Jebman

Some of Larry Cosgrove's latest thoughts concerning the upcoming EPIC snow/cold Winter of 2021-2022! https://groups.google.com/g/weatheramerica/c/ADgWeB2FI_E At some point, another large, powerful storm like Ida or Larry is going to crack the subtropical high. I would suspect that such a feature would be derived from the African ITCZ family, with two destination threats: the islands rimming the Caribbean Sea and/or the Eastern Seaboard. Using the model ensemble packages as a guide, the last week in September and the first 20-15 days in October would be the target zone. Given the fact that we keep seeing interaction with frontal structures, rather than a "sweep out" function, I am very concerned for the area from Florida to New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, back into Appalachia. All of those 1950s analogs scaled up in intensity with warmer oceanic and atmospheric regimes may prove quite bothersome for the eastern quarter of North America. Keep your eyes on Russia and the Arctic Circle. I am seeing a tendency for closed low or vortex formation in Siberia. If snow and cold start to pile up in that vicinity, ridging will likely follow around the North Pole. That is a negative Arctic Oscillation (-AO) signature. And if the Equatorial Moisture Axis feeding the current Mexican disturbance holds (like it did in 2007-08, any storms in the percolating jet stream along the middle latitudes is going to get juiced in a hurry. It is too early to make a definitive call for the winter, but I will tell you this: there are many choice ingredients being mixed into the DJFM soup!

JEBMAN RED ALERT, for potentially heavy rains over the Mid Atlantic / Washington Metropolitan Region. You guys just keep right on piling it up! This, is what is gonna happen this winter, only then it will be SNOW. ...Update to include the Washington Metro area/portions of northern Virginia into the Flash Flood Watch. The previous discussion follows... An upper-level trough will continue to dig over the Great Lakes tonight while a cold front (currently over western Maryland) moves into the area from the northwest. A southerly flow has caused an unstable atmosphere with the latest mesoanalysis showing around 1500-2500 MLCAPE near/east of the Blue Ridge and Catoctin Mountains. Convergence near the Blue Ridge and Catoctin Mountains is increasing in response to the approaching cold front from the northwest and an outflow boundary that was seen on KLWX radar moving southeast to northwest earlier this evening. At the same time, deep layer shear and low-level shear are increasing in response to the digging trough and falling heights. Therefore, it is likely that showers and heavier thunderstorms will develop near the Blue Ridge and Catoctin Mountains of northern VA and north-central Maryland this evening, before slowly propagating southeast. A few severe storms are possible due to the instability and shear, with damaging winds being the primary threat. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for portions of the eastern WV panhandle, central MD, portions of northern VA, and the Washington Metro area. Also, with increasing moisture and a shear vector nearly parallel to the approaching cold front, this suggests that heavy rainfall from thunderstorms may train over any particular area before the cold pool eventually takes over. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for central and northeastern MD as well as northern Virginia and the Washington Metro area where confidence is highest for the potential of training convection and Flash Flood Guidance is lower. The stronger convection will shift toward southern MD overnight, but more showers will likely persist as the upper-level trough approaches and large scale lift ensues due to the right entrance of the upper-level jet strengthening overhead and the cold front still nearby.

Oct 30 2015? Buda got 17 inches and Wimberley got 26 inches, that was the day I got my new laptop lol. BAD, BAD flooding in south central Texas. I didnt live down here yet, but I was down in Buda for 8 months in 2015 to get all my teeth removed lol.

Love this vid shot in Houma during Ida!

FIXED.

I have heard of their wild temperature swings. I was upset about the mild weather because all I ever wanted, was the snow we got then more snow on top of it!

I dont think FL will ever have a tsunami. Here is another good video, some surge in this one during Hurricane Delta, tho it might be freshwater flooding

I dont mind a good strong hurricane, as long as it hits, say, Miami Florida. Chasers always chase them then I get to kick back and watch the storm to my heart's content on YouTube. Bring it ON!

We got another inch and a half of rain yesterday at 2pm. That brings us to 40.6 inches on the year and 8.3 inches of rain for August. August here is usually very dry and very hot, day after day of 103 degrees and clear blue skies with hardly any clouds. Not so this year, lots clouds and regular rains, kind of like what we see here in May. In May, we got 16-18 inches of rain.

I already love the March 2011 vids about Japan, and especially the Christmas 2004 videos about the incredible Thailand tsunami! Kesennuma tsunami, that went right up the Okawa River! The power of that black water! Wow wow wow wow! What can I say?

This is a good one. Listen to that howl and roar!

You gotta admit the power, the ROAR, the incredible energy of a well developed Cane! Especially when you are safe about 769 feet above sea level LOL like me! I mean, I'm crazy about hurricanes but I dont place myself in danger lol! Its so damned addictive! I'm addicted and I know I'm addicted! Check THIS one out! Wow man, LIVE 28 foot storm surge! Wow wow!

I have got a confession. I know I am 100% safe from hurricanes here in south central Texas. I know for a fact that I will never actually be in a hurricane as long as I stay in my safe city, Buda, Texas. The confession I have is that I am absolutely ADDICTED to hurricane chaser YouTube vids. I adore Hurricane Matthew in 2018. Mexico City, I love the violence and the ROAR of that beautiful wind! I love the chaser having to DRIVE thru the STORM SURGE! WHAT A FRACKIN' RUSH!!!!!!!! I am so safe here. I can kick back and watch those vids in complete safety, and I absolutely yearn for more and more and more and more hurricane videos and secretly hope for a scary indomitable 200 mph sustained Gulf Coast Hurricane, because I know those highly addicted storm chasers will get me my prized hurricane vid, in which I'll get to see STORM SURGE! All from the safety and comfort of my favorite kick-back chair! I am so blessed! Nothing can possibly get to me in the landlocked fastness of Central Texas! The best hurricane of all would be a monster 230 mph Cat 5 with gusts to 310mph behemoth slow mover, buzzsawing hell out of the Coast while storm chasers go completely CRAZY about it as they position and reposition themselves, get out of their well-equipped storm chase vehicles and get all excited and gesticulate at the fast moving threatening black clouds as the cameras are rollin' and I get to enjoy so many videos for all-time! It slowly moves inland then stalls and is so damned slow about decaying lol, and feet of fresh rain pile up while I enjoy the entire thing! Its amazing the way chasers will recall past storms, reciting many different years that 'Canes hit a location! Its very interesting! Harvey was so fun! All that deep flooding! People frantically twittering for help while the water rose VISIBLY in kitchens! I absolutely adore global warming, love the oceans full of fervent heat! Imagine the sea level rise! Imagine entire coastal cities having to be relocated! Imagine hurricanes so bad that 50 foot storm surge becomes routine! Imagine the excitement of 4 foot rains becoming routine! Man I loved that Hurricane Michael Mexico City video so much! I have happily watched it hundreds of times! I guess I am now the Hurricane Man, instead of the snow shoveling man. I leave you with this beautiful video, my personal favorite.

Dont rely on NWS radars. Get myRadar! Its free and looks great! I use it all the time! Sorry NWS, no disrespect intended to you, but I found a better radar!

We've gotta try!