MN Transplant

Nothing to bring it west so it is just sitting and waiting for the kicker.

Northern stream trough doesn't look as impressive (at least comparing to 6z, I haven't followed this much). Maria is slower than 6z also.

There is, or used to be, a network of small x-band radars on the west side run by UPR-Mayaguez.

This is where we avoid all the randos in the Tropical thread

I had trouble getting to the Google home page of all things.

Hate to say it, but I hope the HWRF is right on the track. The USVI are already screwed, better to have another Cat 5 landfall there than in PR. Not holding out on any hope for mid-atlantic impacts. We don't even have any good weenie runs out there.

Temperature is good today, but it is sticky. Didn't take long to work up a sweat.

A lot of people were talking about how flat the north part of Cuba was and how it might not affect Irma much, but there is still disrupted inflow and less energy transfer from the surface. That said, Irma has managed to stay on the barrier islands, which is further north than the Euro had it. This should still be a significant landfall for FL, but it won't be an Andrew x10.

I don't trust the surface wind products from any models, really. However, the big problem with Irma is that it is massive. Even with the center over land, it is going to be feeding off of the ocean. So, the inner core will weaken significantly as it moves up the peninsula, but it isn't just going to crash like many others do. It'll be a punch into southern GA, especially in the bands that can bring down some of the winds.

Man, you swing that thing out any further and all of those scary Tampa scenarios come into play. Looks like a tough run for Marco, Naples, Ft. Myers.

In case people aren't familiar with some of the areas on the SW FL coast, this is what Marco Island looks like.

A state of emergency declaration at this point is bureaucratic paper shuffling. And I say that as a bureaucrat.

Some rain. Tuesday looks like a dreary day.

You would not believe the alligator roadkill down there. Not that it needed to be said, but no impacts up here on the 12z GFS. That ship sailed a long time ago.

Marco Island too. Still, puts the worst of it into the parks down there, which is better than downtown Miami.