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brooklynwx99

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About brooklynwx99

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    Party like it's 1999
  • Birthday 06/18/1999

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KJFK
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    Male
  • Location:
    Bay Ridge, Brooklyn

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  1. Radar looks good. The highest levels of frontogenesis are aligned with the storm's movement, so there will be almost a training effect with any banding that develops. Looks like the area is line for a solid moderate event. Due to the nature of strong banding, some areas to the NW are experiencing subsidence, like the White Plains area. Now, let's look at some upper level data. This data is taken from the 12z NAM for KLGA. Looks like there will be some decent lift in the atmosphere, so parcels will be able to rise somewhat easily and saturate. The column itself is already very moist, as saturation is occurring at around 600mb. This is conducive for heavier precipitation. Based on the 700mb vorticity on the 18z NAM, it appears that the area of elevated lift will move farther east as the storm progresses up the coast, sweeping through the NYC area and onto LI. This would produce one strong band with high snowfall rates embedded. There also looks to be high levels of frontogenesis aloft, which will also work to bring heavier snowfall rates to the region.
  2. The vort coming out of Canada has a more N-S orientation due to the more meridional orientation of the western ridge. The energy is also more consolidated into one vortmax instead of a broad trough. Should have room to dig; this might be an interesting run. Definitely looks like a potent shortwave coming out of Canada either way.
  3. The vort coming out of Canada has a more N-S orientation due to the more meridional orientation of the western ridge. The energy is also more consolidated into one vortmax instead of a broad trough. Should have room to dig; this might be an interesting run. Definitely looks like a potent shortwave coming out of Canada either way.
  4. It’s called an ensemble. Maybe you should look more carefully. There is also a myriad of evidence that supports blocking in the long range. A -QBO and low solar activity along with a weak -ENSO are all supportive of blocking. Also, blocking in November (which is very likely based on ensemble guidance) dramatically increases blocking chances throughout the winter, especially December. Not sure how you can discount blocking when every ensemble shows a huge signal. You can try though.
  5. You can visualize here how a shortwave from the GoA and a shortwave from the subtropical jet stream can merge. Cold air in injected from Canada via the +PNA, and blocking slows the flow. This provides time for storms to amplify, and it also locks in air masses (in this case, a cold one). The ridge/trough axis combination is quite conducive for east coast cyclogenesis. The blocking itself starts to materialize around the 8 day mark, so it is clearly moving forward in time, and the signal all the way to 15 days out is incredibly robust. I’m pretty certain we are going to see a level of blocking that hasn’t been present for many years. This looks legit, guys. Buckle up.
  6. The GFS is coming back to reality. Huge trend towards deeper and more negative over the last few runs. Energy ahead of the trough is also more powerful and N-S oriented. These changes manifest themselves as a stronger LP and heavier rains, particularly over the NYC metro and E NY.
  7. You can see how the steering currents in the W Atlantic force the storm north. This is due to the combination of the trough in the eastern US and the WAR. As the trough becomes negatively tilted, Irma has nowhere to go except for NW, right into the eastern US coast. With this being said, it will still take about a week for the track of Irma to be more well defined. All options are on the table at this point: a strike to the east coast (Florida to Maine), a fish storm, or possibly even a GOM storm. It's too early to know, as the CONUS pattern may become completely different as next week rolls on. With this being said, the risk for a US landfall is much higher than normal at this point in time. Pay attention to this one for sure.
  8. Wow. Eventual full capture over Maine per 00z GFS. Just another possible outcome on the table.
  9. I actually just started my education at Penn State towards a degree in atmospheric science. The weather has always been a hobby for me, and I've learned a lot by myself and through this forum (and similar weather forums). My attitude was that it would be awesome to formally learn about something that has always fascinated me, and you might feel the same way. If you do, then try giving it a shot. I know that math and physics are going to be challenging, so if you're good at those subjects and enjoy them you should also enjoy learning about the weather in college. Just my two cents.
  10. Pretty ominous... Looks to be some bowing towards NJ and south too.
  11. I think that the banding will be a nowcast situation, as they are usually really fickle. The only way to know if you'll get hit is to see it moving over you. But seeing models have it gives the banding a higher probability.
  12. One of the reasons for the NAM's high precip totals is a small band of high VVs that pivots over the area. If this occurs, then high snowfall can happen, but this type of banding is very difficult to predict. You can only be sure of its occurrence if the banding is developing right over your head. One of the better things about this setup is the influence from a developing coastal instead of a pure Norlun trough. Be wary (the majority of you already are).
  13. Both the NAM and GFS agree on the idea of decent lift in the area. The forecast on the GFS is more favorable, however, as it concentrates VVs in the DGZ, unlike the NAM. The only problem I see are BL temps, but the timing of this snowfall may aid in that department. The RGEM is a good example of this, as the surface steadily cools to below 0C, flipping NYC to snow.
  14. It was because the 700mb low was in an unfavorable position. Since it was west of NYC, the 700mb layer was flooded with warmth, creating sleet.