MN Transplant

2.38” total. Gusty with a few dead branches down. Fall!

I think you might dagger our see-saw precip battle with this one.

1.61” on the day. Ho-hum in 2018.

Instantaneous rain rates of 4.5"/hr at home right now. Almost 0.5" after 0.45" this morning.

Total weenie radar wish-casting here, but if you look at the 17z HRRR it has Charlottesville as the cutoff of the heavier precip amounts. On radar, the northern band seems like it will set up north of there.

Forget Michael, look at that beautiful dry air advection. (image courtesy of College of Dupage)

HRRR and 3km NAM putting up a period of gusts in the 40s to maybe 50 overnight tonight.

I'm practically giddy when I loop the PW and DP maps.

It is likely the surface. Different providers can display it as they wish, but I don’t know why they wouldn’t choose for it to be that way.

I'm worried about the smaller towns away from the coast. The Altha's, Alford's, and Marianna's of the world. I'm guessing that most there did not anticipate Cat 3-4 level winds up their way.

Best case scenario for track at this point is for the eastern eyewall to land between Tyndall AFB and Mexico Beach. Still, that is threading a needle and would still put a lot of people in harms' way.

The interesting thing is that several of the models have been all over this. But there is such a history of weakening of northward-moving storms in the Gulf that it seems like the consensus was that the models were just overdoing it per usual. Guess not this time.

DCA +11.8 on October to date.

It would be appropriate if we killed off summer with one last big rainfall.

October precip: 0.00”