RodneyS

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -0.3 0.1 -0.5 -0.5 0.0 0.8 -0.4 -2.1 0.7 98 96 95 96 96 102 99 117 92

May 2023 provided a sharp contrast to the prior four months at DCA, averaging just 65.0 degrees -- tied for 75th all-time warmest May in DC history and 2.2 degrees below the 1991-2020 normal. As a result, January-May 2023 dropped to the second warmest 5-month (151-day) start to a calendar year in DC history, at 53.7 degrees -- falling behind January-May 2012 (152 days) at 54.4 degrees.

April 2023 averaged 62.1 degrees at DCA, tied for third warmest April in DC history. Moreover, January-April 2023 is the warmest 4-month (120-day) start to a calendar year in DC history, at 50.8 degrees-- surpassing 2017 (also 120 days) at 50.2 degrees and 2012 (121 days) at 50.1 degrees.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAh _ DEN _ PhX _ SEA -2.1 -0.9 -0.2 -3.9 -1.7 1.2 0.9 -1.2 -0.7

I did have to update the numbers on February 1st, but since the snowfall at each airport remained below what every contestant had forecast, the relative outcome did not change one iota after the update.

Yes, January 2018 featured a lengthy arctic outbreak and it occurred during a Weak La Nina. January 4-7, 2018 at DCA featured a temperature range of 27/8. The four airports received 47.5 inches of snow that season, as compared with 48.1 inches durng the Moderate La Nina winter of 2021-22.

You're correct about the lack of precipitation -- just 9.19 inches at DCA during December 2022-March 2023, as opposed to 11.59 during December 2019-March 2020. December 2019 did not actually feature a true arctic outbreak, but the coldest day of the 2019-2020 winter season at DCA was on December 19, 2019, with a temperature range of 35/22. In contrast December 24, 2022 did feature a true arctic outbreak, with a DCA temperature range of 22/9.

You're welcome, and I'm sure that after your success the last two snow seasons, folks here will pay careful attention to your 2023-24 forecast.

I'm happy that this year's trophy is visible again -- maybe someone played an April Fool's joke on me.

See if this works:

If it's not as busy next year, it will be because of a complete shutout. Regarding the trophy, it loaded for me until I lost power at my home about two hours ago -- it is no longer loading. Perhaps a computer guru can fix. It should read the same as last year's trophy shown below, except the last two lines should be: 2022-23 Snowfall Contest/Little Village Wx

Indeed, but the previous record for lowest composite snowfall at the four major Mid-Atlantic airports that we use in this contest occurred just three years ago, during the ENSO-neutral winter season of 2019-20. That season, the composite snow total was 6.8 inches, comprised of 1.8 at BWI, 0.6 at DCA, 2.9 at IAD, and 1.5 at RIC. By the way, had history repeated itself and those same totals occurred this season, the order of finish in our contest would have been unchanged, although Little Village Wx would have had a negative departure at RIC. However, he would still have won handily, with a a total departure of 9.2 vs 15.7 for runner-up PrinceFrederickWx.

And your troll forecast edged out LIttle Village Wx by half a point! Of course, if anyone had done the Super Troll forecast of all zeroes, s/he would have been a runaway winner. Regarding February 1st, I have mixed feelings -- I did experience the excitement of sweeping away the snow on top of my car that morning, even if I did not experience the excitement of lifting a snow shovel.

Did you hear that the world's most accurate weather model is forecasting a foot of snow on Easter at all Mid-Atlantic airports? . . . No, I did not hear that either -- April Fools'. Like many others, I was not anticipating a banner 2022-23 snow season, but just 0.4 inches at Dulles? In 2011-12, we had more snow than that in October, and the previous low seasonal record holder at IAD was 1972-73, at 2.2 inches. And BWI even managed to undercut IAD this season, with 0.2 inches, breaking the all-time low Baltimore record of 0.7 inches set in 1949-50. RIC could not go lower than zero measurable snow, but did manage to tie 1918-19 with only a trace. That left DCA as the only one of our four airports where the low snow record was not at least tied, as the 0.4 inches recorded there was enough to place third lowest in DC history, leaving 1972-73 and 1997-98 as the co-record holders at 0.1 inches. Little Village Wx, who narrowly missed winning this contest last snow season, left no doubt about it this season. He shrewdly lowered his forecast from a year ago, although -- like everyone else -- he still went too high at every airport. Nonetheless, the writing was on the wall early this season that the lowest forecast overall total would win, as the much ballyhooed December 2022 polar vortex arrived too late to mix more than a tad with a low pressure system that departed the Mid-Atlantic on December 23rd. By late December, temperatures had warmed up, and snow lovers could only shake their heads the rest of the meteorological winter, as the first two months of 2023 brought record warmth. The early morning of February 1st was the only thing that kept the Snow Gods from pitching a shutout in the Mid-Atlantic. Our long-term administrator PrinceFrederickWx held out hope that a seasonably cool March and a decent storm track could give him the snow he needed to take the lead, but that did not happen, and so he had to settle for runner-up. Congratulations to Little Village Wx, and below is his championship trophy.

March 2023 averaged 49.1 degrees at DCA, 26th warmest March in DC history. However, because March 2012 was the warmest March all-time in DC at 56.8, January-March 2023 is only the second warmest quarterly start to a calendar year, at 47.0 degrees-- January-March 2012 averaged 47.3.