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brooklynwx99

Meteorologist
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About brooklynwx99

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KJFK
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    Male
  • Location:
    Bay Ridge, Brooklyn / Morristown, NJ

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  1. we aren't going to see a -PNA of that magnitude for that long for a long time. that was a record breaking semi-permanent Aleutian ridge we're going to see a -PNA spell to start December, but it should be transitionary rather than anything like that
  2. if we do end up getting a Modoki Nino, which seems more likely, then there would be lots of blocking, especially late
  3. this is what the pattern evolves to. it's pretty loaded for everyone
  4. we're also going to see very strong high pressure move into Mongolia over the next 5-7 days, leading to a +EAMT that will extend the Pacific jet and lead to the anomalous -EPO that's showing up on modeling... so I think that's for real the blocking is a bit more nebulous, but with all the Scandinavian ridging I think that there's a better chance than not of a -NAO after the first week of December
  5. we're also going to see very strong high pressure move into Mongolia over the next 5-7 days, leading to a +EAMT that will extend the Pacific jet and lead to the anomalous -EPO that's showing up on modeling... so I think that's for real the blocking is a bit more nebulous, but with all the Scandinavian ridging I think that there's a better chance than not of a -NAO after the first week of December
  6. this is a really nice evolution with the Scandinavian ridging retrograding into Greenland. that's a signal for a legit block, and they like to leak farther W too
  7. @ORH_wxman look at the Scandi ridging retrograde towards Greenland... that's a legit signal for a potent -NAO. those like to tuck westward too
  8. no way to know. just have to see i’m leaning towards the EPS since it’s been more consistent, but who knows
  9. it’s ridiculous. i’m not sure how a huge feature like that is completely different between ensembles at this range
  10. the EPS and GEFS are completely different in how they handle the PV lobe in SE Canada the EPS is similar to the better runs where it acts as a 50/50, while the GEFS leaves it much farther NW and torches everyone now we just need to see which is correct! could go either way. this is a very touchy setup
  11. I know it’s still day 6, but this is a really significant difference in the entire NA pattern the GEFS would be a total wash while the EPS still has the confluent flow in SE Canada now we just have to see which is correct
  12. yeah, the EPS looks quite similar. the 18z GFS looks like a blip as of now
  13. EPS is relatively unchanged from 12z so i’m inclined to believe the GEFS is on crack the 50/50 is a tad weaker but the C Canada ridging is a tad stronger so it seems like a wash
  14. super interesting pattern evolution upcoming and snowman is finding tweets from teenagers that talk about factors that may lead to a warm pattern in the E US love to see it
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