brooklynwx99

I usually don't include volcanic activity in analogs. should I? maybe, but there's already a lot to juggle. credit to those that do it, though

i had 1983-84, not 1982-83... it's pretty low on the list regardless. might not even include it once we get into the fall. only really matches ENSO and not much else, but again, just wanted to cast a wide net and narrow down

RONI for AMJ is -0.2 while the ONI is +0.4, so you can probably lop off half a degree from the ONI going forward. tough to explicitly forecast that, though, as conditions can change as the year goes on

I have some prelim analogs. tried to cast a rather wide net and it'll get whittled down as the summer goes on Going with 2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2016, 2013, 2011, 2010, 2008, 1999, 1998, 1988, 1983. Years in bold are doubly weighted. Overall, looked at ONI/RONI, PDO, QBO, summer 500mb so far, and solar, weighted in that order. Pretty happy with the way these look. Dec has some blocking and a more poleward Aleutian ridge that's often the case in initially east-based Ninas. We then transition to a torch by Feb as the Nina migrates to a more central-based look.

13-14 actually averaged a PDO of -0.68 for DJF 2014. negative, but trending positive and likely not as negative as we'll see this year. 14-15 was the big +PDO winter

I agree that those things are true. my point was that there are other variables that impact winters. saying that weak Ninas just aren't cold and snowy in this climate is a bit reductive

yeah, there will be a winter at some point that's just a parade of juiced cutoff lows exiting the OH Valley, just a matter of when. in the meantime, a lot of BS will have to be endured. I think that's pretty safe to say. we've seen the West get periods of continuous anomalous troughs over the last few years

i don't think it's quite as air tight as this... I agree that it will be more difficult to see cold and snowy winters with -ENSO given the propensity for forcing to plant itself in the MC, though there is always variability 2020-21 was a central based moderate Nina with a RONI slightly more negative than ONI (OND RONI was -1.56 compared to ONI of -1.3). one would think that the year would be a catastrophe, especially given the -PDO, but it was a big time year. the WPAC warm pool was also in place by then

even in 2022-23, NNE (and even parts of CNE) had a pretty torrid February if I remember correctly

I'm not expecting much for the E US this year... the strong -PDO and general progression to a more central-based event are certainly mitigating factors. would be surprised if there was AN snow for NYC, certainly DC. Boston could actually have a decent year as they do in Ninas with that being said, this winter does look to begin east-based, which may make December pretty interesting. I'll start digging into some more concrete analogs over the coming month or so

speaking of stats, I think part of it is also just crushing regression to the mean. there were many winters with big coastals (2014-15 being the prime example) and I think we're crashing back down to offset those years. CC plays a part, of course, but I think stats are just as big of a factor

this has 19-20, not 20-21... summer of 2020 was one of those high ACE years

CSU is now forecasting 230 ACE... this is probably one of the only variables that actually looks good for E US winters. otherwise, slim pickings

the thing with Nina is that you can have that Aleutian ridge break more poleward and give us legit cold air into Canada. Ninos have no such benefit if we do end up with a more east based event, I’ll be a lot more optimistic, as at least we could see the ridging move over AK. as of now, I’m still expecting a pretty lame winter from NYC south. Ninas can be quite fun for you guys, though. especially up by you

haha I mean I am Gen Z. just turned 25 anyway this season does look bad. don't see how this is anything but active. if not hyper