1998 produced nearly identical results in OLR for the back half of winter but have different outcomes in the Eastern US. Goes to my original point I made awhile ago that KU events are a huge part “luck” and not to look too much into the exact placement of warm SSTAs for this. 1998 was close to one multiple times.
  25. LakePaste25
    I think the -PDO stays solidly negative until the early Fall when the pacific jet starts to climatologically strengthen for the season. At that point it will open the door for disruptions to it. The warming waters off the Western US does work against the -PDO but it’s obviously just one component of it.
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