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brooklynwx99

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About brooklynwx99

  • Rank
    Party like it's 1999
  • Birthday 06/18/1999

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KJFK
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Bay Ridge, Brooklyn

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  1. -NAO Coastal Bomb March 1-3, 2018 Disco

    There are intense dynamics here, so common sense and analogs can’t really be used a source of analysis. The omega and saturated column on the 18z NAM is conducive for evaporational cooling and heavy precipitation. The GFS’s thermal profiles are also consistently questionable, and its capabilities in regards to forecasting strong cutoff EC cyclones are not great. Earlier this winter the NAM vastly outperformed the GFS due to its superior handle on dynamics and banding, which were incremental to the development of that system. And yes, I believe (as well as other meteorologists and respected hobbyists) that the 18z NAM supplied a plausible solution that should be taken into account. Throwing out the NAM with basically no scientific analysis is foolish, especially when it has performed well with a major storm a month ago.
  2. March 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

    Sleeping on the second storm because of some OP runs is foolish. Huge signal for a significant storm on the EC. Such a large swath of 0.5" of precip in the NYC metro for a 9 day time lead. I'm feeling good about this one. Saying that this is not a threat because of personal bias is ignorant. Nobody should be taking the OP Euro seriously, but it illustrates the explosive potential of the period and should be noted. That's all.
  3. If you're wondering how a massive -NAO and 50/50 confluent LP pair interact to change storm behavior, the 12z GFS is a great example of that. A lakes cutter (seemingly) is forced SE due to the upper air flow and becomes a ~985mb LP decaying off the coast. There's another situation of a miller B scenario where a system in the OH Valley is forced S of the area and amplifies into another ~985mb LP (post truncation!). The blocking slows down the pattern dramatically. There are huge LP centers in the Atlantic that completely clog up the flow; they occlude and retrograde as they completely cut off from the jet stream. The massive upper level LP S of Greenland barely moves in three days. This allows systems off the EC to have time to amplify and stall. Such a loaded pattern in so many ways. Amazing.
  4. I decided to make a composite of the 500mb anomaly four days away from NYC snowfalls over 15". Unfortunately, I was unable to put the blizzard of 1888 and a couple other storms before 1948. However, the features of the loading patterns before these major snowfalls are quite similar to the pattern that we are about to enter. The two standout features of the pattern are strong west-based Greenland blocking and a deep NE trough. There is a trough off the WC with below normal heights in the Southwest and general high heights in the AO and EPO/WPO regions. These features are closely related to the pattern that will move in during the next week. This is very important and perhaps counterintuitive for some: there is NO +PNA! A western ridge is not necessary with 50/50 confluence along with a strong block. If anything, it would not allow storms to amplify and tap southern moisture. The patterns shown on the GEFS and GEPS are not perfect matches, but they are definitely conducive for a MECS. Most importantly, the most features are there: the massive Greenland block and the 50/50 confluence over the NE. There is also the presence of a NW US trough and low heights over the SW US. There is a stronger Aleutian ridge than the composite, but that still keeps with the theme of higher heights in the EPO/WPO regions. The GEPS has a central US ridge, but it has a bias of overdoing US heights whenever possible, so I am not betting too highly on that. All in all, the pattern that we are about to enter is highly conducive for major snowfall events. The presence of massive high-latitude blocking and 50/50 confluence are the defining features of the pattern, and they will end up driving systems south of the area, as the 12z ECMWF showed earlier. The March 3-11 period is incredibly ripe for a MECS+, so get some sleep now. This is what many posters, including myself, here have driven home for more than a month now: the development of a highly favorable -NAO pattern in the later stages in the winter. Buckle up.
  5. Absolutely classic pattern evolution. The emergence of high heights from the Kara Sea evolves into a -5 sigma NAO block that decays over northern Canada. The lower heights in the Pac NW provide ample shortwaves that are able to slow and amplify due to the blocked, decompressed height field over the E US. The STJ would also be open for business with a flow from the SW US in part of the pattern. There is also a persistent jet stream off the EC, which promotes the development of storm systems off the coast, south of our latitude. This is a KU pattern, no doubt about it. In fact, the decay of the blocking is just as important as the blocking itself, as many of our largest winter storms form when high-latitude ridging weakens. I fully expect a MECS during the first two weeks of March. Get some sleep while you can.
  6. 1/4 Mega Bomb obs.

    This band moving into the NYC metro has strengthened and will pack a punch. Precipitation is backfilling as well into NE PA. Additional accumulations are certain for NYC and east.
  7. 1/4 Mega Bomb obs.

    There are hints of another weaker band forming in NJ and moving east. This would most likely be the metro's last shot at +SN.
  8. 1/4 Mega Bomb obs.

    Best snow growth of the day with +SN continuing to fall. Banding is still present over the NYC metro area with new 35+ DBZ returns popping up.
  9. 1/4 Mega Bomb obs.

    This 500mb setup with a 528 closed LP S of LI will produce every time and it is right now. NEVER underestimate the power of the mid-levels.
  10. 1/4 Mega Bomb obs.

    This is seriously impressive. SN+ just funneling its way into NYC from LI. This is what great mid levels can do. It is absolutely sick under that yellow band. Gusty and SN++.
  11. 1/4 Mega Bomb obs.

    The 500mb LP is south of LI and has massive PVA into the area. Snowfall should really ramp up soon.
  12. Jan 4th 2018 Fish Bomb

    Banding is starting to rotate into the NYC metro. This should start the accumulations. Radar looks immaculate. We’re getting banding while the storm is off OBX! The precip into NE PA is very encouraging as well. That’s what a powerful jet streak can do.
  13. Jan 4th 2018 Fish Bomb

    My God. The jet streak is really starting to work its magic on our already NW LP.
  14. Jan 4th 2018 Fish Bomb

    If this doesn’t get you excited for tomorrow, I don’t know what will. Absolutely epic look.
  15. Jan 4th 2018 Fish Bomb

    The powerful jet streak that has been modeled consistently is beginning to take shape over the NE. Huge amounts of lift are created due to the right entrance region of the jet streak, leading to enhanced precipitation and rapid deepening of the LP.
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