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About brooklynwx99

  • Birthday 06/18/1999

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    Morristown, NJ

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  1. i never said it verified. it busted pretty bad. but to say that the can has been kicked the whole winter is quite disingenuous some saw two significant events in a week… the immediate NYC area isn’t representative of the whole metro region
  2. some places in central NJ got 20” of snow in a week. stop it lmao
  3. yeah, it'll be an uphill battle to get snow, but it's happened before. 1998 and 1983 both had abnormal snowfalls... 1983 had this in the southeast during the last week of March
  4. you can see the resemblance to the patterns before the 2018 and 2023 blocking events. pretty similar stuff
  5. wouldn't shock me to see blocking return in some fashion in mid-late March. a brief reversal of 10mb winds already occurred, and another is expected to occur during the first week of March. the upcoming 500mb pattern fits that of the 2018 and 2023 blocking events quite well, which were also from SSWs. not sure if it means any more winter weather, but it's something to note
  6. it wouldn't shock me to see blocking return in mid to late March. whether that means winter weather or not is a different story, but it wouldn't be surprising at all IMO
  7. look at the decade before with the 33.2" average and you can see why we likely regress to under the ~29" 30-year average this decade
  8. hell, even that favorable pattern in mid-Jan looked like a good Nina configuration. AK ridge with no Aleutian low to be found. along with the historic cold outbreak in the Rockies and Plains. so odd
  9. 1973 was definitely the best match out of those winters, especially given the -PDO. even then, there's still barely any low pressure signature where there should be one. would have made a difference if the blocking had worked out, but it makes sense that we would see one of the biggest medium to long range pattern collapses in recent memory
  10. lol the Aleutian / Gulf of AK low is non-existent. absolutely infuriating. just not even close to the others, even the ones that did torch
  11. PDO definitely has something to do with it, just thought the Nino would be a bigger factor in forcing a +PNA
  12. all of the other super Ninos had at least some kind of persistent low pressure in the GoA or nearby. seems like 1973 was the best fit, but this year still has much less of a signature there
  13. hell, even the great pattern that developed in mid-Jan looked like a blocky Nina pattern. there was a historic cold outbreak in the Rockies, which is not supposed to happen in these borderline super Ninos. something is off this might look like a super Nino on the DJF temp aggregate, but it's like getting a multiple choice answer right without showing work. Dec is the only stretch that behaved like it should have. like where the hell is the low in the GoAK or Aleutians at all? it just doesn't exist on the mean
  14. this is so odd... flat, strong Aleutian high in a super Nino at the end of Feb. even the warm stretches in 1973 and 1983 were warm because of a hyperactive Gulf of AK low, not because of a potent Aleutian ridge
  15. this is positive, no? you'd think you'd keep the extended jet here, but it is poleward into AK... go figure. then it looks negative after, so the retraction makes sense
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