Weather Will

WB latest GEFS extended and control…still dreaming of a cold, stormy pattern before Christmas.

WB 6Z GFS run is interesting for the early next week storm. Last year we could never get anything to trend in the right direction. We will find out this week if we can get something to break our way…

Looking at the MJO plots, looks like we slide into Phase 7 which is more favorable after the first week of December. So hopefully the ensembles will reflect a colder and stormier look after that timeframe. Extended WB GEFS still holds out hope for some snow in December.

Euro definitely keeps me interested in the period next weekend although it is blowing up a different shortwave from GFS. Lots to watch over the next week….at least there is some cold air in the Northern Hemisphere to give us some chances….

WB 12Z GFS…. Toss the 6Z. Week of December 6 still needs to be watched.

WB 6z GEFS….P25 please…Day 9-10 storm has been on the models for a couple of days now. Something to watch…

WB 6Z GEFS has a few bulls eyes to our south, interesting couple of weeks ahead before the December thaw…

WB 6Z GFS…a Happy and Peaceful Thanksgiving to all!

Last year, the MJO did not cooperate….this year maybe phase 7 by the end of the first week of December can’t hurt our chances for some cold and stormy weather as others have been saying.

I will take the appetizer this weekend, and a main course next….(WB 6z GFS).

Let’s see if it is there on the next run!!!

WB 12Z EURO….. little clipper action under Day 7.

If you look at the GFS extended verbatim, the targeted period is after the fifteenth. There will be a five day milder stretch before that. Before the end of December, based on many of forecasts I have seen for December, I will be very disappointed if there is not a widespread significant event, 2-4; 3-6 inch event. But we have to be realistic here, no one is calling for above normal snowfall this year, and when was the last blizzard in December??? Getting even a few inches east of the mountains in December would be a big deal based on my 50 years of living in the DMV.

WB latest extended GEFS….Merry Christmas.

WB 12Z GEFS and EPS for today is not a blowtorch