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RodneyS

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About RodneyS

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KIAD
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Oak Hill, VA

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  1. RodneyS

    Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

    Also, if there are 0.4 inches or more at DCA, Stormpc could still take the lead with 1.7-1.8 inches at BWI. But if BWI reaches 1.9 inches, he's out, unless there is more snow at RIC. So for Stormpc's best chance of winning, he does not want any more snow at DCA and little at BWI, which raises an interesting point about yesterday's snow at DCA. It was officially a trace, but I'm thinking it could have easily been 0.1 inches, depending on the measurement technique. According to https://www.weather.gov/gsp/snow -- Snow often melts as it lands. If snow continually melts as it lands, and the accumulation never reaches 0.1 inches on your measuring surface, snowfall should be recorded as a trace (T) and record in your remarks that the "snow melted as it landed." So, evidently the snow never reached 0.1 inches at DCA because it "melted as it landed."
  2. RodneyS

    Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

    It appears the key thing for you is to have IAD come in under 2.5 inches for the rest of the snow season. If it receives that much or more, Bob Chill would catch you. In my case, I need IAD to come in under two inches, with BWI picking up at least 1.9 inches.
  3. RodneyS

    Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

    I'll settle for the 2.9" at BWI, provided that IAD and DCA get very little. (I'm assuming that Richmond is done.) For example, 2.9" at BWI combined with 2.3" at IAD and 0.1" at DCA allows me to take the lead. However, if it's 2.9" at BWI combined with 2.4" at IAD, I'm out, and Bob Chill would take the lead, provided that DCA gets less than 0.3". But if it's 2.9" at BWI combined with 2.4" at IAD and 0.3" or more at DCA, you take the lead. Needless to say, there are countless other far-fetched possibilities that keep most other contestants alive, such as a late March Mid-Atlantic storm similar to the March 29, 1942 (Palm Sunday that year) storm; see https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-xpm-1992-03-23-1992083144-story.html
  4. RodneyS

    Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

    If Sterling revises the totals enough, you can still win it. Otherwise, it looks as if you could finish 2nd, behind Weather53 by only 0.3, if you nail BWI.
  5. RodneyS

    Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

    FYI, yesterday's BWI snow total has been revised from 2.3 to 2.2 inches. For most of us, our overall departure is now 0.1 higher, and so there is no relative change, but MN Transplant now has BWI on the nose. See https://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=lwx
  6. RodneyS

    Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

    Today's storm was a thread-the-needle masterpiece for me. I still need at least 2.2 inches at BWI and no more than 2.9 inches at IAD, but that's more doable than what I needed prior to today, which was at least 4.4 inches at BWI and no more than 3.5 inches at IAD.
  7. DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -1.8 -1.5 -1.1 -4.9 -0.7 -0.4 -4.6 -0.1 -0.8
  8. RodneyS

    Our region's extreme run

    I had not noticed that, but had noticed that overall that snowstorm tied for 23rd on the all-time DC list (with February 22-23, 1987). Also, the 10.6 inches received at Dulles in that storm was 16th all-time there, displacing the 10.3 inches that fell at Dulles during the infamous (poorly-forecast) 10.3-inch snowstorm of January 25, 2000.
  9. RodneyS

    March snowfall predictions

    IAD 1.0” DCA 0.5” BWI 1.5” RIC 0.0” MBY 0.9"
  10. RodneyS

    Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

    Since ENSO events began to be tracked during the winter of 1949-50, weak El Ninos have averaged 2.6 inches of snow at DCA during March and April, with the range being a trace on three occasions to 8.3 inches in 1978 (12 prior weak El Ninos).
  11. RodneyS

    Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

    I think the DCA and RIC parts are plausible. The BWI and IAD parts -- not so much, particularly regarding the greater amount of snow that has to fall at BWI in a moderate area-wide event (or events). However, at this point in the snow season, almost everyone who is not mathematically eliminated can cling to a thin strand of hope, so that's what I'll do.
  12. RodneyS

    Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

    I believe I could theoretically win with 4.4" at BWI, assuming DCA gets shut out and RIC gets no more than 0.2". However, if BWI gets 4.4" or more, isn't it very likely that IAD will get at least 3.6"? And if that happens, Bob Chill will close me out. So I have to thread the needle in a very unlikely manner. As our President might tweet: SAD!
  13. RodneyS

    Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

    I think the odds are better than 50-50 that either Stormpc, olafminesaw, or Bob Chill wins. I'm in the sad position of "so near, and yet so far."
  14. RodneyS

    February 19-21 snowfall contest

    BWI: 4.1” IAD: 3.4” DCA: 1.3” RIC: 0.3” Tie: 0.85”
  15. RodneyS

    Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

    In my case, you're correct -- my snow forecasts were based significantly on historical averages for weak El Nino winters.
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