Wintrest

This is ludicrous. Agree or disagree. Don’t disparage. Wtf man.

Say what you’re actually thinking.

Those balloons matter, and their absence is notable in forecast accuracy. However, the implication that their absence is a primary contributor behind lacking forecast accuracy should be revisited.

Glorious in N. Arlington. It’s been steady for at least 30 min, and dumping for the last 15. Heaviest of this particular storm right now. When clean gutters can’t handle the intensity, you’ve generally got a good thing… especially if you grow food. The intensity died down tremendously while writing that post - gutters functioning as intended. Hope for many more of these events. I prefer an inch over a few hours vs. over two days.

Gunnar never extended past the elbow in the attempt to tag. He likely thought it was a non issue and he’d get the call. Not excusing poor officiating, but the more this guy is thrown to adversity, the better for the team in the long run.

Solid B on the winter precip front. Depending on scale we’re talking 86/87 out of 100. Temps were simply phenomenal, and that started early on. If the dynamics of the late Jan storm were just a bit different, this winter would have earned a solid A in my book. In terms of winter weather as a whole, at least in northern VA, I say A-.

What is your gut feeling? The models are what they are. Some of this goes to straight historical knowledge. Genuinely curious as to your thoughts of the outcome at this juncture… what is your current read, if you had to give it? @TSSN+

Thanks for your technical analysis!

Not the most encouraging trend. To note, there does not appear to be great member agreement on the low placement. AI EPS agreement is much closer to the coast, with a few major outliers way far out to sea skewing the group.

LOUD precip at East Falls, really noticeable change in the last 15 minutes. Very impressive rates.

What is it seeing that makes it want to cut the northern edge precip down so much? Seems like this was a bigger drop than just noise. I see the answer above. Thanks, @Terpeast

Impacts… “slippery road conditions…” NWS doesn’t want to be caught with their pants on the ground.

This makes sense. If it weren’t for… threats/possibilities… like these, and potential tracking of such, I’m not sure this forum would have the life it still does. Any hope of winter weather gets me pumped, and every dash is a dagger. I feel like a junkie. True to form, I keep coming back. That said, this place is an alternative to the mainstream, and given many of the posts, one that you can learn something from. Some posts are leaning social media-esque, but what can you reasonably expect these days? Same posters spout legit knowledge on the board in the next post, so the value is clear. I recall lurking in the 2009-2010 winter, and yeah it’s a different landscape, but with much of the same crowd. Perhaps the point about thread creation is legit, but we’ve been in a shitty long term pattern that we still do not understand for a good while. I feel that there will be a turning point at which time some decent winter weather returns to the Mid-Atlantic, and hopefully that doesn’t take too much longer. Climate is like that, until it isn’t. It’s exciting to see the short term changes though, and that’s why I still enjoy his place.

What are the years of January MECS/HCES that were forecast 5+ days, compared to those that came together T-Minus 72 hours. Starting timeframe is 1978. What were the biggest surprises during that time?

Well said. This is just the start! The number of unseen/not-considered data points in forecasting is mind boggling, especially in the 3-5 day range (particularly with focus on energetic systems). We know the info is clearly there, thought what it is and its relevancy is another thing. I’m very excited to see what this will contribute to forecasting in both the short and long(er) term.