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About HighStakes

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    Manchester, MD

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  1. At the very least this era was without long range models and 15 day ensembles so you didn't know how bad it would be or how bleak chances we're. A kinda weather innocence and naivety. There were so many bad bust because of the lack of available data. How many times did we expect a decent storm and got zilch.
  2. Great example bringing up the Feb. 2006 storm. Tremendous deform band. This storm demonstrates how getting into the CCB band can be a serious game changer and produce big time totals. I got 16 in Reisterstown. There were a few other spotters close by that measured 18. I believe Randallstown got 20 and like you said Columbia was 20-22. The storm was really slow to get going. When the first flakes started to fall most areas where well above freezing. Snow was rather light for most of the afternoon and didnt really start accumulating nicely until early evening. Even then rates never really got any better than moderate. Local mets didnt pick up on the deform potential and during the 11 o'clock news they pretty much thought the storm would wind down by 2 or 3 a.m. with maybe a couple more inches to come. I remember being exhausted and fell a sleep around 12:30 a.m. We had around 6 maybe 7 on the ground at that time. I woke up roughly 3 hours later. When I looked out the window I was shocked. S++. Easily 2-3 inches per hour. 10-12 inches fell in the area in just a 4-5 hour period. The deform band took this otherwise run of the mill decent type snowstorm and made it truly awesome. Had it been colder following the storm we would all remember it more fondly. On the other side of the spectrum you have several storms where the deform band underachieved and kept what could've been great storms rather pedestrian. The 2 late Feb. storms in 2005 come to mind. Classic Miller A's that both should've been 6-12 areawide ended up under producing only barely hitting low end warning criteria in most spots.
  3. I think PSU is on a mission to will us an event like that one. He references it quite frequently.
  4. The surprise clipper on the Tuesday after the blizzard. Pulled off an un expected 4-5 inches. Not your traditional clipper if memory serves. Kind of an upper air disturbance that enhanced over our region. There were no calls for more than an inch or so I believe. Snowed for most of the day with temps in the 20's. Nothing like snow on snow and then tracking another snow that would hit 3 days later.
  5. He must be talking about the January storm alone. No way 4.8 was the seasonal total.
  6. A seasoned veteran of your caliber making a mistake like this.
  7. It also helped to be located more west with those 98 storms which could be the case this weekend also. If we lived in the Catoctins or higher elevations in Washington county I would feel pretty good. As it stands now we're definitely in the game and the cities have a puncher's chance.
  8. My first thought was 1998 when this thing started looking like a close call. I don't think the temps will as bad as the storms in 1998 with this one. I know the antecedent airmass were dealing is not good but in 1998 they were really bad.
  9. It is nasty. Currently getting a heavy sleet/zr mix. 28.
  10. Nothing going on here. Only got the lightest of dustings earlier.
  11. Then 2 drinks for every EPS probability map he posts that shows the red nowhere near us.
  12. Snow shower rolling through now.
  13. GFS is a tiny bit more chilly than the Euro for next weeks temps. Lol.
  14. You are on a roll today. Great job.
  15. The cards are lining up for what will most likely be a typical winter for our region. It will snow, just not nearly as much as we want most likely. Stop acting like we live in Watertown NY.