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RodneyS

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About RodneyS

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KIAD
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Oak Hill, VA

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  1. Most of us have complained at some point about rainy days seeming to occur more often on weekends than on weekdays. However, as the Capital Weather Gang recently noted, that has actually been the case this year in this area, assuming that the weekend is defined to include Friday; see https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/05/13/washingtons-wettest-days-history-inches-precipitation-have-fallen-past-year/?utm_term=.2bb2b4bf05c4. Specifically, through the first 19 weeks of 2019 at DCA, there have been 32 weekend days on which measurable precipitation has fallen vs. only 17 weekdays on which measurable precipitation has fallen. Moreover, because there are more weekdays than weekend days, the percentage of weekend days that have received measurable precipitation is 56% (32 of 57 days) vs. only 22% for weekdays (17 of 76 days). I just ran a two-tailed T-Test to determine the probability of this pattern occurring randomly, and it works out to be about one chance in 730. So, is this rainy weekend pattern here just a fluke, or is there more to it than that?
  2. RodneyS

    Our region's extreme run

    You're right that last April was relatively cool at DCA -- 54.9 degree average, which was 1.9 degrees below the 1981-2010 normal, and 7.5 degrees cooler than this year.
  3. RodneyS

    Our region's extreme run

    April 2019 averaged 62.4 degrees at DCA, second all-time in DC to the 63.8 recorded in April 2017. However, precipitation was only 2.24 inches -- the first below normal month at DCA since October 2018.
  4. DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 3.2 0.0 -1.0 -1.5 3.1 1.1 -2.1 0.0 2.7 99 98 96 95 99 101 98 116 92
  5. RodneyS

    Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

    Congratulations to Olaf for his razor-thin victory over Stormpc, and many thanks to PFDKWx and Roger for doing the heavy lifting. As of late February, this contest could have gone a dozen different ways, as many pre-season forecasts were for a snowy March. However, the Snow Gods had other ideas, as they usually do.
  6. RodneyS

    Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

    Yep, the Fat Lady has sung for all contestants except Stormpc, and even for him, she's warming up in the bullpen. However, since this is the Mid-Atlantic -- i.e. Nats' -- bullpen, it's not quite over, even with an 10-run lead in the 9th inning.
  7. RodneyS

    March snowfall predictions

    This appears to be the winner, with the following departures: IAD 0.9, DCA 0.1, BWI 0.8, and RIC 0.0; for a total departure of only 1.8".
  8. RodneyS

    Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

    I'm sure that Stormpc is hoping that another 0.1" can be found for RIC. In my case, I now need at least 1.8" at BWI, which has never happened there this late in the season. However, prior to BWI, there were a few Baltimore snowstorms during April 3-11 that exceeded that total. The big one was a mere 125 years ago -- April 10-11, 1894, when a two-day storm produced five inches.
  9. DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.9 1.9 2.0 0.9 1.7 0.7 1.1 1.8 1.5 
  10. RodneyS

    Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

    And I can still win with the first 1.9" or better April snow event in Baltimore since 1924, provided that IAD gets no more than 1.9".
  11. RodneyS

    Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

    A faint ray of hope for Stormpc: The last weak El Nino winter before this one was 2006-07. That season an inch of snow fell at RIC on April 7, 2007. On that same day, DCA received 0.4", and IAD and BWI each received 0.2". So, that combination, or merely 0.1" at RIC with no measurable snow at DCA, would do it for him. For the rest of us, we need a miracle!
  12. RodneyS

    Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

    Also, if there are 0.4 inches or more at DCA, Stormpc could still take the lead with 1.7-1.8 inches at BWI. But if BWI reaches 1.9 inches, he's out, unless there is more snow at RIC. So for Stormpc's best chance of winning, he does not want any more snow at DCA and little at BWI, which raises an interesting point about yesterday's snow at DCA. It was officially a trace, but I'm thinking it could have easily been 0.1 inches, depending on the measurement technique. According to https://www.weather.gov/gsp/snow -- Snow often melts as it lands. If snow continually melts as it lands, and the accumulation never reaches 0.1 inches on your measuring surface, snowfall should be recorded as a trace (T) and record in your remarks that the "snow melted as it landed." So, evidently the snow never reached 0.1 inches at DCA because it "melted as it landed."
  13. RodneyS

    Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

    It appears the key thing for you is to have IAD come in under 2.5 inches for the rest of the snow season. If it receives that much or more, Bob Chill would catch you. In my case, I need IAD to come in under two inches, with BWI picking up at least 1.9 inches.
  14. RodneyS

    Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

    I'll settle for the 2.9" at BWI, provided that IAD and DCA get very little. (I'm assuming that Richmond is done.) For example, 2.9" at BWI combined with 2.3" at IAD and 0.1" at DCA allows me to take the lead. However, if it's 2.9" at BWI combined with 2.4" at IAD, I'm out, and Bob Chill would take the lead, provided that DCA gets less than 0.3". But if it's 2.9" at BWI combined with 2.4" at IAD and 0.3" or more at DCA, you take the lead. Needless to say, there are countless other far-fetched possibilities that keep most other contestants alive, such as a late March Mid-Atlantic storm similar to the March 29, 1942 (Palm Sunday that year) storm; see https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-xpm-1992-03-23-1992083144-story.html
  15. RodneyS

    Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

    If Sterling revises the totals enough, you can still win it. Otherwise, it looks as if you could finish 2nd, behind Weather53 by only 0.3, if you nail BWI.
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